rwtxag83 said:

---

I keep hearing about comparisons to the 1987 floods because of how high the water was then and now. Think about this:

The world was very different in 1987. Cell phones and the internet were practically non existent. Communication isn't even in the same universe. I mean Monday morning start putting a plan together.
...
...
...

---

Funny when I hear the 'youngins talk like this. I'm assuming you were born in '83. because otherwise you'd know that in 1987 we had light speed visual, voice, and graphical communications. A very good understanding of the weather, satellites, decent forecast modeling, AFOS anyone and even a gadget called radar, specifically the WSR-57

There were helicopters and IC powered ground vehicles, machines to make loud noises and even radar. Point is if you had a TV, phone, or radio you could keep up in almost real time. However like today its that people be distracted, or not caring about whats going on. In both 1987 and to a lessor extent 2025 caution flags were raised. Did people listen ?

To be far the 2025 flood event was meteorologically very rare and complex. The '87 even more conventional. In many ways the 2025 event was more of an ambush.

And as far as safety and warning what do you think about banning people from camping near the river- Libs have been floating the idea in mass.

This needs to be done. Also, I would like to see roads with open access away from the river to the higher ground. We were trapped and lucky to be alive. Just below Mystic. If we could have driven straight uphill we would have escaped easily.

Well, I was just referred to as a fascist for saying this event shouldn't be politicized.

Hindsight is always 20/20, and we are always at risk for under reacting when "it's never happened before".

But these camps didn't really need fancy equipment, nor did they need to evacuate upon just an issued FF watch.

Ideal would be if you're under a FF watch, an adult at every cabin stays "on duty" until the watch is lifted. Even as fast as the rivers do rise, one awake adult at each cabin could have quickly walked the campers right out of harms way. The problem is you do not have any minutes to spare, so if you're awakened to the water already in your cabin it's often too late.

FrioAg 00 said:

---

Hindsight is always 20/20, and we are always at risk for under reacting when "it's never happened before".

But these camps didn't really need fancy equipment, nor did they need to evacuate upon just an issued FF watch.

Ideal would be if you're under a FF watch, an adult at every cabin stays "on duty" until the watch is lifted. Even as fast as the rivers do rise, one awake adult at each cabin could have quickly walked the campers right out of harms way. The problem is you do not have any minutes to spare, so if you're awakened to the water already in your cabin it's often too late.

---

Who were the adults on duty?

Pacifico said:

---

FrioAg 00 said:

---

Hindsight is always 20/20, and we are always at risk for under reacting when "it's never happened before".

But these camps didn't really need fancy equipment, nor did they need to evacuate upon just an issued FF watch.

Ideal would be if you're under a FF watch, an adult at every cabin stays "on duty" until the watch is lifted. Even as fast as the rivers do rise, one awake adult at each cabin could have quickly walked the campers right out of harms way. The problem is you do not have any minutes to spare, so if you're awakened to the water already in your cabin it's often too late.

---

Who were the adults on duty?

---

The camp director is dead from trying to rescue those girls.

Pacifico said:

---

A. G. Pennypacker said:

---

TRM said:

---

They had warning and were executing an evacuation plan, but the water level rose too much. Sometimes those tail events are much worse than you plan for.

All I'll say is this. The National Weather Service issued a flood watch for Kerr County more than 12 hours ahead of the catastrophic flood. A flash flood warning was issued for Hunt & Ingram 3 HOURS before the Guadalupe started to climb.

They did their job and they did it well

— Avery Tomasco (@averytomascowx) July 5, 2025

---

Obviously there is a failure in how to warn people in the middle of the night.

---

Who was the adult in charge at Camp Mystic?

---

There were adults in charge. The problem is the waters came up so fast that the warnings came in at the same time and through the "fog of war," people couldn't get evacuated in time.

