Teslag said:

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Quote:

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But what if you had siren system just for the camp that was manually triggered?

• Have someone awake and monitoring the water level.
• You would need to have sensors further upstream as well as the immediate area
• If it rose to a certain height or flow rate like mentioned above it would notify the monitor on duty
• That person could then immediately sound the siren or verify then sound the alarm.

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Yes, you could feasibly do this for one specific area in one specific floodway for a few specific structures. Now do it for every single flood prone area in Texas along Zone AE floodways. This is now a sytem that costs $100 Billion and may not always work.

It's cheaper to not build summer camp sleeping cabins in floodways.

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Let's say those camp houses were on stilts like some many beach houses are built. In this flood, would have done nothing to improve the situation. Wall of water would have still been higher. Or if hurricane type of construction with entire cinderblock. reinforced with rebar? Again, would not have helped either. Not in this flood.

I know everybody is all emotional, and rightly so, about this past weekend but at some point you have to realize that nature is nature and does nature things and sometimes those nature things don't work out well for us humans. It's a sad and hard fact of life and no amount of government or warning sirens or anything else will prevent it from happening.

ANY area that is generally of rocky terrain and comprised of hills and valleys is going to have flash flooding as a component of living there. Just like living next to a volcano comes with the risk of earthquakes and eruptions or living next to a fault comes with earthquakes or living on a coastal area comes with tropical storms and hurricanes and flooding as well, etc, etc, etc. There isn't a place on this earth that doesn't have some kind of risk associated with the regional ecosystems - mother nature have designed things that way. We do more to exacerbate natural phenomenon by thinking we can control it because man is arrogant.

You also need to understand that this was just an absolute freak event that was the confluence of the remnants of a pacific tropical system slamming into the remnants of a gulf tropical system and that combination created a pretty unusual weather event that was very similar to Harvey in the fact that it dumped a metric crap ton of rain on a relatively small area over a decently long period of time and didn't move much due to the two opposing forces of each tropical system. And did it all in an area that simply doesn't have the geographical capability to absorb that much water, which means that water does what water does and finds the path of least resistance to the lowest spot it can.

When it comes to people - unfortunately people are people and few things really change that. When you have a lot of people that aren't native to an area and don't really fully understand the concept of flash flooding combined with the fact that we have more and more and more people these days that didn't climb trees or swim in creeks or jump dirt bikes over home made ramps outdoors as kids and simply don't have that "thing" that comes inherent with spending a lot of times outdoors, when bad natural events happen the results tend to be compounded because of the lack of that little voice in the back of your head that kicks your spidey senses into high gear.

Also - how many people even bother looking at their phones anymore when a warning alert comes through? Very, very, very few. We are so condition to have a Pavlovian reaction of reaching over and hitting the mute button because we want the noise to stop these days that alerts have lost a lot of their meaning and don't carry the weight that they should. No different than me on a construction site being so accustomed to backup alarms going off that I catch myself not even paying attention at times to when a piece of equipment is blaring one off in my vicinity. With all of our technology it has become the boy that cried wolf in a lot of aspects because we are constantly inundated with alerts and noises and what not.

Throw all of this together with the fact that the water started rising in the dead of night and that, as we have all seen umpteen times on facebook and instagram, the rise - while fast - isn't an Indiana Jones style wall of water that you can hear from miles away. It's a steady rise that is like a barrel proof whiskey in that you don't often realize it's happening until it hits a critical point and by then it's too late - just like that whiskey doesn't seem like its doing much until you realize you are passed out in a pasture somewhere because it just jumped up and whipped your ass.

The other issue is that assume this magical system that saves the world is created and installed - the first time a false alarm happens heads will roll and that system will become what most other systems like that become - dust collecting relics that don't get used because people that run them are afraid of false alarms and causing widespread panic when nothing happens. Or, much like with tsunami alerts - the alerts do go out but since the last 2 dozen times they went out nothing happened - they get ignored the one time ish gets real. Because that is what people do.

