About, it depends, there's pretty good consistency at 72.
96 has a fair bit of divergence.
It will depend on the strength/organization, track (obviously), and conditions in front of it.
These models are tracking the center of circulation, so two things; 1. is that the center? It's disorganized and the starting point could be skewed, 2. if it's a big storm you have bands well in advance of the actual landfall.

With all storms virtually anything is possible (that's why hardly anyone with any credibility will go out on a limb, they pick words very carefully, and build in qualifiers).
Frustrating, but there are more variables moving around than a human can process, hell computers cannot even figure them out most times.
So by default we tend to resort back to what Carla did, or what Rita did, or what (God forbid) Claudette did.
Applying past storm outcomes to new systems is a fool's business.
The mathematical probability of two identical storms is along the lines of hitting Lotto (also a fool's business).

This is a sloppy mess, the models are trending North. I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit Louisiana or East and Texas not even get a drop.

While the models are trending North, it's actual path has been dead nuts into the original Cen Amer/Mexico cone.
It could disappear into Central Mexico and Texas not get a drop.

another tick North

carpe vinum said:

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another tick North

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At this rate of change, it might hit Florida

The gulf temperatures going to help it intensify?

I bet the BoC is hot as a bathtub right now, so yes.
Gimme a minute, crownweather.com is good about temp maps and shear maps.
I don't research them lately like I used to.

Definitely plenty warm, but not as hot as I imagined.
The Northern Gulf is hotter.

Question for actual Metxs.

What's this going on in front of the storm formerly known as Harvey, and how will it affect steering?

Not a met so ignore if you want.

That being said, long term forecast for Austin, Tx as of last Monday was for 2 straight weeks of 100+ degree days with no precip.

This tells me mets were forecasting the ridge to stay parked over central Texas for the foreseeable future... hence the initial track of Hank into central Mexico.

Late last week, the forecast started softening. Lower temps and small precip chance towards the end of this week.

My uneducated opinion is that the H wasn't as strong as first anticipated, allowing the turn north.

All true, as with the big blue H over central Mexico also retreating.
I'm talmbout that counter clockwise swirl just North of the mess formerly known as Harvey that is also coming to Texas.

Carry on.

I guess I'll have to go over to storm2k, damn I hate to do that.

All weather forecasts are showing temps receding in the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe and long term is showing upper 80s/very low 90s. Especially beginning Sunday. And lows in the mid to low 70s vs 80 now.

BTW, there's a fatty about to spin off Africa.

carpe vinum said:

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All true, as with the big blue H over central Mexico also retreating.
I'm talmbout that counter clockwise swirl just North of the mess formerly known as Harvey that is also coming to Texas.

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The weather guessers here pointed out a low that was in the western gulf late last week that they said would be here about now. It's a weak low, not a lot of moisture with it, but I'm guessing it's pulling Harvey to us.

Thank you.
I used to get into it, but I'm losing interest outside of watching for personal threat.
Too many irons in the fire lately.

carpe vinum said:

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Question for actual Metxs.

What's this going on in front of the storm formerly known as Harvey, and how will it affect steering?

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It's a strong upper level low and it's moving west and what, as I understand it, is causing the northward move of the former Henry.

</disclaimer: not a met but follow Levi Cowan>

edit: see beginning at 3:15 of this video:

another tick north

Needs to quit tickin... I need some rain in Austin

gillom said:

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Needs to quit tickin... I need some rain in Austin

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As long as it's after my flight lands on Saturday I'm good with that.

carpe vinum said:

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another tick north

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You have my interest.

Wrong thread but Centex has good odds going into the weekend. 3 days of 40-60% chance of rain this time of years hopefully we get one good day

http://www.twcnews.com/tx/austin/weather/7-day-forecast.html#7_day_forecast

Corpus weather man just showed graphic with all but one model showing Mexico landfall.

I bet this thing goes to LA

you may be right, you may be crazy...

Models are tightening on a lower Texas coast landfall.
Whether strengthening or dissipating at landfall remains to be seen.
Regardless of formation properties, big difference on outcome, those temperature maps might come into play.

We have a long awaited fishing trip in Venice Louisiana September 2-4. That figures this stupid storm would veer from the Yucatn to LA within the past 24 hours. Dammit.

Still a bunch of wobbles to go for the wobble watchers.

The GFS is scary. That puts a Cat 3-4 straight into Matagorda.

That's pretty enthusiastic for a hot mess that still has to travel the Yucatan before getting it's act together.
but it's certainly within the realm of possibility.

Corpus weather this morning showing redevelopment into a TS and a lower coast to Mexico landfall. Please hit Baffin and head to Kerrville!

San Antonio is showing Houston.

It's going to miss us.

More reliable path will come after it forms a solid circulation center in the BOC

Definitely one to watch. High prob that someboby is gonna get a storm.