It seems awfully quiet all over the Middle East the past few days. More so than typically Iran and their proxies attack more on Jewish holidays / feast and nothing major has happened.

P.U.T.U said:

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It seems awfully quiet all over the Middle East the past few days. More so than typically Iran and their proxies attack more on Jewish holidays / feast and nothing major has happened.

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Quiet? Its been quite active. We htt another Iranian ship in the SOH last night. Saudi Arabia airstrikes on Yemen and still intense fighting. SAUDI pipeline attacked, Israel still bombing Hezbohla in Southern Lebanon.

The Gemini Cooperation (Maersk & Hapag-Lloyd) are not seeing the recent Houthi seizure of Perim and Mocha, along with their attacks on Saudi tankers as a threat. https://t.co/77DsmRH09C

— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ (@mercoglianos) September 14, 2026

Great to see.

The seriousness of the Houthi threat is being greatly exaggerated. No surprise there.

Also, the Saudi pipeline attack, estimated for repairs to be resolved in a couple of weeks not a couple of months, is mitigated by the storage facilities at the terminus that should alleviate potential supply disruptions there.

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Quiet? Its been quite active. We htt another Iranian ship in the SOH last night. Saudi Arabia airstrikes on Yemen and still intense fighting. SAUDI pipeline attacked, Israel still bombing Hezbohla in Southern Lebanon.

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The Houthis retaking most of the critical island and coastal land in Yemen is a pretty large setback. The Saudis had to shut down a critical pipeline as well because of drone attacks out of Iraq.

Brent Crude is at $108 and climbing.

Windy City Ag said:

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Quote:

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Quiet? Its been quite active. We htt another Iranian ship in the SOH last night. Saudi Arabia airstrikes on Yemen and still intense fighting. SAUDI pipeline attacked, Israel still bombing Hezbohla in Southern Lebanon.

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The Houthis retaking most of the critical island and coastal land in Yemen is a pretty large setback. The Saudis had to shut down a critical pipeline as well because of drone attacks out of Iraq.

Brent Crude is at $108 and climbing.

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https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3595891/replies/72863614

flown-the-coop said:

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The seriousness of the Houthi threat is being greatly exaggerated. No surprise there.

Also, the Saudi pipeline attack, estimated for repairs to be resolved in a couple of weeks not a couple of months, is mitigated by the storage facilities at the terminus that should alleviate potential supply disruptions there.

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I haven't read, but has it been noted where the failures were that led to the Houthis even being able to do this?

Also, good to know things will be back to normal in a couple of weeks. Assuming those couple of weeks don't turn into months, half a year, etc of course.

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but has it been noted where the failures were that led to the Houthis even being able to do this?

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Yemen is a desperately poor country that has had Sunni Shia post Ottoman schism roll into a now 12 year running civil war.

The current government is pushed together by outside powers that did not agree with each other on the correct local proxies. The UAE and Saudis nearly came to blow over backing different horses in the region. Support for the recognized waxes and wanes but has never been consistent.

There are other backers for the Houthis as well. All of the horn of Africa is helping the country, with arms smuggling coming in from Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan.

It feels like Saudi had to take its eye of things given all the other crap in the region and their local buddies, having been incompetent for some time, were not able to keep things under control for long.

Probably about ripe for regime change in Saudi Arabia.

With the memories of 09/11 25th year of remembrance fresh on our minds, it would be great to hold the existing guys fully responsible.

We have let our fear of energy prices let those who were very weak have outsized power on the global field.

As with Iran, it's time to end the hostage taking.

Tying this into the thread here, it's evident Saudi Arabia has a role to play in resolving the conflict. They need to choose a side and live the with consequences once and for all.

No Spin Ag said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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The seriousness of the Houthi threat is being greatly exaggerated. No surprise there.

Also, the Saudi pipeline attack, estimated for repairs to be resolved in a couple of weeks not a couple of months, is mitigated by the storage facilities at the terminus that should alleviate potential supply disruptions there.

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I haven't read, but has it been noted where the failures were that led to the Houthis even being able to do this?

Also, good to know things will be back to normal in a couple of weeks. Assuming those couple of weeks don't turn into months, half a year, etc of course.

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I've only seen the six weeks or less estimate.

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Sources that spoke to Reuters gave varying estimates, with one saying the damage could take up to six weeks to repair, while another said it could be fixed sooner and could resume pumping partially while repairs are ongoing.