Are there lessons to be learned? Absolutely. But this didn't happen because of a lack of funding for the NWS - in fact there were more people on duty than normal. This didn't happen because of Trump DOGE cuts (those havent gone into effect yet) or Texas lege not passing a bill. This didn't happen because of the made up crap of man made climate change/global warming. And the answer to those lessons learned is absolutely not a new government bureaucracy that will do jack and squat except point the fingers at whomever it is convenient to point the fingers at next time it happens. And it will happen again, because it's the hill country and that is how nature works. There were flash floods 50,000 years ago. There will be flash floods in the future.

aggiehawg said:

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Teslag said:

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Quote:

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But what if you had siren system just for the camp that was manually triggered?

• Have someone awake and monitoring the water level.
• You would need to have sensors further upstream as well as the immediate area
• If it rose to a certain height or flow rate like mentioned above it would notify the monitor on duty
• That person could then immediately sound the siren or verify then sound the alarm.

---

Yes, you could feasibly do this for one specific area in one specific floodway for a few specific structures. Now do it for every single flood prone area in Texas along Zone AE floodways. This is now a sytem that costs $100 Billion and may not always work.

It's cheaper to not build summer camp sleeping cabins in floodways.

---

Let's say those camp houses were on stilts like some many beach houses are built. In this flood, would have done nothing to improve the situation. Wall of water would have still been higher. Or if hurricane type of construction with entire cinderblock. reinforced with rebar? Again, would not have helped either. Not in this flood.

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To clarify, you are not to build ANYTHING in a floodway.

Floodplains you can and should raise them above the proper BFE requirements.

Floodways are a no-go zone though. Given the map Teslag posted, one should be able to determine how high the river got vs floodway and vs floodplain.

That question would be best answered by a structural engineer. I can only tell you how much water is coming, where it's going, and if needed how to detain it for mitigation. There other things engineers can do in flood plains such as filling in with earth to literally bring areas out of floodplains but these usually involve detailed (and expensive) processes like a LOMR which are a flood map revision. Not easy, and not advised many times.

And as flown the coop said, floodways are a no go. FEMA and the corps doesnt' let you jack with those. And these cabins were sitting in one. Looks like the map and base flood elevation were issued for this area in 2011 so it's likely these cabins existed well before that issue.

AJ02 said:

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Teslag said:

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Quote:

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But what if you had siren system just for the camp that was manually triggered?

• Have someone awake and monitoring the water level.
• You would need to have sensors further upstream as well as the immediate area
• If it rose to a certain height or flow rate like mentioned above it would notify the monitor on duty
• That person could then immediately sound the siren or verify then sound the alarm.

---

Yes, you could feasibly do this for one specific area in one specific floodway for a few specific structures. Now do it for every single flood prone area in Texas along Zone AE floodways. This is now a sytem that costs $100 Billion and may not always work.

It's cheaper to not build summer camp sleeping cabins in floodways.

---

How are you arriving at $100 billion? How much does it cost to maintain tornado sirens? Honestly don't know.

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These aren't sirens that are activated by a large incoming weather pattern applicable large swath of multiple counties. Flood areas are often localized. He's also suggestign sensors, with associated communications equipment. That costs dollars. Lots of dollars. Especially in rural remote areas. And we have a lot of floodways in this state.

And again, we don't tornado sirens covering all of our rural areas. Not even close.

Teslag said:

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And as flown the coop said, floodways are a no go. FEMA and the corps doesnt' let you jack with those. And these cabins were sitting in one. Looks like the map and base flood elevation were issued for this area in 2011 so it's likely these cabins existed well before that issue.

