Still early, I (not a Metx) would expect a good bit of model variation the next few days between Florida and Mexico. But the models have tightened up a lot in the past 24 hours and will continue to tighten up. The NHC Cone is the best there is at present.
2017 Hurricane Season
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Last: 7 yr ago by Swarely
Looks like Beaumont to Lake Charles is the landing spot on the latest models
If Nawlins gets hit, I've seen models aiming Bret at Nawlins a week later.
Just wish it would stay south.
I would love for some rain from Uvalde across to Houston! I got deer to grow and fawns that are running out of cover.
From AO
Trending more and more west
ttha_aggie_09 said:
Trending more and more west
Current thinking is more westward shifts overnight and stronger (more time over water). Some are suggesting minimal hurricane potential.
Interesting... good thing it has been relatively dry to reduce the potential for severe flooding.
Upper gulf coast could use 2-3" of rain. We don't need 10+. We are sitting on a once in a lifetime cotton crop that if lost many guys would be out of business.
I wouldn't completely object to a tropical storm right over corpus.
Those guys are also on a heck of a cotton crop and are harvesting grain right now. A few inches of rain is ok but high winds would be devastating
I don't wish misfortune on anyone, so don't take this the wrong way, but the cotton farmers aren't the only folks in the world. There are a lot of folks who would stand to gain from some rain, even if some wind came with it. It would be nice if it came in a way that benefitted everyone.
Game over.
Hi, Cindy. Updating OP.
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/877220089422073856?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Now will this count as a hit on Texas, or should we specify that the eye has to make landfall in the great state for it to count?
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/877220089422073856?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Now will this count as a hit on Texas, or should we specify that the eye has to make landfall in the great state for it to count?
Eye needs to hit Texas. All the rain will be on East side, so if eye hits Louisiana we're mainly just getting some wind from it.
Those videos are awesome. I can't help but laugh and feeling extremely awkward at the same time.
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txaggie_08 said:
Eye needs to hit Texas. All the rain will be on East side, so if eye hits Louisiana we're mainly just getting some wind from it.
Not so fast my friend...
From Berger's latest post
Quote:
Although Cindy has improved its circulation, it has stalled in the Gulf of Mexico a few hundred miles south of Louisiana.
Quote:
We've talked for a couple of days about the asymmetric nature of this stormwith all of the winds and rainfall on the east side. This suggests the effects in Houston will be relatively modest even if the storm makes "landfall" over the Houston-Galveston region. However, the latest runs of the GFS (and especially) the European model show a more symmetrical storm as Cindy nears the Texas coast, wrapping a lot of moisture around its core, and bringing a fair amount of rainfall into the Houston region.
As a result, I'm starting to think the Houston region sees 2 to 4 inches of rain, beginning Wednesday around noon, or later during the afternoon hours, and lasting through Thursday. Moreover, the European model suggests some areas of Houston could see quite a bit more rain than that. I'm not overly confident in that forecast yet, but it is something to watch for in regard to potential flooding. (And we will).
Pouring pretty good between Baton Rouge and New Orleans now.
Models are inching West, Houston isn't "safe" yet.
Space City Weather
Good rain in Atlanta, GA right now
Cindy is pulling moisture from both the Atlantic and EPAC basins. That's fairly uncommon and will be a very wet storm.
I've been tied up with a 4 y.o. for a few hours, have the Gov warnings moved, yet, to reflect the models aiming at Gal Bay with increasing regularity?dlance said:carpe vinum said:
Models are inching West, Houston isn't "safe" yet.
7PM track moved significantly west.
7 pm run
They're finally slowing the estimations down to reflect the stall.
It has been parked most of the day.
Still wondering how that mat affect strength.
It has been parked most of the day.
Still wondering how that mat affect strength.
Wherever she goes, she may be strengthening at landfall. Hot water.
In New Orleans now trying to fly to Houston tomorrow. Raining moderately. Gusting winds. Wish me luck.
Good luck!
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