***Iran [Military Action Thread]***[See Staff Note in OP]

3,029,393 Views | 13922 Replies | Last: 3 hrs ago by nortex97
American Hardwood
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But it's odd they wouldn't just say that. The reporting used to say 'drone strike' or whatever all the time. Now it's just 'attacked' or something equally vague.
Ducks4brkfast
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American Hardwood said:

But it's odd they wouldn't just say that. The reporting used to say 'drone strike' or whatever all the time. Now it's just 'attacked' or something equally vague.

It's been like that for a good while. Ships report being "hit by an unknown object" and it's either not known for a good while what it was, or never known/publicly reported what it was.
Jock 07
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https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/saudis-plan-assault-houthis-break-red-sea-chokehold-2026-10-02/
YouBet
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Jock 07 said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/saudis-plan-assault-houthis-break-red-sea-chokehold-2026-10-02/

Advertise what you are going to do. SMRT.
Ag with kids
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YouBet said:

Jock 07 said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/saudis-plan-assault-houthis-break-red-sea-chokehold-2026-10-02/

Advertise what you are going to do. SMRT.

That was my thought...

Who tf thought it would be a good idea to a) advertise that and b) print that story?
You can turn off signatures, btw
nortex97
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TLDR: It's working.
Prosperdick
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Dobro Turtlebane
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Ag with kids said:

YouBet said:

Jock 07 said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/saudis-plan-assault-houthis-break-red-sea-chokehold-2026-10-02/

Advertise what you are going to do. SMRT.

That was my thought...

Who tf thought it would be a good idea to a) advertise that and b) print that story?


We would spend months training Iraqi and Afg forces - from rifle companies to "special" forces - and then spend weeks planning kinetic or even nonkinetic operations. Days before the ops, they would usually broadcast the op plans to the enemy. The opfor would leave the area, we would effectively do a useless show of force to make the populace think we were doing something, then we'd do it all over again in a few weeks when the opfor returned.

Tribes are much more binding than state borders. They didn't want to fight their extended tribes, which we could never comprehend. They wanted to wear cool guy gear and look tough and steal cucumbers from street vendors, but they had no interest in actually killing someone who might have been an al Janabi or a Moyad 5 generations back.
nortex97
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China has (apparently) cut off the IRGC from signals/imaging data (presumably including their 'commercial' ones).

Since they can't ship cheap oil to the CCP, they are not really a valued partner at this point, imho.

IOW, they are out of money.
ErnestEndeavor
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Reports of Saudi/Yemini govt strikes against the Houthis.
ErnestEndeavor
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Fox News also reporting that the USS George HW Bush carrier has arrived in Thailand and the crew will spend a few days in ****et including attending a US - Thailand soccer match.

Edit, I guess that word is banned for phonetically sounding like something else. It's a real place I promise.

Interesting as I did not realize that carrier group had left the region. The Roosevelt as far as I know has not yet arrived on scene.

If I'm not mistaken the USS George Washington is out there but it may be now the only carrier group in the region.

All of the talk about three carrier groups being there at the same time for increased combat operations seems to be untrue.
halfastros81
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lol'd at the autoedit.
ErnestEndeavor
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Fox News reporting the internationally recognized Yemeni government has launched an operation with the support of Saudi Arabia, with the goal of retaking the entire country.

Quote:


"Today, I announce the start of military operations to retake the remaining territory of the republic and extend the authority of the state and its institutions across the entire national territory," Yemeni President Rashad al-Alimi said in a televised address.

Rashad al-Alimi's announcement came amid reports Yemen's armed forces reported strikes in Sanaa and Saada, marking a new escalation in Yemen's renewed fighting, which has flared as a spillover from the broader war between Iran and the United States.

Yemen's armed forces, aligned with the internationally recognized government, said early Sunday they were conducting strikes against the Houthis in the capital Sanaa and the group's stronghold of Saada.

A spokesperson said the forces were targeting "vital targets."

Houthi-run Al Masirah TV had earlier reported an attack on Sanaa that it said was carried out by Saudi Arabia.
GAC06
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I doubt we'll have three there for any meaningful time. Washington will likely return to the pacific once Roosevelt arrives
nortex97
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Not sure if this should be here or the other (political) thread on Iran but it's great to see strife like this among their ruling class of 4 letter words.