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I lived in Austin back when Lake Travis had a bad flood and the LCRA refused to permit any rebuilding unde something like 714 feet elevation. Friend of mine had a family lakehouse that was below that line, entire lot was in fact. IIRC, state bought the property from him

Agree. Monday morning quarterbacks drive me nuts. I live in Kerr County and I know that we get flood warnings multiple times every month. The camp Director did everything right, moved all to higher ground, identifying names written on every girls arm...this was done after the warnings in the early am. NWS warned of flashflood at 4:45a, potentially after the Camp had been hit (somewhere between 4-5 they were hit). One cabin on the higher ground was hit the hardest when the "wall" hit and the director of the camp lost his life trying to get to those girls. It may not have been an "Indian Jones" wall but it was darn close to that....+35' in 29 minutes in the dead of night.

all river monitoring devices were broken durring this event

and BTW, ~6 million Texans live in and 20% of Texas land mass are in a "flood zone"

While all of that is true and I agree in the main, it doesn't negate the question of looking at better options in the future. Human ingenuity is what got us out of caves and gives us a fighting chance in the wild and continues to evolve as we progress. There is zero reason we have to look at this, shrug our shoulders, and just mumble, "**** happens.

We aren't talking sweeping legislation that is going to have feds with their boots on our necks as they tax us into oblivion as they trample on our rights or anything. Explore options, see what is feasible, go from there. I am surprised there is so much pushback about this.

Quote:

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and BTW, ~6 million Texans live in and 20% of Texas land mass are in a "flood zone"

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Flood zones can vary widely. Something like Zone X is only considered low or moderate and doesn't even require flood insurance. This one in question is Zone AE, which is the highest level of risk.

flown-the-coop said:

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It would seem then that the structures were all likely built before the floodway designation.

I am not intending this as a criticism specific to Camp Mystic (and similar), but I have to agree that one should not camp in floodways or evacuate out of them at the first drop of rain.

Be aware of the risks not matter how remote the occurrence may be. Again, sadness and prayers for those impacted.

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If you eliminate the camping in floodways in the hill country river valleys - you effectively eliminate every camp and a whole lot of other things along with them.

A whole lot of state parks would go away as well. The entire old part of Garner, for example, would no longer be useable for camping.

liberals can cut and slice the "data" all they want to root for more government....here it comes

Eliminatus said:

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While all of that is true and I agree in the main, it doesn't negate the question of looking at better options in the future. Human ingenuity is what got us out of caves and gives us a fighting chance in the wild and continues to evolve as we progress. There is zero reason we have to look at this, shrug our shoulders, and just mumble, "**** happens.

We aren't talking sweeping legislation that is going to have feds with their boots on our necks as they tax us into oblivion as they trample on our rights or anything. Explore options, see what is feasible, go from there. I am surprised there is so much pushback about this.

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I never said that. In fact, I said the opposite - only that the answer isn't another bloated government bureacracy that does nothing of value.

Reading. Hard stuff.

Teslag said:

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Quote:

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and BTW, ~6 million Texans live in and 20% of Texas land mass are in a "flood zone"

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Flood zones can vary widely. Something like Zone X is only considered low or moderate and doesn't even require flood insurance. This one in question is Zone AE, which is the highest level of risk.

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Are you proposing legislation forcing everyone in Zone AE to vacate permanently and no human habitation or business to occupy said area?

Teslag said:

---

Quote:

---

But what if you had siren system just for the camp that was manually triggered?

• Have someone awake and monitoring the water level.
• You would need to have sensors further upstream as well as the immediate area
• If it rose to a certain height or flow rate like mentioned above it would notify the monitor on duty
• That person could then immediately sound the siren or verify then sound the alarm.

---

Yes, you could feasibly do this for one specific area in one specific floodway for a few specific structures. Now do it for every single flood prone area in Texas along Zone AE floodways. This is now a sytem that costs $100 Billion and may not always work.

It's cheaper to not build summer camp sleeping cabins in floodways.

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Which is why it might make sense for an individual camp to invest in such a situation right?


If that's the case. I'll donate and raise money for something like that. I also don't have a problem with the government provide money/grants/tax breaks for a person or business who wants to do that themselves and manage it themselves.

