Bad Trump. Rhetoric from DC really heating up on this. Lots of implications with this one that I think are unforeseen by those promoting this idea. I think refiners are going to simply not produce as much if they can't export (which by the way also impacts the whole distillate chain; gas, Jet-A, etc.). Secondly, a lot of refining facilities are just going to start long delayed turnarounds (everybody has been running all out to meet demand). Mexico (source of produce and other consumer goods) and Latin America are going to be hit hard with no apparent alternative sources of supply right now. Feels like we are trading expensive fuel for expensive items in the store in the long-run.

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/23/white-house-ban-diesel-01089294

FWTXAg said:

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Bad Trump you say? Must be another day that ends in y.

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In all honesty, this seems to have started with Grassley in the Senate and complaining farmers. But the idea has caught momentum administration-wise.

Great point here from a real refining guy - operations - that a product export ban would cause US refiners to rapidly turn down supply. It would also give them a window to maintain refineries that are way overdue for turnarounds. We expect a very heavy season of refining… https://t.co/CrLJG8S0sL pic.twitter.com/Ibf1mKvhR3

— Sankey Research (@crudegusher) September 20, 2026

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Refining will continue to push rates but clearly with any downtime it will have a oversized impact and coverage as we've seen over the last week or 2 of US refineries having power issues including petrochemical plants being confused with oil refineries.
But, with cooler weather coming the mix of lighter feedstock and higher rates will help manage distillate pools as maintenance season ramps up into the new year
If any and all turn arounds can be pushed they will be and if they can be minimized in their time they are being done. The ones that are longer and are taken as scheduled are for already delayed maintenance that has to be done, but do not be surprised if the shutdowns are shorter than advertised as when the major work is done and they can put the unit back in service the other jobs will be canceled and put on the scheduled weekly maintenance.
The export ban would be crazy cause even if you ban condensate or oil exports you won't really drive down the cost of refined products. And if they ban the export of finished refined products the refineries will just lower rates to still balance costs and profits... anyone who thinks bans will help us is fooling themselves as no refinery company will make products in a negative profit environment for long without cutting rates and rebalancing the market.

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flashplayer said:

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Yeah, this is a dumb idea that won't do a thing to help inflation or the economy. End the damn wars, that's the only lever here.

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Its a refining issue, not an oil price issue

Reduces refiners margins by taking away customers willing to pay higher prices for product . Also how
Much of the domestic high price is really driven by transport and storage constraints rather than actual diesel supply constraints ? Maybe some sort of very temporary pause or reduction to get storage topped off would be ok but longer term it seems like a bad idea to me.

If this happens, refining oriented stock prices are going to crash for a bit. Great entry points for investing if you want to hold for a bit thereafter. Q3 numbers for the refiners are going to be bonkers based on recent crack spreads. (Group 3 2-1-1 for example, north of $80 bbl; national 3-2-1 is $72 bbl)

PaulsBunions said:

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I hope WH doesnt listen 2 Big Oil who claim diesel export ban wont work Big Oil doesnt need 2 charge sky-high diesel prices 4 Iowa farmers + truckers just filling up They shld cut price 4 US diesel&get the $$ frm other countries IF U CAN EMBARGO CHIPS U CAN EMBARGO DIESEL

— Chuck Grassley (@ChuckGrassley) September 23, 2026

Time to retire Chuck

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Iowa farmers will do fine with Dec corn trading around $5.25

Luigi Vampa said:

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PaulsBunions said:

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I hope WH doesnt listen 2 Big Oil who claim diesel export ban wont work Big Oil doesnt need 2 charge sky-high diesel prices 4 Iowa farmers + truckers just filling up They shld cut price 4 US diesel&get the $$ frm other countries IF U CAN EMBARGO CHIPS U CAN EMBARGO DIESEL

— Chuck Grassley (@ChuckGrassley) September 23, 2026

Time to retire Chuck

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Someone's been taking texting advice from his grand daughter too seriously

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Dude is so old his grandson was born in 1983. He must be getting texting advice from his great granddaughter at this point

A restriction or quota going overseas

That would be a hard yes from me.

First drop the federal tax on diesel ~$0.25 (at least temporarily) and then put pressure on the states to do the same. That will be a good start.

Good trump

This is Bad Trump.

