I think Baltimore gets two 1st rd picks if another team offers more than Lamar gets under franchise tag and the Ravens don't match. So the appeal for a trade might be that a team could get him for less than two 1sts and a high contract value.

Ravens have a good strategy, but I believe they're limited in the number of franchise tags they can use on Lamar so will have to let him walk eventually. That said - they need to be very aware of what happened in Houston when Deshaun quit on the team - you can become non-competitive very quickly.

Easiest answer I can think of is there is collusion amongst owners in an attempt to reset the QB market. May be hard to prove though.

scd88 said:

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I like what Baltimore is doing with Lamar. I feel like they are letting the market set the contract instead of them overpaying based upon what Lamar wants. Too much cap space is being committed to the QB position for a lot of these clubs.

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The main thing they're trying to avoid is a fully guaranteed deal. It's not really about the annual salary.

Lamar wants a deal like Deshaun, but Deshaun had just signed a new deal. Cleveland only upped because they had no chance otherwise. Lamar doesn't have a deal right now. Teams aren't going to bid against themselves when Baltimore can just match, and owners also want to squash fully guaranteed deals so it doesn't become a trend.

I have no doubt that someone would overpay for Lamar, but right now things are set up against him.

I don't think the Lamar situation is only about a fully guaranteed deal. I believe if there's a team out there that wants him and he would agree to play for there's a deal to be made that both sides can accept financially.

The issue is the non-exclusive tag and how much work will have to go into this. The non-exclusive tag indicates that if he signs with another team they owe the Ravens 2 first round picks if the Ravens don't match. Not only can the Ravens match, they can turn right back around and tell the other team they want more than 2 first round picks. If Watson goes for 3 first round picks, Baltimore is unlikely to let him go for less than that. Where's the motivation to get a deal done with Lamar if the other team is anticipating the Ravens immediately matching and ramping up the trade demand assets? The only way that doesn't happen is for the other team to sign him for so much that the Ravens have to worry about a bluff. It would have to be too high for them to agree to match it, and that's a highly unlikely scenario.

Watson got $230MM guaranteed.
Kyler has $189.5MM guaranteed.

Jackson at a minimum is going to want to exceed Kyler's contract, why wouldn't he? My guess is that the figure he wants is $200MM in guarantees. If I'm a GM I'm not paying anyone that isn't Mahomes that figure, no one. That's too much money, especially to a guy who has had some injuries. To me the longest they can probably justify paying him is for 3 years, and I doubt he's interested in that.

One of the podcasts I was listening too also brought up another point with Jackson, he seems to get sick every year as well. He hasn't missed games just due to injury, that's something to think about too.

Ryan34 said:

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scd88 said:

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I like what Baltimore is doing with Lamar. I feel like they are letting the market set the contract instead of them overpaying based upon what Lamar wants. Too much cap space is being committed to the QB position for a lot of these clubs.

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The main thing they're trying to avoid is a fully guaranteed deal. It's not really about the annual salary.

Lamar wants a deal like Deshaun, but Deshaun had just signed a new deal. Cleveland only upped because they had no chance otherwise. Lamar doesn't have a deal right now. Teams aren't going to bid against themselves when Baltimore can just match, and owners also want to squash fully guaranteed deals so it doesn't become a trend.

I have no doubt that someone would overpay for Lamar, but right now things are set up against him.

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Agreed, the only leverage Lamar has is to not play next year (which he has no contract and doesn't get paid at all) or to hold out until the season starts, but with the Ravens putting in a new offense he's gonna look horrible if he does that killing his value to other teams. Lamar really should have done this last off season and threatened to hold out until the deal was done, but now he has no leverage against the Ravens to force him into a deal. On top of that, by representing himself in the negotiations, he's made everything personal.

I don't see going back to the Ravens, but I also don't see how a team will come in and give him a huge deal with the threat of probably losing more than 2 1st round picks (or the Ravens just matching).

If this doesn't get taken care of by the draft, I bet the Ravens taken Hendon Hooker in the first round.