I dont' think we should ban campign in floodways or floodplains. However, we shouldn't spend billions of dollars in engineered solutions in blankets of safety to facilitate it either. Doing so comes with an inherent amount of risk, and when doing so the onus of that risk often and should fall on the camper. Now, we should defintely think about going forward if we should have lots of sleeping children in floodways.

Eliminatus said:

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Teslag said:

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Quote:

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and BTW, ~6 million Texans live in and 20% of Texas land mass are in a "flood zone"

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Flood zones can vary widely. Something like Zone X is only considered low or moderate and doesn't even require flood insurance. This one in question is Zone AE, which is the highest level of risk.

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Are you proposing legislation forcing everyone in Zone AE to vacate permanently and no human habitation or business to occupy said area?

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I'm saying if you do so, then you assume the risk of that decision. You shouldn't expect massively engineered solutions to protect you from these events, which are a question of when, not if.

And in terms of summer camps, I wouldnt' be opposed to banning the construction of sleeping areas inside of floodways. And if we do have to mitigate we provide grants or some assitance to move these structures out of them.

schmellba99 said:

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Eliminatus said:

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While all of that is true and I agree in the main, it doesn't negate the question of looking at better options in the future. Human ingenuity is what got us out of caves and gives us a fighting chance in the wild and continues to evolve as we progress. There is zero reason we have to look at this, shrug our shoulders, and just mumble, "**** happens.

We aren't talking sweeping legislation that is going to have feds with their boots on our necks as they tax us into oblivion as they trample on our rights or anything. Explore options, see what is feasible, go from there. I am surprised there is so much pushback about this.

---

I never said that. In fact, I said the opposite - only that the answer isn't another bloated government bureacracy that does nothing of value.

Reading. Hard stuff.

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We both got off track I think. Mea culpa. I have been just referring to working out solutions for better early warning to reach citizens sans big brother oversight. And there is nothing about another bureaucracy being born. I don't consider a council as such personally.

Either way, there are events and actions that take place elsewhere that don't for this area. Maybe those could be looked at for possible implementation to increase lead time for citizens.

Summer Camps/ youth camls already have special rules they need to follow to be a camp. I dont see why not sleeping in a flood zone couldn't be accommodated.

But, rv parks, city parks, public campground etc, shouldn't be risk free to the point of overly obstructing our liberty. I have little doubt insurance availability will force rv campgrounds to take action.

Quote:

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And again, we don't tornado sirens covering all of our rural areas. Not even close

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You keep saying this yet small towns in midwestern states all have tornado sirens and none of those states have the resources Texas has.

And Kerrville and the Texas hill country isn't rural anymore. This ain't 1930s Texas we are talking about.

I dont think flood sirens would be too big an investment to make into "flood alley"

Quote:

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You keep saying this yet small towns in midwestern states all have tornado sirens and none of those states have the resources Texas has.

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Yes, the towns do. But not outside of them and that's my point. I live rural, 3 miles outside of town. If the sirens go off in town I don't hear them. We don't have them. These flood areas and camps/campgrounds are far outside of towns and often in areas with little to no communication.

Teslag said:

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Eliminatus said:

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Teslag said:

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Quote:

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and BTW, ~6 million Texans live in and 20% of Texas land mass are in a "flood zone"

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Flood zones can vary widely. Something like Zone X is only considered low or moderate and doesn't even require flood insurance. This one in question is Zone AE, which is the highest level of risk.

---

Are you proposing legislation forcing everyone in Zone AE to vacate permanently and no human habitation or business to occupy said area?

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I'm saying if you do so, then you assume the risk of that decision. You shouldn't expect massively engineered solutions to protect you from these events, which are a question of when, not if.

And in terms of summer camps, I wouldnt' be opposed to banning the construction of sleeping areas inside of floodways. And if we do have to mitigate we provide grants or some assitance to move these structures out of them.