Staff

If you drive west on H39 through all the camps you end up in ranch country. There are 10-12 different river crossings on the South Fork of the Guad. Those ranchers all have their residence up on a high hill, away from the river. That should probably tell us something, but people love water and being near it, with its inherant risks.

Nm

I understand emotions are running high - I was just responding to OPs idea that technology was the needed solution. I think you could do better with a process change.

The director did die, heroically, saving as many kids as he could. I'm certainly not criticizing him. If someone had been awake and alert in each cabin, those extra few minutes of action when the water was rising to approach would have made all the difference in getting them out and uphill.

I have been present for hill country flash floods several times over the years - they do happen extremely fast but you have a few minutes. The key is to get away quickly when it first starts.

Mrs Majors (down river from Garner) came flying down the hill back in the mid 80's blaring her horn and yelling out the window to all her campsites "get up the hill now", probably saved at least 7-10 families because she stayed awake when everyone else went to sleep.

ttu_85 said:

---

rwtxag83 said:

---

I keep hearing about comparisons to the 1987 floods because of how high the water was then and now. Think about this:

The world was very different in 1987. Cell phones and the internet were practically non existent. Communication isn't even in the same universe. I mean Monday morning start putting a plan together.
...
...
...

---

Funny when I hear the 'youngins talk like this. I'm assuming you were born in '83. because otherwise you'd know that in 1987 we had light speed visual, voice, and graphical communications. A very good understanding of the weather, satellites, decent forecast modeling, AFOS anyone and even a gadget called radar, specifically the WSR-57

There were helicopters and IC powered ground vehicles, machines to make loud noises and even radar. Point is if you had a TV, phone, or radio you could keep up in almost real time. However like today its that people be distracted, or not caring about whats going on. In both 1987 and to a lessor extent 2025 caution flags were raised. Did people listen ?

To be far the 2025 flood event was meteorologically very rare and complex. The '87 even more conventional. In many ways the 2025 event was more of an ambush.

And as far as safety and warning what do you think about banning people from camping near the river- Libs have been floating the idea in mass.

---

Ok, now you're just being a smartass.

So, Mr smartass, how many people had a cellphone in 1987? I'll wager zero. If 90% or more of the adults in that immediate area had a working cellphone, it seems to me there is a direct method to reach them directly on an individual basis.

In 1987 did the average adult in a place like this have the ability to know how hard it's raining a few miles upriver within 10 seconds? Maybe in your twisted world view they did, but most people in places like this didn't have a tv or a radio in their cabin. The cellphone changes all that. Yet, you know all this, and choose to make light of me saying changes need to be made by saying 'I assume you were born in '83 because otherwise you'd know...' 20 little girls were swept down river and now their families are trying to make sense of it.



The camp director who tried to get the little girls out lost their life heroically. If they had started taking action 10 minutes sooner, likely none of them die. Maybe even 5 minutes earlier. At this point in time, with the technology we have available, there should be a more effective way to get the word to a responsible adult in each cabin sooner. Some kind of an alarm system. And the emergency procedures need to be rehearsed every time there's a new group of kids. If you're going to be responsible for the lives of the kids in your career, you have to do better.

Several people on this thread mentioned speaking in absolute terms and saying it will happen again, and I get that. I agree it will happen again because some people will ignore the warning signs. I get it, but that's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about kids in youth camps and developing procedures to get the extra 10 minutes. Procedures that are simple, repeatable, and regularly rehearsed. Sounds like the place had a plan that was being carried out, but it fell short. The plan or the way it was carried out wasn't good enough to save those lives. Changes are needed.

lb3 said:

---

Regardless of big government solutions, people should install their own alarms. While this river rose 10s of feet in less than an hour, it wasn't instant. Even 3 minutes notice would save lives.

We could also quit building in the floodway but who wants to give up their view or river access.

---

In 1976 the Big Thompson flash flooded (Estes Park CO). I drove up 34 (after the road was reopened). There was total destruction, up to a few hundred feet. The last time I drove 34 was in 2024. People have built homes a few feet from the river. It is not a matter of if the Big Thompson will flash flood, it is a matter of when. In 1976 there was a proposal, for the state to purchase? the land along the Big Thompson canyon. That proposal never made it to the next stage.

