aggie93 said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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New Emerson poll of Texas Senate Democratic Primary (1/10-12):

OVERALL:
🟣 47% Talarico
🟠 38% Crockett

🟣 Latinos — Talarico +34
🟣 White — Talarico +29
🟣 Independents — Talarico +29
🟣 Men — Talarico +22
🟣 Women — Talarico +1
🟠 Dems — Crockett +1
🟠 Black — Crockett +72

— Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) January 15, 2026

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll/

More interestingly…Talarico and Paxton are head to head in a potential contest.

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Emerson always underestimates GOP voters in Texas. Neither of those idiots is getting close to beating anyone with an R next to their name for a Senate seat. This poll is designed to help Cornyn.

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It's a poll of Democrats...

Will black voters sit out the general substantially if white/hispanic Dems reject Jasmine?

Mid terms are different
Tallirico is better candidate than Allred or Iirc Davis

Sq 17 said:

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Mid terms are different
Tallirico is better candidate than Allred or Iirc Davis

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We hear this every single election.

doubledog said:

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So sad that the once strong Texas Democratic party can no longer put forward a strong competent candidate. how far have they have fallen.

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Even if a Dim candidate is moderate enough to win in Texas, he/she would then go to the Washington Dim nut house and be pushed so far to the left that they would represent no one in Texas that voted for them.

Sq 17 said:

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Just curious do you know what the final results of Cruz V Beto during in 2018 - the midterms of Trump's first term

Cruz won by about 2.5%
I would expect Tallirico to keep with 5 against Cornyn with a slight chance at winning and keep it within 2 against Paxton with a reasonable chance at winning

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Yes, I am aware that Cruz won by about 2.6% in 2018, but he defeated Allred by 8.5% in 2024. Cornyn defeated Hegar by about 9.6%.

I think Cornyn would beat Talarico by 8% or so, and Paxton would beat Talarico by between 5-7%.

Teslag said:

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DarkBrandon01 said:

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If Crockett wins the primary then the dems have chosen to lose.

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They'd both lose. Texas is deep red.

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This.

Texas is the kind of red that is perfect for this state. It's red though that people who are conservative feel like their way of life is being thought of when policies are made and not so red that people on the left actually feel them in their daily lives.

There's literally no reason for this state ever to turn blue when non radical folk on the left line just as happily as anyone on the left.

Viva whoever the right puts up. Me valle (you know the rest)

flyrancher said:

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doubledog said:

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So sad that the once strong Texas Democratic party can no longer put forward a strong competent candidate. how far have they have fallen.

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Even if a Dim candidate is moderate enough to win in Texas, he/she would then go to the Washington Dim nut house and be pushed so far to the left that they would represent no one in Texas that voted for them.

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And they are only moving more to the left, nationally. Just wait until their olds are fully purged.

At the state and local level, some of them....some....have been forced to tack back to the middle on some topics - the primary one being energy. California and New York have reversed course on banning or adding new O&G at the state level because they both went so far left in the past they endangered their very existence. Pennsylvania (a purple state) just exited a far left state pact to ban O&G as well. That was should be obvious since they are a top O&G state already.

4 said:

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Blacks - Crockett+ 72

A voting block that literally doesn't think for themselves, or can't.

They would vote for a cactus plant as long as it was black. It's pretty much the only requirement.

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Yep. But we're the racists.

Some latinos think Talarico is from Mexico.

LOL.

LOYAL AG said:

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Sq 17 said:

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Just curious do you know what the final results of Cruz V Beto during in 2018 - the midterms of Trump's first term

Cruz won by about 2.5%
I would expect Tallirico to keep with 5 against Cornyn with a slight chance at winning and keep it within 2 against Paxton with a reasonable chance at winning

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You're citing 2018 when we've had two Senate races since then? That makes no sense. In 2018 Cruz barely campaigned and it nearly cost him. It would seem he learned that lesson as he won by 8.5% last year. In 2020 Cornyn won by 7.5%. If we do consider the 2018 result I see a trend of bigger Republican margins of victory from 2.5 to 7.5 to 8.5.

