Exit polls underestimated the rightward shift of Asian American voters

2,640 Views | 32 Replies | Last: 10 days ago by BigRobSA
TheWoodlandsTxAg
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7:39p, 11/20/24
Asian American voters shifted right. The exit polls did not properly capture the size of the shift. ABC News, Washington Post, NBC News exit polls showed them just shifting right by 5-9 points nationally towards Republicans. The shift was actually well into the double digits if you look at the data. The analysis of Asian-majority precincts show shifts of 15-30 pts

Neetu Arnold: "Nationally, 2020 and 2024 exit polls from the Washington Post show a 9-point shift to the Republicans in the presidential race among Asian American voters relative to 2020. In some states, such as Nevada and Texas, the polls suggest that Trump won the Asian American vote outright. The NBC News exit poll found a 5-point shift to the right nationally among Asian Americans relative to 2020. And in their survey of Asian American voters prior to the election, Asian Americans Advancing Justice saw a 7-point shift away from the Democrats relative to 2020. My analysis of precinct-level voting data in four major urban areas shows that the exit polls may actually be understating the degree to which Asian Americans shifted to the right. Using census data, I identified majority-Asian precincts in these areas and compared the Republican margin of victory (or loss) between the 2024 and 2020 elections. The results are much more stark: Majority-Asian precincts in New York City, for instance, saw a rightward shift of 31 percentage points. Precincts in Dallas and Fort Bend counties in Texas both saw rightward shifts between 17 and 20 points. And precincts in Chicago saw a 23-point shift to the right."

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/11/19/heres_why_asian_americans_shifted_right_151965.html







The data even caught Governor Abbott's attention.

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TheEternalOptimist
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7:41p, 11/20/24
There was no group of voters Trump did worse with that I can think of.....
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SwigAg11
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In reply to TheEternalOptimist • 7:57p, 11/20/24
AG
TheEternalOptimist said:
There was no group of voters Trump did worse with that I can think of.....
I think he did worse with unmarried women?
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TheWoodlandsTxAg
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In reply to TheEternalOptimist • 7:58p, 11/20/24
TheEternalOptimist said:
There was no group of voters Trump did worse with that I can think of.....
The Democrats on Reddit are saying that Trump/Republicans did not improve at all with African American voters and Jewish American voters.

The Democrats on Reddit are saying he stayed flat with both of those groups. I would take it with a grain of salt since Reddit is like 99.9999999% Democrat.
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TheEternalOptimist
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In reply to TheWoodlandsTxAg • 8:15p, 11/20/24
TheWoodlandsTxAg said:
TheEternalOptimist said:
There was no group of voters Trump did worse with that I can think of.....
The Democrats on Reddit are saying that Trump/Republicans did not improve at all with African American voters and Jewish American voters.

The Democrats on Reddit are saying he stayed flat with both of those groups. I would take it with a grain of salt since Reddit is like 99.9999999% Democrat.
Reddit is so cute. They should merge with BlueSky. Nothing would change!
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BadMoonRisin
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8:17p, 11/20/24
AG
Well yeah, since the #StopAsianHate campaign, used by the democrats to gin up anti white hate, backfired when it was obviously black people committing all of the hate crimes.

They aren't stupid, like white liberals.
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e=mc2
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8:18p, 11/20/24
AG
Just like real men and Hispanics, ordinary people are tired of the freak show party.
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InfantryAg
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11:28p, 11/20/24
AG
You all have the wrong narrative...

Asians didn't vote for a half-Asian female because they're racist and misogynist.
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digging tunnels
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11:46p, 11/20/24
AG
I don't understand how there are Asians, particularly Chinese and Vietnamese descent, can vote left. Their families leave commie countries but still vote left. As a 1st generation Vietnamese-American, it makes no sense to me at all.
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Stat Monitor Repairman
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 11:53p, 11/20/24
SwigAg11 said:
TheEternalOptimist said:
There was no group of voters Trump did worse with that I can think of.....
I think he did worse with unmarried women?
So unmarried women did the polar opposite of what all other groups thought was the right thing to do?

Can see how that checks out.
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ts5641
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In reply to TheWoodlandsTxAg • 7:30a, 11/21/24
The dems have assumed anyone with non white skin belongs to them. This could be part of a great shift if the GOP doesn't blow it the next 2-4 years. We need to get things done and get results. Show our side makes life better than the misery many have experienced the last 4 years.
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Maroon Dawn
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7:36a, 11/21/24
AG
Dems have always relied on fabricated fear of straight white Christian men to prop up their coalition of groups who all hate each other and have conflicting and competing political goals.

Without the white boogeyman, groups like Asians and Hispanics say "wait a minute. I'm a socially conservative middle class small business owner. I hate open borders and I'm not afraid of white men, my daughter is married to one. What the hell do Dems have to offer me? Nothing."
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texagbeliever
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8:06a, 11/21/24
Nice to see Asians realizing that being treated like a white man is not so awesome after all.
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doubledog
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8:12a, 11/21/24
Black on Asian "hate crimes" increased dramatically under Biden's administration. That cannot go unnoticed at the polls.
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doubledog
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In reply to digging tunnels • 8:16a, 11/21/24
digging tunnels said:
I don't understand how there are Asians, particularly Chinese and Vietnamese descent, can vote left. Their families leave commie countries but still vote left. As a 1st generation Vietnamese-American, it makes no sense to me at all.
Asia also includes Indians, Indonesians etc... For an example, these groups favor the socialized medicine, they found in their native countries and would like to see some form of that system in the U.S.
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hsjnlssmith89
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8:20a, 11/21/24
AG
Exit polls overestimated the number of fake absentee/mail-in ballots that would make it into the counts!!!!
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AlexNguyen
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In reply to digging tunnels • 8:43a, 11/21/24
digging tunnels said:
I don't understand how there are Asians, particularly Chinese and Vietnamese descent, can vote left. Their families leave commie countries but still vote left. As a 1st generation Vietnamese-American, it makes no sense to me at all.


