Teslag said:

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Your entire argument is ignoring the I in that formula in this situation.

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This is wrong too. We generally model for multiple events (ie Q2, Q5, Q25, and Q100). The I is never "ignored" i assure you.

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You have completely ignored the "I" in this conversation, appearing to assume it by saying that this rain event was "modeled".

And its interesting that you call meteorology quackery yet rely upon their rainfall models.

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Yes, but that is a bureaucratic classification.

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This is incorrect as well. Floodways have defined hydraulic properties. This graphic can explain it far better than I could.



That's why I said purposely building permanent sleeping structures in floodways (not floodplains) is insanity.

There are many folks who don't understand what "50/100/500 year floods" are. To the layman, the storm that provides a 50 year flood is a "freak" because they'll likely only be impacted by a couple throughout their entire lives. But to those who look at it from the statistical perspective; these type of rain events (and worse) are inevitabilities.

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You have completely ignored the "I" in this conversation, appearing to assume it by saying that this rain event was "modeled".

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But we haven't. The map is based on Q100. We knew for a fact that these cabins would be inundated in a Q100 storm. And they were. And though not modeled in the map, it's likely the same would have happened in Q50 based on the elevations.

Get Off My Lawn said:

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There are many folks who don't understand what "50/100/500 year floods" are. To the layman, the storm that provides a 50 year flood is a "freak" because they'll likely only be impacted by a couple throughout their entire lives. But to those who look at it from the statistical perspective; these type of rain events (and worse) are inevitabilities.

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I could see that. And I would say that's part of the problem. We assume that since these return events are 100 years, 50 years, etc that they surely won't affect us. So we get lazy. Or just comfortable. And a lot of it is the naming as well. Calling it a "100 year storm" leads people to believe these storms will only come very 100 years. That's not the case. It's just a 1% chance annually. So every single year it's possible these "freak" storms can happen.

King is pretty much dead wrong on this topic. Teslag isn't doing a great job explaining his points (even though King is ignoring factual statements).

#1 FEMA flood zones were created in the mid 1970's. They're not always correct or updated often enough based on real time data. For instance, HCFCD is updating the FEMA maps from 2017 Harvey, they're STILL not complete and this is with massive amounts of dollars being sent their way.

So this brings up issue A: when structures existed before the FEMA floodmaps were created, what happens to them? They're grandfathered in because for them to be removed the federal government has to pay fair market value for the structures and the land. This is cost prohibitive and in Harris County entire segments of homes (Banana Bend) took years to buy out and demo and these were built IN the floodway. Current regs prohibit construct IN the floodway.

#2, Kern is a rural county, so the amount of $$$ they have to spend on emergency management and prep is going to be smaller. If the state failed, that's an entirely different argument.

#3, the FEMA maps are based on the topography of the flood basin (or watershed) that collects rainfall where it drains down into whatever channel system exists. All FEMA maps are based on riverine flooding, so all the water flows downhill, basic concept.

Where things get difficult is the weather system prediction software can predict rain, but the Where and Intensity is very difficult. If it's raining harder over a short amount of time AND the basin that's collecting the rainfall is steep, the VELOCITY of that water rushing down into the channel is very difficult to predict. Downstream flooding where 1 or more basins drain into a single channel can complicate matters.

So the question is what is the 100year flood plain? That's a 1% chance the area within the floodplain will flood each year. It could happen 3 years in a row, but the probability are low. However if it does then it's possible the floodway needs to expand or the 100 year floodzone needs to be expanded. This would impact insurance rates, building standards and what permits may be issued.

This all becomes more complicated if a lot of construction in the basin is being done where increased impervious surfaces are being created which increases runoff because the land cannot detain rainwater.

Does human error come into play? Yes. During Harvey the Army Corps of Engineers opened the Addicts Dam floodgate around 1am and didn't alert enough people which caused mass flooding. Did the city manager totally screw up? It's quite possible enough people weren't paying attention. Esp if they're visitors and aren't aware of the danger they may be in. The owner of the camp, and any permanent staff, should have been monitoring the situation.

Regarding where to build: there's risk to every location. Tornadoes, hurricanes, fires, hail, earthquakes, blizzards, etc. Anyone who has descended from scorched Hill Country August into the oasis that is the Guadalupe understands why folks would take a 1% annual risk to be down near the water. It's what makes camps and camp grounds down there so popular and so magical.

Thank you, and yes your explanation was better than mine. Probably why every firm I've worked for doesn't like to put me in front of clients.

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This all becomes more complicated if a lot of construction in the basin is being done where increased impervious surfaces are being created which increases runoff because the land cannot detain rainwater.

