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2017 Hurricane Season

679,868 Views | 3704 Replies | Last: 7 yr ago by Swarely
carpe vinum
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7:56p, 6/19/17
AG
Still early, I (not a Metx) would expect a good bit of model variation the next few days between Florida and Mexico. But the models have tightened up a lot in the past 24 hours and will continue to tighten up. The NHC Cone is the best there is at present.
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ttha_aggie_09
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8:00p, 6/19/17
AG
Looks like Beaumont to Lake Charles is the landing spot on the latest models
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carpe vinum
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8:05p, 6/19/17
AG
If Nawlins gets hit, I've seen models aiming Bret at Nawlins a week later.
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Cromagnum
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9:27p, 6/19/17
AG
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AgsMnn
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9:36p, 6/19/17
AG
Just wish it would stay south.
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ttha_aggie_09
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9:43p, 6/19/17
AG
I would love for some rain from Uvalde across to Houston! I got deer to grow and fawns that are running out of cover.
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SteveBott
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11:04p, 6/19/17
AG
From AO

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ttha_aggie_09
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In reply to SteveBott • 11:07p, 6/19/17
AG
Trending more and more west
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Cromagnum
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In reply to ttha_aggie_09 • 11:19p, 6/19/17
AG
ttha_aggie_09 said:
Trending more and more west


Current thinking is more westward shifts overnight and stronger (more time over water). Some are suggesting minimal hurricane potential.
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ttha_aggie_09
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In reply to Cromagnum • 11:26p, 6/19/17
AG
Interesting... good thing it has been relatively dry to reduce the potential for severe flooding.
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G. hirsutum Ag
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11:48p, 6/19/17
AG
Upper gulf coast could use 2-3" of rain. We don't need 10+. We are sitting on a once in a lifetime cotton crop that if lost many guys would be out of business.
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Brush Country
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6:51a, 6/20/17
I wouldn't completely object to a tropical storm right over corpus.
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G. hirsutum Ag
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In reply to Brush Country • 8:08a, 6/20/17
AG
Those guys are also on a heck of a cotton crop and are harvesting grain right now. A few inches of rain is ok but high winds would be devastating
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Brush Country
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In reply to G. hirsutum Ag • 8:21a, 6/20/17
I don't wish misfortune on anyone, so don't take this the wrong way, but the cotton farmers aren't the only folks in the world. There are a lot of folks who would stand to gain from some rain, even if some wind came with it. It would be nice if it came in a way that benefitted everyone.
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carpe vinum
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10:41a, 6/20/17
AG
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Cromagnum
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11:38a, 6/20/17
AG
Game over.

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Swarely
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1:12p, 6/20/17
Hi, Cindy. Updating OP.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/877220089422073856?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet


Now will this count as a hit on Texas, or should we specify that the eye has to make landfall in the great state for it to count?
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txaggie_08
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In reply to Swarely • 1:45p, 6/20/17
AG
Eye needs to hit Texas. All the rain will be on East side, so if eye hits Louisiana we're mainly just getting some wind from it.
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drummer0415
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In reply to Cromagnum • 2:19p, 6/20/17
AG
Those videos are awesome. I can't help but laugh and feeling extremely awkward at the same time.
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carpe vinum
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2:30p, 6/20/17
AG
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ttha_aggie_09
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In reply to carpe vinum • 2:32p, 6/20/17
carpe vinum
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2:50p, 6/20/17
AG
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Ag_07
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In reply to txaggie_08 • 3:04p, 6/20/17
AG
txaggie_08 said:
Eye needs to hit Texas. All the rain will be on East side, so if eye hits Louisiana we're mainly just getting some wind from it.

Not so fast my friend...

From Berger's latest post

Quote:
Although Cindy has improved its circulation, it has stalled in the Gulf of Mexico a few hundred miles south of Louisiana.


Quote:
We've talked for a couple of days about the asymmetric nature of this stormwith all of the winds and rainfall on the east side. This suggests the effects in Houston will be relatively modest even if the storm makes "landfall" over the Houston-Galveston region. However, the latest runs of the GFS (and especially) the European model show a more symmetrical storm as Cindy nears the Texas coast, wrapping a lot of moisture around its core, and bringing a fair amount of rainfall into the Houston region.

As a result, I'm starting to think the Houston region sees 2 to 4 inches of rain, beginning Wednesday around noon, or later during the afternoon hours, and lasting through Thursday. Moreover, the European model suggests some areas of Houston could see quite a bit more rain than that. I'm not overly confident in that forecast yet, but it is something to watch for in regard to potential flooding. (And we will).

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B-1 83
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4:00p, 6/20/17
AG
Pouring pretty good between Baton Rouge and New Orleans now.
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carpe vinum
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4:01p, 6/20/17
AG
Models are inching West, Houston isn't "safe" yet.
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addickstrapper
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In reply to Ag_07 • 4:02p, 6/20/17
AG
Space City Weather
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jefe95
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4:13p, 6/20/17
AG
Good rain in Atlanta, GA right now
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carpe vinum
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6:59p, 6/20/17
AG
Cindy is pulling moisture from both the Atlantic and EPAC basins. That's fairly uncommon and will be a very wet storm.

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In reply to carpe vinum • 7:15p, 6/20/17
carpe vinum
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In reply to [removed post] • 7:20p, 6/20/17
AG
dlance said:
carpe vinum said:
Models are inching West, Houston isn't "safe" yet.


7PM track moved significantly west.
I've been tied up with a 4 y.o. for a few hours, have the Gov warnings moved, yet, to reflect the models aiming at Gal Bay with increasing regularity?
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Ag_07
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7:29p, 6/20/17
AG
7 pm run

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carpe vinum
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8:05p, 6/20/17
AG
They're finally slowing the estimations down to reflect the stall.
It has been parked most of the day.
Still wondering how that mat affect strength.
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carpe vinum
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8:16p, 6/20/17
AG
Wherever she goes, she may be strengthening at landfall. Hot water.

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Swan Song
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8:58p, 6/20/17
AG
In New Orleans now trying to fly to Houston tomorrow. Raining moderately. Gusting winds. Wish me luck.
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Swarely
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In reply to Swan Song • 9:48p, 6/20/17
Good luck!
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