Remember Florida is reporting in near real time from most all counties. So this data should be from all counties as of their most recent update. I'd wait until noon today to be sure of the trends we are seeing from Florida but right now things look very good.

From the article concerning Florida:

Quote:

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So to summarize:

* Election Day Advantage Trump ~20%: Amazing
* Election Day Advantage Trump ~15%: Close
* Election Day Advantage Trump 10% or less: Trouble

This metric will be volatile for the first hour or so but we should start having a good idea of where it's heading at 8 AM ET. So very early!

It should go without saying that this is a very broad guideline - projecting Florida's turnout performance onto other states is of limited use. There will be people who leak numbers, and I will be re-posting whatever useful turnout numbers I can find on X.

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ETA: Trump up by 22.93% at 8:00 AM.

Let's do this!

ac04 said:

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really trying to have faith in our country to not **** this up today.

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Same. Democrats are so unethical that it is difficult to believe results.

ac04 said:

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really trying to have faith in our country to not **** this up today.

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Well, if the post right above yours is any indication…….

Fraud or general incompetence? I would give fraud the edge.

Ready for all the red alert emojis and stop the steal grifters on X to tell us about every single hiccup in the voting process as if it had never ever happened in the past!

And "somehow" Trump will still win.

CNN interviewed a Puerto Rican woman voting for the first time in Florida. She voted for Trump, so they questioned how she was ok with the MSG rally. They then had some woman come on and say Harris has the momentum because of the "MSG hate rally" and the women vote. Can't make this up.

They had a correspondent in Virginia who admitted she talked to mostly Harris voters. One couple, WHILE HOLDING THEIR YOUNG DAUGHTERS, said they voted for Harris because they have young kids and their number 1 issue is abortion.

First Official Guam Results:

🔵 Harris 50% (+5)
🔴 Trump 45%

2020 Results:
🔵 Biden 55% (+14)
🔴 Trump 41%

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) November 5, 2024

IN

P.U.T.U said:

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gigemJTH12 said:

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Prepare for heartbreak. F these people

BREAKING - Polling stations across Pennsylvania are experiencing MASSIVE issues with voting machines.

Numerous reports indicate that the machines are failing to scan ballots, with poll workers stating that the ballots will be “scanned in later. pic.twitter.com/rJsy692Eut

— Right Angle News Network (@Rightanglenews) November 5, 2024

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On X I saw there are at least 18 polling places having issues with their machines right now and several could take hours to resolve. Almost all being in rural counties. No this is not on purpose at all.

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Odd how this is all happening in rural, deep red counties, yet machines in Philly and Pittsburgh seem to be working fine.

My hope for Trump Electoral Votes!

4stringAg said:

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FTAG 2000 said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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gigemJTH12 said:

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Prepare for heartbreak. F these people

BREAKING - Polling stations across Pennsylvania are experiencing MASSIVE issues with voting machines.

Numerous reports indicate that the machines are failing to scan ballots, with poll workers stating that the ballots will be “scanned in later. pic.twitter.com/rJsy692Eut

— Right Angle News Network (@Rightanglenews) November 5, 2024

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On X I saw there are at least 18 polling places having issues with their machines right now and several could take hours to resolve. Almost all being in rural counties. No this is not on purpose at all.

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Odd how this is all happening in rural, deep red counties, yet machines in Philly and Pittsburgh seem to be working fine.

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If I'm voting there I don't hand in my ballot until the scanner or whatever is fixed. None of this scan later bull*****

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Agreed.

I hope they are getting out the word. Odds are any ballots handed in to be scanned later end up in the trash.

IN

(Taking today and tomorrow off for this occurrence)

nortex97 said:

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Some tea leave reading data/resources for those who want to track this am/today:

Quote:

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There are three known states that will be giving out turnout updates.

1. Florida will post continuous live updates on turnout.
2. Georgia will post hourly updates in theory.
3. Nevada will post turnout data at 10 AM and 2 PM.