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This is one of the main issues I had explaining to people when I worked for the Corps. A rancher or landowner would want input regarding potential flooding or stream alteration and would disagree with our assessment. Mostly based on his knowledge of the land (and his dad's, grandfather's, etc) and that it has never flooded to the extents we show. And he's probably right. But what he's not seeing is the new subdivision built upstream in the last 20 years. Or large shopping center full of concrete parking lots a few miles upstream of that one. And so on and so on. All of those have an effect on the watershed and subsequent downstream condition. And unfortunately for him, that all affects his property in a way that he or his relatives had never seen before. Nor could they.

This is a good example of what I had in mind.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/deadly-texas-floods-one-town-warning-siren-rcna217202


Comfort, TX (pop 2300) installed a new warning system and siren at their VFD. They took the old one and moved it down by Cypress Creek which tends to flood. When the flooding event started, the siren which was now located in the flood plane went off in case anyone missed the previous warning on news, tv, radio, or phone (or if they were asleep). I went to their facebook page and apparently the system is tied into the USGS sensors at Cypress Creek. When the water reached a certain level, the siren automatically sounded. There's a USGS senor in Hunt downstream of Camp Mystic so I don't know how useful that would be in this specific case



https://www.facebook.com/share/15zTsWmb8R/
https://www.comfortvfd.org/elementor-403/





If a town like Comfort can afford something like this, it seems feasible that this is a potential cost effective solution that many municipalities or businesses could afford.

Sirens are connected to a specific network, and old software is limited.

Newer sirens have solar compatibilities, eliminating the need for electricity, which can be very expensive. They can also use different tones for different alerts. This can cause confusion; however, the alerting process is key. Cell phone notifications are limited, and in many towns, the resident must select which alerts they want to receive. However, newer systems in towns can automatically push notifications to anyone within a certain radius or distance.

Emergency networks and options are improving rapidly; however, states, counties, local towns, etc need to push this data to remote locations so they can choose what is best for them. Emergency contingencies always improve after a tragic event.

Get Off My Lawn said:

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Regarding where to build: there's risk to every location. Tornadoes, hurricanes, fires, hail, earthquakes, blizzards, etc. Anyone who has descended from scorched Hill Country August into the oasis that is the Guadalupe understands why folks would take a 1% annual risk to be down near the water. It's what makes camps and camp grounds down there so popular and so magical.

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And that's understandable. And as I said I've done it too. I've camped in a 100 year floodplain overnight in Kerrville. Guilty. It can and should be allowed. But I knew the dangers and if any significant or moderate rain was predicted I'd have canceled or left. Where it gets dicey for me is building and/or continuing to allow for permanent child sleeping structures in them. At the very least we can and should move them out of floodways. That's literally just asking for it to happen again. And if we need to assist in funding to get them out, I'm okay with it. It's cheaper than elaborate alarm systems.

nai06 said:

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This is a good example of what I had in mind.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/deadly-texas-floods-one-town-warning-siren-rcna217202


Comfort, TX (pop 2300) installed a new warning system and siren at their VFD. They took the old one and moved it down by Cypress Creek which tends to flood. When the flooding event started, the siren which was now located in the flood plane went off in case anyone missed the previous warning on news, tv, radio, or phone (or if they were asleep). I went to their facebook page and apparently the system is tied into the USGS sensors at Cypress Creek. When the water reached a certain level, the siren automatically sounded. There's a USGS senor in Hunt downstream of Camp Mystic so I don't know how useful that would be in this specific case



https://www.facebook.com/share/15zTsWmb8R/
https://www.comfortvfd.org/elementor-403/





If a town like Comfort can afford something like this, it seems feasible that this is a potential cost effective solution that many municipalities or businesses could afford.

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From your article...

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It is impossible to know whether a siren system in Kerr County would have saved lives; they are meant to alert people who are outdoors, not in bed indoors, as many of Kerr County's victims were when the river rose overnight at one point by 26 feet in just 45 minutes.

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I can kind of see both sides here. But I can tell you one thing is for sure. This was a wake up call, and I will never be sending my daughter to an extended camp even close to potential flash flood paths. That concern would not have even been on my radar before this event...and truth be told, statistically, it probably still should not be...but it's such a gut wrenching story that many of us are pretty closely connected to, so, similar to with school shootings, our logic can be clouded by our emotional responses.

They could continue to host camp there several thousand times, with zero new warning systems in place, and this would very likely never happen again. Not THIS fast and not in the middle of the night. It is such a freak deal. Even knowing that, I will be scoping the loyout and topography of any camp my daughter wants to attend in the future...and if severe flooding is even a distant possibility, I'll X it off our list.

Teslag said:

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It is impossible to know whether a siren system in Kerr County would have saved lives; they are meant to alert people who are outdoors, not in bed indoors, as many of Kerr County's victims were when the river rose overnight at one point by 26 feet in just 45 minutes.