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Ok, so where is the line then? What separates this area from any other I mentioned previously. Or anything else that we do as a society that protects people from themselves? Do we stop manufacturing Narcan used mainly on junkies for example?

Not trying to be an ass. I am genuinely curious as to your thinking here and whether you think it is feasible or just more venting than anything.

Quote:

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Ok, so where is the line then? What separates this area from any other I mentioned previously. Or anything else that we do as a society that protects people from themselves?

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You calculate the total cost and divide by the number of people impacted. Obviously, something like hurricane warnings and systems is valuable, since virtually all coastlines are impacted amounting to millions of people and billions in businesses.

But say is even a $20 Billion investment in flood warning worth it? On average 120 people per year in Texas die by floodwaters. Say it saves 50 of them. Is that the best use of limited resources?

This isn't cold or callous, but it's how resource allocation is determined, and engineered.

Quote:

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Yes, the towns do. But not outside of them and that's my point. I live rural, 3 miles outside of town. If the sirens go off in town I don't hear them. We don't have them. These flood areas and camps/campgrounds are far outside of towns and often in areas with little to no communication

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There is a high density of camps in that area that contribute to the local economies. There is no reason they can't have a monitoring and siren system in those areas.

rgvag11 said:

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The measure, House Bill 13, would have created a new government council to establish the emergency response plan and administer the grant program, both of which would have been aimed at facilitating better communication between first responders. The bill also called for the plan to include "the use of outdoor warning sirens," like those used in tornado-prone Texas counties, and develop new "emergency alert systems." Authored by Rep. Ken King, R-Canadian, the legislation was inspired by last year's devastating wildfires in the Panhandle, where more than 1 million acres burned - including part of King's property - and three people died. The bill failed in the Texas Senate, prompting newfound questions about whether lawmakers should have done more to help rural, cash-strapped counties stave off the deadly effects of future natural disasters.


"I can tell you in hindsight, watching what it takes to deal with a disaster like this, my vote would probably be different now," said Virdell, a freshman GOP lawmaker from Brady.

https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/06/texas-disaster-warning-emergency-communication-bill-kerrville-floods/

Maybe this is Texas Congress' wake up call. We can only hope.

---

Here's the text...

It didn't actually say the bolded in the bill.

Teslag said:

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AJ02 said:

---

Teslag said:

---

Quote:

---

But what if you had siren system just for the camp that was manually triggered?

• Have someone awake and monitoring the water level.
• You would need to have sensors further upstream as well as the immediate area
• If it rose to a certain height or flow rate like mentioned above it would notify the monitor on duty
• That person could then immediately sound the siren or verify then sound the alarm.

---

Yes, you could feasibly do this for one specific area in one specific floodway for a few specific structures. Now do it for every single flood prone area in Texas along Zone AE floodways. This is now a sytem that costs $100 Billion and may not always work.

It's cheaper to not build summer camp sleeping cabins in floodways.

---

How are you arriving at $100 billion? How much does it cost to maintain tornado sirens? Honestly don't know.

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These aren't sirens that are activated by a large incoming weather pattern applicable large swath of multiple counties. Flood areas are often localized. He's also suggestign sensors, with associated communications equipment. That costs dollars. Lots of dollars. Especially in rural remote areas. And we have a lot of floodways in this state.

And again, we don't tornado sirens covering all of our rural areas. Not even close.

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;I never heard one in the 20 years I lived west of Weatherford...

Ag with kids said:

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rgvag11 said:

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The measure, House Bill 13, would have created a new government council to establish the emergency response plan and administer the grant program, both of which would have been aimed at facilitating better communication between first responders. The bill also called for the plan to include "the use of outdoor warning sirens," like those used in tornado-prone Texas counties, and develop new "emergency alert systems." Authored by Rep. Ken King, R-Canadian, the legislation was inspired by last year's devastating wildfires in the Panhandle, where more than 1 million acres burned - including part of King's property - and three people died. The bill failed in the Texas Senate, prompting newfound questions about whether lawmakers should have done more to help rural, cash-strapped counties stave off the deadly effects of future natural disasters.


