***Iran [Military Action Thread]***[See Staff Note in OP]

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ErnestEndeavor
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1:11p, 9/25/26
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/25/saudi-arabia-oil-iran-war-pipeline-strait-hormuz-red-sea-houthis.html

Saudi exports have recovered to pre-war levels despite the pipeline closure. Hormuz oil exports are now exceeding 3/4 of prewar levels due to the southern US-protected route.

Still need to get the diesel exports flowing.

Other than a political pressure of US gas and diesel prices, I'm not sure Iran has as much in terms of leverage. It's clear Iran is being hurt more by the situation in Hormuz than its neighbors.

The Iranian president's commentary in New York seemed much more pragmatic than sabre-rattling, but that's been more his style.
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Coachlandryhat
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1:40p, 9/25/26
Does anyone know if we lifted the air blockade or even started it? Air traffic remains about the same.
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MagnumLoad
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3:32p, 9/25/26
I don't believe we ever imposed an air blockade, although I think we should. But not like you think. Intercepting aircraft and shooting them down, particularly civilian, would be risky and ineffective IMO. I would destroy all airports and airfields in Iran. That would be a certain blockade and not involve enforcing a no fly zone.
I hate tu. It's in my blood.
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BadMoonRisin
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In reply to nortex97 • 3:59p, 9/25/26
AG
Oh cool, a 3 legged stool with no legs. Do you just call it a plate at that point?

At least put it on casters so it can be called a Lazy Susan.
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DCPD158
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In reply to Coachlandryhat • 4:13p, 9/25/26
AG
Coachlandryhat said:
Does anyone know if we lifted the air blockade or even started it? Air traffic remains about the same.

It wasn't really a "blockade".

It was more of a 'if you service an Iranian airliner, we will sanction the hell out of your country'.
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nortex97
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4:23a, 9/26/26
AG

All Iran can do at this point is harass some of the traffic. They have zero control.

Probably true.
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Ag8556
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8:25a, 9/26/26
AG
We should keep future strikes focused on transportation related infrastructure:

Ports on the Caspian Sea
Railyards and highways connecting Iranian ports to the Caspian Sea
Refineries manufacturing fuel and other distillates for the same facilities
Railyards, highways, and bridges connecting Iran to China and Pakistan overland

Continue naval blockade indefinitely

Make it clear we will not lift economic blockade as a condition to anything. No more oil revenue until we get what we want. Iran must turn over nuclear material and allow inspection of Pickaxe Mountain facilities prior to lifting economic blockade.
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Logos Stick
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9:26a, 9/26/26
Offer officially rejected...

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T dizl televizl
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In reply to Logos Stick • 9:31a, 9/26/26
AG
Logos Stick said:
Offer officially rejected...



This feels like a step in the right direction. If we had allowed them to go back into "negotiations" feels like it would've been just another delay tactic. Maybe trump has had enough
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nortex97
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4:42a, 9/27/26
AG

Good sign.

All kinds of rumors of explosives off RAF Fairford, likely Iranian sabotage attempt.

The Brits of course are not real allies nor do they take the islamic state/their moslem population to be a threat.
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:17a, 9/27/26
AG
There are some videos and pictures of how close they got on X. Vans right outside the airfield with explosives. The UK didn't take the threat seriously until the last second.

I think the longer this goes on the higher the risk of proxy attacks all over the world. They have spent years getting them in place, it's just a matter of when one will be successful
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Bird Poo
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 11:48a, 9/27/26
AG
P.U.T.U said:
There are some videos and pictures of how close they got on X. Vans right outside the airfield with explosives. The UK didn't take the threat seriously until the last second.

I think the longer this goes on the higher the risk of proxy attacks all over the world. They have spent years getting them in place, it's just a matter of when one will be successful


I think if these existed, we would have already been attacked. The regime is headed toward collapse.
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nortex97
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4:05p, 9/27/26
AG
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Im Gipper
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8:06p, 9/27/26
Enough is enough. Crush them!

I'm Gipper
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YouBet
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8:16p, 9/27/26
AG
Bessent is predicting Iran collapses economically in next two weeks.
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Aggie95
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In reply to YouBet • 8:23p, 9/27/26
AG
YouBet said:
Bessent is predicting Iran collapses economically in next two weeks.


What would that even look like and would it matter since the Houthis appear to be the ones in charge and fighting?
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YouBet
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In reply to Aggie95 • 8:28p, 9/27/26
AG
Aggie95 said:
YouBet said:
Bessent is predicting Iran collapses economically in next two weeks.


What would that even look like and would it matter since the Houthis appear to be the ones in charge and fighting?


Houthis are not in Iran. My guess is they are hoping for internal collapse. Citizen revolt.
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AgResearch
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In reply to YouBet • 8:29p, 9/27/26
AG
YouBet said:
Bessent is predicting Iran collapses economically in next two weeks.


2 weeks to flatten the economy?
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Ag with kids
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In reply to YouBet • 8:31p, 9/27/26
AG
YouBet said:
Bessent is predicting Iran collapses economically in next two weeks.

****...

While I support this approach...WTF is it with "two weeks".

