At least we have some balance. Some dams, like the Aswan on the Nile, have really hurt agriculture.
Rain is outdoors.....
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Last: 12 days ago by ought1ag
There is balance, but the long run is that the things we do to control nature have negative impacts.
Damns, levees, etc. that restrict or control the natural flow and floods don't allow new topsoil to be deposited on the flood plains - bad. They keep cities and towns from being flooded out - good.
Which is better over the long run? Hard to say, though the older I get the more I lean towards nature knowing what it is supposed to do and man not really having much of a clue.
Damns, levees, etc. that restrict or control the natural flow and floods don't allow new topsoil to be deposited on the flood plains - bad. They keep cities and towns from being flooded out - good.
Which is better over the long run? Hard to say, though the older I get the more I lean towards nature knowing what it is supposed to do and man not really having much of a clue.
Was talking to Dad last night and he said a guy in Edna had measured over 40" over rain fall since February. My first thought was that all the folks that had been saying we would need a hurricane to fill everything back up were right, but what if a hurricane hits any time soon? Where is all the water going to go?
quote:Down hill.
Where is all the water going to go?
quote:I get that, though with today's population, there is little alternative to doing dams and other middle fingers to mother nature, less we have huge loss of property and life every year.
Which is better over the long run? Hard to say, though the older I get the more I lean towards nature knowing what it is supposed to do and man not really having much of a clue.
We can't go back to the pristine state of 1491 (which really wasn't pristine, as the Indians Fooled Mother Nature constantly) so the best we can do is work with it. Somewhere between the pioneer's dog trot house that took advantage of the natural breezes and a 1960s box ranch with central heat and air and absolutely no natural heating or cooling, there must be a modern way. Like a house with CH&A, but windows you can open on nice days, porches that shade in the summer, etc.
As far as floods, I am all for helping people in disasters. But if you want to build a house in a known flood plain or hurricane coast, I think you ought to self insure. Don't ask others to assume your risk.
Is paying a high premium for insurance sufficient for your take on "self insure?" Or do you literally mean, you shouldn't be allowed to buy insurance because it makes everyone else's premiums go up?
quote:
As far as floods, I am all for helping people in disasters. But if you want to build a house in a known flood plain or hurricane coast, I think
you ought to self insure. Don't ask others to assume your risk.
Same thing could be said for people that live in the plains with tornadoes, floods, drought, etc. Or those that live in earthquake zones, or the mountains with landslides or avalanches or floods, or those that live where mudslides happen, etc.
quote:So basically anywhere....quote:
As far as floods, I am all for helping people in disasters. But if you want to build a house in a known flood plain or hurricane coast, I think
you ought to self insure. Don't ask others to assume your risk.
Same thing could be said for people that live in the plains with tornadoes, floods, drought, etc. Or those that live in earthquake zones, or the mountains with landslides or avalanches or floods, or those that live where mudslides happen, etc.
quote:At some level, you should not be given the option to buy insurance, period.
Is paying a high premium for insurance sufficient for your take on "self insure?" Or do you literally mean, you shouldn't be allowed to buy insurance because it makes everyone else's premiums go up?
If you're in a 100 year or 500 year flood plain, sure, buy insurance with the corresponding higher premiums. I don't know if there's such a thing as a 10-year flood plain, but if there were, no, other people should not subsidize your foolishness.
quote:My little home town got hit by a twister in 1965. Was founded in 1893. Has had the one tornado in 122 years, and that one only got about 15% of the town.
Same thing could be said for people that live in the plains with tornadoes, floods, drought, etc. Or those that live in earthquake zones, or the mountains with landslides or avalanches or floods, or those that live where mudslides happen, etc.
Do you really think that's the same thing as a place that has flooded two or three times in the past decade?
Can you explain to me how home owners, flood, wind, auto etc insurance is subsidizing?
quote:I think he's referring to the fed and state assistance.
Can you explain to me how home owners, flood, wind, auto etc insurance is subsidizing?
Ahhh... I was really confused there for a second. Carry on.
quote:If you are paying the same rates, yet have built in an area with much higher risks, others are subsidizing your risk. And that is in addition to government help.
Can you explain to me how home owners, flood, wind, auto etc insurance is subsidizing?
I didn't know insurance companies gave the same rates to different levels of risk. If they do, I'd say it's on them and they won't be in business long. As for the government assistance, I'm with you there.
Models are still indicating a tropical storm popping up in the Gulf by this weekend.
Back on topic. I was wondering what was going to come of those early models you posted last week. Still have some lakes that need filling up.
I agree that people should not have to subsidize stupidity or poor choices, but look at our country. We have a country of handouts. Actually had a very long discussion about this Saturday night with a group of church friends while we cooked out a had a beer.
Our church does a program called Lunches of Love in the summertime, it is designed to give kids a free no questions asked lunch every weekday of the summer. It's a great program, but it is severely abused; both by some of the people who run it and by some of the people who take advantage of it.