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In 2020, Cornyn defeated Hegar by 9.6%, and he should win this election by at least 7%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas

all the baby murdering that libs enjoy so much is not on the ballot either.

oh no said:

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all the baby murdering that libs enjoy so much is not on the ballot either.

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True. That issue has finally been resolved and is no longer a wedge issue for people to use.

Now for immigration issues like anchor babies and whatever else can be done, on top of what already is, so there is no more back and forth depending on which side is in office.

Sq 17 said:

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Just curious do you know what the final results of Cruz V Beto during in 2018 - the midterms of Trump's first term

Cruz won by about 2.5%
I would expect Tallirico to keep with 5 against Cornyn with a slight chance at winning and keep it within 2 against Paxton with a reasonable chance at winning

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2018 was the outlier year for Democrats. They had a perfect storm of a red hot candidate who was outspending Cruz by huge margins and getting limitless free media. It was also an off year election of a candidate who had refused to endorse Trump and had very low voter enthusiasm on the GOP side and a complacent GOP base because they have not lost a Statewide election since 2014. Dems literally pulled out all the stops for Beto and he STILL lost by 2.5%.

Then in 2022 the closest GOP race was 10 points for the next off year election and most races were +12 to +16 GOP. 2024 saw Cruz win by 8 against a strong candidate and Trump won by 14 after winning by 6 in '20 and 9 in '16.

Essentially Texas is at least a +10 GOP state, probably closer to +14. That means that any Dem has to overcome that headwind. The race is currently rated as "Likely R" by Cook Political and that's probably being generous. Cornyn has never had a Senate election within 10 points and Paxton won his AG race by 10 as well, that was with furious campaigns against them and strong Dem candidates.

Tallarico isn't anything close to Beto or even Allred. He's a very liberal guy that has positions way out of line with the state population and there isn't anything really special about him. Crockett is a joke. I'm happy for the Dems to set fire to a ton of cash and spend a lot of time thinking they can win in Texas but it's just not happening.

aggie93 said:

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Sq 17 said:

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Just curious do you know what the final results of Cruz V Beto during in 2018 - the midterms of Trump's first term

Cruz won by about 2.5%
I would expect Tallirico to keep with 5 against Cornyn with a slight chance at winning and keep it within 2 against Paxton with a reasonable chance at winning

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2018 was the outlier year for Democrats. They had a perfect storm of a red hot candidate who was outspending Cruz by huge margins and getting limitless free media. It was also an off year election of a candidate who had refused to endorse Trump and had very low voter enthusiasm on the GOP side and a complacent GOP base because they have not lost a Statewide election since 2014. Dems literally pulled out all the stops for Beto and he STILL lost by 2.5%.

Then in 2022 the closest GOP race was 10 points for the next off year election and most races were +12 to +16 GOP. 2024 saw Cruz win by 8 against a strong candidate and Trump won by 14 after winning by 6 in '20 and 9 in '16.

Essentially Texas is at least a +10 GOP state, probably closer to +14. That means that any Dem has to overcome that headwind. The race is currently rated as "Likely R" by Cook Political and that's probably being generous. Cornyn has never had a Senate election within 10 points and Paxton won his AG race by 10 as well, that was with furious campaigns against them and strong Dem candidates.

Tallarico isn't anything close to Beto or even Allred. He's a very liberal guy that has positions way out of line with the state population and there isn't anything really special about him. Crockett is a joke. I'm happy for the Dems to set fire to a ton of cash and spend a lot of time thinking they can win in Texas but it's just not happening.

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The GOP have not a Texas statewide election since 1994. Cornyn's closest Senate election margin of victory was 9.6% against Hegar in 2020, which actually surpassed Trump's 5.58% margin of victory, the narrowest for a Republican since 1996. I agree with the rest of your points.