Quote:

The Islamic Republic's internal conflict is erupting in public as its officials turn on one another and a record-low rial pushes the economy toward a crash.

On October 4, MP Mehdi Kouchakzadeh erupted in parliament over a plan to sell up to $10,000 to each adult Iranian. The central bank has set aside up to $2 billion for the scheme while the dollar trades around 270,000 toman.

Kouchakzadeh called the plan a crime. Buying the full quota costs roughly 2.5 billion toman. Families struggling with food, rent and medicine cannot afford it. Wealthy buyers and dealers can. If everyone bought the full amount, the entire $2 billion would reach only 200,000 people.

He demanded to know why those dollars should end up "under the pillows of the rich" instead of paying for medicine for patients with epidermolysis bullosa. He said the crisis mattered more than the Strait of Hormuz and declared that, if he did not fear hell, he would set himself on fire outside the central bank.

Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf then said he had learned of the policy through the media and did not understand why it was approved. The regime's own leaders are publicly fighting over how to spend dollars they cannot afford to waste.

The rial has lost more than half its value against the dollar in a year. Inflation is above 70 percent. Iranians are fleeing into dollars and gold because each new currency drop threatens their savings and raises the cost of essentials.

The Islamic Republic blames an external economic war. Inside its own parliament, officials are accusing the central bank of helping the rich while ordinary Iranians pay for the collapse. That fight is now happening on camera, in public, as the currency keeps falling.

Prosperdick
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Even the NY Times is admitting how dire things are for the IRGC.
samurai_science
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Prosperdick said:


Even the NY Times is admitting how dire things are for the IRGC.

I bet the IRGC is still eating.
Buglerank62
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Seems like this strategy is working very well.
benchmark
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Prosperdick said:

Even the NY Times is admitting how dire things are for the IRGC.

Sorta. Closing NYT paragraphs paint the picture more as s Mexican standoff. If the NYT accurately reported the situation they would say; "if necessary, the US and GCC allies can maintain the naval blockade almost indefinintely."
javajaws
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benchmark said:

Prosperdick said:

Even the NY Times is admitting how dire things are for the IRGC.

Sorta. Closing NYT paragraphs paint the picture more as s Mexican standoff. If the NYT accurately reported the situation they would say; "if necessary, the US and GCC allies can maintain the naval blockade almost indefinintely."

It may be a standoff between the US and the IRGC, but it is not really a standoff at all. And that's because there are more parties yet to come into play here. Namely the Iranian people and the non-IRGC military of Iran. I think after not much longer the people REALLY start to protest again and at that point whats left of the non-IRGC military overthrows their government and more specifically the IRGC. At least that's the way I hope this turns out.

In the end though, probably not much will change. You end up with new leadership and a few token concessions on nukes. Oil flows again and everyone is happy until Iran starts to misbehave again in a few years after rebuilding.
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Ben Franklin
Claude!
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benchmark said:

Prosperdick said:

Even the NY Times is admitting how dire things are for the IRGC.

Sorta. Closing NYT paragraphs paint the picture more as s Mexican standoff. If the NYT accurately reported the situation they would say; "if necessary, the US and GCC allies can maintain the naval blockade almost indefinintely."

The standoff isn't against our military capabilities; it's against the political will to maintain the blockade. Fortunately, I expect maintaining that level of political will is a much lower bar than instances where we have meaningful boots on the ground. If I had to guess, we're going to start seeing more stories about how the blockade is starving the poor Iranians and should be lifted for humanitarian reasons.
ErnestEndeavor
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The Yemeni government announced they have retaken the key islands in the Bab al Mandab strait from the Houthis and claim the government forces now have complete control over the strait again.
YouBet
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ErnestEndeavor said:

The Yemeni government announced they have retaken the key islands in the Bab al Mandab strait from the Houthis and claim the government forces now have complete control over the strait again.