If Jackson doesn't play or sign elsewhere, the Ravens will need to quickly tank. Hooker would be a mistake. Better off trading down for a 1 next year and possibly adding another 2 and 3 next year.

I would offer their 1 this year for a Bears, Indy, Arizona or Maybe GB first next year. With a well designed tank, the Ravens could get 2 top 10 picks to trade up for a qb or
Just draft one.

Reports Texans are really high on Will Levis

mAgnoliAg said:

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Reports Texans are really high on Will Levis

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That would be peak Texans if they make that pick.

mAgnoliAg said:

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Reports Texans are really high on Will Levis

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Don't believe anything about teams' opinions on draft prospects starting in January until the draft is complete.

Lol, gotta love this final weeks into the draft where everyone starts grasping at intentionally spread rumors

LZ has Texans taking Tyree Wilson #2 and then trading up from 12 to 7 to take Levis

chjoak said:

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LZ has Texans taking Tyree Wilson #2 and then trading up from 12 to 7 to take Levis

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This isn't hard at all

chjoak said:

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LZ has Texans taking Tyree Wilson #2 and then trading up from 12 to 7 to take Levis

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I dunno which DE or QB they prefer in this scenario but it makes a lot of sense if they don't see a lot of differentiation amongst the 3 QB after Young. We have the picks to move up so if you see Levis / Richardson has equal to Stroud then might as well get the impact defensive player first.

chjoak said:

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LZ has Texans taking Tyree Wilson #2 and then trading up from 12 to 7 to take Levis

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Nope. Nope nope nope

Whats the word on metchie? Will he play next year?

chjoak said:

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LZ has Texans taking Tyree Wilson #2 and then trading up from 12 to 7 to take Levis

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That's the dumbest set of moves I've seen in a mock. If there's any situation where they don't take a QB at 2 then they take Anderson. I've been listening to the PFF most recent mock podcast and they really turned me off on Wilson. I still contend a lot of the noise on Levis is smoke, I think he's the 4th QB taken, maybe 5th if there's a team that loves Hendon Hooker. LZ thinks Richardson goes to NE at 14, which is also ludicrous, both the pick number and the fact it's NE, Belichick is maybe the least likely coach to pair with him.

At 12 they'll most likely go edge rusher. Best case scenario IMO would be a trade back in the first round and take John Michael Schmitz, center from Minnesota. He might be the best offensive lineman in the draft but because he plays center it's not considered as valuable as other positions. Houston still has so many needs that turning pick 12 into more picks if possible is better than maybe anyone who's there. If there's a QB there at 12 then a team like TB is likely to pick up the phone and see what the cost is. If Houston could drop to 19 and pick up a 2nd in 2023 or 2024 then they take it.

Max Power said:

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chjoak said:

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LZ has Texans taking Tyree Wilson #2 and then trading up from 12 to 7 to take Levis

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That's the dumbest set of moves I've seen in a mock. If there's any situation where they don't take a QB at 2 then they take Anderson. I've been listening to the PFF most recent mock podcast and they really turned me off on Wilson. I still contend a lot of the noise on Levis is smoke, I think he's the 4th QB taken, maybe 5th if there's a team that loves Hendon Hooker. LZ thinks Richardson goes to NE at 14, which is also ludicrous, both the pick number and the fact it's NE, Belichick is maybe the least likely coach to pair with him.

At 12 they'll most likely go edge rusher. Best case scenario IMO would be a trade back in the first round and take John Michael Schmitz, center from Minnesota. He might be the best offensive lineman in the draft but because he plays center it's not considered as valuable as other positions. Houston still has so many needs that turning pick 12 into more picks if possible is better than maybe anyone who's there. If there's a QB there at 12 then a team like TB is likely to pick up the phone and see what the cost is. If Houston could drop to 19 and pick up a 2nd in 2023 or 2024 then they take it.