These kids cannot help their situation they are born into, and then they go to school; at school they get free lunch, then in the summer free lunch, then back to school and free lunch. All they grow up knowing is that someone is going to give them something for nothing and that they will be (should be in their minds maybe) taken care of.
Bah, this is turning into a political discussion.
Our church does a program called Lunches of Love in the summertime, it is designed to give kids a free no questions asked lunch every weekday of the summer. It's a great program, but it is severely abused; both by some of the people who run it and by some of the people who take advantage of it.
These kids cannot help their situation they are born into, and then they go to school; at school they get free lunch, then in the summer free lunch, then back to school and free lunch. All they grow up knowing is that someone is going to give them something for nothing and that they will be (should be in their minds maybe) taken care of.
Bah, this is turning into a political discussion.
quote:quote:My little home town got hit by a twister in 1965. Was founded in 1893. Has had the one tornado in 122 years, and that one only got about 15% of the town.
Same thing could be said for people that live in the plains with tornadoes, floods, drought, etc. Or those that live in earthquake zones, or the mountains with landslides or avalanches or floods, or those that live where mudslides happen, etc.
Do you really think that's the same thing as a place that has flooded two or three times in the past decade?
And how did your town, local businesses, local farmers, etc. fare during the drought? I'm sure you could go back and find other acts of nature that caused disaster conditions as well - disasters are not specific to one or two items.
The town I live in has had zero reprocussions thus far from the flooding, hail storms, etc. Yet I pay a monster amount every year in windstorm insurance because it is state mandated that I do so simply because I live in Brazoria County. The windstorm policy is separate from homeowner's, which is separate from flood - I have to have 3 separate insurance policies on my house.
The coast is not the only area of the state that gets windy conditions, yet we are forced to pay for a separate high dollar policy because we get a hurricane every 20+ years. Can you tell me what is fair about that, espeically when premiums for this policy continue to go up, and I live further away from the coast than some areas that do not require the additional rider on their homeowner's policy?
Oh, BTW, this windstorm is a state mandated tax on me that the state only allows one underwriter for. So they get to set rates without the benefit of competition. And several insurance companies have opted to not write flood policies or homeowner policies for coastal areas also, so we are doubly limited in choices for a required insurance plan.
quote:Virtually all flood insurance is through the federal government, you can buy from your insurance agent, but the government is your insurance carrier. If the government is involved, you know that taxpayers are on the hook.
I didn't know insurance companies gave the same rates to different levels of risk. If they do, I'd say it's on them and they won't be in business long. As for the government assistance, I'm with you there.
It's a troubling thing. We want to help the truly needed. But by doing so, we encourage people to not take responsibility for themselves and the greedy, but not needy, take advantage as well.
I'm going more and more to the tough love/Darwinism side. The feeding program you reference is compassionate and loving. Yet, what it does is encourage years of dependance and living barely above the poverty line.
Were all such program to disappear overnight, there would be immense pain at the outset. But over time, people would take care of their own damn kids, or quit having them. In the long run, there would be a fraction of the poor kids there are now, and they would be in poverty for less time.
Bottom line, Handouts = years of low-level suffering. No handouts = short time of more intense suffering, but not permanent suffering.
But heck, what do I know.
I'm going more and more to the tough love/Darwinism side. The feeding program you reference is compassionate and loving. Yet, what it does is encourage years of dependance and living barely above the poverty line.
Were all such program to disappear overnight, there would be immense pain at the outset. But over time, people would take care of their own damn kids, or quit having them. In the long run, there would be a fraction of the poor kids there are now, and they would be in poverty for less time.
Bottom line, Handouts = years of low-level suffering. No handouts = short time of more intense suffering, but not permanent suffering.
But heck, what do I know.
Dams and lakes saved a lot of heartache this year for those down stream by controlling flow. We live in a flood plain and manage accordingly, its part of the deal. Dad was grateful for all of the folks that fertilized their yards and fields so we could have green pastures, as well as having all of our downed pecans from the drought pushed out of the pastures. Circle of life, it's an humbling feeling to experience it first hand.
We need about an inch of rain to get these crops from going into drought stress though without big root systems.
We need about an inch of rain to get these crops from going into drought stress though without big root systems.
I agree with you, but it's hard for people to get behind such a "ruthless" style of governing.
I feel the welfare should be cut off completely; if you can't figure out how to survive then you'll wither away. But to a lot of people what they hear me say is I am 100% ok with killing these people, and I'm a cold heartless Godless *******.
I feel the welfare should be cut off completely; if you can't figure out how to survive then you'll wither away. But to a lot of people what they hear me say is I am 100% ok with killing these people, and I'm a cold heartless Godless *******.
quote:Unlikely to help any of those lakes, looks like Louisiana or East, but maybe Southeast Texas.
Back on topic. I was wondering what was going to come of those early models you posted last week. Still have some lakes that need filling up.