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"Source", so grain of salt, but Yanbu doesn't have that much inventory. Markets are reacting like there will be supply disruption.

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The world's biggest exporter has used the pipeline to reroute around 4m barrels per day about 4% of global supply to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. But with the pipeline out of service, Yanbu now has stocks to maintain exports for just five to seven days, according to three industry sources familiar with Saudi exports.

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/14/saudi-pipeline-drone-attack-houthis-global-oil-supply-prices

Large battle in Yemen going on right now. Saudi Airbase hit. Unclear if any damage.

Irainian claims so take with a large grain of salt, but IRGC Navy is claiming supertanker vessel Algaya exploded after striking naval mine south of Strait of Hormuz

No Spin Ag said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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The seriousness of the Houthi threat is being greatly exaggerated. No surprise there.

Also, the Saudi pipeline attack, estimated for repairs to be resolved in a couple of weeks not a couple of months, is mitigated by the storage facilities at the terminus that should alleviate potential supply disruptions there.

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I haven't read, but has it been noted where the failures were that led to the Houthis even being able to do this?

Also, good to know things will be back to normal in a couple of weeks. Assuming those couple of weeks don't turn into months, half a year, etc of course.

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Amateur hour by KSA on how they got their ass kicked the last week.

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The Houthi advance was aided because they were able to intercept the communications of Saudi-backed fighters, people familiar with the matter said. The Houthis have been in control of mobile communications networks in San'a since they seized the capital. The militants also gained access to the phones of captured Saudi-backed fighters.

The Houthi militants listened in on calls between their opponents' commanders, giving them insight into their plans, the people said. They were also able to speak directly to rival fighters on the ground, urging them to surrender, they said.

People on the ground said the tactics created chaos and confusion on the battlefield.

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Also:

BREAKING: Houthi forces have now taken control of the entire Red Sea coast in Yemen, effectively giving them control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait saw over 9 million barrels of daily crude oil flows at its peak prior to the Iran War.

This reflect ~9% of…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 14, 2026

US central command just posted it was false. The ship was hit last month and while sitting off Oman. There is was hit by a missile. Now it is being towed for repairs. No mines.
Corrected last sentence

The Pentagon declassified footage this weekend of the rescues of both aircrew from the USAF F-15E Strike Eagle (mission call sign Dude 44) shot down by Iranian forces on April 3. After the pilot (Alpha) and the weapons systems officer (WSO, Bravo) ejected, they landed about 5 miles apart.

Alpha, the pilot, was recovered later the same day:

Declassified footage shows the moment that “Alpha,” not to be confused with the WSO, who was shot down over Iran earlier in the war, was picked up by a Black Hawk helicopter. pic.twitter.com/IayvTGisMc

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) September 14, 2026

Bravo, the WSO, was recovered two days later after climbing a 7,000-foot ridgeline with a broken back, arm, and shoulder. His parachute was damaged in the shoot-down, and he hit the ground at an estimated 70-100 mph:

Declassified footage shows the moment that “Bravo,” the injured WSO was finally picked up by U.S. forces, specifically by two members of Air Force Pararescue, following the use of technology by the CIA to detect his location. All together, over 90 special operators were involved… pic.twitter.com/LJGTBhJeS3

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) September 14, 2026

Appreciate all the responses from those who gave them.

Highly recommend last night's 60 Minutes interview. It includes Bravo, the WSO from the USAF F-15E shot down.

His first message out: "God is good."

Bravo, the U.S. Air Force weapon systems officer who was stranded behind enemy lines in Iran for two days, tells 60 Minutes about the first message he was able to send to the U.S.: “God is good.” https://t.co/xqTEaggw2A pic.twitter.com/z7cBfqCksI

— 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) September 14, 2026

60 Minutes cut of the rescue, including the strike that cleared the way

Dramatic video, obtained first by 60 Minutes, shows the rescue of two Air Force officers shot down over a mountainous desert region of Iran back in April. https://t.co/MMeYIaZvfu pic.twitter.com/37AR1xc9bj

— 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) September 14, 2026

Trump just destroyed Iran completely. Total joke nation https://t.co/9l2bIYDZFU

— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) September 15, 2026

TLDR summary - continue containment but now is the time to escalate and attack targets that permanently and irreversibly impact the regime. Specifically, target Kharg and the regime itself.

