***Iran [Military Action Thread]***[See Staff Note in OP]

3,064,331 Views | 14007 Replies | Last: 12 hrs ago by ErnestEndeavor
halfastros81
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Can't speak to these particular wells but it's been standard technology for many many decades here to be able to shut in wells and reopen them, many even can be shut in or restarted remotely . Even well rates can be controlled remotely with actuated chokes on flowing wells and with variable speed drive motors on electrically driven lift pumps. If the wells were bombed or otherwise damaged then those controls could be compromised if they even had said controls in place tho.

The short answer is in a modern oil/gas field if storage were full or export pipelines were not moving product the wells would most likely shut in on their own or could be with a few keystrokes. A planned shut in of a well could be done at a controlled rate to avoid a hard shut in that might cause formation damage .

Wells in older fields may not be so equipped so they'd have to be manually shut in but it can still be done via site visits provided of course the valves and equipment have been maintained and there's not something like a fire restricting access .

If the trees (surface valves) and piping are damaged and you have wells flowing freely to atmosphere than that's a completely different animal that is going to require well control intervention. If that's the case on multiple wells then that suggests sabotage of some type like bombing. I can't think of a reason the Iranians would want their wells flowing to atmosphere uncontrolled . They would just be depleting their own reserves and possible causing downhole damage that is very expensive to stop and later reestablish.
Reginald Cousins
How long do you want to ignore this user?
S
MaxPower said:

Fitch said:

Read a while back that fires in the fields could also be an intentional, engineered, strategy to avoid having to shut in wells (and risk losing them wholesale) given Iran is totally out of storage space for product extracted from the ground.

No telling if that's what's going on or extra-military action, but the oil market gurus on Bloomberg TV were talking about it as a strategy to delay the biggest effects of the blockade some months back.
Any petroleum engineers on here? I hear about this a lot. Curious if there are or could be technologies that allow wells to be easily "turned off" in the event storage is full but also easily turned back on. It seems like that would be preferable to burning supply you may need at some future date. Most of these ME producers should be looking into that.


Maybe some different sands/structure to these but with 11 years offshore experience I once saw all of our wells come back online after a year shut in due to hurricane repairs.

I'm not sure why everyone on here/in the news acts like shutting them in can damage the formation. All you did was stick a big straw into it and then stop drinking from it. And based on the formation sizes it's actually usually a microscopic straw. Hell, edited to add the above poster mentions shutting them in slowly, off shore they must shut within 60 seconds on ESD if I remember correctly.

I'll hang up and wait with interest for someone with a degree to answer, though.
Reginald Cousins
How long do you want to ignore this user?
S
Or gas lift.
Cepe
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Reginald Cousins said:

MaxPower said:

Fitch said:

Read a while back that fires in the fields could also be an intentional, engineered, strategy to avoid having to shut in wells (and risk losing them wholesale) given Iran is totally out of storage space for product extracted from the ground.

No telling if that's what's going on or extra-military action, but the oil market gurus on Bloomberg TV were talking about it as a strategy to delay the biggest effects of the blockade some months back.
Any petroleum engineers on here? I hear about this a lot. Curious if there are or could be technologies that allow wells to be easily "turned off" in the event storage is full but also easily turned back on. It seems like that would be preferable to burning supply you may need at some future date. Most of these ME producers should be looking into that.


Maybe some different sands/structure to these but with 11 years offshore experience I once saw all of our wells come back online after a year shut in due to hurricane repairs.

I'm not sure why everyone on here/in the news acts like shutting them in can damage the formation. All you did was stick a big straw into it and then stop drinking from it. And based on the formation sizes it's actually usually a microscopic straw. Hell, edited to add the above poster mentions shutting them in slowly, off shore they must shut within 60 seconds on ESD if I remember correctly.

I'll hang up and wait with interest for someone with a degree to answer, though.



I think people confuse regular production with shale and frac'ing wells. With frac jobs you use propant like sand to hold the cracks open. Cycling the well can damage that and close the cracks. So, each time you bring the wells on you get less production. Once you bring a frac'ed well online you want to keep it on, particularly in the first 90 days.

Now, it's been 10 years since I've been around that so the technology may have changed.
Reginald Cousins
How long do you want to ignore this user?
S
Cepe said:

Reginald Cousins said:

MaxPower said:

Fitch said:

Read a while back that fires in the fields could also be an intentional, engineered, strategy to avoid having to shut in wells (and risk losing them wholesale) given Iran is totally out of storage space for product extracted from the ground.

