Exit polls underestimated the rightward shift of Asian American voters

882 Views | 9 Replies | Last: 5 hrs ago by Stat Monitor Repairman
TheWoodlandsTxAg
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Asian American voters shifted right. The exit polls did not properly capture the size of the shift. ABC News, Washington Post, NBC News exit polls showed them just shifting right by 5-9 points nationally towards Republicans. The shift was actually well into the double digits if you look at the data. The analysis of Asian-majority precincts show shifts of 15-30 pts

Neetu Arnold: "Nationally, 2020 and 2024 exit polls from the Washington Post show a 9-point shift to the Republicans in the presidential race among Asian American voters relative to 2020. In some states, such as Nevada and Texas, the polls suggest that Trump won the Asian American vote outright. The NBC News exit poll found a 5-point shift to the right nationally among Asian Americans relative to 2020. And in their survey of Asian American voters prior to the election, Asian Americans Advancing Justice saw a 7-point shift away from the Democrats relative to 2020. My analysis of precinct-level voting data in four major urban areas shows that the exit polls may actually be understating the degree to which Asian Americans shifted to the right. Using census data, I identified majority-Asian precincts in these areas and compared the Republican margin of victory (or loss) between the 2024 and 2020 elections. The results are much more stark: Majority-Asian precincts in New York City, for instance, saw a rightward shift of 31 percentage points. Precincts in Dallas and Fort Bend counties in Texas both saw rightward shifts between 17 and 20 points. And precincts in Chicago saw a 23-point shift to the right."

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/11/19/heres_why_asian_americans_shifted_right_151965.html







The data even caught Governor Abbott's attention.

TheEternalOptimist
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There was no group of voters Trump did worse with that I can think of.....
SwigAg11
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AG
TheEternalOptimist said:

There was no group of voters Trump did worse with that I can think of.....
I think he did worse with unmarried women?
TheWoodlandsTxAg
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TheEternalOptimist said:

There was no group of voters Trump did worse with that I can think of.....
The Democrats on Reddit are saying that Trump/Republicans did not improve at all with African American voters and Jewish American voters.

The Democrats on Reddit are saying he stayed flat with both of those groups. I would take it with a grain of salt since Reddit is like 99.9999999% Democrat.
TheEternalOptimist
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TheWoodlandsTxAg said:

TheEternalOptimist said:

There was no group of voters Trump did worse with that I can think of.....
The Democrats on Reddit are saying that Trump/Republicans did not improve at all with African American voters and Jewish American voters.

The Democrats on Reddit are saying he stayed flat with both of those groups. I would take it with a grain of salt since Reddit is like 99.9999999% Democrat.
Reddit is so cute. They should merge with BlueSky. Nothing would change!
BadMoonRisin
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AG
Well yeah, since the #StopAsianHate campaign, used by the democrats to gin up anti white hate, backfired when it was obviously black people committing all of the hate crimes.

They aren't stupid, like white liberals.
e=mc2
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AG
Just like real men and Hispanics, ordinary people are tired of the freak show party.
InfantryAg
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AG
You all have the wrong narrative...

Asians didn't vote for a half-Asian female because they're racist and misogynist.
digging tunnels
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AG
I don't understand how there are Asians, particularly Chinese and Vietnamese descent, can vote left. Their families leave commie countries but still vote left. As a 1st generation Vietnamese-American, it makes no sense to me at all.
Stat Monitor Repairman
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SwigAg11 said:

TheEternalOptimist said:

There was no group of voters Trump did worse with that I can think of.....
I think he did worse with unmarried women?
So unmarried women did the polar opposite of what all other groups thought was the right thing to do?

Can see how that checks out.
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