so with this new update...what should we expect in houston? less rain than we expected?

Where is that redneck hurricane guys video

Houston is on the wet side and with the Highs the way they are, moisture will continue to be pushed there for several days. I imagine 20+ inches over a few days at a minimum.

NHC Recon plans for the next day or so. Sorry about the format.

Link is here: Link

Quote:

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000
NOUS42 KNHC 241508
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1105 AM EDT THU 24 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-085

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 42 FLIGHT TWO -- N0AA 42
A. 25/0600Z A. 25/1800Z
B NOAA2 1609A HARVEY B. NOAA9 1809A HARVEY
C. 25/0200Z C. 25/1400Z
D. 25.5N 94.7W D. 26.6N 95.8W
E. 25/0400Z TO 25/0830Z E. 25/1600Z TO 25/2030Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 72
A. 25/1800Z,2100Z,26/0000Z A. 26/0300Z,0600Z,0900Z
B AFXXX 1909A HARVEY B. AFXXX 2009A HARVEY
C. 25/1545Z C. 26/0045Z
D. 27.6N 95.8W D. 27.6N 96.5W
E. 25/1730Z TO 26/0000Z E. 26/0330Z TO 26/0900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- TEAL 73
A. 26/1200Z,1500Z D. 28.0N 97.0W
B. AFXXX 2109A HARVEY E. 26/1130Z TO 12/1500Z
C. 26/0945Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 26/1800Z NEAR 30N 79W

3. REMARKS:
A. THE GLOBAL HAWK (NA872) PLANS A 24 HR FLIGHT OVER
HARVEY TOMORROW. TAKEOFF TIME SCHEDULED FOR 25/1400Z.
ALTITUDE 55,000 TO 60,000 FT. ANTICIPATING 86 DROPS.
TIME ON STATION 25/1830Z.
B. FLIGHT ONE ABOVE IS AN ADD ON MISSION.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP

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Yeah, the longer it stalls SW of the Houston area, the more rain we get. 20"-30" isn't out of the question over the next 5-7 days.

SO where are they projecting this thing to hit now? I'm in Bee County and need to figure out a direction to send my wife and kid?

So it looks like it hits Port Lavaca (San Antonio Bay / Matagorda Bay) on Saturday morning...then moseys on up to San Antonio over the course of about 24 hours (~ 140 miles)...then backs it on up to about the same area by TUESDAY.

So, if you're anywhere from like I-37 to Hwy71 and south of I-10...you're pretty much in for a really bad few days?

People from Houston to about Temple are in for a good soak, too, huh?

Thriller said:

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Big ass storm right there. Hopefully this thing weakens at some point.

AgsMnn said:

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Where is that redneck hurricane guys video

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Has this dude made a video yet?

AgsMnn said:

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AgsMnn said:

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Where is that redneck hurricane guys video

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Has this dude made a video yet?

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Are you talking about the Canadian special needs guy that screams "warnings" to people?

Those of you with interests on the Texas coast, please take these warnings seriously. Looks like everything from Temple south is gonna get wet. This storm is HUGE. Looks like Gilbert

Levi Cowan's Thursday morning update:

With the way it looked yesterday my brother and parents who live in Victoria were laughing it off and going to ride it out, but after the latest updates, my family is getting out of Victoria now.

Ag_07 said:

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Big issue is that not only is it going to stall, but it looks to be close enough to keep drawing energy from the Gulf and won't fizzle out much at all after landfall.

I'm beginning to see this storm as much more than I did just 12 hours ago.

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Worst case scenario is like a 10,000 year flood event. Catastrophic doesn't even begin to describe the potential danger here. A major hurricane making landfall while still intensifying and then parking itself over land for 5 days just on the coast where it is able to pull water vapor from the ocean in a continual stream is a recipe for an unprecedented weather event.

Just got to cc from port a.

All the boats are gone from the JFK. People are out fishing lol. Guess they're leaving at some point.

People are loading sand in the back of their trucks all along the park road. I guess to make bags. Idk.

Still have a feeling it goes more north. You don't want to wish it on someone else but you don't want it to hit you either. Lose / lose in that deal.

Nothing is boarded up yet in cc. The one thing no one seems to know. The news won't say either is a projected landfall time.

Anyone have that info? Won't hold you to it, but can't find it and the news is no help.

Trying to decide exactly when to hit the road

Blanco Jimenez said:

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SO where are they projecting this thing to hit now? I'm in Bee County and need to figure out a direction to send my wife and kid?

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Belton, temple or Waco. Hotels are probably being booked but I know local churches have plans in place for evacuees.

Edit to add, avoid a Red Cross shelter is at all possible.

somewhere around midnight to 1am Saturday

Reminds me of the formation and strengtheing of the 1900 hurricane that hit Galveston according to the book "Isaac's Storm."

NAP Violator said:

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Ag_07 said:

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Big issue is that not only is it going to stall, but it looks to be close enough to keep drawing energy from the Gulf and won't fizzle out much at all after landfall.

I'm beginning to see this storm as much more than I did just 12 hours ago.

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Worst case scenario is like a 10,000 year flood event. Catastrophic doesn't even begin to describe the potential danger here. A major hurricane making landfall while still intensifying and then parking itself over land for 5 days just on the coast where it is able to pull water vapor from the ocean in a continual stream is a recipe for an unprecedented weather event.

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