Would people even have the awareness of where they are and to evacuate immediately?

agsalaska said:

---

lb3 said:

---

Regardless of big government solutions, people should install their own alarms. While this river rose 10s of feet in less than an hour, it wasn't instant. Even 3 minutes notice would save lives.

We could also quit building in the floodway but who wants to give up their view or river access.

---

Sort of. If you watch the videos the wall of water is pretty instant.

When they say it rise 27 feet in 45 minutes, half of that happens in about two minutes. I saw a video of the wall earlier where people were standing in knee deep water and barely made it 50 feet to get up the side of a hill. Within seconds where they had been standing was ten feet under water.

The speed it rises is always underestimated.

---

We were on the llano when it hit Friday, and it's pretty dang instant. And the llano wasn't on the scale of what happened there. Nor was it at night, nor was it the first event that happened. We were already expecting something pretty crazy

It should be easy to identify vulnerable zones, designate them, and come up with a basic set of practices for detecting a truly threatening flooding situation and then having a standardized alarm system or network for that area with an established basic plan to go to safe locations.


We do it for lightning and tornados all over the nation.

BrazosDog02 said:

---

This is the thread to talk about what ifs, yes?

How about this....don't build your house in the river bed or watershed? When you look at a topo map, you will clearly see boundaries of the flood top. It does not matter if "peepaw hadn't seen a flood like that since 1932. If the evidence is there, it flooded once and it will flood again.

The idea that we need to have state of the art warning systems so we can keep doing dumb things is not the best idea to me. Yes, we need that, but it should be a last resort system abused so we can justify putting structures in unsafe locations.

We need not consider what if's for the situation at hand. The variables that coalesced to the situation yesterday were such that there was no good outcome to be had. They did the best they could with the information available at the time.

To the OP point, you already have flood gauges. Those flood gauges already have wireless communication. My 14 year old could probably write an app to link that data paired with geolocated GIS data to devise a live 'water wall' alert with some pretty basic spatial math.

"The water is 20' high at point A, 15' high at point B, 5' High at point C with a rise rate of X per minute...you live at point D, evacuate immediately."

But, again, even with that information, the TRUE scope of the flood would likely have resulted in minimized effort and loss of life. I just don't think this particular situation ends differently in any case whatsoever short of not having the camp in that spot on 7/4/2025. That simple to me.

---

A) it wasn't "houses" someone built there.

B) millions of kids have used them over the years.

I'm not trying to make light of anything,, but remember when 20 out of every million kids died of COVID? You are basically saying eliminate all structures near rivers forever for that same statistic. No different than those who think kids shouldn't have been at school because of the Covid risk. Summer / river camps will always exist, and should always exist. It's an awesome experience.

ts5641 said:

---

Would people even have the awareness of where they are and to evacuate immediately?

---

If people installed alarms on their own property, yes. The issue I see is that for navigable waterways, property owners don't own land adjacent to the stream bed and may not be permitted to place water level sensors where they would do the most good.

Many school districts use Accuweather's Skyguard warning system, which sends text message alerts to individuals.

Don't know how helpful it would be for floods.

I would think the larger camps at least have something similar to monitor when to move kids away from water activities.

EclipseAg said:

---

Many school districts use Accuweather's Skyguard warning system, which sends text message alerts to individuals.

Don't know how helpful it would be for floods.

I would think the larger camps at least have something similar to monitor when to move kids away from water activities.

---

Sleeping is not a water activity, yet that is where people build cabins for these camps.

The problem with flood warnings is that there are structures within eyesight of each other which face very different levels of risk from high water. At some point, it's up to the folks who put structures in high risk areas to assume the burden of making sure their occupants are safe.