This Asian-American voted straight party Republican in Williamson County this year. I have had enough of Democratic corruption, misrule, and misuse of taxpayer money. The gaslighting about how all those things weren't happening made my decision even easier.
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TheWoodlandsTxAg
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In reply to AlexNguyen • 1:20p, 11/21/24
AlexNguyen said:
digging tunnels said:
I don't understand how there are Asians, particularly Chinese and Vietnamese descent, can vote left. Their families leave commie countries but still vote left. As a 1st generation Vietnamese-American, it makes no sense to me at all.


This Asian-American voted straight party Republican in Williamson County this year. I have had enough of Democratic corruption, misrule, and misuse of taxpayer money. The gaslighting about how all those things weren't happening made my decision even easier.




According to Real Clear Politics, the 2024 Election was the Anti-Inflation and Anti-Crime Election for Asian Americans. Huge shift to Republicans. While the group as a whole still votes majority Democrat nationwide, just like Latino Americans there was a huge shift towards Republicans in 2024 for Asian Americans.
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BCG Disciple
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1:24p, 11/21/24
AG
For the sake of clarity going forward, can we not call them AAs?
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BCG Disciple
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1:27p, 11/21/24
AG
Also, that's a lot of words to explain away the real reason. Racism with a dash of misogyny.
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Urban Ag
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In reply to TheWoodlandsTxAg • 1:27p, 11/21/24
AG
In terms of just numbers of new voters, the shifts in this election are certainly a good thing for the GOP, huge actually. But I still think that just as important is what this does to the dem party moving forward.

They have court votes they haven't thought about having to court in decades, 1950's at least. They have to moderate their insane positions or they'll lose even worse next time. But most of all, they have to spend money on all these demographics, large and small, they 100% believed they still held on the plantation.
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TheWoodlandsTxAg
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In reply to Urban Ag • 2:26p, 11/21/24
Yes Ruy Teixeira and his famous book The Emerging Democratic Majority were 100 percent wrong.

Teixeira should rewrite it and call it the Emerging Republican Majority.
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ABATTBQ11
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2:38p, 11/21/24
AG
Read the full article. Who would have thought that calling a group privileged while simultaneously ignoring crime against them would continue them to vote for someone else?
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Iraq2xVeteran
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2:57p, 11/21/24
AG
Neetu Arnold articulated how the economy, public safety, and 'wrong side of brown,' have caused Asian Americans to shift right. I am Asian, and I have voted always voted for Republicans.
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akm91
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3:43p, 11/21/24
AG
I immigrated to the US in the late 70's from Taiwan and have never ever voted Democrat in my life.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
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deddog
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4:49p, 11/21/24
AG
Asian American - swung right massively.
Muslim americans, at least in Michigan, turned away from Democrats.

I'm really curious where the rest of the Asians landed. (India, Pak, Bangladesh etc.)
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TheWoodlandsTxAg
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In reply to deddog • 2:57p, 11/22/24
deddog said:
Asian American - swung right massively.
Muslim americans, at least in Michigan, turned away from Democrats.

I'm really curious where the rest of the Asians landed. (India, Pak, Bangladesh etc.)
This tweet that Governor Abbott referenced shows charts of Dallas County and Fort Bend County. Large Indian, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi populations in both areas. Both had moderate to big shifts to Republicans by Indian, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi populations.

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Brunner88
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4:01p, 11/22/24
I have had enough of Democratic corruption and misuse of taxpayer money.
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EX TEXASEX
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In reply to Brunner88 • 4:08p, 11/22/24
Brunner88 said:
I have had enough of Democratic corruption and misuse of taxpayer money.
Also, if you are Asian. They never pass up a chance to discriminate against your kids in university admissons or admisson to magnet schools or memory hole black on Asian violence !!! Welcome to the Dark side
#FJB
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RAB87
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11:06p, 11/22/24
AG
Shocked that Hispanics and Asians don't like record price inflation, unaffordable mortgages, spiraling violent crime, rampant homelessness, mass murder of unborn infants, sexual perversion of children, borders open to cartel human and drug trafficking, weaponization of our legal system, massive health crisis, and global wars.
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BonfireNerd04
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4:13a, 11/23/24
Asians, as a high-education and low-crime demographic, are honorary White people now.
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BigRobSA
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In reply to digging tunnels • 6:17a, 11/23/24
digging tunnels said:
I don't understand how there are Asians, particularly Chinese and Vietnamese descent, can vote left. Their families leave commie countries but still vote left. As a 1st generation Vietnamese-American, it makes no sense to me at all.


Username checks out.
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BigRobSA
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In reply to akm91 • 6:20a, 11/23/24
akm91 said:
I immigrated to the US in the late 70's from Taiwan and have never ever voted Democrat in my life.


Then, you ain't even black! - DementiaJoe
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