falconace said:
TrumpsBarber said:
Home insurers can only raise rates general to all policyholders after getting permission from the state legislature. The rates can then be negotiated (e.g. higher deductible =lower premium}. Auto rates (points) can be increased due to the filing of first party collision claims because it is based on the behavior/experience of insured drivers. Even an uninsured\underinsured claim will result in a rate increase because some actuaries determined that if you are unlucky enough to get hit by an uninsured driver, you have a higher risk of it happening again than the lucky drivers.
Makes no sense. Years ago a guy I worked with had his fence hit by an f1 tornado. The only damage to his property was that his 8 foot cedar fence was blown away. They jacked up his insurance rate the next year. His agent told him it was because since he was unlucky enough to have tornado damage, the underwriters think it's likely to happen again. He argued (unsuccessfully although correctly) that his rates should drop because statistically getting hit twice is much smaller than getting hit once.
That's not how it works.
The risk the insurer is calculating is two sided: frequency and magnitude. How often do storms of any given magnitude occur in an area? The way they calculate that is by looking at the distribution and frequency of storms of different magnitudes to determine the distribution of storms by magnitude, which also helps them estimate the maximum expected strength of a storm to hit a particular area. A tornado probably upsets the assumptions around that distribution and increases the likelihood estimate of not just future tornadoes, but the storms that spawn them. Even if he isn't hit by a second tornado, it likely leads to a substantial increase in the risk assumptions for wind and hail damage because the insurer's models say they can expect more severe storms with a higher frequency in his area than previously estimated.
On top of that, events like tornadoes follow a power law distribution. The more they happen in an area, the more you can expect them to continue to happen. As an example, consider cities A, B, and C. City A has not seen a hurricane in 30 years, city B has seen 1, and city C has seen 5. If I asked you to rank them in order based on which is most likely to see a hurricane in 5 years, you're probably going C, B, A, which really runs counter to your buddy's argument.