Of all these three states, Florida will be the one to watch when polls open at 7 AM ET. That's less than seven hours away as of writing! And you can watch it right at joeisdone.github.io/florida/ . Toggle the "Election Day votes only" option.

While Florida is not a competitive state, Florida *will* give valuable insights as to whether Election Day portends to red voter behavior or not.

My instincts say that a comfortable win would be in sight would be if the Advantage Trump - when the "Election Day votes only" option is toggled - is around 20% (screenshot from 2020 attached). On the other hand, if it's closer to 15%, a victory might be possible but iffy. If it is below the current posted advantage of 9.45%, then Republicans are in trouble.

So to summarize:

* Election Day Advantage Trump ~20%: Amazing
* Election Day Advantage Trump ~15%: Close
* Election Day Advantage Trump 10% or less: Trouble

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🇺🇸 Guide to Data-Watching Tomorrow 📊

The MSM will do their usual psy-ops of claiming that Election Day is rainbows and sunshine for Democrats, but I am giving you a guideline as to the concrete numbers to watch.

The consensus of EV X is that Trump has roughly tied the early… pic.twitter.com/XtqEZ2kvuK

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) November 5, 2024

A Surprise for you All:

As you may (or may not) have seen before, I made up some maps and a reference sheet with bell weathers for different states for you to all follow along with Tuesday night as results are coming in.

Well some followers had an idea and there is now an… https://t.co/sRiRg43qFp

— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) November 4, 2024

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Can anyone explain why Election Day 10% advantage or less for Trump in Florida is troublesome for him? I thought Republicans already had a 12% advantage in early voting in Florida? https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-florida/

And so it begins……..

P.U.T.U said:

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gigemJTH12 said:

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Prepare for heartbreak. F these people

BREAKING - Polling stations across Pennsylvania are experiencing MASSIVE issues with voting machines.

Numerous reports indicate that the machines are failing to scan ballots, with poll workers stating that the ballots will be “scanned in later. pic.twitter.com/rJsy692Eut

— Right Angle News Network (@Rightanglenews) November 5, 2024

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On X I saw there are at least 18 polling places having issues with their machines right now and several could take hours to resolve. Almost all being in rural counties. No this is not on purpose at all.

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So all of these rural, presumably Republican controlled counties, are all working with the Democrats to rig the election?

If the Democrats are cheating, it is in the big cities, especially Philly because that way the fraud gets lost in the noise of the usually heavily Democrat returns.

Quote:

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Can anyone explain why Election Day 10% advantage or less for Trump in Florida is troublesome for him? I thought Republicans already had a 12% advantage in early voting in Florida? https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-florida/

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It's using Florida's win margin as a proxy. Trump has won Florida no doubt. Read the full tweet and he explains it. Duval county FL is also another one where if Trump wins that it correlates with the statewide GA results very well traditionally.

They are talking about JUST Election day voting. He is currently up 22.91%, but that doesn't include NPA which in 2020 broke for Biden by D+1.5.

Watching…New Hampshire. If they call this Trump when polls close, gonna be a long night for Dems.

Rapier108 said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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gigemJTH12 said:

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Prepare for heartbreak. F these people

BREAKING - Polling stations across Pennsylvania are experiencing MASSIVE issues with voting machines.

Numerous reports indicate that the machines are failing to scan ballots, with poll workers stating that the ballots will be “scanned in later. pic.twitter.com/rJsy692Eut

— Right Angle News Network (@Rightanglenews) November 5, 2024

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On X I saw there are at least 18 polling places having issues with their machines right now and several could take hours to resolve. Almost all being in rural counties. No this is not on purpose at all.

---

So all of these rural, presumably Republican controlled counties, are all working with the Democrats to rig the election?

If the Democrats are cheating, it is in the big cities, especially Philly because that way the fraud gets lost in the noise of the usually heavily Democrat returns.

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I don't think local officials are conspiring.

At the end of the day, they get their machines from the Secretary of State's office (Dem).