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Yeah, that's an odd take for LZ right there. How could we be sure we would trade back into the top 10 to get a QB? We couldn't, so that would mean we were taking Wilson (which I would be against personally) with the idea that we were OK with not selecting a QB. And I can't believe that this organization has done all this positioning to leave getting a QB up to a whim. This just looks like mock draft porn where LZ wanted someone to take Wilson as the top defensive player taken and then realized, oh ****, no one is gonna pay attention unless the Texans also take a QB, how can I make that happen?

LZ is just doing that to rile everyone up and get himself some more pub

He knows we aren't waiting to move up and take Levis

One of the podcasts I listened to the other day had a theory that Houston likes one QB and one QB only at 2. If that QB isn't there they might pick up the phone and call Indy directly to move down. In the same division they could demand a ransom for it. I think that's way too unlikely to happen. It's more likely that Indy would get a deal done to get Lamar Jackson than they are to trade up with Houston IMO. I thought that was the most fun speculation that I've heard so far, way more so than Tyree Wilson at 2.

I watched LZ defend all of these picks on "Mock Draft Live," and his big argument was that he was trying to get into the head of Caserio:

1. Thinks they might pass on Stroud because he is represented by David Mulugheta and there may be residual issues from what went down with DeShaun.

2. Thinks they might prefer Tyree Wilson over Will Anderson because of the fit in DeMeco's defense.

3. Thinks they might favor Levis because he has some familiarity with this offensive system.

All of these points make a little sense in the abstract, but there is no way this can happen. Even is Mulugheta was the devil incarnate, you can't pass on a franchise quarterback because you don't like his agent and you anticipate problems four or five years down the road when you're negotiating a contract. Maybe the Texans aren't that impressed with Stroud, and if so, so be it. But the agent shouldn't be the defining factor there.

I just don't like Levis, period. I think they have to go QB at 2. Take either Young or Stroud. Don't overthink this. Passing on a QB at 2 is probably the only thing they could do that would genuinely make me want to pull my hair out. After that, if you want to get a receive or a pass rusher or a lineman, then whatever. But they have to have Young or Stroud next season.

Snake Jazz said:

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1. Thinks they might pass on Stroud because he is represented by David Mulugheta and there may be residual issues from what went down with DeShaun.

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LZ loses me here

Why would there be bad blood? Deshaun got exactly what he wanted. He got out of Houston, went to a team of his choice, and got a better fully guaranteed contract. That sounds pretty fckn good for a guy who had 23 sexual assault charges attached to him.

There is no reason whatsoever for there to be residual issues and even if there are that shouldn't dictate who they draft.

If Stroud is who they feel is the best fit for the team who his agent is shouldn't matter. Besides aren't rookie deal still slotted based on where they're drafted making negotiations of rookie deals kind of a moot point?

Ag_07 said:

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If Stroud is who they feel is the best fit for the team who his agent is shouldn't matter. Besides aren't rookie deal still slotted based on where they're drafted making negotiations of rookie deals kind of a moot point?

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Exactly. This should only become a factor when Stroud is done with his rookie deal in five years, assuming that he hasn't changed agents in that time.

Maybe it isn't a factor at all, but I've heard that floated around in a few places enough that it worries me just a little. Seems petty and a poor excuse to pass on a guy expected to be a good NFL starting QB.

Snake Jazz said:

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Ag_07 said:

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If Stroud is who they feel is the best fit for the team who his agent is shouldn't matter. Besides aren't rookie deal still slotted based on where they're drafted making negotiations of rookie deals kind of a moot point?

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Exactly. This should only become a factor when Stroud is done with his rookie deal in five years, assuming that he hasn't changed agents in that time.

Maybe it isn't a factor at all, but I've heard that floated around in a few places enough that it worries me just a little. Seems petty and a poor excuse to pass on a guy expected to be a good NFL starting QB.

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Agree with both of you. I get what he's saying, but I think this is a case of LZ over thinking scenarios and then trying to make the picks to fit into those scenarios. You have to look at the whole more than the individual aspects and the biggest glaring issue is it's making an assumption that Houston would even be able to trade back up if they want to. Listening to the Texans All Access podcast and they were picking apart the mock drafts, and that was the biggest sticking point on LZ's mock, you can't logically make that Wilson pick unless you know for certain where Levis will be selected and that you will be able to trade in to get him (and you can't know that).