Only asking questions.How long has Camp Mystic been there?
How many flooding episodes have there been since the camp was founded?
How many deaths of children or employees due to these flooding events prior to this last horrific one?

twk said:

---

EclipseAg said:

---

Many school districts use Accuweather's Skyguard warning system, which sends text message alerts to individuals.

Don't know how helpful it would be for floods.

I would think the larger camps at least have something similar to monitor when to move kids away from water activities.

---

Sleeping is not a water activity, yet that is where people build cabins for these camps.

The problem with flood warnings is that there are structures within eyesight of each other which face very different levels of risk from high water. At some point, it's up to the folks who put structures in high risk areas to assume the burden of making sure their occupants are safe.

---

You do realize people build structures in hurricane zones, flood zones, earthquake zones, tornado alley, and wildfire zones right? Another words people have to take risks in life. It sucks but acting like tou can safe proof life is a quick way to destroy the value of living. Risk is ingrained in living.

Just wait till that poster gets wind that Houston is hit with a hurricane or major flood once every 5 years.

Larry S Ross said:

---

Only asking questions.How long has Camp Mystic been there?
How many flooding episodes have there been since the camp was founded?
How many deaths of children or employees due to these flooding events prior to this last horrific one?

---

Camp is at or near 100 years old.

beerad12man said:

---

BrazosDog02 said:

---

This is the thread to talk about what ifs, yes?

How about this....don't build your house in the river bed or watershed? When you look at a topo map, you will clearly see boundaries of the flood top. It does not matter if "peepaw hadn't seen a flood like that since 1932. If the evidence is there, it flooded once and it will flood again.

The idea that we need to have state of the art warning systems so we can keep doing dumb things is not the best idea to me. Yes, we need that, but it should be a last resort system abused so we can justify putting structures in unsafe locations.

We need not consider what if's for the situation at hand. The variables that coalesced to the situation yesterday were such that there was no good outcome to be had. They did the best they could with the information available at the time.

To the OP point, you already have flood gauges. Those flood gauges already have wireless communication. My 14 year old could probably write an app to link that data paired with geolocated GIS data to devise a live 'water wall' alert with some pretty basic spatial math.

"The water is 20' high at point A, 15' high at point B, 5' High at point C with a rise rate of X per minute...you live at point D, evacuate immediately."

But, again, even with that information, the TRUE scope of the flood would likely have resulted in minimized effort and loss of life. I just don't think this particular situation ends differently in any case whatsoever short of not having the camp in that spot on 7/4/2025. That simple to me.

---

A) it wasn't "houses" someone built there.

B) millions of kids have used them over the years.

I'm not trying to make light of anything,, but remember when 20 out of every million kids died of COVID? You are basically saying eliminate all structures near rivers forever for that same statistic. No different than those who think kids shouldn't have been at school because of the Covid risk. Summer / river camps will always exist, and should always exist. It's an awesome experience.

---

I'm not saying you should eliminate the camps or the structures. Just the opposite. My kids are at camp a couple hours north of there right now. I'm saying that if you choose to place them in those locations, you must accept the risk of such a decision.

We have geological evidence staring us in the face that proves water has been well above those structures. This isn't new information. Rain like this has happened before. The problem is that it hasn't happened "over the years", which is but a millisecond in geologic time. It's why humans suck as risk management. They can't fathom that their lifetime is insignificant. To us, 100 years feel like a long time.

Keep everything the way it is, but be aware of the risks, mitigate when possible, and accept the consequences all the decisions.

I think all of this discussion is pointless though. I think its unnecessary to look to "more warning so this doesn't happen again" and focus more on "how are these places ever going to afford to remain open after 50 Million dollars in lawsuits trickle in and insurance and state laws preclude the ability for them to exist at all." The last part is more my concern as a business owner. You know the lawyers are getting excited right now.

You sound fun at parties.

texagbeliever said:

---

twk said:

---

EclipseAg said:

---

Many school districts use Accuweather's Skyguard warning system, which sends text message alerts to individuals.