Commander Gorn said:

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When you read about how people will follow the antichrist and worship him, you may ask yourself "would people actually buy this?" No, I'm not saying Talarico is the antichrist. What I am saying is that this guy is incredibly far removed from genuine Christianity. I am very familiar with one of the churches he has taught at, and they are nothing short of Godless political drones. I went to a funeral officiated by that church and one of the "pastors" (lesbian) was praying to "whatever you call God". I've seen SO many liberals saying things like "I wish all Christians were like Talarico!" The reason they say this is because he is more in line with tickling political ears than the actual gospel of Jesus Christ. Do not be deceived, but unfortunately, many, MANY will be led astray by this style of "Christianity" as it has happened for hundreds of years and as it will come to pass.

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I went to a similar marriage. Lesbian "minister" was saying the same kind of crap and even incorporated pagan garbage. They were good friends of my then-wife or I would have left.

that's for the best. crockett has no shot against paxton or cornyn. talarico at least has a puncher's chance against paxton, and texas doesn't need that windbag representing us.

I absolutely loathe the idea that "because X, Y is assured"

As a reminder, Doug Jones defeated Roy Moore in 2017.

At the end of the day, candidate quality matters and Ken Paxton is not a great candidate and love him or hate him Talarico is smooth…much smoother than Allred or Beto.

doubledog said:

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So sad that the once strong Texas Democratic party can no longer put forward a strong competent candidate. how far have they have fallen.

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They're all out of unicorns.

Candidates + National mood. November is 20 lifetimes in politics so this is just finger in the air stuff today.

Generic D vs. R in Texas (Fundamentals)
2016: Texas +11 more R than national vote
2020: Texas +10 more R than national vote
2024: Texas +12 more R than national vote

Candidates:
2020: Cornyn +4 more R than Texas Presidential vote
2024: Cruz -5 less R than Texas Presidential vote

My guess on the fundamentals:
Cornyn wins in the primary it would take a +15 D swing in national mode for him to lose the election. +11 for fundamentals and +4 for positive affinity.

Paxton wins the primary and it would take a +6 D swing in national mood for him to lose the election. +11 for fundamentals and -5 for negative affinity.

My assumption is that Paxton is lightening rod and is a far more controversial candidate in a general election than Cornyn, and will do worse. That fits with Cruz's underperformance. That also assumes that Talrico (assumed D primary winner) has 0 negative candidate affinity. Campaigning both ways will decide how favorable / unfavorable he is, just marking at 0 today.

yes. pravda has done a great job of programming a lot of low IQ useful idiots to believe some lies and some things about Paxton that he's been acquitted for and creating controversy around him. if enough idiots that have fallen for it weigh his divorce and his acquitted accusations over all of his actual accomplishments for Texas, then smarmy coward Low T, who flees the state to avoid having to vote on bills and pretends to be man of god, might have a chance to make it close.

4 said:

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Blacks - Crockett+ 72

A voting block that literally doesn't think for themselves, or can't.

They would vote for a cactus plant as long as it was black. It's pretty much the only requirement.

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Sir!!! That is fallacious statement!



They also need to be democrat…

Iraq2xVeteran said:

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aggie93 said:

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Sq 17 said:

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Just curious do you know what the final results of Cruz V Beto during in 2018 - the midterms of Trump's first term

Cruz won by about 2.5%
I would expect Tallirico to keep with 5 against Cornyn with a slight chance at winning and keep it within 2 against Paxton with a reasonable chance at winning

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2018 was the outlier year for Democrats. They had a perfect storm of a red hot candidate who was outspending Cruz by huge margins and getting limitless free media. It was also an off year election of a candidate who had refused to endorse Trump and had very low voter enthusiasm on the GOP side and a complacent GOP base because they have not lost a Statewide election since 2014. Dems literally pulled out all the stops for Beto and he STILL lost by 2.5%.

Then in 2022 the closest GOP race was 10 points for the next off year election and most races were +12 to +16 GOP. 2024 saw Cruz win by 8 against a strong candidate and Trump won by 14 after winning by 6 in '20 and 9 in '16.