RCP: Containment That Causes Iran To Capitulate or Crumble

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Instead of emphasizing proportionality in response to any counter-containment actions by Iran, their strikes provide a pretext for the United States to do something far more to restore deterrence and regain the initiative. Responsive and precise U.S. strikes designed to impact the regime permanently and irreversibly would complement containment. The oil infrastructure at Kharg Island tops the list of the types of targets with disproportionate and lasting impact. Striking Kharg would harm the regime's ability to fund itself for the long term maybe more than any other singular site, and U.S. strikes on those targets would capture their attention, erode their will, and deter their provocations.

Additionally, it has been several months since Iranian internal security locations have been targeted. During active combat operations it had been an area of emphasis for the Israel military with an eye towards neutering the regime likely with a vision for an end state that would cause the regime to capitulate or crumble. It's a target set that never became a priority for the United States. Now is the time to revisit that omission in response to any Iranian strikes on U.S. interests in the region.

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Saudi Arabia is a completely toothless disaster from what I am seeing. But at least oil is otherwise continuing to flow at an accelerating pace.

For the first time in months.. the amount of crude moving out of the Gulf of Oman has well and truly crossed 11 million barrels a day. The upward trend has seen it move from 9->10->11 mbpd in the past three weeks. These figures give a precise count of all vessels that transited… https://t.co/ShILIPsRPz

— Live-AIS.com (@live_ais_com) September 14, 2026

🇸🇦 🇮🇱 Israel and Saudi Arabia may be quietly working together against the Houthis.

Think about what that means.

Saudi Arabia and Israel don’t even have formal diplomatic relations.

Yet according to regional diplomatic reporting, Riyadh is seeking Israeli intelligence pic.twitter.com/XeBsUwnwcR

— True Prowess (@TrueProwess_) September 15, 2026

But there are tons of videos of strikes on Saudi facilities which they apparently are entirely unable to defend.

This is an interesting excerpt from an article jn the WSJ today regarding the Houthis.

"For years, forces allied to the U.A.E. had operated on Perim Island and the surrounding area. But a dispute in December between Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. over their positions in Yemen frayed the anti-Houthi alliance. The kingdom bombed a weapons shipment from the U.A.E. after it arrived in Yemen for some of the Houthis' rivals, and the U.A.E. withdrew from the war. "

These are our allies….

Since Trump has stated we are not going to provide direct kinetic assistance against the Houthis, it wouldn't surprise me if KSA is looking to Israel for help. Why wouldn't you?

Difficult to attack the regime when we do not know who the regime is.

YouBet said:

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Since Trump has stated we are not going to provide direct kinetic assistance against the Houthis, it wouldn't surprise me if KSA is looking to Israel for help. Why wouldn't you?

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The real issue is that the wahabbist Sauds are so anti-Israel today over Gaza/Hamas etc, they repeatedly also refused Trump's bid to expand the Abraham accords. Desperation to deal with them for intelligence without even a diplomatic relationship is pretty incredible. And, an IRGC delegation landed today in Riyadh for 'negotiations' with 'our friends' the Saudi's.

I don't know if the below is true, but it is starting to sound feasible/plausible.

The US is considering halting diesel exports.

The US is the world's largest diesel exporter... Russia, the 2nd largest, has already halted exports.

A US export ban would send global diesel prices even higher and force countries like Japan to dump USTs to fund their domestic… pic.twitter.com/0P4ZGWtGJM

— Lukas Ekwueme (@ekwufinance) September 15, 2026

I gave Saudi Arabia a year a few days ago. I want to revise it: it's just a matter of months before MBS escapes to London or Paris. Perhaps weeks https://t.co/EpSXIWyxY0

— Alon Mizrahi (@alon_mizrahi) September 15, 2026

Meanwhile, Zelensky just confirmed hitting the Syzran refinery in Russia. And the Libyans shut down some oil field for some reason.

nortex97 said:

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YouBet said:

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Since Trump has stated we are not going to provide direct kinetic assistance against the Houthis, it wouldn't surprise me if KSA is looking to Israel for help. Why wouldn't you?