Don't know how helpful it would be for floods.

I would think the larger camps at least have something similar to monitor when to move kids away from water activities.

---

Sleeping is not a water activity, yet that is where people build cabins for these camps.

The problem with flood warnings is that there are structures within eyesight of each other which face very different levels of risk from high water. At some point, it's up to the folks who put structures in high risk areas to assume the burden of making sure their occupants are safe.

---

You do realize people build structures in hurricane zones, flood zones, earthquake zones, tornado alley, and wildfire zones right? Another words people have to take risks in life. It sucks but acting like tou can safe proof life is a quick way to destroy the value of living. Risk is ingrained in living.

---

Hell, go to Big Island, and pretty much all of Kona is built on a lava path. It's a matter of time before Mauna Loa erupts again.

Username checks out

texagbeliever said:

---

twk said:

---

EclipseAg said:

---

Many school districts use Accuweather's Skyguard warning system, which sends text message alerts to individuals.

Don't know how helpful it would be for floods.

I would think the larger camps at least have something similar to monitor when to move kids away from water activities.

---

Sleeping is not a water activity, yet that is where people build cabins for these camps.

The problem with flood warnings is that there are structures within eyesight of each other which face very different levels of risk from high water. At some point, it's up to the folks who put structures in high risk areas to assume the burden of making sure their occupants are safe.

---

You do realize people build structures in hurricane zones, flood zones, earthquake zones, tornado alley, and wildfire zones right? Another words people have to take risks in life. It sucks but acting like tou can safe proof life is a quick way to destroy the value of living. Risk is ingrained in living.

---

That's not what I'm saying at all. The question was warning systems. My point was that the precise areas in danger from flash flooding are so specific that it's hard to come up with a warning system that won't be a nuisance to the broader population but which would alert everyone who might need to evacuate. Here, the weather service issued appropriate warnings, but most people in the danger zone went to bed not realizing their lives would be in danger. There's a limit to what government can do to overcome that.

Gunny456 said:

---

Great post as usual Brazos. The entire concept is flawed. The "100" year flood plane data that everyone goes by to build is flawed. The data for it goes back basically only 350 years at best….and much of that is speculative imho.
The rivers have been forming these basins, canyons and topography for many, many thousands of years …that we can only speculate how high and how often they really do what we just witnessed in those thousands and thousands of years …..now or 1987 or 1978, whatever year.
This will happen again… bank on it. As long as folks are allowed to build camps, homes, businesses, whatever in the same damn places over and over we are going to have these tragedies over and over.
Somebody…. maybe next year, maybe not for another hundred years is going to go through this nightmare again.
Living on the false hopes that a warning system will somehow prevent this again is foolhardy when you realize in reality how much time it would honestly take to evacuate all those people and kids……and we are inviting a repeat of this again and again.
Until folks quit building things close to rivers this will repeat someday.

---

Keep in mind that rainfall statistics and flood plain maps are updated on a regular basis based on constantly evolving information and improved modelling. As I said on another thread, trying to predict these things is as much art as it is science.

twk said:

---

texagbeliever said:

---

twk said:

---

EclipseAg said:

---

Many school districts use Accuweather's Skyguard warning system, which sends text message alerts to individuals.

Don't know how helpful it would be for floods.

I would think the larger camps at least have something similar to monitor when to move kids away from water activities.

---

Sleeping is not a water activity, yet that is where people build cabins for these camps.

The problem with flood warnings is that there are structures within eyesight of each other which face very different levels of risk from high water. At some point, it's up to the folks who put structures in high risk areas to assume the burden of making sure their occupants are safe.

---

You do realize people build structures in hurricane zones, flood zones, earthquake zones, tornado alley, and wildfire zones right? Another words people have to take risks in life. It sucks but acting like tou can safe proof life is a quick way to destroy the value of living. Risk is ingrained in living.