IOW, they paid the locals more than the Houthis did.
FIDO95
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ErnestEndeavor said:

The Yemeni government announced they have retaken the key islands in the Bab al Mandab strait from the Houthis and claim the government forces now have complete control over the strait again.


We should just continue to let the Arabs take care of the barbarians in their backyard. They can get a lot more tribal than we can. The IRG is going to wish the Americans had been around to surrender to when the Persians take back their country.



Didn't realize it posted caption in Spanish. Essentially, Saudi mercenaries are running over fleeing Houthis for sport. There are worse videos than this one showing up.
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YouBet
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Footage from GTA 6?
MouthBQ98
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Play stupid games….

Has always applied to terrorist groups
P.U.T.U
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Saudi mercenaries and the Yemeni army are chasing the Houthis along the coast of the Mandeb Strait and running them over with their vehicles

They had a score to settle

It's probably safer as the mercenaries don't have any muzzle discipline. Most come from Darfar and Sudan
YouBet
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P.U.T.U said:

Saudi mercenaries and the Yemeni army are chasing the Houthis along the coast of the Mandeb Strait and running them over with their vehicles

They had a score to settle

It's probably safer as the mercenaries don't have any muzzle discipline. Most come from Darfar and Sudan


It frankly shouldn't be that hard to defeat an entire people who are drug addicts and high 24/7. KSA should be able to do this if they are 23% competent.
txags92
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YouBet said:

P.U.T.U said:

Saudi mercenaries and the Yemeni army are chasing the Houthis along the coast of the Mandeb Strait and running them over with their vehicles

They had a score to settle

It's probably safer as the mercenaries don't have any muzzle discipline. Most come from Darfar and Sudan


It frankly shouldn't be that hard to defeat an entire people who are drug addicts and high 24/7. KSA should be able to do this if they are 23% competent.

Narrator: Sadly, the KSA was not 23% competent.
nortex97
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Sounds like chaos. Apparently the primary Iranian oil field has some fires going. Not sure if serious/sabotage etc.
Fitch
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Read a while back that fires in the fields could also be an intentional, engineered, strategy to avoid having to shut in wells (and risk losing them wholesale) given Iran is totally out of storage space for product extracted from the ground.

No telling if that's what's going on or extra-military action, but the oil market gurus on Bloomberg TV were talking about it as a strategy to delay the biggest effects of the blockade some months back.
ErnestEndeavor
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Yemeni government forces and Saudi Arabia are claiming they have retaken the port city of Mocha as part of a lightning offensive.

Numerous reports that Turkey and Pakistan are sending troops.
nortex97
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That would make sense. I have read that they have done a horrible job maintaining their oil fields for decades. Unsurprising for a bunch of fanatics. Thx.
MaxPower
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Fitch said:

Read a while back that fires in the fields could also be an intentional, engineered, strategy to avoid having to shut in wells (and risk losing them wholesale) given Iran is totally out of storage space for product extracted from the ground.

No telling if that's what's going on or extra-military action, but the oil market gurus on Bloomberg TV were talking about it as a strategy to delay the biggest effects of the blockade some months back.
Any petroleum engineers on here? I hear about this a lot. Curious if there are or could be technologies that allow wells to be easily "turned off" in the event storage is full but also easily turned back on. It seems like that would be preferable to burning supply you may need at some future date. Most of these ME producers should be looking into that.
nortex97
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Not me but grok says otherwise. Months back someone here reported that when they were in Tehran the flaring/fires commonly darkened the sky etc.
Quote:

A Kpler assessment on October 5 said Iranian crude exports have largely stopped, usable onshore storage is limited (on the order of 39 million barrels in that estimate), and tanks could fill within roughly 2024 days, forcing production shut-ins. That constraint is on crude, not on flare-gas tanks. If wells are shut in because oil cannot be stored or exported, associated-gas volumesand therefore flaringwould tend to fall, not rise. Separate war damage at South Pars has cut gas and condensate output, which is a supply problem for power and refining, not an explanation for higher oil-field flaring.

So Iran flares more than peers mainly because capture infrastructure has lagged oil production for years. It is not flaring more today because storage is full; the current storage ceiling is a crude-export problem that, if anything, pushes operators toward shutting wells in.

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