True no one predicted snow in the south. But they had the cold and wet part correct so far. Still a lot of winter left. We had 2.5" of rain before 4" of snow this week in Victoria. We needed it

We need rain in Central Texas as well. We got a little, but not much. However, the flurries did have everyone excited.

I had 2 inches of rain before the snow in San Marcos...it was greatly appreciated!

Rain and snow combined was just over 2 inches in Calallen, and it fell s-l-o-w. Great rain for this black ground.

At least 2" rain in Concan and then snow on top of that. Much needed to help with creeks.

It SNOWED in Rockport, TX! Some teenagers here never have seen snow!

B-1 83 said:

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Rain and snow combined was just over 2 inches in Calallen, and it fell s-l-o-w. Great rain for this black ground.

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That's racist?

It seems it may never rain again in Kansas. I go to El Paso and San Antonio and get rain and snow, but none in Kansas... Sigh...

Been cold and wet across the upper gulf coast for a week and calling for freezing temps NYE and a 30% chance of snow on the 2nd right now. Go almanac go

Seems like the models for next week are still widely scattered. I'm seeing snow for the 2nd in one place and partly cloudy at another.

A few of the models are calling for snow / ice on the 2nd, leading into the 3rd-4th. Will know better this weekend.

Current Euro:

Neat.

Jeff Lindner:

Thursday morning briefing from Jeff:

Strong arctic cold front to arrive on NYEvery cold start to 2018.

A cold arctic air mass developing over NW Canada will become dislodged over the next 24 hours and surge into the US. This strong front will arrive into TX on Sunday and blast off the TX coast Sunday evening. A very cold air mass will pour into the state from the NNE with the freezing line moving southward into SE TX Sunday evening. Areas north of I-10 will likely fall below freezing early Monday (NYD) morning and only warm into the mid 30's on NYD. Appears even colder conditions will be likely on Monday night/Tuesday morning with the freezing line progressing all the way to the coast and possibly a hard freeze (25 degrees or lower) for areas along and N of US 59. Wind chills on NYD (Monday) may fall well into the 10's over portions of the area and should those values fall below 13 over a widespread area a wind chill advisory would be required.

Precipitation:

Sunday Evening (NYE)/Monday Morning (NYD):

Post frontal air mass will initially be shallow in naturemaybe a few thousand feet thickand moisture will run up and over the surface cold pool. This may result in a period of drizzle or light rain showers Sunday evening into early Monday morning. Surface temperatures will be falling to and below freezing by late evening north of a line from Columbus to Livingston and any light rain or drizzle could change to freezing drizzle. Accumulations are expected to be very lightless than a few .01's of an inch if anything. Drier air moving into the region may negate any precipitation at all once the temperatures fall below freezing. Could see freezing of any puddles of water left by rains during the day on Sunday Monday morning as the surface temperatures fall into the 20's N of I-10. Overall chance of any freezing precipitation N of the Columbus to Livingston line is around 10-20%.

Tuesday/Wednesday:

Very cold arctic high pressure will be in full control of much of the nation including SE TX with very cold conditions across SE TX. The ECMWF and CMC models bring another short wave through the mean trough and across SE TX on Tuesday into Wednesday while the GFS shows a much weaker piece of energy. Both the ECMWF and CMC generate precipitation across a very cold SE TX air mass during this period while the GFS is completely dry.

Since this is still several days out and model agreement is poor at this timehard to determine what if any precipitation will fall over the area and what sort of impacts may result. Something to keep an eye on in the coming days.

Key Messages:

1) Very cold air will arrive in SE TX NYE with hard freeze possible N of US 59 by morning of
2) Cold weather protection of the "4 P's" will be needed late NYE through much of next week. It will be cold enough to be concerned about any exposed outdoor pipes and sprinkler systems.
3) Light freezing drizzle/rain will be possible for a short period of time NYE evening/early NYD north of a Columbus to Livingston line with little to no ice accumulation currently expected
4) Residual water puddles from Sunday rainfall will likely freeze NYD morning north of I-10 which could result in a few slick spots
5) Precipitation is possible Tuesday/Wednesday, but the forecast is highly uncertain on how much, where, and what type.

