Oh goodie! Victoria gon get wet! Bought a bunch of water this morning. Spending the day getting stuff picked up and ready for some wind

B a s t a r d i sent that one out so it's probably WeatherBELL.
Wunderground has a pretty good summary from NHS, Crownweather has a ton of good stuff, but storm2k.org is a forum like texags, but for weather geeks. You see all kinds of crap there.

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What website is this from? Always been interested in these but can't work the googler right.

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Texas Storm Chasers

Texas Storm Chasers is a pretty good website that keeps tabs on the more localized to Texas stuff - has all of the maps and models as well.

I picked up most of the big stuff yesterday, but still have a couple of things I'll probably pick up today as well. I also guess I should actually bolt the kid's playground to the anchors in the ground. Surprisingly it's made it through all of the stuff so far without even so much as swaying, but better safe than sorry I suppose.

Weather Underground
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2015/Invest-91L?map=model

That photo is constantly updating.

Another one I like takes model data and overlays Google Earth. Here is a 5 day rainfall estimate for this morning screen cap.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/kml/kmlproducts.php#qpf

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My prediction is it's going to rain some but this is a largely overrated, everybody freak out for nothing event.

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This is the most likely scenario. I keep telling my wife this, though the good news is that she would not have any issue with me going out and getting a whole house genset after the rains this past month and now the possibility of a tropical storm.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/kml/qpf/HPC_Day3_QPF_main.kml

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My prediction is it's going to rain some but this is a largely overrated, everybody freak out for nothing event.

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This is the most likely scenario. I keep telling my wife this, though the good news is that she would not have any issue with me going out and getting a whole house genset after the rains this past month and now the possibility of a tropical storm.

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How big are you going? I might be looking at one for my next house...

Weather Underground has two different tracks the models have grouped into. Which of the two would screw you guys in TX over less?

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My prediction is it's going to rain some but this is a largely overrated, everybody freak out for nothing event.

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This is the most likely scenario. I keep telling my wife this, though the good news is that she would not have any issue with me going out and getting a whole house genset after the rains this past month and now the possibility of a tropical storm.

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How big are you going? I might be looking at one for my next house...

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If/when I get one, probably in the 17kw-20kw range.

From what I have been told, generally speaking, 15kw will run the vast majority of average houses. You may not be able to run your AC with 15kw if everything else is also running at the same time. I figure that 17kw is probably a safe bet for me (I have not had a load study done) to be able to run everything, with the outside possibility of being able to run the AC if necessary. 20kw will definitely be enough to do so.

But for me to get a generator, it involves more than just the generator and ATS unfortunately - I will need to upsize my propane tank to at least a 500 gallon tank so that I could theoretically run at full load for more than 2-3 days that i could currently run on my 200 gallon tank.

In all likelyhood, I would not run the AC so that the generator runs closer to 40% to 50% load, but i like the idea of having it available just in case.

This is definitely a "one of these days" type of project, but nothing pressing by any stretch for me.

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Weather Underground has two different tracks the models have grouped into. Which of the two would screw you guys in TX over less?

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It needs to hit as far south as possible and then track more northerly. West Texas still needs the rain.

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This! The last couple of storms that have hit the Gulf Coast have given the Coastal Bend and West Texas the dry side. I've been saying for several years we need a storm to move inland somewhere around Kingsville before turning north.

But where this storm ultimately ends up coming ashorewill likely be determined by where the center of rotation forms as the storm develops from just a broad trough of low pressure.

Baffin Bay ftw!

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Weather Underground has two different tracks the models have grouped into. Which of the two would screw you guys in TX over less?

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It needs to hit as far south as possible and then track more northerly. West Texas still needs the rain.

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remember the east side of a storm is the wettest, so it needs to get out west of Llano/San Saba

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Weather Underground has two different tracks the models have grouped into. Which of the two would screw you guys in TX over less?

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It needs to hit as far south as possible and then track more northerly. West Texas still needs the rain.

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We are 2 weeks from beginning harvest in the Valley. The southern tracks would prove devastating to an area of agriculture already on the ropes.

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Weather Underground has two different tracks the models have grouped into. Which of the two would screw you guys in TX over less?

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It needs to hit as far south as possible and then track more northerly. West Texas still needs the rain.

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We are 2 weeks from beginning harvest in the Valley. The southern tracks would prove devastating to an area of agriculture already on the ropes.

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What? There's something to harvest????

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Weather Underground has two different tracks the models have grouped into. Which of the two would screw you guys in TX over less?

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It needs to hit as far south as possible and then track more northerly. West Texas still needs the rain.

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We are 2 weeks from beginning harvest in the Valley. The southern tracks would prove devastating to an area of agriculture already on the ropes.

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What? There's something to harvest????

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Can they harvest guys making their way north from across the border?

Heavy rain drifting south.

Storm will probably go into Mexico

Looks like some of the models are starting to disagree - most still show Port O'Conner area landfall, but some are looking further south towards CC/Baffin Bay.

Weather guy said its tying to take a more westward approach. Hill Country might get hit hard again.

im no weather expert, but doesnt the eye landing around cc mean houston is going to get dumped on?

If lands south of Houston, Houston is going to get dumped on. Our only saving grace would be if it freaks out and hits Port Arthur or eastward.

anything to east the of the "eye" is gonna get soaked.

Good chance it gets named Bill this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters are loading up to go check it out.

Looking like a slight WNW turn......it will be close to Corpus at landfall.

3-4 or 5-8 around the DFW area could get interesting.

I think landfall is largely going to depend on where the center of circulation establishes. A plane is inbound now from Louisiana, so we should have data in a couple of hours. That will allow nhc to go ahead and classify it as a named storm and define the center.

Tropical Tidbits showed some bouy and rig weather station data that does suggest a week defined center of rotation.

Buchanan watershed picking up some water.

I wonder how much more rain lake belton can take before it hits the spillway

NM - props to Pablo on the central Texas board

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Looking like a slight WNW turn......it will be close to Corpus at landfall.

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Good, then maybe the Houston local news channels will stfu with "around the clock" coverage. Sensationalism at its finest.

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Sensationalism? You bet.

But if the eye makes landfall around Corpus, you do realize that the worst of the bands will likely hit Houston dead on, right?

Houston wont be able to take much rainfall before flooding again at current saturarion levels.

Updated rain maps. Pushing rain farther inland.