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In 2015, a tornado hit our house. We were not at home; however, there were approximately 15 seconds between the siren going off and the tornado hitting our house. Neighbors that were at home had very little time to react.

I'm glad you feel this way. Sadly, most people don't, because they weigh the risk against the natural beauty of being close to the water. So it will happen again, and we will still be here wondering why people didn't learn the last time it happened.

A very fair question everyone should ask when visiting or staying in an area near any water body is: what sort of flood warning system is in place. Where do you evacuate to? Who monitors the system in the middle of the night?

In addition, bring your own NOAA alert radio:
https://www.amazon.com/Emergency-Portable-Rechargeable-Flashlight-Survival/dp/B08SQ6YJ9T/ref=sr_1_6?crid=2K2DVRH4M3TXY&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.bVTkb8bnkXJbhGqWvtAvlGwOY6HgNkqtGmvqqcqO15N-HIlmNGc2gNfdoxAbpoTMrAXvqD_C3ekxw9keMzlEPeLxM1srCVzHyUFxIcFwDdST_rS2Hfo2zSIdF70sKI7eTKRFTu8tCNlR-QLI0Dkz0EWNFijiB0RGivjfW1FBSG33XCGLulKx_VPru8_uqdRF-6DpcJ8IjCMoWEVtUWlqd7y5ADAIxnJhL9kugLL3WoQ.m1syXDS7FO-Y4pva4ib9TU415ZoLvJqxB2kvFjWEyWo&dib_tag=se&keywords=noaa%2Bemergency%2Bweather%2Bradio&qid=1751988161&sprefix=noaa%2B%2Caps%2C150&sr=8-6&th=1

El Gallo Blanco said:

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I can kind of see both sides here. But I can tell you one thing is for sure. This was a wake up call, and I will never be sending my daughter to an extended camp even close to potential flash flood paths. That concern would not have even been on my radar before this event...and truth be told, statistically, it probably still should not be...but it's such a gut wrenching story that many of us are pretty closely connected to, so, similar to with school shootings, our logic can be clouded by our emotional responses.

They could continue to host camp there several thousand times, with zero new warning systems in place, and this would very likely never happen again. Not THIS fast and not in the middle of the night. It is such a freak deal. Even knowing that, I will be scoping the loyout and topography of any camp my daughter wants to attend in the future...and if severe flooding is even a distant possibility, I'll X it off our list.

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I was a summer camp counselor at a camp in spicewood for 3 summers and on the leadership team my last summer (ie, I didn't have any campers, I had staff).

We didn't have to worry about floods, but we did have plans for severe storms, tornadoes and fire. We drilled these plans with the counselors and sometimes with the campers.

The best laid plans can go to **** sometimes

Another option would be for the camps to have their version of a "fire watch" where staffers are monitoring an noaa radio or alerts 24hrs a day

HTownAg98 said:

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I'm glad you feel this way. Sadly, most people don't, because they weigh the risk against the natural beauty of being close to the water. So it will happen again, and we will still be here wondering why people didn't learn the last time it happened.

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You can be close to these awesome bodies of water at camp...just have the cabins much further back. I am not blaming anyone, but this will never happen again, at least not in this way, because any camp who puts young children in cabins in the flash flood zone will go out of business. I don't think some realize how scared this has parents.

You risk your camp business going completely under if you don't make adjustments that would have saved lives here.

As a counselor, do you think being required to have a NOAA weather radio in every cabin in flood prone areas is a fair ask? My understanding is these things are loud and you can't sleep through them.

El Gallo Blanco said:

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HTownAg98 said:

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I'm glad you feel this way. Sadly, most people don't, because they weigh the risk against the natural beauty of being close to the water. So it will happen again, and we will still be here wondering why people didn't learn the last time it happened.

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You can be close to these awesome bodies of water at camp...just have the cabins much further back. I am not blaming anyone, but this will never happen again, at least not in this way, because any camp who puts young children in cabins in the flash flood zone will go out of business. I don't think some realize how scared this has parents.

You risk your camp business going completely under if you don't nmake adjustments that would have saved lives here.

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And also just understanding how FAST these things can happen. We now have video of these things happening in real time so people can see or themselves just how quickly it happens. I can bet a lot of people thought these floods came with ample time to gather your belongings and get out. Awareness to me is a huge part of the issue. Much bigger than warning systems.

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The best laid plans can go to **** sometimes

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And to add, I think this is why I, and a few other posters, advocate we move as many of the sleeping structures out of the floodplain as we can. Move them to an area where a plan isn't even necessary.

Also from the article:

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It could have helped, she said, to have had "a siren like they do with tornadoes," she said.

"Sirens go off and wake people up."

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Teslag said:

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As a counselor, do you think being required to have a NOAA weather radio in every cabin in flood prone areas is a fair ask? My understanding is these things are loud and you can't sleep through them.