I really think LZ waaaay overthought this and then just tried to make it work to fit his thoughts.

Snake Jazz said:

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I watched LZ defend all of these picks on "Mock Draft Live," and his big argument was that he was trying to get into the head of Caserio:

1. Thinks they might pass on Stroud because he is represented by David Mulugheta and there may be residual issues from what went down with DeShaun.

2. Thinks they might prefer Tyree Wilson over Will Anderson because of the fit in DeMeco's defense.

3. Thinks they might favor Levis because he has some familiarity with this offensive system.

All of these points make a little sense in the abstract, but there is no way this can happen. Even is Mulugheta was the devil incarnate, you can't pass on a franchise quarterback because you don't like his agent and you anticipate problems four or five years down the road when you're negotiating a contract. Maybe the Texans aren't that impressed with Stroud, and if so, so be it. But the agent shouldn't be the defining factor there.

I just don't like Levis, period. I think they have to go QB at 2. Take either Young or Stroud. Don't overthink this. Passing on a QB at 2 is probably the only thing they could do that would genuinely make me want to pull my hair out. After that, if you want to get a receive or a pass rusher or a lineman, then whatever. But they have to have Young or Stroud next season.

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Hope you like being bald then. (After pulling out your hair later this month.)

I have no doubt they want to trade down but who wants to trade up? You likely have to take less than what it historically takes because I don't see Detroit or Seattle being desperate to move up and I don't think you want to move back too much and risk not getting one of the QB. It's much more realistic to trade up to 7 than down given the Raiders needs.

Snake Jazz said:

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I just don't like Levis, period. I think they have to go QB at 2. Take either Young or Stroud. Don't overthink this. Passing on a QB at 2 is probably the only thing they could do that would genuinely make me want to pull my hair out. After that, if you want to get a receive or a pass rusher or a lineman, then whatever. But they have to have Young or Stroud next season.

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Look I get it but there are some things to keep in mind with Levis. First he was dealing with multiple injuries so it's hard to put too much stock into last year's stats. Second, he is on one of the least talented teams in the toughest conference in football. I still struggle with who you could comp him to that makes sense. Favre was a guy whose college stats were highly underwhelming and missed a lot of time his senior year with an injury from a car crash. That's probably the closest comp I can come up with that worked out but he also didn't go in the first round.

i've seen comps to Ryan Leaf.

And Stroud comps to Goff. None of these guys after Young are slam dunks and all are more likely to be busts than not.

ElCheAg said:

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Snake Jazz said:

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I watched LZ defend all of these picks on "Mock Draft Live," and his big argument was that he was trying to get into the head of Caserio:

1. Thinks they might pass on Stroud because he is represented by David Mulugheta and there may be residual issues from what went down with DeShaun.

2. Thinks they might prefer Tyree Wilson over Will Anderson because of the fit in DeMeco's defense.

3. Thinks they might favor Levis because he has some familiarity with this offensive system.

All of these points make a little sense in the abstract, but there is no way this can happen. Even is Mulugheta was the devil incarnate, you can't pass on a franchise quarterback because you don't like his agent and you anticipate problems four or five years down the road when you're negotiating a contract. Maybe the Texans aren't that impressed with Stroud, and if so, so be it. But the agent shouldn't be the defining factor there.

I just don't like Levis, period. I think they have to go QB at 2. Take either Young or Stroud. Don't overthink this. Passing on a QB at 2 is probably the only thing they could do that would genuinely make me want to pull my hair out. After that, if you want to get a receive or a pass rusher or a lineman, then whatever. But they have to have Young or Stroud next season.

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Hope you like being bald then. (After pulling out your hair later this month.)

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Why? You got some inside info? Or do you just assume that the Texans are always going to do something the fans hate?

I will genuinely be surprised (and disgusted) if we don't take Young or Stroud.