I'll take no freezing precipitation. Texas and ice don't mix

I know we are a lot different than the rest of the state but it has still been fairly wet on the upper gulf coast. We haven't had the huge widespread rains like last year but have had steady weekly moisture and looks like it will continue at least for the next 10 days. Wharton county had 2" on Sunday and Dan Bury area had 5.5". Victoria county has consistently had 1/4-3/4" every week. Another system passing through this morning with thunder. Thunder in February means frost in April so I don't think we are done yet. Of course panhandle hasn't had moisture in 130 days, and when you get down the coast to Refugio and further those guys are pretty dry also. RGV way dry and they already have plants up and growing. Going to be another interesting year

Here in Lubbock area, we are approaching 100 days without any measurable precipitation. But we do have some rain chances coming up this weekend. Not sure what to expect, but some rain would be nice.

Does it make sense to start a 2018 thread? I enjoy staying on this thread and greatly appreciate all the people that contribute.

Yes, yes it does. But I would post the same thing I've posted the last 7 months... Not a damn thing.

Yeah, I was in Wichita last week and damn it is dry. I imagine it is similar up your way.

Seven said:

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I know we are a lot different than the rest of the state but it has still been fairly wet on the upper gulf coast. We haven't had the huge widespread rains like last year but have had steady weekly moisture and looks like it will continue at least for the next 10 days. Wharton county had 2" on Sunday and Dan Bury area had 5.5". Victoria county has consistently had 1/4-3/4" every week. Another system passing through this morning with thunder. Thunder in February means frost in April so I don't think we are done yet. Of course panhandle hasn't had moisture in 130 days, and when you get down the coast to Refugio and further those guys are pretty dry also. RGV way dry and they already have plants up and growing. Going to be another interesting year

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Everything in the world down here is wet, muddy and saturated. We've had 1 good run of actual sunshine in the last 2 weeks.

ttha_aggie_09 said:

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Yeah, I was in Wichita last week and damn it is dry. I imagine it is similar up your way.

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I'm 75 miles west of Wichita. We haven't had measurable precipitation since October 6, 2017.

It's dryer than a popcorn fart around here.

Hamburger Dan said:

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Here in Lubbock area, we are approaching 100 days without any measurable precipitation. But we do have some rain chances coming up this weekend. Not sure what to expect, but some rain would be nice.

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We were talking about this at lunch. Someone said that we haven't had measurable precipitation in my area for 120 days now.

The Director of Utilities for the city just told me that we officially had .01 inches in January, but that was just an estimate and is not considered to be measurable precipitation.

I was in Andrews today - it smelled a littl bie bit like rain. But nothing but clouds and wind. Maybe this weekend.

Fingers crossed baby. We have a chance of rain tomorrow.

Who's getting rain......Anything measurable? A few sprinkles around Frio Country this AM

Sure looks like Uvalde County is gettting pounded with more expected all week.

Woke up to thunder sleet/snow, but not as much as they had predicted. We were supposed to get about 6/10" overnight of rain, with temps in the 38-40* range. Instead we got .03" and 29*. Probably picked up another .05" during this sleety mess. Lots of accidents on the roads today due to the ice at beginning about 30 minutes before rush hour.

1/2" so far today in Frio county

3-1/2" in just west of Waco last night.

About 4.5" over the past two days near Waxahachie.

Think we hit over an inch in north Uvalde county today

In Frisco the past couple of days and it's been raining like hell.

schmellba99 said:

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ought1ag said:

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Who's getting rain......Anything measurable? A few sprinkles around Frio Country this AM

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Raining here in Houston. I don't remember when it wasn't raining and effing up the world down here.

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I know exactly what you mean..........and it seems to only rain between 6-9 AM and 4-6 PM when everyone is on the road.

0.7 total in Calallen (N Corpus). We need sunshine for farmers to plant! There should be a full soil profile - not much evaporation for the last 2 months.

Kansas finally getting good rain looks like

We're finally getting some in coastal SC, it's been really dry here since the big snow in January.

Of course this is the time that one of my wiper arms decide to crap out but it's nothing a little electrical tape couldn't fix until a new part comes in.