No telling if that's what's going on or extra-military action, but the oil market gurus on Bloomberg TV were talking about it as a strategy to delay the biggest effects of the blockade some months back.
Any petroleum engineers on here? I hear about this a lot. Curious if there are or could be technologies that allow wells to be easily "turned off" in the event storage is full but also easily turned back on. It seems like that would be preferable to burning supply you may need at some future date. Most of these ME producers should be looking into that.


Maybe some different sands/structure to these but with 11 years offshore experience I once saw all of our wells come back online after a year shut in due to hurricane repairs.

I'm not sure why everyone on here/in the news acts like shutting them in can damage the formation. All you did was stick a big straw into it and then stop drinking from it. And based on the formation sizes it's actually usually a microscopic straw. Hell, edited to add the above poster mentions shutting them in slowly, off shore they must shut within 60 seconds on ESD if I remember correctly.

I'll hang up and wait with interest for someone with a degree to answer, though.



I think people confuse regular production with shale and frac'ing wells. With frac jobs you use propant like sand to hold the cracks open. Cycling the well can damage that and close the cracks. So, each time you bring the wells on you get less production. Once you bring a frac'ed well online you want to keep it on, particularly in the first 90 days.

Now, it's been 10 years since I've been around that so the technology may have changed.


We had 4 or 5 fracked wells (out of the 28ish) on my structure.

They generally behaved like the rest.

Probably 25ish wells on gas lift. 3 or 4 naturally flowing.

But yes, I could see where letting everything settle in after fracking would be advantageous as well as keeping it choked properly.
Buglerank62
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Needless to say life in Iran cannot be very enjoyable these days with all the economic squeeze going on. I guess if you are a IRGC guy you have to be assessing your situation where you are not getting paid and your money you might have squirreled away is frozen but the only thing you know to do is fire something at tankers in the Straight so you keep doing that until the missiles or drones play out. Cannot be a fun position to be in.
halfastros81
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Agree shutting in wells is not generally a big deal but if you had a choice you'd prefer they be shut in soft (ramped down in steps) versus just slammed shut hard especially a well flowing at high rates and as someone else said especially a newly fracced well. You're absolutely right wrt offshore wells , they have to be shut in on ESD within 60 secs but if your'e sitting on a postage stamp surrounded by water and a fire starts you need flow to stop right now . Some of the GoA offshore wells have extremely unconsolidated sand formations that will start making sand as well if you have too much drawdown and the flow gets super erosive. Formations falling apart downhole is generally not a good thing. I would suggest ramping them up slowly after a shut in is probably more important than ramping them down on a shut in.
benchmark
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
ChatGPT's closing summary paragraph is worth noting.
Quote:

The claim that Iranian geology makes shutting wells inherently destructive is therefore overstated. Iran does have unusually large mature fractured-carbonate reservoirs that require careful management, and some individual wells could suffer lasting productivity losses. But controlled temporary shut-ins can generally be managed, and some fractured reservoirs may actually experience beneficial gravity drainage while resting.

The serious risk begins if a temporary storage problem turns into a prolonged, poorly managed shutdown lasting many months, particularly if gas/water injection is disrupted and sanctions prevent Iran from obtaining the equipment, chemicals and services needed to restore damaged wells. At that point, Iran could lose meaningful future production capacity, even though most of the oil itself would remain underground.

OdessaAg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
FIDO95 said:

ErnestEndeavor said:

The Yemeni government announced they have retaken the key islands in the Bab al Mandab strait from the Houthis and claim the government forces now have complete control over the strait again.


We should just continue to let the Arabs take care of the barbarians in their backyard. They can get a lot more tribal than we can. The IRG is going to wish the Americans had been around to surrender to when the Persians take back their country.



Didn't realize it posted caption in Spanish. Essentially, Saudi mercenaries are running over fleeing Houthis for sport. There are worse videos than this one showing up.


Where are they and can you post them
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG

Pretty comical, really. Reminds me of when mensa herman answered a question about nfl talent on his sip team; 'some.'
Logos Stick
How long do you want to ignore this user?

Quote:

Iran says recognition of its right to uranium enrichment is a red line, insisting it will not abandon enrichment but could negotiate the details later.


benchmark
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Quote:

Iran says recognition of its right to uranium enrichment is a red line, insisting it will not abandon enrichment but could negotiate the details later.
The US could probably agree to Iranian enrichment of U235 up to 3-5% for peaceful purposes with verifiable inspections. The kicker is verifiable enrichment levels. Huge difference between "limited civilian reactor fuel enrichment" versus "unlimited weapons grade enrichment."
Deerdude
How long do you want to ignore this user?
They can't be trusted with any agreement like that. They are habitual liars.
halfastros81
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Exactly. We've seen this movie many times before .