---

That's not what I'm saying at all. The question was warning systems. My point was that the precise areas in danger from flash flooding are so specific that it's hard to come up with a warning system that won't be a nuisance to the broader population but which would alert everyone who might need to evacuate. Here, the weather service issued appropriate warnings, but most people in the danger zone went to bed not realizing their lives would be in danger. There's a limit to what government can do to overcome that.

---

People are already tone-deaf to Amber Alerts. Flood warnings would probably evolve similarly.

having worked at a river camp on the Blanco, (El Rancho Cima, Cockrell River Camp)

The camps are placed on the river because its the best place to be in the Texas summer

I evacuated the camp twice due to flooding and stayed behind to prep

canceling move in and prepping along the riverside

Even with warning you cant predict what's coming, everything is a guess at best

we moved what could be moved, got docks out of the water

To move everything up the bank what you think is a safe distance only to have it wiped out


There is a reason Sam Houston Council stopped rebuilding

That area, to me, is still one of the most beautiful parts of Texas


I watched the footbridge/suspension bridge all but get wiped out and the dam down river disappear along with the rifle/shotgun, and archery ranges I worked become inundated under a torrent of brown water

predicting these precise 2 forks and the their union downstream affects is likely impossible

They might have planned better and had a evac zone 50 to 100 feet above flood stage, I'm not sure that's possible on their parcel of land

but hell, even here in College Station, no one accurately predicted the purple bands of rain that flooded our area just a few weeks back. That precision is not possible. Predicting trends of 4 inch or more an hour of rainfall is tough.

IslanderAg04 said:

---

texagbeliever said:

---

twk said:

---

EclipseAg said:

---

Many school districts use Accuweather's Skyguard warning system, which sends text message alerts to individuals.

Don't know how helpful it would be for floods.

I would think the larger camps at least have something similar to monitor when to move kids away from water activities.

---

Sleeping is not a water activity, yet that is where people build cabins for these camps.

The problem with flood warnings is that there are structures within eyesight of each other which face very different levels of risk from high water. At some point, it's up to the folks who put structures in high risk areas to assume the burden of making sure their occupants are safe.

---

You do realize people build structures in hurricane zones, flood zones, earthquake zones, tornado alley, and wildfire zones right? Another words people have to take risks in life. It sucks but acting like tou can safe proof life is a quick way to destroy the value of living. Risk is ingrained in living.

---

Hell, go to Big Island, and pretty much all of Kona is built on a lava path. It's a matter of time before Mauna Loa erupts again.

---

Pretty much all of Naples, Italy.

I'm not an engineer but, I've always thought that installing ultrasonic depth sensors above a river at approximately half-mile intervals to continuously monitor water levels wouldn't be a bad idea. These sensors could be programmed to trigger tornado-style sirens if they detect a river level rise exceeding half a foot within a 10-minute period, providing an early warning system for potential flooding.

Looks like it already exists.

I know that I for one, if ever spending the night next to a river, will be paying more attention to weather forecasts for the upstream watershed and scouting out the place to make sure there is an escape route to higher ground and do a little research on past floods in the area and how high the water has been before.

It really does seem that there was not enough caution taken by individuals this weekend with Tropical Storm Barry moving across Mexico and into west/central Texas.

I have a friend whose family owned a house on the Blanco River near Wimberly that got wiped out during the Labor Day floods a few years ago that occurred during the night. He personally was not there at the time, but many of his family members were and they barely got out in time.

In 2015 my brother, while at Philmont Socut Ranch with his son, were camping next to a dry creek bed and during the middle of the night heavy rain upstream caused a flash flood to overwhelm their campsite. He was woken by storm water rushing through their tent and they were barely able to get out and in pitch darkness he and his son were able to take refuge on top of a huge boulder. Luckily the water never got high enough to take them off the boulder. But it was a long, dark miserable night on a boulder wondering if they were going to make it out alive. Everyone in his group survived but another boy in another group was killed during that event.