Good news for choke canyon.

This bad boy has beef hanging out over us all morning. Looks like it's going to hang out a while.

Choke will really benefit from that one.

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The Flash Flooding potential increases with the latest model information. 6-8 inches of rainfall will be possible over the next 24 hours with isolated amounts reaching as high as 15 inches in some spots. This will result in catastrophic flooding should it come to fruition. Please take heed of all warnings and forecast updates pertaining to flooding over the next 24 hours.

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Just saw 10+ possible tonight. Hold on to your *******s.

Been a solid heavy rain here in Bryan for 2.5 hours now

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Choke will really benefit from that one.

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we can only hope!

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Choke will really benefit from that one.

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we can only hope!

The cotton crops are effed. My guys are losing their butts. Some places having close to 100% loss of a bumper crop with decent prices.

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The cotton crops are effed. My guys are losing their butts. Some places having close to 100% loss of a bumper crop with decent prices.

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Would you explain how this happens to a layman?

How are the recharge areas doing? I know they are west of San Antonio but do not know specifics.... Where are the most beneficial areas?

The fluffy white lint that you see on the plants is full of seeds too. Each lock of fiber has 7-9 seeds in it usually. If the lint gets saturated and stays that way the seed will start to soak up the water and will start sprouting and growing new plants much like if it was planted in the soil. Once this happens it is impossible to separate the seed from the lint and the quality of the cotton is destroyed, it can't even be used for low grade cotton products, not even sure if you can feed it or not. So basically the crop is a total loss and you start playing the insurance game where they will try to force you to harvest of which costs way more than you can get back and it is cheaper to shred it. The coastal plains have been having very strong yields with good prices and now it is a total loss. It won't always sprout when it gets rained on but when it does it is catastrophic. Very very bad times. Cotton has sprouted all over east Texas and the upper gulf coast, hasn't dried out enough on the coastal bend and winter garden to see the damage.

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The cotton crops are effed. My guys are losing their butts. Some places having close to 100% loss of a bumper crop with decent prices.

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Would you explain how this happens to a layman?

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You notice all the photos he put up of the cotton seeds sprouting In the boll? The lint, the part you get paid for,is attached to the seeds. You can separate the lint from the hard, dry seeds. It's going to be impossible to separate the wet, mushy, sprouted seeds from the lint. Any lint you could get is going to be dirty and stained, which would ruin the price.

It's not worth the trouble and expense of harvest.

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Put another way, those with insurance (which today is likely everyone) will be paid something less than they might have made had they been able to harvest the cotton, and the ruined crop will be plowed under. I reckon premiums will increase accordingly next year.

And to add another comment to the original question posed, farming is one of the only endeavors I know of where one can do everything perfectly, resulting in a "bumper" crop, and still go broke due to things beyond his control (weather, markets, gov't decisions). And I can't name any other ones now.

Not to mention the cottonseed usually pays for the ginning, which is around $35-40/bale I believe. Without the seed to pay for ginning, I really don't know how farmers can pick the crop. Bankers have already been making the rounds telling guys to not spend anymore money. Just harvest your crop and go home. I've been gone since Thurs, but the pictures I've been sent are terrible.

My Dad and I are trying to get home from Bristol, TN in a Cessna, and the front is stalled out on our route the entire way. Gonna be a fun flight.

Hill County north of Waco:



More from Wharton County:

Question, what perentage of full price will insurance pay?

Oh and sorry for your loss.

Getting dumped on right now. Rain was coming in sideways for a little while.

Looks like the Frio came on a minor flood at Garner, and they had a turd floater in Pearsall. Maybe there will be enough to make it to Choke Canyon.

Last weekend had about 1/100th of the predicted rain in the Waco area. Just enough to wet the pavement on Saturday and Sunday, the forecast called for 1 to 3 inches.

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Last weekend had about 1/100th of the predicted rain in the Waco area. Just enough to wet the pavement on Saturday and Sunday, the forecast called for 1 to 3 inches.

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Dad got a total of 4.5 in Leon Junction over the week.

Got about 4" at my house since the first front blew in, I think the airport had an inch less. Not far to the southeast, they got hammered over the weekend.

4.25" in Polk County from Friday to Sunday

11.1 inches in central Bastrop county since Sunday a week ago.

got 5.5 west of college station

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Question, what perentage of full price will insurance pay?

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I'm not up on all the insurance policies, and some policies now you can guarantee a dollar amount, not a yield in pounds or bushels. A few years ago, you could buy a percentage of your established yield. Like 50%, 60%, 65%. And the higher the coverage, the higher the premium. And while you got to select the yield, the price was set at some point before harvest, usually based on last year's prices.

So the latter led to some absurd situations. As alluded to above, even when a farmer thinks that a field is going to cost more money to harvest than it's worth, the insurance company may insist that you harvest anyway. Then all they have to pay you is the delta between your guarantee, and the actual amount you harvested.

So for the absurdity, say I have insured wheat at 20 bushels an acre. And last year, Kansas had a drought and the insurance price for wheat is established at the 2015 price of $8 a bushel (I wish) However, this year, the rains came, and Kansas looks to have a bumper crop. So the market price of wheat is now $2 a bushel (made up number)

So if the insurance company makes me harvest, not only do I have the labor and expense of harvest, but every bushel I cut means that I don't get the insurance price of $8, but the market price of $2. Losing $6 a bushel.

Of course, if the insurance and market prices are flipped, the farmer has more incentive to harvest, not take insurance.

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Looks like the Frio came on a minor flood at Garner, and they had a turd floater in Pearsall. Maybe there will be enough to make it to Choke Canyon.

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5.5"-6" just down the road on Saturday Morning. Some decent flooding.

Spoke to my farmers today. Insurance companies are standing by a mandatory harvest of the lint since it is still on the plant and not laying on the ground.

There is some gamesmanship about how you harvest it in a situation like this, but that is for them to decide.

Still raining here.

Spoke with some rice farmers this morning as well. Apparently the rice harvest was delayed on a good number of acres due to lack of storage and weather. They have yet to get in the field since the the rain. Reports indicate sprouted grain on the plants.

Yeah, bad timing for the rice. Need to get that first cut then let the rain flood the fields for teal season.

Most around here have fertilized for their second cut now. Rain helping them.

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Spoke to my farmers today. Insurance companies are standing by a mandatory harvest of the lint since it is still on the plant and not laying on the ground.

Are they out of their freaking minds?

There is some gamesmanship about how you harvest it in a situation like this, but that is for them to decide.

Yeah, I've only run cotton strippers, not pickers, but I could figure out ways to run a stripper at, well, shall we say, "less than 100% efficiency".

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Spoke to my farmers today. Insurance companies are standing by a mandatory harvest of the lint since it is still on the plant and not laying on the ground.

Are they out of their freaking minds?

There is some gamesmanship about how you harvest it in a situation like this, but that is for them to decide.

Yeah, I've only run cotton strippers, not pickers, but I could figure out ways to run a stripper at, well, shall we say, "less than 100% efficiency".

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Yeah it's crazy that they will make them harvest it, but that is the ruling as of now. Sadly our gins are major employers in the area so there is some major trickle down impacts that are going to occur. We are being told the ginners are going to give it a shot, but we got another 1-2" in the last 24hours. It will be weeks before we even get to pick it.