samurai_science said:

---

Blitz88 said:

---

The hill country / Highland Lakes (especially Lake Travis) don't need anymore right now … hope it goes elsewhere.

---

Travis can take a lot more

---

Not really, not without allowing several areas to flood.

Hardcore Greg said:

---

TyHolden said:

---

Im Gipper said:

---

You shouldn't go through New Orleans either way. It's out of the way!

---

We were planning on stopping there. My kids have never been there and wanted to go to a museum. That's certainly not happening.

---

Pack heat if bringing women and children. And never relax.

---

When I was moving to Georgia I pull off in Slidell or somewhere near N.O. Took a wrong turn, late at night. I've never been so scared in my life. I was packing and that gave me great piece of mind.

+1 Pack heat.

Now tracking to Houston. Corpus loses out yet again.

samurai_science said:

---

Blitz88 said:

---

The hill country / Highland Lakes (especially Lake Travis) don't need anymore right now … hope it goes elsewhere.

---

Travis can take a lot more

---

While Travis is a flood control reservoir, both it and Buchannan are at conservation pool. All flows in must be released. Travis is currently about 2.5 feet into flood pool so they are actively releasing water downstream.

Buchannan cannot store extra water. Conservation pool is 1,020.00 feet and the emergency spillway elevation is 1,020.49 feet. The very top of the dam is only 1,025.50 feet. Any water that comes in must and will be released.

The next upstream lake on the Colorado that can store water is OH Ivie.

another media hyped nothing burger storm. Cant wait to see reporters reporting from rain puddles.

samurai_science said:

---

Blitz88 said:

---

The hill country / Highland Lakes (especially Lake Travis) don't need anymore right now … hope it goes elsewhere.

---

Travis can take a lot more

---

Not really. Physically it can temporarily take more flood waters, but it has to be immediately drawn down to conservation pool level of 681'

HaroldShipmanAg said:

---

another media hyped nothing burger storm. Cant wait to see reporters reporting from rain puddles.

---

stop watching the media then

Several 12z models have taken a marked turn south inc many of the high-quality Google DeepMind ensembles. It appears that many expect a continued trend of the center nestling back and/or reforming under the deepest shear to the south, tugging Bertha southward. This is a… pic.twitter.com/k74qldKjgq

— 🌀 Flhurricane 🌀 (@cfhc) July 21, 2026

If we did not have shear and dry air we’d likely have a hurricane this morning. Impressive circulation. pic.twitter.com/MuuNFWNCVI

— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) July 21, 2026

Rossticus said:

---

Several 12z models have taken a marked turn south inc many of the high-quality Google DeepMind ensembles. It appears that many expect a continued trend of the center nestling back and/or reforming under the deepest shear to the south, tugging Bertha southward. This is a… pic.twitter.com/k74qldKjgq

— 🌀 Flhurricane 🌀 (@cfhc) July 21, 2026

---

Family in El Campo definitely don't need any more rain. Their farm got f**ed over last weekend.

GeorgiAg said:

---

Hardcore Greg said:

---

TyHolden said:

---

Im Gipper said:

---

You shouldn't go through New Orleans either way. It's out of the way!

---

We were planning on stopping there. My kids have never been there and wanted to go to a museum. That's certainly not happening.

---

Pack heat if bringing women and children. And never relax.

---

When I was moving to Georgia I pull off in Slidell or somewhere near N.O. Took a wrong turn, late at night. I've never been so scared in my life. I was packing and that gave me great piece of mind.

+1 Pack heat.

---

I used to live in Slidell when I was a wee lad. Town's motto should be "As Seen On Cops".

More models are sending this more southwest and west for a Corpus - Port Lavaca path. That will take remnants inland toward S Central Texas

B-1 83 said:

---

More models are sending this more southwest and west for a Corpus - Port Lavaca path. That will take remnants inland toward S Central Texas

---

That's not good. I wish it would jump over the hill county and just land on top of Abilene. We could use the rain out here still

Not sure where some of the fear mongering over Bertha is coming from but pretty much nothing has changed today. It is still expected to be a remnant low/disturbance by the time it reaches Texas. https://t.co/mm1jeDiONL

— Matt Lanza (@mattlanza) July 21, 2026

rca21978 said:

---

Not sure where some of the fear mongering over Bertha is coming from but pretty much nothing has changed today. It is still expected to be a remnant low/disturbance by the time it reaches Texas. https://t.co/mm1jeDiONL

— Matt Lanza (@mattlanza) July 21, 2026

---

Says the guy who was catastrophically wrong about the risk of Beryl to the Houston Area.

FWIW, about half of the ensemble members in the latest runs of Google's Deep Mind AI models (that were among the best at forecasting last years storms) are showing a more southerly track with more strengthening (due to less interaction with land) before hitting the middle to lower Texas coast as a strong Tropical Storm on Thursday/Friday.

TexAgs91 said:

---

Breaking news. There will be rain along the Texas coastline late Thursday night/Friday AM.

Thank you for your attention to this matter.

---

Biggest impact might be causing a scrub for the SpaceX launch if the southerly track verifies and the windfield gets there too soon on Thursday

txags92 said:

---

TexAgs91 said:

---

Breaking news. There will be rain along the Texas coastline late Thursday night/Friday AM.

Thank you for your attention to this matter.

