Sure it could. The good part he has it as a coin flip and given what the NYT said the polls underestimate Trump support.

In

Nervous. But, in.

What happened to republicans cannibalising votes theory?

Some tea leave reading data/resources for those who want to track this am/today:

Quote:

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There are three known states that will be giving out turnout updates.

1. Florida will post continuous live updates on turnout.
2. Georgia will post hourly updates in theory.
3. Nevada will post turnout data at 10 AM and 2 PM.

Of all these three states, Florida will be the one to watch when polls open at 7 AM ET. That's less than seven hours away as of writing! And you can watch it right at joeisdone.github.io/florida/ . Toggle the "Election Day votes only" option.

While Florida is not a competitive state, Florida *will* give valuable insights as to whether Election Day portends to red voter behavior or not.

My instincts say that a comfortable win would be in sight would be if the Advantage Trump - when the "Election Day votes only" option is toggled - is around 20% (screenshot from 2020 attached). On the other hand, if it's closer to 15%, a victory might be possible but iffy. If it is below the current posted advantage of 9.45%, then Republicans are in trouble.

So to summarize:

* Election Day Advantage Trump ~20%: Amazing
* Election Day Advantage Trump ~15%: Close
* Election Day Advantage Trump 10% or less: Trouble

---

🇺🇸 Guide to Data-Watching Tomorrow 📊

The MSM will do their usual psy-ops of claiming that Election Day is rainbows and sunshine for Democrats, but I am giving you a guideline as to the concrete numbers to watch.

The consensus of EV X is that Trump has roughly tied the early… pic.twitter.com/XtqEZ2kvuK

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) November 5, 2024

A Surprise for you All:

As you may (or may not) have seen before, I made up some maps and a reference sheet with bell weathers for different states for you to all follow along with Tuesday night as results are coming in.

Well some followers had an idea and there is now an… https://t.co/sRiRg43qFp

— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) November 4, 2024

billydean05 said:

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What happened to republicans cannibalising votes theory?

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I think FL will show us early on whether or not that is/was a real concern…

So far, it's looks like it probably wasn't…

My little precinct in red Harrison county has nothing but dem signs up and a notice that masks are strongly encouraged. Now I'm worried about the voting machines

Happening now in Martinsburg, PA. It’s 7:06, and the election official came outside and said this voting area has the wrong tabulators and the wrong ballots for this location. @elonmusk @DonaldJTrumpJr pic.twitter.com/nV3DqWHYpl

— Shane Ⓜ️ (@VinegarStroke66) November 5, 2024

I'm not saying I don't believe that happened, I'm curious if they named the correct location. Martinsburg, Pennsylvania is a town of only about 1800 people in the middle of nowhere. I don't see them having a building that big and nice in town. But maybe I'm wrong.

In.

AtticusMatlock said:

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I'm not saying I don't believe that happened, I'm curious if they named the correct location. Martinsburg, Pennsylvania is a town of only about 1800 people in the middle of nowhere. I don't see them having a building that big and nice in town. But maybe I'm wrong.

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Elementary school?

https://maps.app.goo.gl/xX2WiukHs49horzu6?g_st=ic

And another reminder to not believe everything you read on X about things that are happening, positively or negatively.

A ton of people are going to post about how great the turnout is for their preferred candidate regardless of what the facts are.

Some people are going to post completely ridiculous things just to get a rise out of people.

Looks like it fits. And have confirmed that is a polling location.

nortex97 said:

---

A Surprise for you All:

As you may (or may not) have seen before, I made up some maps and a reference sheet with bell weathers for different states for you to all follow along with Tuesday night as results are coming in.

Well some followers had an idea and there is now an… https://t.co/sRiRg43qFp

— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) November 4, 2024

---

Hey! That is what I have been working with CAETNerd on! Although I did all the heavy lifting. LOL. He just gave me his predictions. Me and him will be updating that throughout the day/evening.

VOTE VOTE VOTE!

FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT!

Voted this morning when the polls opened. Trump and Cruz for the win!

That is like every oil town in east Texas now, super nice and huge government and school buildings.

I did early voting in Connecticut last week. Nice gesture, but my vote probably won't affect the outcome there.

I'm here for the fireworks though.

Seriously? That's awesome. He's been excellent this cycle, no idea who he is.

Some fun early morning sads at very fake news CNN:

"The math doesn't work. The Democrats are down 1.7 million early votes in the battleground states in urban areas."

"They are down 1.4 million votes in the battleground states among women voters."

"Rural voters have overperformed early by 300,000."

"Democrats have to win their… pic.twitter.com/zarBQ7RY7o

— Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) November 5, 2024

Scared ****less it's going to get away from us again and there'll be no recovery this time.

Looks on the other CNN faces looked like he farted right before that cut. They did not like what he said at all

300,000 votes already in FL this morning. R+23! Net R+70,000+

AgDad121619 said:

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My little precinct in red Harrison county has nothing but dem signs up and a notice that masks are strongly encouraged. Now I'm worried about the voting machines

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Masks? lol that's a sure sign of indoctrination.

will25u said:

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300,000 votes already in FL this morning. R+23! Net R+70,000+

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Seems fantastic in the surface, but without looking at it at a county level, does it really tell us much? If it's all rural counties that have reported numbers so far?

gigemJTH12 said:

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Happening now in Martinsburg, PA. It’s 7:06, and the election official came outside and said this voting area has the wrong tabulators and the wrong ballots for this location. @elonmusk @DonaldJTrumpJr pic.twitter.com/nV3DqWHYpl

— Shane Ⓜ️ (@VinegarStroke66) November 5, 2024

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Of course it does...

AgDad121619 said:

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My little precinct in red Harrison county has nothing but dem signs up and a notice that masks are strongly encouraged. Now I'm worried about the voting machines

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Out of all the insanity in our world nothing to me tops signs and people encouraging masks still and how so many still find that normal. It should be embarrassing to put up such a sign not understanding it's basically advertising you're a bunch of morons.

Had a mid 20's looking healthy running around Amazon driver I saw yesterday in a mask. You're literally outside in fresh air I a job you don't really interact with other people…and your masked up. This country needs Trump.

ts5641 said:

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Scared ****less it's going to get away from us again and there'll be no recovery this time.

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Yep. This election defines the course of Americas future. There's no "we'll get 'em in 28" if Trump doesn't win.

It's so sad to tune into CNN's election day coverage every couple of years and see how far they've fallen and continue to fall.

Here are the headlines across the bottom they've rolled with this morning:

"Trump still pushing election fraud lies as voters head to polls"

followed immediately by:

"Harris sticks to message of unity, optimism in final pitch to voters"

Wish there was a network that just reported facts without the need to editorialize everything. But that doesn't get eyeballs, I guess.

Only 90 minutes in but the trends look great:

#FL #ElectionDay Update 0830 Only 90 minutes of voting. So far, the trendline is tracking the E-day 2020 very well, suggesting against any surge of E-day Dem voters. We can be more confident in a couple of hours. pic.twitter.com/6ZoJ00oRC7

— au ng (@athein1) November 5, 2024

Official "red wave" incoming.