At this point it feels to me that Trump isn't going to be satisfied with anything less than Iranian regime change altho it's uncertain what that will look like .
YouBet
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Oil not much of an issue at this point but refined products still squeezed.

Quote:

Gulf crude and condensate exports recovered to about 91% of pre-Iran-war levels in September, but refined-fuel exports are still only about 60% of pre-war levels.
Rapier108
How long do you want to ignore this user?
benchmark said:

Quote:

Iran says recognition of its right to uranium enrichment is a red line, insisting it will not abandon enrichment but could negotiate the details later.

The US could probably agree to Iranian enrichment of U235 up to 3-5% for peaceful purposes with verifiable inspections. The kicker is verifiable enrichment levels. Huge difference between "limited civilian reactor fuel enrichment" versus "unlimited weapons grade enrichment."

Trump should publicly make that offer just so Iran can reject it.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
AlaskanAg99
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Unfortunately we all know this means their red line isnt a out enrichment but nuclear weapons.
Keep the blockade up, keep banking sanctions going. Let them rot from the inside. Lot of civilians will pay the price but thats war.

Dont forget theyre experiencing massive water issues before any of this started. Including talks of relocating the capital. Going to be impossible to do that without resources.
aTm '99
Logos Stick
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Deerdude said:

They can't be trusted with any agreement like that. They are habitual liars.


FIFY

bomb them...

then bomb them some more
Swollen Thumb
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Rapier108 said:

benchmark said:

Quote:

Iran says recognition of its right to uranium enrichment is a red line, insisting it will not abandon enrichment but could negotiate the details later.

The US could probably agree to Iranian enrichment of U235 up to 3-5% for peaceful purposes with verifiable inspections. The kicker is verifiable enrichment levels. Huge difference between "limited civilian reactor fuel enrichment" versus "unlimited weapons grade enrichment."

Trump should publicly make that offer just so Iran can reject it.


I believe as part of the early talks we offered to directly supply Iran with all the low level enriched uranium they need for civilian energy purposes free of charge to squash their long standing assertions that they MUST have enriching capabilities for "civilian" purposes. Of course they rejected that which tells you all you need to know (and what everyone already knows).
gougler08
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
YouBet said:

Oil not much of an issue at this point but refined products still squeezed.

Quote:

Gulf crude and condensate exports recovered to about 91% of pre-Iran-war levels in September, but refined-fuel exports are still only about 60% of pre-war levels.



This seems very accurate based on what we're seeing where I work (Downstream Major O&G)
CheersforBeers
How long do you want to ignore this user?
How long or what ends up being the economic breaking point and how close do we think we are too that point?
flashplayer
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
CheersforBeers said:

How long or what ends up being the economic breaking point and how close do we think we are too that point?

History doesn't point to the idea that less than 1 year is even an option. Countries have survived for many years under similar circumstances, and there isn't the political will here to force that to happen, even within the administration. It's hard to negotiate with people who see the world through a fundamentally different lense.

The only thing that will get them to back down is if Pakistan, Turkey, and the Saudis turn up the heat enough to convince Iran that further conflict will be mutually assured destruction.
BBQ
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
For the historians, reflect back to the US circa 1836 - 1860s. see the US government negotiations with the numerous Comanche factions within the Texas Oklahoma territories. Many similarities as far looking at the world through completely different lenses and understanding of each sides beliefs or stances. Both sides having zero understanding of the other. Not picking sides, just pointing out the similarities.
docb
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
CheersforBeers said:

How long or what ends up being the economic breaking point and how close do we think we are too that point?

I'd say about another two weeks
one MEEN Ag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Cepe said:

Reginald Cousins said:

MaxPower said:

Fitch said:

Read a while back that fires in the fields could also be an intentional, engineered, strategy to avoid having to shut in wells (and risk losing them wholesale) given Iran is totally out of storage space for product extracted from the ground.

No telling if that's what's going on or extra-military action, but the oil market gurus on Bloomberg TV were talking about it as a strategy to delay the biggest effects of the blockade some months back.

Any petroleum engineers on here? I hear about this a lot. Curious if there are or could be technologies that allow wells to be easily "turned off" in the event storage is full but also easily turned back on. It seems like that would be preferable to burning supply you may need at some future date. Most of these ME producers should be looking into that.