Essentially Texas is at least a +10 GOP state, probably closer to +14. That means that any Dem has to overcome that headwind. The race is currently rated as "Likely R" by Cook Political and that's probably being generous. Cornyn has never had a Senate election within 10 points and Paxton won his AG race by 10 as well, that was with furious campaigns against them and strong Dem candidates.

Tallarico isn't anything close to Beto or even Allred. He's a very liberal guy that has positions way out of line with the state population and there isn't anything really special about him. Crockett is a joke. I'm happy for the Dems to set fire to a ton of cash and spend a lot of time thinking they can win in Texas but it's just not happening.

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The GOP have not a Texas statewide election since 1994. Cornyn's closest Senate election margin of victory was 9.6% against Hegar in 2020, which actually surpassed Trump's 5.58% margin of victory, the narrowest for a Republican since 1996. I agree with the rest of your points.

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Sorry mistyped on the 2014, I meant '94 but brainfarted. I remember my first election was '90 when the GOP won only 1 Statewide race for Ag Commish (some guy named Rick Perry) and then by '98 they did a clean sweep for the first time and haven't looked back. I was rounding up on the other 2 numbers.

Malibu said:

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Candidates + National mood. November is 20 lifetimes in politics so this is just finger in the air stuff today.

Generic D vs. R in Texas (Fundamentals)
2016: Texas +11 more R than national vote
2020: Texas +10 more R than national vote
2024: Texas +12 more R than national vote

Candidates:
2020: Cornyn +4 more R than Texas Presidential vote
2024: Cruz -5 less R than Texas Presidential vote

My guess on the fundamentals:
Cornyn wins in the primary it would take a +15 D swing in national mode for him to lose the election. +11 for fundamentals and +4 for positive affinity.

Paxton wins the primary and it would take a +6 D swing in national mood for him to lose the election. +11 for fundamentals and -5 for negative affinity.

My assumption is that Paxton is lightening rod and is a far more controversial candidate in a general election than Cornyn, and will do worse. That fits with Cruz's underperformance. That also assumes that Talrico (assumed D primary winner) has 0 negative candidate affinity. Campaigning both ways will decide how favorable / unfavorable he is, just marking at 0 today.

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Maybe, anything is possible. Paxton did win AG by 10 though last time and was also under a bit of a cloud. If it's close at all he will also get Trump actively supporting him and that should be more than enough. The only way I see the Dems winning Statewide in Texas is if they get someone like Mcconaughey to run that can really get out some new voters. Telarico and Crockett though? Nope, one is boring and liberal, the other is a nutjob that even moderates hate. You fundamentally have to get significant GOP voters to win.

Also, realize that a guy like Paxton has a rock solid base that will walk over glass to vote for him and it's still a midterm where turnout matters.

aggie93 said:

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Malibu said:

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Candidates + National mood. November is 20 lifetimes in politics so this is just finger in the air stuff today.

Generic D vs. R in Texas (Fundamentals)
2016: Texas +11 more R than national vote
2020: Texas +10 more R than national vote
2024: Texas +12 more R than national vote

Candidates:
2020: Cornyn +4 more R than Texas Presidential vote
2024: Cruz -5 less R than Texas Presidential vote

My guess on the fundamentals:
Cornyn wins in the primary it would take a +15 D swing in national mode for him to lose the election. +11 for fundamentals and +4 for positive affinity.

Paxton wins the primary and it would take a +6 D swing in national mood for him to lose the election. +11 for fundamentals and -5 for negative affinity.

My assumption is that Paxton is lightening rod and is a far more controversial candidate in a general election than Cornyn, and will do worse. That fits with Cruz's underperformance. That also assumes that Talrico (assumed D primary winner) has 0 negative candidate affinity. Campaigning both ways will decide how favorable / unfavorable he is, just marking at 0 today.