Is that an actual assessment? Or a guess like we had all during covid?
You can turn off signatures, btw
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Ag with kids
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In reply to Aggie95 • 8:34p, 9/27/26
AG
Aggie95 said:
YouBet said:
Bessent is predicting Iran collapses economically in next two weeks.


What would that even look like and would it matter since the Houthis appear to be the ones in charge and fighting?

The Houthis are in Yemen. They are proxies funded by Iran's IRGC

In Iran, the IRGC are the ones that are marginally in charge, or at least ****ing everything up for any people in Iran wanting to make a deal.
You can turn off signatures, btw
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one safe place
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In reply to Ag with kids • 8:36p, 9/27/26
Ag with kids said:
YouBet said:
Bessent is predicting Iran collapses economically in next two weeks.

****...

While I support this approach...WTF is it with "two weeks".

Is that an actual assessment? Or a guess like we had all during covid?

Similar to the "48 hour" rule, both mean nothing specifically. More like "give it some time" rather than a set time frame. Silly, really.
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YouBet
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In reply to Ag with kids • 8:37p, 9/27/26
AG
Ag with kids said:
YouBet said:
Bessent is predicting Iran collapses economically in next two weeks.

****...

While I support this approach...WTF is it with "two weeks".

Is that an actual assessment? Or a guess like we had all during covid?


He's predicting it based on assessments of how much little oil left they have to sell and some other stuff.

But, yes, two weeks has become the defacto thing to say. Dumb.
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Joe Deertay
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8:57p, 9/27/26
Iran caves by next Friday. Complete surrender, Trump proves he had it in the bag. We win in November! Check mate
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ErnestEndeavor
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In reply to Ag with kids • 9:02p, 9/27/26
The Houthis have their own source of money (they control most of the ports and economically viable regions) and while they are allies with Iran they are functionally independent. It's not like Hezbollah.
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sam callahan
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9:08p, 9/27/26
I like Bessent.

I like my local weatherman. When he tells me it's going to rain in two weeks, I think, "I'll believe it when I see it."

Same goes for Bessent's prediction.
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Ag with kids
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In reply to ErnestEndeavor • 9:32p, 9/27/26
AG
ErnestEndeavor said:
The Houthis have their own source of money (they control most of the ports and economically viable regions) and while they are allies with Iran they are functionally independent. It's not like Hezbollah.

Well, we have more big boats...we could blockade the boats that provide the income that goes in and out of their ports...
You can turn off signatures, btw
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amercer
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9:50p, 9/27/26
AG
It seems like the economic pressure might be working. The hardliners aren't going to go quietly through
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Ag with kids
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In reply to amercer • 9:55p, 9/27/26
AG
amercer said:
It seems like the economic pressure might be working. The hardliners aren't going to go quietly through

Keep the boot on their evil throats...
You can turn off signatures, btw
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nortex97
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In reply to YouBet • 6:17a, 9/28/26
AG
He's accurate when he said yesterday that their final 'on the water' shipments to Beijing are being delivered now. So their remaining cash flow is basically over, as their currency collapse (Rialollar) is nearly complete.

It's not real complicated, imho.

The IRGC is just out of economic options/flexibility. The financial sector moves in various countries I don't consider 'allies' at all are quite fascinating to watch/read about.
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benchmark
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In reply to YouBet • 7:45a, 9/28/26
AG
YouBet said:
Bessent is predicting Iran collapses economically in next two weeks.

Beware. There are many examples of totalitarian governments that have remained politically intact despite their completely dysfunctional economies.
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Jock 07
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9:07a, 9/28/26
AG
This seems like a positive devlopment:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-28/saudi-arabia-s-crucial-oil-pipeline-starts-exports-after-repairs
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flashplayer
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9:13a, 9/28/26
AG
The oil parked outside the blockade may dry up in the next couple weeks but that doesn't prevent China from paying in advance for what is sitting inside the blockade. Fully expect that to happen.
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nortex97
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In reply to flashplayer • 9:30a, 9/28/26
AG
flashplayer said:
The oil parked outside the blockade may dry up in the next couple weeks but that doesn't prevent China from paying in advance for what is sitting inside the blockade. Fully expect that to happen.

That would functionally be a loan, and is not how China has traded with Iran at all. Chinese refineries/banks used the dark fleet and ship to ship transfers off Singapore/Malaysia etc. for a reason, to avoid US financial sanctions.

They aren't going to jump over their skis to pay in advance for oil that can't be delivered. It's just not their MO.
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docb
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9:33a, 9/28/26
AG
2 weeks.........seems to be a lot of 2 weeks mentioned in this conflict. Let's not forget there are other countries out there with the ability to help keep Iran afloat in this ordeal and would do it just to show a message.
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nortex97
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In reply to docb • 9:39a, 9/28/26
AG
docb said:
2 weeks.........seems to be a lot of 2 weeks mentioned in this conflict. Let's not forget there are other countries out there with the ability to help keep Iran afloat in this ordeal and would do it just to show a message.

What nations do you think have the financial means/resources/will to prop up the IRGC subjugation of 90 million people vs. US sanctions?

Genuinely curious, as I am not aware of any, nor have I seen any indicia of such countries stepping up. Only one I can think of would be Canada but I doubt it. I don't think Lula in Brazil has the resources to do so.
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