"I can tell you in hindsight, watching what it takes to deal with a disaster like this, my vote would probably be different now," said Virdell, a freshman GOP lawmaker from Brady.

https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/06/texas-disaster-warning-emergency-communication-bill-kerrville-floods/

Maybe this is Texas Congress' wake up call. We can only hope.

---

Here's the text...

It didn't actually say the bolded in the bill.

---

So rgvag11 was wrong?

Teslag said:

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An alarm system likely wouldnt' have done much. Too much water, much too fast. We simply can't vote our way to safety for many of these disasters. The easiest and best solution is to not build habitable structures in floodways/floodplains.

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Agree but who will stop children retreat camps from putting lodging in floodplains?

When was the last time the formation of a government council ever solved a problem?

Teslag said:

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Quote:

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Ok, so where is the line then? What separates this area from any other I mentioned previously. Or anything else that we do as a society that protects people from themselves?

---

You calculate the total cost and divide by the number of people impacted. Obviously, something like hurricane warnings and systems is valuable, since virtually all coastlines are impacted amounting to millions of people and billions in businesses.

But say is even a $20 Billion investment in flood warning worth it? On average 120 people per year in Texas die by floodwaters. Say it saves 50 of them. Is that the best use of limited resources?

This isn't cold or callous, but it's how resource allocation is determined, and engineered.

---

Ok, figure out how much some options would cost, do the math, go from there. Have no idea where you are getting your figure from but seems pretty high. I know tornado sirens cost low double digit thousands per and not even saying that is the best method. And pretty sure a substantial portion could be covered by federal grants. They usually do. So a portion of up front and maintenance is what would be on the hook for us.

Just saying, nothing wrong with looking into it again. Especially with federal eyes focused on the issue right now. If something feasible and not astronomical in price can be achieved, explore it.

Camps must be certified by the state. Some of those certification requirements is the lodging.

The state could easily make a requirement for no lodging in the 100/500 year flood plain and if a camp doesn't comply, could disqualify it from getting its state qualifications.

*from someone who went through the process and went through yearly such inspections.

schmellba99 said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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It would seem then that the structures were all likely built before the floodway designation.

I am not intending this as a criticism specific to Camp Mystic (and similar), but I have to agree that one should not camp in floodways or evacuate out of them at the first drop of rain.

Be aware of the risks not matter how remote the occurrence may be. Again, sadness and prayers for those impacted.

---

If you eliminate the camping in floodways in the hill country river valleys - you effectively eliminate every camp and a whole lot of other things along with them.

A whole lot of state parks would go away as well. The entire old part of Garner, for example, would no longer be useable for camping.

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Camping and lodges for children are 2 different things.

A cheap weather radio would have sufficed.

aginlakeway said:

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Ag with kids said:

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rgvag11 said:

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The measure, House Bill 13, would have created a new government council to establish the emergency response plan and administer the grant program, both of which would have been aimed at facilitating better communication between first responders. The bill also called for the plan to include "the use of outdoor warning sirens," like those used in tornado-prone Texas counties, and develop new "emergency alert systems." Authored by Rep. Ken King, R-Canadian, the legislation was inspired by last year's devastating wildfires in the Panhandle, where more than 1 million acres burned - including part of King's property - and three people died. The bill failed in the Texas Senate, prompting newfound questions about whether lawmakers should have done more to help rural, cash-strapped counties stave off the deadly effects of future natural disasters.


"I can tell you in hindsight, watching what it takes to deal with a disaster like this, my vote would probably be different now," said Virdell, a freshman GOP lawmaker from Brady.

https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/06/texas-disaster-warning-emergency-communication-bill-kerrville-floods/

Maybe this is Texas Congress' wake up call. We can only hope.

---

Here's the text...

It didn't actually say the bolded in the bill.

---

So rgvag11 was wrong?

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The day DOES end in a Y, doesn't it?