Why bring the Longhorns into this? Take it to the Old Rivalries board!

shiftyandquick said:

---

I guess Trump and his team are finally trying to address kitchen table affordability issues before the mid-terms, even if it means screwing over their cattle industry allies (for a short time, just for the election, and then return to normal high tariffs and high prices).

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6043387-donald-trump-us-ground-beef-tariffs-higher-rate-temporary-pause/

---

Always take these Hill articles with a grain of salt knowing the explicit bias in all their articles.

This quote did catch my eye:
"We have a commitment that this beef will be sold at 25 percent below current market prices," the president continued. "This deal will reduce prices for Americans while giving space for our Great American Beef Herd to grow again."

He appears to imply that one of the main factors of Domestic beef price inflation is the # of beef producing cattle has fallen.

From ChatGPT on Domestic beef cattle volumes.

Using the five most recently completed calendar years, 20212025, U.S. cattle supplies contracted substantially, although heavier carcass weights kept beef output from declining as sharply.
Year
U.S. cattle inventory
Commercial beef production2021
93.6 million head
27.9 billion lb.
2022
91.9 million head
28.3 billion lb.
2023
89.3 million head
27.0 billion lb.
2024
87.2 million head
27.0 billion lb.
2025
86.7 million head
Approximately 26.0 billion lb.
All cattle and calves as of January 1.
Carcass-weight basis.

Five-year range

• Total cattle inventory ranged from approximately 86.7 million to 93.6 million head.
• That represents a contraction of roughly 6.9 million head, or 7.4%, from 2021 to 2025.
• Commercial beef production ranged from approximately 26.0 billion to 28.3 billion pounds.
• Production peaked in 2022 and fell approximately 8% by 2025.
• The beef-cow breeding herd also declinedfrom about 31.2 million cows in 2021 to approximately 27.9 million in 2025, an 11% reduction.

The key business implication is that available cattle numbers tightened considerably more than beef tonnage. Record or near-record carcass weights helped processors maintain output, but they could not fully compensate for fewer animals. That tightening has supported elevated feeder-cattle and fed-cattle prices and reduced utilization flexibility for beef processors.
USDA characterizes the decline as part of a cattle-cycle contraction driven by drought, high feed costs, cow liquidation and limited heifer retention. The January 2025 herd was approximately 8% below its 2019 peak. Sources: USDA NASS cattle inventory reports, USDA ERS cattle and beef statistics, and USDA's January 2026 outlook.

American Hardwood said:

---

Why bring the Longhorns into this? Take it to the Old Rivalries board!

---

I think tu should be forced to be without BEVO going forward. This is a precious resource and should immediately be harvested in the national interest.

Quote:

---

We have a commitment that this beef will be sold at 25 percent below current market prices," the president continued. "This deal will reduce prices for Americans while giving space for our Great American Beef Herd to grow again."

---

So this is for ground beef, but I want some Wagyu ribeyes at 25% below current market

Quote:

---

I guess Trump and his team are finally trying to address kitchen table affordability issues before the mid-terms

---

One of my favorite pastimes has become watching people who complain about affordability and have no understanding of why things have gotten unaffordable.

Just this morning I heard some lady screeching about health insurance costs, fully convinced it's Trump's fault. No doubt she was fully on board with Obamacare as it got implemented.

It would be far more entertaining if they were the only ones who suffered from their ignorance and bad choices. Unfortunately, they screw things up for all of us.

austinAG90 said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

Yes, this is what intelligent political machines do in order to win elections and be in power.

Not just good Trump, but most excellent Trump.

Don't forget to enjoy the Freedom 250 Indycar race starting Sunday at 16:30 UTC.

---

Price fixing in any commodity has never worked

---

Good thing no one is doing that. Tariff relief nor tariffs =/= price fixing. HTH.

Sq 17 said:

---

Also the corporate interests are having to close packing plants because even at $7 for ground beef the packers are saying they are losing money


The issues in cattle is not about price fixing issue ( IMO ) it is about a business model that was destined to fail eventually. There is not enough money in the cow-calf business to make it worth the land owners interest to be In the cow calf business ( It is at best a very time consuming hobby with a terrible annual ROI)
People getting old and getting out of the business has sent herd numbers down and calf prices through the roof.
I think eventually people just start eating less beef and a new normal emerges but for now more people wanting beef than current herd size can deliver

---

Being in the cow-calf ranching business, we are making pretty good money right now. But there is an economy of scale to it. Smaller herds are where you might find that the juice isn't worth the squeeze. I find it a little hard to believe that the packers are losing money. In normal times, it seemed everyone upstream of the producers were where the money was being made. Can't see how they are losing money unless consumption numbers have dropped due to the prices.