MaxPower said:

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Snake Jazz said:

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I just don't like Levis, period. I think they have to go QB at 2. Take either Young or Stroud. Don't overthink this. Passing on a QB at 2 is probably the only thing they could do that would genuinely make me want to pull my hair out. After that, if you want to get a receive or a pass rusher or a lineman, then whatever. But they have to have Young or Stroud next season.

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Look I get it but there are some things to keep in mind with Levis. First he was dealing with multiple injuries so it's hard to put too much stock into last year's stats. Second, he is on one of the least talented teams in the toughest conference in football. I still struggle with who you could comp him to that makes sense. Favre was a guy whose college stats were highly underwhelming and missed a lot of time his senior year with an injury from a car crash. That's probably the closest comp I can come up with that worked out but he also didn't go in the first round.

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I watched Levis several times last season and was always bewildered about what scouts saw in the guy. You can make every excuse in the book. Outside of arm strength and size, he just isn't impressive at all. Dude is Sam Darnold 2.0.

Snake Jazz said:

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MaxPower said:

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Snake Jazz said:

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I just don't like Levis, period. I think they have to go QB at 2. Take either Young or Stroud. Don't overthink this. Passing on a QB at 2 is probably the only thing they could do that would genuinely make me want to pull my hair out. After that, if you want to get a receive or a pass rusher or a lineman, then whatever. But they have to have Young or Stroud next season.

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Look I get it but there are some things to keep in mind with Levis. First he was dealing with multiple injuries so it's hard to put too much stock into last year's stats. Second, he is on one of the least talented teams in the toughest conference in football. I still struggle with who you could comp him to that makes sense. Favre was a guy whose college stats were highly underwhelming and missed a lot of time his senior year with an injury from a car crash. That's probably the closest comp I can come up with that worked out but he also didn't go in the first round.

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I watched Levis several times last season and was always bewildered about what scouts saw in the guy. You can make every excuse in the book. Outside of arm strength and size, he just isn't impressive at all. Dude is Sam Darnold 2.0.

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I thought Darnold was supposed to be noodle armed

In my opinion the top 4 best comparisons are:
B Young. Floor Tua. Ceiling drew Brees.
Richardson. Floor Jamarcus Russell ceiling Cam Newton
Levis. Floor Mitch trubiski. Ceiling Josh Allen
Stroud. Floor. Haskins. Ceiling. Russell Wilson

All have issues from size of young to How well Ohio st QBs end up with no careers. Maybe Stroud is different and I think he does go 1 or 2.

I honestly think that the Texans want Bryce Young and if he's gone may trade down rather than settle for stroud at 2. None of the defenders are really worth going 2. Anderson disappeared in the biggest games for Bama.

If they trade down they will take a QB somewhere maybe Hooker or Bennett or even Levis if he slides to round 2. It's pretty rare that a QB drafted 2 ends up being a star.

canadiaggie said:

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Snake Jazz said:

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MaxPower said:

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Snake Jazz said:

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I just don't like Levis, period. I think they have to go QB at 2. Take either Young or Stroud. Don't overthink this. Passing on a QB at 2 is probably the only thing they could do that would genuinely make me want to pull my hair out. After that, if you want to get a receive or a pass rusher or a lineman, then whatever. But they have to have Young or Stroud next season.

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Look I get it but there are some things to keep in mind with Levis. First he was dealing with multiple injuries so it's hard to put too much stock into last year's stats. Second, he is on one of the least talented teams in the toughest conference in football. I still struggle with who you could comp him to that makes sense. Favre was a guy whose college stats were highly underwhelming and missed a lot of time his senior year with an injury from a car crash. That's probably the closest comp I can come up with that worked out but he also didn't go in the first round.

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I watched Levis several times last season and was always bewildered about what scouts saw in the guy. You can make every excuse in the book. Outside of arm strength and size, he just isn't impressive at all. Dude is Sam Darnold 2.0.

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I thought Darnold was supposed to be noodle armed

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I'm not sure if the comparison is exactly is on point...mostly just that he is a QB that all the "experts" thought was a no-doubt NFL starter, and I just had no idea why.