I am about 30 miles from the coast on the Haiti/DR border. Supposed to fly out of the Northern DR on Friday morning. Bad thing is I am about out of Copenhagen. This could be a major catastrophe.
2017 Hurricane Season
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Last: 6 yr ago by Swarely
HummingbirdSaltalamacchia
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AG
Swarely said:
Just announced that it is a Cat 4. Any Floridian on this thread?
In clermont right now with the in laws. Supposed to stay in Orlando until Saturday though
My mothers family is from key largo. My aunt has a house on the Atlantic side on the water. This could be bad.
Supposed to fly to Destin on Friday. Should I look at canceling that trip?
A full blown Cat 4-5 with a direct hit on a Florida is not common, right?
Usually it weakens over Cuba or some other island... this looks really, really bad for S. Florida.
Usually it weakens over Cuba or some other island... this looks really, really bad for S. Florida.
I would sure as hell make contingency plans. If it stays east, you should be clear.
The more and more I watch this thing the more I believe it's going to be making landfall in the gulf after hitting the tip of florida
Does the H pressure system and front likely deter it from Houston?
I have a gut feeling this is heading for Louisiana
Cold front coming in this week. Should push it east of Texas.
That's what I was thinking. The H pressure should shield TX.... right?
Sweet Christmas
ttha_aggie_09 said:
A full blown Cat 4-5 with a direct hit on a Florida is not common, right?
Usually it weakens over Cuba or some other island... this looks really, really bad for S. Florida.
The last was Andrew wasn't it?
And I think Cat 4/5 hitting anywhere in the US is generally uncommon.
And don't forget about the little guy circled in green...
dlance said:
And don't forget about the little guy circled in green...
This the one that's been kinda chatted about but not given much hope to form?
What would a storm if this magnitude do to the keys
1 model has in goingbinto tx west of Brownsville as a tropical depression.
It's like most people on here just post what they hope or think will happen without taking into account any of the readily available nhc nfs or other data.
The projecting and hypothesizing with little to no empirical data is semi scary and very sad.
If you're going to throw junk against the wall, don't post!
It's like most people on here just post what they hope or think will happen without taking into account any of the readily available nhc nfs or other data.
The projecting and hypothesizing with little to no empirical data is semi scary and very sad.
If you're going to throw junk against the wall, don't post!
Look at the photos from rockport and port aransas. I have friends working cleanup down there and said parts look like a nuclear explosion went off near by. Total devastation
Irish_Man said:
What would a storm if this magnitude do to the keys
Look up the 35 Labor Day hurricane
http://www.katc.com/story/36288042/irma-could-push-category-5-status-tuesdaywednesday
Quote:
A track farther to the west, into the Gulf of Mexico, appears slimmer at this time, but changes could occur, especially if the storm has any interactions with the mountainous areas of Hispaniola and/or Cuba...including some weakening processes, but for now, the storm is forecast to remain a major hurricane as it nears Florida this weekend.
It is officially a category 5.
Jesus...
Yep, just upgraded. Gonna be a beast.
I wonder what kind of turbulence those pilots feel when flying around these beast of a hurricanes?
Haven't flown, but have an old roommate who flies on one of the NOAA P-3s and have met several of the AF mets.
Eyewall can be pretty bad but you know it's coming and it's only about 10 min each time you go through. Eye is supposedly pretty smooth. They have weather radar onboard so they don't just plow through, they can pick and choose (within reason) how they get into the eye.
The 'worst' flights most people say are the low level invest missions, before a storm forms. Rather than being at 10,000ft they're down at 5,000 or so and generally just bouncing around most of the time. That's when people get sick, etc...
Eyewall can be pretty bad but you know it's coming and it's only about 10 min each time you go through. Eye is supposedly pretty smooth. They have weather radar onboard so they don't just plow through, they can pick and choose (within reason) how they get into the eye.
The 'worst' flights most people say are the low level invest missions, before a storm forms. Rather than being at 10,000ft they're down at 5,000 or so and generally just bouncing around most of the time. That's when people get sick, etc...
We're kind of in limbo over here with regard to Irma. Basically ignoring the constant model shifts and going about normal business for another 2 or 3 days. because of the coastline it doesn't take much to move it from 'inconvenience' to 'possible end of the world.'
SCW posted an update on the tropics this morning here.
Quote:
Essentially, Irma will turn to the north when it finds the western edge of this high pressure system. The image below shows the forecast position for Irma on Friday morning, and potential tracks afterward.
Although there has been some westward shift in the track forecast, we expect that this is about to stop. We have very good meteorological reasons to believe that Irma will make a northern turn, and stay out of the western Gulf of Mexico. And while almost nothing is 100 percent guaranteed in forecasting, we urge shell-shocked coastal residents in Texas to not have much concern for Irma.
Quote:
Finally, it is also possible that a tropical storm will develop in the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two, but Wednesday's cold front should keep any effects from that system well away from the greater Houston area. Please continue to focus on recovering from Harveyas it looks like Mother Nature will assist in that regard.
Interesting article from WaPo about Tampa Bay taking a hit from a hurricane. Spoilers: they are fooked
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/health/environment/tampa-bay-climate-change/?utm_term=.455eef30dfd6
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/health/environment/tampa-bay-climate-change/?utm_term=.455eef30dfd6
We're in Gainesville, FL, which is ~50 miles from the Gulf and ~65 miles from the Atlantic. My main concern is keeping our 3-yr old and 5-yr old girls safe. If the storm turns up the Atlantic coastline, we'll be evacuating to a friend's place in Tallahassee. I haven't quite figured out a plan if the storm is projected to ride up the Gulf coast, maybe find a cheap motel somewhere in Alabama or Georgia?
Random Walk said:
1 model has in goingbinto tx west of Brownsville as a tropical depression.
It's like most people on here just post what they hope or think will happen without taking into account any of the readily available nhc nfs or other data.
The projecting and hypothesizing with little to no empirical data is semi scary and very sad.
If you're going to throw junk against the wall, don't post!
When Harvey was in the same area and just a blob of low pressure the models had it not developing. Then when development started the models had it going into Mexico. Then they started shifting up the coast.
Forgive me for not trusting the models when something starts brewing in BoC. And if you think I am wishcasting you can kiss my arse. I can barely friggin' move after spending the last week working on Harvey cleanup.
Models are just models and unless you are 100% trusting and following what they say Random Walk will call you out.
We get it. We aren't trying to panic people. But forecasts wildly change for a reason with these storms, and when something looks like something we've seen in the past, we may mention it.
We get it. We aren't trying to panic people. But forecasts wildly change for a reason with these storms, and when something looks like something we've seen in the past, we may mention it.
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