This is what AI says about quotas in 2026, related to imports from specific foreign countries. This helps us to understand what this 300,000 MT exception is like in relation to normal imports:

Quote:

---

2026 country quotas
For 2026, the pre-existing in-quota allocations included: Australia 378,214 MT, New Zealand 213,402 MT, Argentina 20,000 MT, Uruguay 20,000 MT, United Kingdom 13,000 MT, and "Other Countries" 52,005 MT. Canada and Mexico have no numerical beef-quota limit under applicable trade arrangements.

---

Agree with you hardwood about packers angling for a better outcome for themselves. They simply are not designed to lose money.

I have been in the commercial cow business for 30 years and first time I have done well, but frankly I am tired and considering selling out.

If prices drop to historic levels again, I am going to quit. The young kids coming behind me will not take all
my country as they can't afford that nut so more small producers that can't do it full time….more imported beef equals less producers…..

Enjoy the bugs they force you to eat in 2100

American Ranchers own more than 2.7 million hectares (approximately 6.67 in Argentina alone) that are strictly beef cattle for the US market and abroad. "Importing" foreign beef is a facade.

austinAG90 said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

Yes, this is what intelligent political machines do in order to win elections and be in power.

Not just good Trump, but most excellent Trump.

Don't forget to enjoy the Freedom 250 Indycar race starting Sunday at 16:30 UTC.

---

Price fixing in any commodity has never worked

---

Quote:

---

The U.S. will allow up to 300,000 metric tons of ground beef to be imported without an "out-of-quota tariff"

... more imported beef makes its way into the country.

---

Above quote from the article in the OP.

Bringing more supply to the market is the exact opposite of price fixing.

Price fixing is anti-competitve action between participants on the same side of a market to maintain the market condition.

Hagen95 said:

---

Sounds like the beef growers lobby didn't grease the wheels properly and ranchers are now going to get screwed.

---

this won't really have much impact on live cattle prices.

This is to help out McDonalds and other fast food corporations that rely solely on ground beef

austinAG90 said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

Yes, this is what intelligent political machines do in order to win elections and be in power.

Not just good Trump, but most excellent Trump.

Don't forget to enjoy the Freedom 250 Indycar race starting Sunday at 16:30 UTC.

---

Price fixing in any commodity has never worked

---

Well, while this IS meddling with the markets, it is not price fixing...

If you are running cattle on other people's land in this part of Texas there is money to be made in 2026

But as little as 3 years ago Hay was approaching $100 a roll if you could find it and calf prices were not near what they are now
Which probably started the trend of people getting out

aggiedent said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

austinAG90 said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

Yes, this is what intelligent political machines do in order to win elections and be in power.

Not just good Trump, but most excellent Trump.

Don't forget to enjoy the Freedom 250 Indycar race starting Sunday at 16:30 UTC.

---

Price fixing in any commodity has never worked

---

Good thing no one is doing that. Tariff relief nor tariffs =/= price fixing. HTH.

---

So in the 75 years since WWII, when conservative economists & republicans called tariffs essentially price fixing, they were in fact lying???

No……. they weren't, were they. It's you doing the mental gymnastics needed to support Trump that's lying.

---

You have some quotes or links?

You can call them taxes and there have been some warnings to suppliers to not leverage tariffs to price fix, but how would adding a tariff to something fix the end price at a certain amount? Makes no sense or cents?

I just wish all these folks who can identify that consumers ultimately pay for the tariffs can see that is exactly how corporate taxes function.

A cohesive and coherent trade policy that includes tariffs and trade agreements to prevent dumping and to maintain essential industries is a good thing

DJT Tearing up trade agreements that he negotiated and signed less than 10 years ago and starting a unilateral trade war with basically everyone is not a good idea

Sq 17 said:

---

A cohesive and coherent trade policy that includes tariffs and trade agreements to prevent dumping and to maintain essential industries is a good thing

DJT Tearing up trade agreements that he negotiated and signed less than 10 years ago and starting a unilateral trade war with basically everyone is not a good idea

---

Okay, I see your issue. You are unwilling to recognize that Trump actually did what you suggest and did not do what you state he did.