They test the machines ahead of election day, they passed testing, were ready to go, then today? Machines not working, ballot readers not working.

Almost like you programmed something to look at the date on the machine to not work.

We aren't talking about a NASA control room computer. These are supposed to be simple computers with only one program on them to do one thing.

Wasn't as bad when I went in. No masks and the guy who we saw posting it didn't even know what it said. Just government bull**** they were required to hang. I do like the paper printed ballots that they scanned - these should be required everywhere

Also watching…did Rs simply cannibalise their Election Day votes and just bank them during early voting or will Election Day turnout be similar strong showing.

Just Election day votes, but Miami-Dade is STILL RED. R+2.

Rapier108 said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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gigemJTH12 said:

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Prepare for heartbreak. F these people

BREAKING - Polling stations across Pennsylvania are experiencing MASSIVE issues with voting machines.

Numerous reports indicate that the machines are failing to scan ballots, with poll workers stating that the ballots will be “scanned in later. pic.twitter.com/rJsy692Eut

— Right Angle News Network (@Rightanglenews) November 5, 2024

---

On X I saw there are at least 18 polling places having issues with their machines right now and several could take hours to resolve. Almost all being in rural counties. No this is not on purpose at all.

---

So all of these rural, presumably Republican controlled counties, are all working with the Democrats to rig the election?

If the Democrats are cheating, it is in the big cities, especially Philly because that way the fraud gets lost in the noise of the usually heavily Democrat returns.

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Who is in charge of maintaining election machines and sending correct ballots to election sites? It is not those small rural counties doing all that.

rgag12 said:

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Ready for all the red alert emojis and stop the steal grifters on X to tell us about every single hiccup in the voting process as if it had never ever happened in the past!

And "somehow" Trump will still win.

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Some of us aren't happy with installed candidates and you shouldn't be either. They even installed your candidate this time. Cancelled 15 million peoples voices that nominated Biden as the candidate. Why even have elections?

nortex97 said:

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Quote:

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Can anyone explain why Election Day 10% advantage or less for Trump in Florida is troublesome for him? I thought Republicans already had a 12% advantage in early voting in Florida? https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-florida/

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It's using Florida's win margin as a proxy. Trump has won Florida no doubt. Read the full tweet and he explains it. Duval county FL is also another one where if Trump wins that it correlates with the statewide GA results very well traditionally.

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I get that Florida is not in doubt and is being used as an early estimate what may happen in other states.

But in 2020 Democrats had about a 100k advantage in Florida in total votes (early + election days) when looking at party registration, yet Trump won Florida by about 400k.

In 2024, Republicans have a 800k advantage in early voting. Why would they need 10%+ plus on Election Day to be a positive indicator for Trump in other states? It seems if he just holds ground on Election Day in Florida, he blows 2020 out of the water.

will25u said:

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Just Election day votes, but Miami-Dade is STILL RED. R+2.

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Can you post a link to follow FL results live? I haven't been able to find it on the SoS page...

Gigemags382 said:

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nortex97 said:

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Quote:

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Can anyone explain why Election Day 10% advantage or less for Trump in Florida is troublesome for him? I thought Republicans already had a 12% advantage in early voting in Florida? https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-florida/

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It's using Florida's win margin as a proxy. Trump has won Florida no doubt. Read the full tweet and he explains it. Duval county FL is also another one where if Trump wins that it correlates with the statewide GA results very well traditionally.

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I get that Florida is not in doubt and is being used as an early estimate what may happen in other states.

But in 2020 Democrats had about a 100k advantage in Florida in total votes (early + election days) when looking at party registration, yet Trump won Florida by about 400k.

In 2024, Republicans have a 800k advantage in early voting. Why would they need 10%+ plus on Election Day to be a positive indicator for Trump in other states? It seems if he just holds ground on Election Day in Florida, he blows 2020 out of the water.

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It's being used not as an indicator of overall Republican support, but as a proxy for if republican voting behavior shifted. If it came in at 10, it would indicate that the early votes everywhere were cannibalized from election day.