Kerrville Area Flooding: Food for Thought

19,789 Views | 114 Replies | Last: 11 mo ago by ABATTBQ87
Jugstore Cowboy
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Quote:

That's not what I'm saying at all. The question was warning systems. My point was that the precise areas in danger from flash flooding are so specific that it's hard to come up with a warning system that won't be a nuisance to the broader population but which would alert everyone who might need to evacuate. Here, the weather service issued appropriate warnings, but most people in the danger zone went to bed not realizing their lives would be in danger. There's a limit to what government can do to overcome that.
Yeah, I've gotten flood warnings on my phone before, but they can cover such a broad area that they don't really tell people if they need to evacuate a specific location.

We also have to consider what "evacuation" means during a flash flood. You're not just thinking about water levels at your location, you're thinking about the roads near you and all the low-level crossings you'd have to drive through. There's not always a good option, other than identifying the highest point where you are.
chilimuybueno
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Those roads are so up and down. There are no clear evacuation routes whatsoever. For us, just downstream from Mystic, we would have had to go straight uphill from our house to avoid the flood. Low spots 100 yards toward Hunt and the wall of water coming at us from upstream. Also, having seen many floods there, we thought there is no way the water gets to and above the house. We were wrong.

There is not a lot of time to react to a situation like this. I'd like to have some sort of better warning system, such as sirens. But evacuation path is still problematic in many, many cases. Need to be able to get directly to high ground in moments.

We were very fortunate to survive. The Lord was looking out for us.
Squadron7
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Civilization has and always will bump up against nature. The more civilizational outposts the more this will happen. We can look at this TX valley full of camps and think, this should never happen again. And you can make certain of that only by removing the camps altogether, I guess.

But people still make their own risk assessments...and should be allowed to.

In the scheme of things, here we have a string of childrens camps that are only even active about 60 days out of the whole year.

While at the same time, people build on hurricane-prone coasts, areas along faults in California, floodplains in the mid-west, and even places like Naples, Italy (pop. 1MM) right next to still active Vesuvius, the most famous killer volcano of them all.

infinity ag
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GMaster0
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Dangerous, destructive floods in this area have been happening since 1838. The state of Texas has had DECADES to find safety solutions and it's a failure on our government that this happened. Anyone saying this isn't political is ignorant and obtuse. 21 and counting dead children from something that could have started putting safety measures in place starting in 2002 when 12 died in flooding.

My heart goes out to anyone impacted, especially those that lost family and friends. I can't even imagine the grief in that community right now.
Teslag
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GMaster0 said:

Dangerous, destructive floods in this area have been happening since 1838. The state of Texas has had DECADES to find safety solutions and it's a failure on our government that this happened. Anyone saying this isn't political is ignorant and obtuse. 21 and counting dead children from something that could have started putting safety measures in place starting in 2002 when 12 died in flooding.

My heart goes out to anyone impacted, especially those that lost family and friends. I can't even imagine the grief in that community right now.


Tell me you're not an engineer without telling me you're not an engineer
A. G. Pennypacker
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GMaster0 said:

Dangerous, destructive floods in this area have been happening since 1838. The state of Texas has had DECADES to find safety solutions and it's a failure on our government that this happened. Anyone saying this isn't political is ignorant and obtuse. 21 and counting dead children from something that could have started putting safety measures in place starting in 2002 when 12 died in flooding.

My heart goes out to anyone impacted, especially those that lost family and friends. I can't even imagine the grief in that community right now.
Grief for the community, but also a lot of the people affected were not from the area, but were there in RV's or renting houses along the river and of course the kids summer campers, there for a long 4th of July weekend vacation. If you're not from there you may not truly understand what a flash flood is capable of.

That video in Infinity Ags post above was incredible. Went from barely a trickle to topping the bridge in 35 minutes.
The Collective
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As someone not from that part of the state, I've always found this statement on the Pedernales State Park map interesting:

"WARNING: The water in the river can rise from a placid stream to a raging torrent in a few minutes. If you are in the river area and notice the water rising or getting muddy, leave the river area immediately. Flash flooding is common in the Texas Hill Country. Please be alert to weather conditions."
Aggie Spirit
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"In 2015 my brother, while at Philmont Socut Ranch with his son, were camping next to a dry creek bed and during the middle of the night heavy rain upstream caused a flash flood to overwhelm their campsite. He was woken by storm water rushing through their tent and they were barely able to get out and in pitch darkness he and his son were able to take refuge on top of a huge boulder. Luckily the water never got high enough to take them off the boulder. But it was a long, dark miserable night on a boulder wondering if they were going to make it out alive. Everyone in his group survived but another boy in another group was killed during that event."

I may know your brother. I was a few miles away, but our troops other crew was at this incident. 2015 Philmont Scout Ranch flash flood - Wikipedia
ABATTBQ87
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doubledog said:

lb3 said:

Regardless of big government solutions, people should install their own alarms. While this river rose 10s of feet in less than an hour, it wasn't instant. Even 3 minutes notice would save lives.

We could also quit building in the floodway but who wants to give up their view or river access.
In 1976 the Big Thompson flash flooded (Estes Park CO). I drove up 34 (after the road was reopened). There was total destruction, up to a few hundred feet. The last time I drove 34 was in 2024. People have built homes a few feet from the river. It is not a matter of if the Big Thompson will flash flood, it is a matter of when. In 1976 there was a proposal, for the state to purchase? the land along the Big Thompson canyon. That proposal never made it to the next stage.
I am so glad someone remembers this event! We visited Estes Park in 1975, and I remember the flood of 1976 and it made a huge impact on me and water safety.

I lived in San Marcos from 2004 to 2015 and would travel into Wimberley to take my son to school and sporting events, and every time we crossed the Blanco River on RR12 I would look at that river and wonder why there is no warning system here.

I'd ask city leaders and residents that question, and they said they didn't need a warning system, it would be unattractive, cost too much, it won't happen here, etc.

We all know that in May of 2015, a warning system would have saved many lives.
 
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