If you work in the O/G sector, especially in refining or trading capacity, I'd really like to hear why you believe it's a good idea

https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/news/2026/09/22/a-diesel-export-ban-would-wreak-havoc-at-home-and-abroad-heres-why

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The takeaway.

Restricting exports is not a solution to high prices. Removing U.S. diesel from the market could instead result in reduced refinery runs, global economic damage and even higher U.S. prices.

Keeping trade flowing gives U.S. refineries the flexibility to keep producing and helps ensure more diesel is available in a tight global market.

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https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/news/2026/09/23/what-they-are-saying-us-diesel-export-ban-is-a-bad-idea

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[url=https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/news/2026/09/23/what-they-are-saying-us-diesel-export-ban-is-a-bad-idea][/url]Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas): "It would have massive harm to the refining industry. We refine more diesel than we consume, and it would end up forcing refiners to reduce production. So it would backfire badly."

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[url=https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/news/2026/09/23/what-they-are-saying-us-diesel-export-ban-is-a-bad-idea][/url]

I think there are other mechanisms that can be applied and would yield better results, but I agree with the thought process

doubledog said:

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First drop the federal tax on diesel ~$0.25 (at least temporarily) and then put pressure on the states to do the same. That will be a good start.

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Farm diesel isnt taxed

Awesome. Great timing on my part to start a job an hour away!

Hoyt Ag said:

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Agreed. They stirred up a hornets nest that they under estimated and have no idea how to get out of this mess

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100%. And now his ego is getting in the way of a good solution.

Trump, you can't ban diesel exports… my royalties may go down from the high they are currently at

flashplayer said:

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Yeah, this is a dumb idea that won't do a thing to help inflation or the economy. End the damn wars, that's the only lever here.

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If we don't finish off Iran while we have them on the ropes that will be a problem for decades. Amazes me how people don't see this. You can argue that we shouldn't have gone in but the window was there and the value in taking Iran off the chessboard as a threat has incredible upside.

FWIW I don't see Trump actually doing this but I do see him using the threat of doing it to his advantage in dealing with Europe and elsewhere. He is also using it to virtue signal to farmers he is putting all options on the table.

Actually doing it is a bad idea though.

For whatever its worth, according to Reuters, there is no ban coming.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-diesel-futures-fall-after-report-export-ban-plan-which-white-house-denies-2026-09-23/

Logos Stick said:

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flashplayer said:

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Yeah, this is a dumb idea that won't do a thing to help inflation or the economy. End the damn wars, that's the only lever here.

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Its a refining issue, not an oil price issue

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More specifically is a specific type of oil feed stock supply issue. Our refineries are optimized for a heavy crude. They need middle east, Venezuelan/ Columbian, or Canadian crude.

No Spin Ag said:

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t_J_e_C_x said:

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It’d be less damaging to detonate a thermonuclear bomb on Wall Street https://t.co/W5d3b6r880

— Head in the Office (@headintheoffice) September 23, 2026

I'm just fully convinced his sycophant, low IQ administration has no idea what they're doing anymore.

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You think the administration is, or ever has been, anyone but Trump? At least according to Trump?

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I was being kind to them... I don't think they ever knew what they were doing cause I never believed Trump had a clue what he's doing either.

Old McDonald said:

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Rapier108 said:

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For whatever its worth, according to Reuters, there is no ban coming.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-diesel-futures-fall-after-report-export-ban-plan-which-white-house-denies-2026-09-23/

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god bless whoever leaked the plan to the press and thereby forced them to scrap it after the blowback

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Energy Secretary already said this morning while everyone was reeeing that this wasn't going to happen. He did an interview with the WSJ pretty shortly after Trump bloviated on that. You can see my post from hours ago on this.

And Chuck Grassely needs to STFU. Pretty much everyone out there is against this.

t_J_e_C_x said:

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It’d be less damaging to detonate a thermonuclear bomb on Wall Street https://t.co/W5d3b6r880

— Head in the Office (@headintheoffice) September 23, 2026

I'm just fully convinced his sycophant, low IQ administration has no idea what they're doing anymore.

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I really trust a twitter handle called head in the office.

The talk on this thread is by a handful of people who don't know what they're talking about.

The liberals are against it, so it must be the right thing to do.