How much money do the people with guns need to stay in power?

The people aren't going to overthrow the government. I do think Iran is in real trouble, but it's much more likely that they respond with escalation rather than concessions. Long term they are cooked (probably) but not in the next two weeks.

nortex97 said:

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docb said:

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2 weeks.........seems to be a lot of 2 weeks mentioned in this conflict. Let's not forget there are other countries out there with the ability to help keep Iran afloat in this ordeal and would do it just to show a message.

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What nations do you think have the financial means/resources/will to prop up the IRGC subjugation of 90 million people vs. US sanctions?

Genuinely curious, as I am not aware of any, nor have I seen any indicia of such countries stepping up. Only one I can think of would be Canada but I doubt it. I don't think Lula in Brazil has the resources to do so.

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China and/or Russia simply feeding information to Iran is enough to help them cause disruption in our efforts. As long as they are a threat we still have problems.

I don't see any evidence of such information, nor IRGC 'threats' being a problem in the oil market at this point (Saudi/hormuz traffic is at pre-war levels). No one is going to step up to send them money to 'survive' the embargo/financial sanctions imho. Their 'operating costs' are enormous.

The subsidized rate for their rial trade is vastly disproportionate vs. the 'street' rate. If they run out of funds to subsidize their enforcers/thugs, it's all over. Their central bank's published official/commercial rate (used for many trade transactions via the ETS/SANA system) stood at 1,728,507 rials per USD today.

The free-market ("street" or parallel) rate, which is the rate at which most actual transactions occur, is/was approximately 2.44 million rials per USD (244,400 toman), and rising.

I will decline to link to that but it is over 10X today, and maybe over 12X vs. the historic spread. We lament our borrowing rate for T-bills but this is unsustainable on their end, just a lot of differences vs. mid 2000's Cuba's situation (with Russian/Chinese/Obama backing).

Again, no one is, or has stepped up to 'solve' that problem for them, it has been growing rapidly the past few weeks/today. I'm unaware of any countries offering to do so, and 'information' or imagery isn't going to change that situation at all, which is why I asked.

nortex97 said:

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I don't see any evidence of such information, nor IRGC 'threats' being a problem in the oil market at this point (Saudi/hormuz traffic is at pre-war levels). No one is going to step up to send them money to 'survive' the embargo/financial sanctions imho. Their 'operating costs' are enormous.

The subsidized rate for their rial trade is vastly disproportionate vs. the 'street' rate. If they run out of funds to subsidize their enforcers/thugs, it's all over. Their central bank's published official/commercial rate (used for many trade transactions via the ETS/SANA system) stood at 1,728,507 rials per USD today.

The free-market ("street" or parallel) rate, which is the rate at which most actual transactions occur, is/was approximately 2.44 million rials per USD (244,400 toman), and rising.

I will decline to link to that but it is over 10X today, and maybe over 12X vs. the historic spread. We lament our borrowing rate for T-bills but this is unsustainable on their end, just a lot of differences vs. mid 2000's Cuba's situation (with Russian/Chinese/Obama backing).

Again, no one is, or has stepped up to 'solve' that problem for them, it has been growing rapidly the past few weeks/today. I'm unaware of any countries offering to do so, and 'information' or imagery isn't going to change that situation at all, which is why I asked.

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Just that simple huh?

docb said:

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nortex97 said:

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Again, no one is, or has stepped up to 'solve' that problem for them, it has been growing rapidly the past few weeks/today. I'm unaware of any countries offering to do so, and 'information' or imagery isn't going to change that situation at all, which is why I asked.

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Just that simple huh?

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Yep. There are no countries stepping up to 'keep Iran afloat' just to send a message. I thought perhaps you had other data perhaps but I guess not.

Germany put the IRGC Bank Sepah (Frankfurt branch) into insolvency a couple weeks ago, fwiw. Even the Brits are locking down on Iranian banks at this point.

nortex97 said:

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docb said:

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nortex97 said:

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Again, no one is, or has stepped up to 'solve' that problem for them, it has been growing rapidly the past few weeks/today. I'm unaware of any countries offering to do so, and 'information' or imagery isn't going to change that situation at all, which is why I asked.

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Just that simple huh?

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Yep. There are no countries stepping up to 'keep Iran afloat' just to send a message. I thought perhaps you had other data perhaps but I guess not.

Germany put the IRGC Bank Sepah (Frankfurt branch) into insolvency a couple weeks ago, fwiw. Even the Brits are locking down on Iranian banks at this point.

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What you do not realize is that "afloat" does not have to mean money. I thought perhaps you would of realized that but I guess not. Why would Trump make a statement that Russia is not providing Iran information if he wasn't worried about it? Do you trust Russia? Iran's leaders would be just fine sitting back for a few months before popping a few more tankers. They don't think like we (as in most of the USA) do.

https://t.co/ynXgasZeeu

— Alexander Stahel 🌻 (@BurggrabenH) September 28, 2026

benchmark said:

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YouBet said:

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Bessent is predicting Iran collapses economically in next two weeks.

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Beware. There are many examples of totalitarian governments that have remained politically intact despite their completely dysfunctional economies.

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And we (the US) don't exactly have a great record of predicting said collapses either. Or the inverse either. Of predicting when a government or other controlling body should stay solvent but instead collapses.

Come to think of it, we are actually pretty damn bad at both.

Eliminatus said:

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And we (the US) don't exactly have a great record of predicting said collapses either. Or the inverse either. Of predicting when a government or other controlling body should stay solvent but instead collapses.

Come to think of it, we are actually pretty damn bad at both.