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No, I think you could have one in a central, monitored location or perhaps have one in the "staff" cabin.

Teslag said:

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From your article...

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It is impossible to know whether a siren system in Kerr County would have saved lives; they are meant to alert people who are outdoors, not in bed indoors, as many of Kerr County's victims were when the river rose overnight at one point by 26 feet in just 45 minutes.

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Again I very much agree that it's impossible to know if it would have saved lives. I can only speak from personal experience, but I have been woken up from a dead sleep by tornado sirens before. Even with flooding, just a couple of minutes can mean the difference from getting swept away to making it out.



This specific flood aside, I am positive that it would be useful in less severe flash floods as well. I feel like its such a defeatist attitude to say, "well we couldn't have done anything different that would have mattered so let's not try anything different or look for a better solution moving forward."

If I were a camp director, after these storms, I'd do the following:

1. Move as much lodging out of the flood plains as quickly as possible
2. Put evac maps in each cabin and have rally locations. Ensure that part of the welcoming process includes instructions (both verbal and physical walking the route). These rally points should be a physical structure, lighted and be relatively easy to access. Id even be tempted to have a box that contains rosters of who should be counted at each rally point that is updated each new camp term (some terms are 1 week, some are 2 weeks, some are longer sessions)
3. Establish a weather person. This person is responsible for daily forecasts and to monitor weather conditions and potential alerts
4. Establish a "fire watch." Just like at boot camp- a nightly rotating watch schedule is observed by all staff to monitor weather or other conditions as necessary and be able to alert the appropriate leadership in cases of emergency
5. Establish and drill emergency evacuation, shelter, active shoter, intruder etc plans (most already do this)
6. Establish cabin boxes that have immediately accessible safety gear- life jackets(where necessary), flashlights, candles, lighters, water, etc). The boxes are to be locked in each cabin and checked weekly by the cabin staff (some camps might already do this)
7. Establish direct lines of communication with county/state resources for emergency services (some probably already do that)


I think these steps are pretty easily achieved, except perhaps moving lodging, and they can do most of it right now.

One downfall of NOAA alerts is it is radio. So you have to know even where you are (so this should be published on camp site info). But even then, in Harris County we'll get a tornado alert, it could be 50 miles away. Or you'll get alerts for Montgomery or Ft Bend counties.

Which is why more alert systems are moving to cellular so they can be broadcast by tower's that may be impacted to keep the data more localized. And the reason for this is you don't want to induce panic.

Point is, this can be very complicated to give out clear, concise accurate information quickly enough that it can be acted on.

That is an excellent common sense list of things to do. I wonder if this was in place at any camps.

This flood hits home for me because my daughter was a counselor at Camp Waldemar. Waldemar didn't get hit as hard as Mystic, but I do know their camp director moved all the kids out of the low cabins the evening before when the weather alerts went out. I don't know if that was part of a plan that Waldemar had or if the director did that on her own.

For the camps, they could have a few camp phones that are set up for alerts. Or anyone who is designated a counselor has to connect their phone to the alert system so they get alerts while they're there.

Comal County's flood warning system on the Guadalupe with 8 sirens cost $380,000. They're automated, tied to sensors and require no human intervention to trigger.

I don't think anyone is throwing their hands up. Most are realizing the futility of an alert system for an event where often it's too late once those flood waters start to rise and trigger alarms. Our attention, efforts, and resources can be far more effective elsewhere.

Yet tornado alley does have a system in place.

The city leaders mention Flash Flood Alley like a badge of honor and yet they have have no system in place beyond what the federal government provides to mitigate risk.

This is a good point, but even a cell tower covers dozens or hundreds of square miles. These systems work in concert : NWS alerts and weather radio should prompt you (or the camp staff) to pay attention (assuming you're going to ignore the advice to move to higher ground ).

Kids should be briefed when they arrive - "if you hear the siren, run for your lives" (hopefully up a clearly signposted escape route to high ground).

This is, incidentally, how most systems based around Tsunamis (Japan), missile warning systems (Israel, Ukraine) work. Watches are issued for broad areas, and sirens are used to get people into shelters or high ground.

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Yet tornado alley does have a system in place.

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And in many areas it is largely useless. I live in tornado alley. Our nearest town has an alarm. When it goes off we don't hear it.

As Texans mourn this tragedy, we must not accept that we are powerless to do more to prevent future loss of life from flash floods.

I am grateful Governor @GregAbbott_TX has announced we will work to address this during the upcoming Special Session in 2 weeks; and, the Texas…

— Dustin Burrows (@Burrows4TX) July 8, 2025

the linked Chron article is worth a read https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/outlook/article/texas-flash-flood-prevent-gauge-warnings-20759811.php