Maybe some different sands/structure to these but with 11 years offshore experience I once saw all of our wells come back online after a year shut in due to hurricane repairs.

I'm not sure why everyone on here/in the news acts like shutting them in can damage the formation. All you did was stick a big straw into it and then stop drinking from it. And based on the formation sizes it's actually usually a microscopic straw. Hell, edited to add the above poster mentions shutting them in slowly, off shore they must shut within 60 seconds on ESD if I remember correctly.

I'll hang up and wait with interest for someone with a degree to answer, though.



I think people confuse regular production with shale and frac'ing wells. With frac jobs you use propant like sand to hold the cracks open. Cycling the well can damage that and close the cracks. So, each time you bring the wells on you get less production. Once you bring a frac'ed well online you want to keep it on, particularly in the first 90 days.

Now, it's been 10 years since I've been around that so the technology may have changed.

The results from shutting frac'd wells off is that the pore pressure at the bottom of the well declines over time regardless of if you're extracting fluid out the top or not. After fracking, if you close the well in, the fluid is going to slowly move through the rock to release the pressure as its still slightly permeable and hydraulics don't need much movement to destroy pressure.

Someone was claiming that there is something specific about iranian well design that make them suspectable to losing pressure. The same claims were made about russian wells as well. I have no idea what production losses those well see from being closed. By guess would be either sand settling, or their completion technology doesn't do a good job keeping other fines out of the completed well and they settle and get packoff.
benchmark
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Good read.

Al Jazeera: What would it take for the Yemen offensive to succeed?
Quote:

There is a complication. The Houthis' calculus is no longer purely Yemeni. Their decisions are now entangled with Tehran's war and its bargaining with Washington. Even significant battlefield losses may not produce flexibility in the group if its leadership believes concessions should be traded within a wider regional deal. A specifically Yemeni settlement may therefore depend partly on movement in a negotiation that Yemenis do not control.

Over the coming weeks, four indicators will tell us which way the war is turning: whether government forces retake and hold the coast and the strait islands; whether the Taiz-Aden road is reopened; whether the Houthis are forced to pull forces from Taiz to defend the coast and Marib; and whether recovered areas come under a single command and receive salaries and services.

benchmark
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
For now, it still sounds like the Saudi's, Paki's, and Turki's won't be providing ground troops.

nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Interesting they sent those and not their newer Chinese fighters. Pakistan does have a functioning air force, unlike the perfumed princes flying expensive gear for practice/photos of the Saudis.
ErnestEndeavor
How long do you want to ignore this user?
That may just be a file photo.
Jock 07
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Suspected US airstrike reportedly targets vehicle belonging to AQAP operatives in Hadramout Governorate, Yemen
benchmark
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
It's hard to disagree. Iran's (aka IRGC) only hope is if Trump goes wobbly. We're close, stay on course.

Victor Davis Hanson: Iranian Regime Has Only One Way Out
Quote:

We are very, very close. The United States is very, very close to doing something that no one ever anticipated: so hurting, so injuring this terrorist, murderous regime that either the people will now go out in the streets and overthrow it, or it will be too weak to operate as a terrorist home base for Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and terrorists worldwide, or Donald Trump, in frustration, will destroy the regime's ability to make war for 20 years.

He will hit dual-use targets, and then he will leave.

But in any case, they only have one chance, and that is now to call off the United States military and the United States financial architects of this embargo and somehow squeeze or slither out of the noose that they put their head in.

Let's hope that does not happen. We stay the course, and I think very soon, in a year, a lot less than a year, or two years, that regime will either fall or be taken over by moderate elements, and the Middle East will look like a completely different place.
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Good point.


TBF, I have a tough time really caring about these pathetic tribal pillow fights. The Houthis never actually controlled the Bab al Mandab strait, for even a single day. All they can really do is fire some rockets/harass the Saudis (and fellow yemeni tribes).
Jock 07
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Several police officers reportedly injured in IED explosion targeting police vehicle in Cheshmeh Ziarat area of Zahedan, Iran
BCrusher91
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Interesting that IED and gorilla tactics could be the key rather than open warfare the citizens are not armed/trained for.
Jock 07
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
IRGC says actions against violating vessels will not be limited to Strait of Hormuz, adds any vessel passing through unauthorized route will be pursued throughout Middle East.

They're gonna chase them down in some 16' carolina skiffs
First Page Last Page
Page 400 of 402 ▼
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.