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That's fair. Regime change is notoriously difficult to predict. Regimes can look totally stable ... right up until they aren't. And vice versa. That said, we probably have pretty good intel on the trajectory of Iran's economy, but no clue when - or even if - economic collapse will translate into regime change. History suggests we should be humble about predicting the latter.

Good news...

TRUMP: IRAN WAR WILL BE OVER WITH VERY VERY SOON

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 29, 2026

HunterAggie said:

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On Google,

Jan 1, 2026: 42,252 Iranian Rials to 1 U.S. Dollar

Sept 29, 2026: 1,374,850 Iranian Rials to 1 U.S. Dollar


that is a loss of about 97% of their value !

Wow!

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And roughly half that still on the ground in Tehran, which means its worthless and not practical as a currency, which would confirm the bartering that has been rumored to have been occurring for a while now.

Good news is they have plenty of open bizaars to allow for it. Bad news is those places can be breeding grounds for unrests.

Motorcycle patrols, checkpoints in Iranian cities as unrest starts to 'get serious.'

Clearly some desperation for willing trigger pullers imho.

WATCH: Iran's IRGC and Basij are training women in paramilitary roles under the Janfada mobilization campaign.

Women make up ~32% of participants.

Training covers rifles, FPV drones, anti-tank weapons, urban warfare, and first aid.

All-women Basij rapid-response battalions… pic.twitter.com/8MtLYfzlRw

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 30, 2026

It is not. Lots of moral cast-asides when observing jihad.

That is not sarcasm nor a joke.

Texas12&0 said:

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It will be over soon. Trump/Hegseth/Bessent have done brilliant work here. Destroyed them militarily. Financially isolated them. This isn't your typical commie dictatorship like Cuba, for example. Cuba has been propped up by other commie countries. Iran leadership is now on their own. It's over for the chumps in Iran.

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The horrifying thought of the subjects accessing the internet freely via Starlink. Now talking about cutting electricity if it becomes a problem.

Starlink terrifies the Islamic Republic, whose officials now warn they may cut electricity to stop it.

Mohammad Hafez Hekmati warned that if Starlink becomes widespread, the Communications Ministry and Supreme Council of Cyberspace might as well become “an amusement park.”

He… https://t.co/VpCfANDEOP

— The Iran Watcher (@TheIranWatcher) September 30, 2026

Fed up with the Islamic Republic’s deceptive negotiating games, Marco Rubio told its delegation to get out of the United States.

Once the General Assembly ended, the regime’s United Nations cover expired with it. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered its delegation to… https://t.co/RaUQPNkUEO pic.twitter.com/pWYyUTz83e

— The Iran Watcher (@TheIranWatcher) October 1, 2026

(Yes, the photo is AI, the story is accurate though imho).

Next thing we need to do is drop in batteries and generators for the people.

Remind me again why Iran has any electricity to cut off in the first place?

Just reported on CNBC that Trump has sent a 3rd carrier strike group towards the ME.

ETA:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/10/1/iran-war-live-trump-hints-us-could-strike-iran-warns-time-coming

Quote:

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By the end of November, three aircraft carriers and two landing groups will be deployed around Iran, a US official tells Al Jazeera as Washington issues fresh sanctions against Tehran.

President Masoud Pezeshkian says Iran "has never avoided" dialogue with the United States even though it's been attacked three times during negotiations.

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ProgN said:

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Just reported on CNBC that Trump has sent a 3rd carrier strike group towards the ME.

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If CNBC reports it….

They haven't confirm it themselves yet but it was first reported by the WSJ.

It's the Teddy Roosevelt group. Due by middle/end of November. It's happening. Not sure how long all 3 will be there of course.

The 5-ship Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group and 3-ship Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group deploy back-to-back from the West Coast...

On a hazy, humid Sunday morning, just before 9:30 a.m. local time, the USS Theodore Roosevelt sailed out of San Diego Bay for a… pic.twitter.com/a3F9p99mB8

— Ian Ellis (@ianellisjones) September 30, 2026

Sources amplify this but it was scheduled to leave Sunday and will probably replace the George Washington CSG at some point.

*US SENDING UP TO 10,000 MORE TROOPS TO MIDDLE EAST : WSJ

*US SENDING THIRD AIRCRAFT CARRIER TO MIDDLE EAST: WSJ

— Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) (@chigrl) October 1, 2026

Again, likely replacing one of the current carriers and a normal ARG/MEU deployment. 10,000 Marines and an extra carrier aren't enough to do anything more than we've already done.

This was already known days ago. The WSJ reporting it and playing it up today like it was news was pure market manipulation.

Everyone sending smoke signals during talks? Iran signaling they have leverage. Ditto our 3rd carrier group in transit? FAFO.

Iran has continued to strike tankers in the Strait of Hormuz in past few days, amidst ongoing negotiations with the U.S. that are increasingly focused on the nuclear file. Martin provides more details below, but as we assessed in our latest regional SITREP, both sides continue to… https://t.co/3YBeHr28EJ

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 2, 2026

These attacks clearly happened but as best I can determine it's not verified the attacks were by Iran altho they would certainly be the most likely suspects . Can't even verify if the attacks were airborne launched or something else .

It''s confusing to me that oil prices are dropping on this news . I guess these interruptions are not significant enough to overcome the general increase in supply that is occurring and the announced release of G7 supplies from reserve (diesel and crude) are also offsetting .

JustAGuy100 said:

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When they say a tanker has been hit or attacked, is that with a drone, RPG, a 9mm, or getting rammed with a Jon boat? I honestly have no idea but curious.

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If I had to guess, I would suspect a drone strike. Shahed or similar.