CC news said 6-8' this morning

Swarely said:

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Any guess on what the storm surge from this is gonna be?

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5-8' depending on location, per local news sources.

Charpie said:

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Go now

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We used to do that, wait til the last minute, run down to board up and grab stuff then shag it.
You make great time headed down, but expect a bumper to bumper mass exodus on the way back. Turtles will be passing you.

What's the expectations for Port A... What will this wind do? Also what will the storm surge likely do in Port A?

saltydog09 said:

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Looks like minimum Cat 1 and a lot showing Cat 2 now

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I'm sure you've already did, but what app is this?

Hurricane Tracker. 3.99 in the Apple Store

Premium said:

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What's the expectations for Port A... What will this wind do? Also what will the storm surge likely do in Port A?

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And here's a link to a really useful interactive map depicting storm surge inundated areas

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/092930.shtml?inundation#contents

Thanks, I'm also wondering about what the "real world" effect of what the winds and surge, as predicted, would actually do to Port A...

This what you're looking for?

Cat 1
Sustained Winds
Types of Damage Due to Hurricane Winds1
74-95 mph
64-82 kt
119-153 km/h
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.

Cat 2
96-110 mph
83-95 kt
154-177 km/h
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.

Cat 3
(major)
111-129 mph
96-112 kt
178-208 km/h
Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.

Cat 4
(major)
130-156 mph
113-136 kt
209-251 km/h
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Cat 5
(major)
157 mph or higher
137 kt or higher
252 km/h or higher
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

MGS said:

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So what's O/U on the number of high water rescues in San Antonio this weekend?

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28 minimum

Took a direct hit from a large category 1/small category 2 when Claudette hit. I wouldn't stick around for anything stronger than that. Lost three large trees in the yard, one of which missed the house by inches. The aftermath was what was terrible though. No power/water for 1 week with atrocious heat/humidity. None of the convenience stores had any gas or water for several days after. To top it off I got to spend the rest of the summer repairing fence lines and cutting up fallen trees around the ranch.

TLDR version:
Don't stick around for anything stronger than a small Cat 2, the storm isn't that bad, it's the after effects that aren't worth sticking around for.

Are there new rainfall maps out?

I live in port a. It's quiet right now. Waves are really low. No wind. The cc schools are waiting to close. Won't tell us yet. I really don't think it's a big deal. The rain worries me more than the wind. We see big winds in the spring every year. The no power and no Ac is what I don't like.

If it happens the way they are saying....all the rain. The storm surge will keep the water from draining and cc will be flooded. That'll be bad. The park road will be flooded as well and they'll be no way to get back here or out so I guess I have to leave.

Actually they just cancelled school as I was typing. Fun day now. Every friend I have is asking me to haul their golf cart today. Lol. Be a long two days and then that thing will go north or way south. The roads are apparently already crowded too. Oh well. It is what it is.

I read yesterday that tamu cc ordered students there to evacuate.

saltydog09 said:

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10am update shows Cat 3 landfall. Winds 115mph

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Link?

I'm not seeing Cat 3 predictions. Link?

Weather Channel

Oh ****.

Recon flight data

Quote:

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WTNT44 KNHC 241455
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Harvey is quickly strengthening, and the cyclone's structure has
improved markedly with the plane reporting a closed 15-20 n mi wide
eye. The flight-level and SFMR winds support an intensity of 55 kt,
but one of the more notable measurements is the central pressure,
which has fallen to 982 mb. With a pressure this low, it is likely
that the winds will respond and increase further, and Harvey
probably isn't too far from becoming a hurricane.

With Harvey now strengthening at a faster rate than indicated in
previous advisories, the intensity forecast has become quite
concerning. Water vapor images indicate that the cyclone's outflow
is expanding--indicative of low shear--and Harvey will be moving
over a warm eddy of high oceanic heat content in the western Gulf of
Mexico in about 24 hours. As a result of these conditions, several
intensity models, including the ICON intensity consensus, are now
explicit showing Harvey reaching major hurricane intensity. What's
more astounding is that some of the SHIPS Rapid Intensification
indices are incredibly high. As an example, the guidance is
indicating a 70 percent chance of Harvey's winds increasing by 45 kt
over the next 36 hours. Based on this guidance, the NHC official
intensity forecast now calls for Harvey to reach major hurricane
strength by 36 hours, before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Aircraft fixes indicate that Harvey has turned toward the north-
northwest, and the initial motion estimate is 340/9 kt. A mid-
level high centered near Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico
should force Harvey toward the northwest later today, with that
trajectory continuing for the next couple of days. By 48 hours,
the cyclone appears to get sandwiched between the same mid-level
high over the Gulf of Mexico and a larger high over the
Intermountain West, which will cause Harvey to slow down
considerably during its approach toward the Texas coast and then
potentially stall just inland on days 3 through 5. Mainly based on
an adjustment of the initial position, the NHC forecast track has
been nudged northeastward on this cycle, but it still lies
relatively close to the TVCN multi-model consensus and the HFIP
Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA).

It is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track
of Harvey, since cycle-to-cycle adjustment are likely. All
locations within the hurricane and storm surge warning areas should
be preparing for the possibility of major hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey has intensified quickly this morning, and is now forecast
to be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing life-threatening storm
surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas coast.
Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by
tonight, as tropical-storm-force winds will first arrive in the
hurricane and storm surge warning areas on Friday.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 10
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov.

3. Life-threatening flooding is expected across much of the Texas
coast from heavy rainfall of 12 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts
as high as 30 inches, from Friday through early next week. Please
refer to products from your local National Weather Service office
and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the
flooding hazard.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location. This map best represents
the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and
warning areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 24.0N 93.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 24.9N 94.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 26.0N 95.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 27.3N 96.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 28.3N 97.0W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
72H 27/1200Z 29.0N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1200Z 28.5N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 29/1200Z 28.5N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

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That pressure just keeps on dropping. Down to 982 now

Thriller said:

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Recon flight data

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Always wanted to be on one of these recon flights.