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The real issue is that the wahabbist Sauds are so anti-Israel today over Gaza/Hamas etc, they repeatedly also refused Trump's bid to expand the Abraham accords. Desperation to deal with them for intelligence without even a diplomatic relationship is pretty incredible. And, an IRGC delegation landed today in Riyadh for 'negotiations' with 'our friends' the Saudi's.

I don't know if the below is true, but it is starting to sound feasible/plausible.

The US is considering halting diesel exports.

The US is the world's largest diesel exporter... Russia, the 2nd largest, has already halted exports.

A US export ban would send global diesel prices even higher and force countries like Japan to dump USTs to fund their domestic… pic.twitter.com/0P4ZGWtGJM

— Lukas Ekwueme (@ekwufinance) September 15, 2026

I gave Saudi Arabia a year a few days ago. I want to revise it: it's just a matter of months before MBS escapes to London or Paris. Perhaps weeks https://t.co/EpSXIWyxY0

— Alon Mizrahi (@alon_mizrahi) September 15, 2026

Meanwhile, Zelensky just confirmed hitting the Syzran refinery in Russia. And the Libyans shut down some oil field for some reason.

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The globalists and Deep State need to make gas as expensive as they can ahead of midterms to get Trump.

YouBet said:

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Since Trump has stated we are not going to provide direct kinetic assistance against the Houthis, it wouldn't surprise me if KSA is looking to Israel for help. Why wouldn't you?

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Cooper is meeting with highest levels of KSA, so I would say our refusal of direct kinetic assistance is "fluid" at the least.

nortex97 said:

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I gave Saudi Arabia a year a few days ago. I want to revise it: it's just a matter of months before MBS escapes to London or Paris. Perhaps weeks https://t.co/EpSXIWyxY0

— Alon Mizrahi (@alon_mizrahi) September 15, 2026

Meanwhile, Zelensky just confirmed hitting the Syzran refinery in Russia. And the Libyans shut down some oil field for some reason.

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Is the indication in this post he expects "regime" change in KSA? I hinted at that earlier. It seems to be going from a "you flipping crazy to suggest that" to at least a "probably not, but things are getting squirrely".

BREAKING: Saudi Aramco has cancelled all of its September European crude oil allocations and is scrapping every cargo slated for late-September loading onward, with a European lifter saying no Saudi oil cargoes at all until November, per initial reports citing oil trading firm…

— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) September 15, 2026

BREAKING: US diesel crack spread, the gap between diesel and crude oil, has just hit a record $111 a barrel against Brent for the first time in history, clearing the 2022 record set after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Diesel is now trading at roughly $220 a barrel, more than… pic.twitter.com/wsvpyCDNqJ

— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) September 15, 2026

I guess so? Seen that comment a few places. I have no idea. He doesn't seem to be able to command their military though. Weak.

Looks like we may just hang S.A. out to dry and see what happens over there.

BREAKING: The U.S. is stripping $52 million in military aid to Europe and the Middle East to back Trump-allied governments in Latin America. https://t.co/z4OUhKbSDb

— The Associated Press (@AP) September 15, 2026

Rossticus said:

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Looks like we may just hang S.A. out to dry and see what happens over there.

BREAKING: The U.S. is stripping $52 million in military aid to Europe and the Middle East to back Trump-allied governments in Latin America. https://t.co/z4OUhKbSDb

— The Associated Press (@AP) September 15, 2026

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I love this.

Rossticus said:

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Looks like we may just hang S.A. out to dry and see what happens over there.

BREAKING: The U.S. is stripping $52 million in military aid to Europe and the Middle East to back Trump-allied governments in Latin America. https://t.co/z4OUhKbSDb

— The Associated Press (@AP) September 15, 2026

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That's great, and I support reducing as much as we can, but according to https://foreignassistance.gov/ we provided $18.71 BILLION in military aid to foreign countries last year, so this $52M is pennies in the grand scheme of things.

Trump administration is sending a message.

agent-maroon said:

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Trump administration is sending a message.

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"Hey Europe, WWII was 81 years ago. It is time to go ahead and stand on your own two feet, especially since you hate us so much."

"Hey Saudi Arabia, you remember the good old days when we REALLY needed Persian Gulf oil? And you guys could make us crawl across broken glass for giggles because we had no other choices? Yeah, those days are gone. The days of us always being there when you need us, even after you don't return the favor are over."

The world has no idea to handle the idea of diplomacy and relationships with the US being a two-way street.