Boo
That is why they are actively doing their best to drop all the lakes back down to conservation level at a controlled rate. That puts the flood buffer back in. A perfect example is Canyon lake that they have been draining at 5000 CFS. But it is an incremental process because you can't just drain them all at once since there are only like 4 main watersheds and it takes 6-10 days to get from North Texas to the ocean. It has taken them a week just to drain only half of the water away from the Barker reservoir in West Houston and Buffalo Bayou has been running high the entire time, and it only has to go like 30 miles.
quote:quote:Virtually all flood insurance is through the federal government, you can buy from your insurance agent, but the government is your insurance carrier. If the government is involved, you know that taxpayers are on the hook.
I didn't know insurance companies gave the same rates to different levels of risk. If they do, I'd say it's on them and they won't be in business long. As for the government assistance, I'm with you there.
Crop insurance is as well, and it gets dinged significantly more often than things like flood, hurricane, etc.
I am sure there are others on here that have had claims under Flood and Windstorm insurance, as I have had. My experience with hurricane damage, into which I have paid over $35K in premiums in 20 years was abysmal.
Somewhere someone must have made out well, but I had over $30K in damage and fought for 6 months to get $12K in insurance money. The TWIA and FEMA policies for windstorm and flood basically suck. Ironically I was just trying to reduce and get my Windstorm policy reduced on Friday, and that whole deal is idiocy. As some of my property is rental I basically pay $1000 per year to TWIA for Windstorm which only covers the roof of one property. That is all it is going to cover as there is no homeowners policy, so since the last Hurricane in 08' I have paid out about $7K to insure what is now probably depreciated down to about $4K of roof.
All these subsidies cut many ways, the same can be said about Federal Crop Insurance and Farm subsidies if we really want to split nuts.
I honestly predict that the next big hurricane that strikes the Texas coast in a populated area is going to change the insurance industry and the how the coast will further develop in a major way.
Somewhere someone must have made out well, but I had over $30K in damage and fought for 6 months to get $12K in insurance money. The TWIA and FEMA policies for windstorm and flood basically suck. Ironically I was just trying to reduce and get my Windstorm policy reduced on Friday, and that whole deal is idiocy. As some of my property is rental I basically pay $1000 per year to TWIA for Windstorm which only covers the roof of one property. That is all it is going to cover as there is no homeowners policy, so since the last Hurricane in 08' I have paid out about $7K to insure what is now probably depreciated down to about $4K of roof.
All these subsidies cut many ways, the same can be said about Federal Crop Insurance and Farm subsidies if we really want to split nuts.
I honestly predict that the next big hurricane that strikes the Texas coast in a populated area is going to change the insurance industry and the how the coast will further develop in a major way.
quote:Yes there is, it just doesn't get mapped. I spent several summers interning for an engineering firm that only did storm water management, and got to see first hand how the maps were made as they were in the middle of remodeling the Brays Bayou watershed in Houston.
I don't know if there's such a thing as a 10-year flood plain
By now they have probably fully switched to the modern Windows versions of software, but in the early 2000's it was still a mixed bag of the GUI Windows version and the older dos based fortran stuff. All of it is produced by the USACoE.
The process starts with modeled rainfall intensity. NOAA's Hydrometerological Design Studies Center maintains precipitation frequency data. So for an area you wish to study you can get the various rainfall intensity (2 year, 5 year, 10 year, 25 year, 50 year, 100 year, etc) and durations anywhere from 5 minutes to 10 days. The FEMA maps are based, IIRC, on the 100 year (1% occurrence) 24 hour rainfall. Run this data through one set of software and you get the volumes of water that pass through the system and the timing of when that water arrives. You run that data through another program which models the actual stream profile and it will tell you exactly how deep the water will get all along the stream.
If you have a sensor near where you live that does inundation mapping like this:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/inundation/inundation_google.php?gage=bbst2
You can also go to this website and see what the flood frequency heights are:
http://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDetail/Index/2240?R=1
Then put the map in the first place to the height of the desired flood.
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/inundation/inundation_google.php?gage=bbst2
You can also go to this website and see what the flood frequency heights are:
http://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDetail/Index/2240?R=1
Then put the map in the first place to the height of the desired flood.
quote:I'm in victoria and have had 29+ inches since March 17, so I believe him! We were getting descent rain in Jan-March before I started tracking it. With our luck, that Low in the GOM will turn to a hurricane and drench us, since we don't need it now.....
Was talking to Dad last night and he said a guy in Edna had measured over 40" over rain fall since February. My first thought was that all the folks that had been saying we would need a hurricane to fill everything back up were right, but what if a hurricane hits any time soon? Where is all the water going to go?
Is there a website that shows real time satellite images that us serfs can access? I'd really like to see what the flooding is like locally, but all I can get are pictures from here and there taken by folks at ground level or the rare aerial pictures from a plane.
Seems that with all of the tech we have today, there'd be something available to us to look at.
Seems that with all of the tech we have today, there'd be something available to us to look at.
quote:I think that $uch web$ite$ exi$t. The problem i$ there i$ $omething required to acce$$ $uch web$ite$ that i$ beyond the mean$ of mo$t of we $erf$, at lea$t ju$t for ca$ual viewing$.
Is there a website that shows real time satellite images that us serfs can access?
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