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Maybe, anything is possible. Paxton did win AG by 10 though last time and was also under a bit of a cloud. If it's close at all he will also get Trump actively supporting him and that should be more than enough. The only way I see the Dems winning Statewide in Texas is if they get someone like Mcconaughey to run that can really get out some new voters. Telarico and Crockett though? Nope, one is boring and liberal, the other is a nutjob that even moderates hate. You fundamentally have to get significant GOP voters to win.

Also, realize that a guy like Paxton has a rock solid base that will walk over glass to vote for him and it's still a midterm where turnout matters.

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Paxtons negatives have gone significantly up since then.

Further complicating this is Trumps negatives are also increasing…which will have an impact on turnout.


November is a long way away but I think Paxton's floor is a lot shakier…Cornyn would likely be fine.


Also, how much national dems want to spend on this race is a question…there's a bit of "Lucy and Charlie" going on.

More data to add to the mix.

2022: Abbott +11
2022: Paxton +10
2022: House of Representatives +6
2024: House of Represenatives +13

That seems to track and HoR is likely most correlated with national mood. Which is that Paxton overperformed by +4. I likely misjudged his negative affinity. I'll put it at +6 to +14 shift D in national mood for Talrico to win here just on fundamentals.

oh no said:

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did anyone expect Crockett to be close in a poll for democrats? Low T Alrico might be a smarmy socialist, but Crockett is almost ritaarded.

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Yo are seriously overestimating the appeal of a felon with an ugly mistress

Wow the trans community has nothing on Pax. All they can do is take a poll about Jazmine and Low T and use it to call Paxton something he's not, a felon, and make fun of his new girlfriend's looks.

So how do you explain how democrats still have a lower favorability than republicans and trump? If Trump and republicans are nazis, democrats are less liked than nazis.

I cannot decide if Telarico looks more like he never hit puberty or he is a teenage girl cosplaying as a boy. He definitely looks like a furry or a pedo. That dude definitely has weird deviant fetishes he is hiding.

Malibu said:

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More data to add to the mix.

2022: Abbott +11
2022: Paxton +10
2022: House of Representatives +6
2024: House of Represenatives +13

That seems to track and HoR is likely most correlated with national mood. Which is that Paxton overperformed by +4. I likely misjudged his negative affinity. I'll put it at +6 to +14 shift D in national mood for Talrico to win here just on fundamentals.

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Part of this is Talarico isn't a serious candidate. He's 36 years old and has lots of easy things to hammer him on. He's big on gun control. He left the state twice to stop a quorum which never plays well. He is big into talking about his religious beliefs but wants nothing to do with Christian values in government. He's a strong opponent of school choice. That's just some of the stuff he's on record with and will be bashed over the head by any Republican and they are all way out of step with Texas voters, he comes across as a liberal who is pretty sanctimonious and really hasn't lived in the real world much. At least Beto did a great job of playing up his persona and went light on issues in 2018. Talarico doesn't have that same kind of cool magnetism.

Crockett will get destroyed by anyone with an R next to her name even if they didn't campaign.

We should all help Crockett win her primary

Prediction:

Talarico easily wins the Democrat nomination.

Paxton defeats Cornyn for the Republican nod.

Talarico defeats Paxton and becomes the first statewide Democrat Texas officeholder in three decades.

Supporting evidence:

That's not a prediction, it's just what you'd love to see happen. There's no supporting evidence that he is a strong candidate in the general at all, just that Jasmine is flaming out earlier than expected.

He's ultimately still just another progressive (aka a communist), trying to dupe Texans into believing he is something else, ahem, a 'moderate.' That won't float, and it would cost a fortune in major media markets to even try to convince enough voters otherwise.

Beto and Allred each raised something close to $80 million and still fell short by at least 3 points with similarly dishonest campaigns. They had a lot more enthusiasm/delusion on their side too. Unfortunately, I don't think Talerico is going to be as successful in parting the LA/NYC elites with piles of cash to burn in a futile general election Texas campaign.

Every liberal is a racist. Prove me wrong.