---

Biggest impact might be causing a scrub for the SpaceX launch if the southerly track verifies and the windfield gets there too soon on Thursday

---

So that means my stock is going to drop another five bucks.

torrid said:

---

txags92 said:

---

TexAgs91 said:

---

Breaking news. There will be rain along the Texas coastline late Thursday night/Friday AM.

Thank you for your attention to this matter.

---

Biggest impact might be causing a scrub for the SpaceX launch if the southerly track verifies and the windfield gets there too soon on Thursday

---

So that means my stock is going to drop another five bucks.

---

Another buying opportunity...

txags92 said:

---

rca21978 said:

---

Not sure where some of the fear mongering over Bertha is coming from but pretty much nothing has changed today. It is still expected to be a remnant low/disturbance by the time it reaches Texas. https://t.co/mm1jeDiONL

— Matt Lanza (@mattlanza) July 21, 2026

---

Says the guy who was catastrophically wrong about the risk of Beryl to the Houston Area.

---

Who is the meteorologist predicting the weather with 100% accuracy? Sounds like there may be more to this.

Im Gipper said:

---

txags92 said:

---

rca21978 said:

---

Not sure where some of the fear mongering over Bertha is coming from but pretty much nothing has changed today. It is still expected to be a remnant low/disturbance by the time it reaches Texas. https://t.co/mm1jeDiONL

— Matt Lanza (@mattlanza) July 21, 2026

---

Says the guy who was catastrophically wrong about the risk of Beryl to the Houston Area.

---

Who is the meteorologist predicting the weather with 100% accuracy? Sounds like there may be more to this.

---

Oh, I am not demanding 100% accuracy, but Lanza was particularly aggressive in ridiculing people who were seeing signs from progressive model runs moving Beryl closer and closer to Houston and questioned whether Houston should be concerned. It is one thing to stick to the official forecast line and to be dismissive of individual model anomalies, but forcefully ridiculing others publicly for disagreeing and then refusing to own up to it afterwards when they turned out to be right makes him a puss in my opinion.

txags92 said:

---

TexAgs91 said:

---

Breaking news. There will be rain along the Texas coastline late Thursday night/Friday AM.

Thank you for your attention to this matter.

---

Biggest impact might be causing a scrub for the SpaceX launch if the southerly track verifies and the windfield gets there too soon on Thursday

---

It's going to be borderline... The biggest issue isn't winds. It's thunderstorm and lightning potential. There is near zero convective inhibition meaning any small shower near the pad or along the flight corridor could create anvil, cumulus-cloud, electric-field, or lightning despite there being virtually no severe-weather threat.

txags92 said:

---

rca21978 said:

---

Not sure where some of the fear mongering over Bertha is coming from but pretty much nothing has changed today. It is still expected to be a remnant low/disturbance by the time it reaches Texas. https://t.co/mm1jeDiONL

— Matt Lanza (@mattlanza) July 21, 2026

---

Says the guy who was catastrophically wrong about the risk of Beryl to the Houston Area.

---

To be fair, I think a lot of people underestimated what became a decent Cat2 that sliced through the combination of highest population and mature tree density in thy metro area.

Further west there would be more, largely newer construction with few mature trees. Further east, a lot more trees but more bay and generally fewer people.

The path optimized both.

The problem i see with Bertha is a few mile shift to the south can move the landfall 30, 50, even 100 miles west.

Kenneth_2003 said:

---

txags92 said:

---

rca21978 said:

---

Not sure where some of the fear mongering over Bertha is coming from but pretty much nothing has changed today. It is still expected to be a remnant low/disturbance by the time it reaches Texas. https://t.co/mm1jeDiONL

— Matt Lanza (@mattlanza) July 21, 2026

---

Says the guy who was catastrophically wrong about the risk of Beryl to the Houston Area.

---

To be fair, I think a lot of people underestimated what became a decent Cat2 that sliced through the combination of highest population and mature tree density in thy metro area.

Further west there would be more, largely newer construction with few mature trees. Further east, a lot more trees but more bay and generally fewer people.

The path optimized both.

---

Yeah, I don't take issue with him being wrong...weather guys get it wrong a lot. I took issue with his arrogance ahead of the storm and then not stepping up to take his lumps after the fact.

Charpie said:

---

B-1 83 said:

---

More models are sending this more southwest and west for a Corpus - Port Lavaca path. That will take remnants inland toward S Central Texas

---

That's not good. I wish it would jump over the hill county and just land on top of Abilene. We could use the rain out here still

---

Shouldn't have moved to the desert !

NOAA

Heading toward Crystal Beach per the official government site

NOAA

I'm only here for the summer. I'll be back in Aggieland by football season.

austinAG90 said:

---

samurai_science said:

---

Blitz88 said:

---

The hill country / Highland Lakes (especially Lake Travis) don't need anymore right now … hope it goes elsewhere.

---

Travis can take a lot more

---

Not really, not without allowing several areas to flood.

---

Its got another 33 feet to go before it even gets to the top

Is I10 still safe tomorrow?

5Amp said:

---

Heading toward Crystal Beach per the official government site

---

Hopefully it's just enough to wash the white trash away. At least for a little while.

Bertha Schmertha.... I just wanna know if Meadowbrook is gonna a be 90 degree or cart path only on Saturday.

and why is the weather report for a tropical depression posted in the Politics Forum?

zephyr88 said:

---

and why is the weather report for a tropical depression posted in the Politics Forum?

---

Storms have been political ever since W destroyed New Orleans with one.