You renegotiate deals when the other side of the deal behaves poorly and doesn't live up to their obligations. See JCPOA for similar.

Whenever the government gets involved, price will go where it was always going to, after a delay, but harder and faster once it gets going.

BQ_90 said:

---

Hagen95 said:

---

Sounds like the beef growers lobby didn't grease the wheels properly and ranchers are now going to get screwed.

---

this won't really have much impact on live cattle prices.

This is to help out McDonalds and other fast food corporations that rely solely on ground beef

---

How is flooding the market with cheap foreign beef not going to impact the price of beef? I can tell you the family members of mine that raise beef are watching this very closely.

Hagen95 said:

---

BQ_90 said:

---

Hagen95 said:

---

Sounds like the beef growers lobby didn't grease the wheels properly and ranchers are now going to get screwed.

---

this won't really have much impact on live cattle prices.

This is to help out McDonalds and other fast food corporations that rely solely on ground beef

---

How is flooding the market with cheap foreign beef not going to impact the price of beef? I can tell you the family members of mine that raise beef are watching this very closely.

---

Well for one thing, like most of Trumps big announcements, the likelihood is that in the end nothing actually comes of it.

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Whenever the government gets involved, price will go where it was always going to, after a delay, but harder and faster once it gets going.

---

This. Earlier this year we had news that Argentina was going to import frozen beef to the US. Then that Mexico was going to be allowed once again to import some limited live cattle to the US.

Beet feeder cattle prices hit an all time high this year and today are only about 14 percent off this all time high. So a 7 month old steer or heifer fresh off the cow at 600 pounds is worth about 2,400 today. Great prices.

The current Texas Drought is much bigger news than Trumps announcement today.

Oct 26 Feeder cattle prices actually closed up Today v

Hagen95 said:

---

BQ_90 said:

---

Hagen95 said:

---

Sounds like the beef growers lobby didn't grease the wheels properly and ranchers are now going to get screwed.

---

this won't really have much impact on live cattle prices.

This is to help out McDonalds and other fast food corporations that rely solely on ground beef

---

How is flooding the market with cheap foreign beef not going to impact the price of beef? I can tell you the family members of mine that raise beef are watching this very closely.

---

first off this is only a 90 day measure. Even at 25% less, it's still not cheap beef. You're family members are already getting the highest price for beef, EVER.

Using numbers in the article beef would drop a little over a dollar a pound, still putting ground beef over $5 a pound.

My guess very little of this beef makes it to stores, it'll all go to fast food joint.

flown-the-coop said:

---

Yes, this is what intelligent political machines do in order to win elections and be in power.

Not just good Trump, but most excellent Trump.

Don't forget to enjoy the Freedom 250 Indycar race starting Sunday at 16:30 UTC.

---

Or even better, we could just not tariff. Politicians don't get bonus points for undoing their own mistakes.

BQ_90 said:

---

Hagen95 said:

---

BQ_90 said:

---

Hagen95 said:

---

Sounds like the beef growers lobby didn't grease the wheels properly and ranchers are now going to get screwed.

---

this won't really have much impact on live cattle prices.

This is to help out McDonalds and other fast food corporations that rely solely on ground beef

---

How is flooding the market with cheap foreign beef not going to impact the price of beef? I can tell you the family members of mine that raise beef are watching this very closely.

---

first off this is only a 90 day measure. Even at 25% less, it's still not cheap beef. You're family members are already getting the highest price for beef, EVER.

Using numbers in the article beef would drop a little over a dollar a pound, still putting ground beef over $5 a pound.

My guess very little of this beef makes it to stores, it'll all go to fast food joint.

---

My family has been raising beef since before WWI so they have seen it all for sure. These prices lately are finally making up for the some long periods of crappy beef prices. I tend to agree with the previous posters that this seems like a lot of smoke and mirrors for mid year election purposes only.

The foreign beef sought after now is to replace the foreign beef supply cut down by the screwworm outbreak.