Tom Fox said:

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Joes said:

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Tom Fox said:

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Joes said:

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Tom Fox said:

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Joes said:

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Tom Fox said:

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Whether Trump is a good candidate or not is uninteresting. The interesting question is why would anyone vote for Kamala, much less half of Americans?

Insert Ryan Reynolds but why gif.

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Just about half the country is going to vote against the other party regardless of who the candidates are. I can't believe this is still surprising to people. Minor 1-2% variations in circumstances are what will decide national elections. Joy Behar would get at least 48%. Bugs Bunny would get at least 48%. Joseph Stalin would get at least 48%. Beyonc would get at least 48%. A random plastic cup on the side of the road would get at least 48%. Because it's NOT the other party.

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I'll repeat, but why? What is the other side voting for?

Because depending on the answer, who we run doesn't matter because if it would appeal to them it wouldn't be good for us. Then it is just getting your voters to vote.

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I think you answered your own question. It's a team sport and that's all there is to it. And each side hopes more of their side shows up to vote than the other. I don't think there's ever much persuasion or convincing going on. The other side hates Trump and all republicans with a passion. Their candidate doesn't matter much. And our side is usually the same. Aggies would rather cheer for a 0-12 Aggie team than a 12-0 Texas team, that's exactly how people are with politics, only more so.

Your own side's flaws become irrelevant when the other side is the devil. And that's how both sides see each other now. I could laugh at the idea that someone would vote for Kamala instead of Trump but at the same time I know that I would honestly vote for a used Kleenex before I voted for her. And so would 99% of the people here. The only thing a "good" candidate does is possibly bring out the additional 1-2% that pushes you over the edge to win. 96% of all voters are locked in regardless.

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That doesn't answer my question. I vote for Republicans for lower taxes, smaller government, 2A rights, individual freedoms, and pro small business.

What are they voting for? If it is socialism, then the candidate we nominate doesn't matter.

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I'm not a leftist so ask them.

But it seems obvious they're voting for more government, no borders, higher taxes, more abortion, and a society that rewards identity instead of merit.

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Then no candidate that will be good for them will be ok with us. It's all turning out your voters.

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RONA Ag said:

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JohnnyAlamo said:

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Lifelong Republican but I just can't vote for Trump after the voter fraud debacle and J6. I want honest elections in this country, but I need to see evidence of the fraud that supposedly took place. It's been 4 years and nothing but unproved theories and rumors. I have serious concerns Trump would try to remain in office for a 3rd term based on his past behavior.

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This, I will not vote for Harris but I refuse to vote for Trump. If evidence was actually produced I would absolutely fall in line but I refuse to vote for someone that baselessly attacked our democracy

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Artorias said:

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For the majority of population, voting is a popularity contest. With the media painting Trump as Hitler, and Kamala as the best thing since sliced bread, there should be no surprise here.

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RONA Ag said:

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JohnnyAlamo said:

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Lifelong Republican but I just can't vote for Trump after the voter fraud debacle and J6. I want honest elections in this country, but I need to see evidence of the fraud that supposedly took place. It's been 4 years and nothing but unproved theories and rumors. I have serious concerns Trump would try to remain in office for a 3rd term based on his past behavior.

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This, I will not vote for Harris but I refuse to vote for Trump. If evidence was actually produced I would absolutely fall in line but I refuse to vote for someone that baselessly attacked our democracy

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RONA Ag said:

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JohnnyAlamo said:

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Lifelong Republican but I just can't vote for Trump after the voter fraud debacle and J6. I want honest elections in this country, but I need to see evidence of the fraud that supposedly took place. It's been 4 years and nothing but unproved theories and rumors. I have serious concerns Trump would try to remain in office for a 3rd term based on his past behavior.

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This, I will not vote for Harris but I refuse to vote for Trump. If evidence was actually produced I would absolutely fall in line but I refuse to vote for someone that baselessly attacked our democracy

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Junction71 said:

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I don't know who said it but still true--"the greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5-minute conversation with the average voter"!

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GAC06 said:

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Quote:

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Yet the political reality is that he has a ceiling of support that is below 50% because so many Americans dislike him.

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Needs to be said again, but his base would rather cry about "feels" rather than open their eyes to the political reality.

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Wabs said:

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JohnnyAlamo said:

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Lifelong Republican but I just can't vote for Trump after the voter fraud debacle and J6. I want honest elections in this country, but I need to see evidence of the fraud that supposedly took place. It's been 4 years and nothing but unproved theories and rumors. I have serious concerns Trump would try to remain in office for a 3rd term based on his past behavior.

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So your answer is to vote for an all out socialist system? You do know that you're allowed to use your own brain and decide for yourself whether the election was stolen or not. At the very minimum (and proven by FACT), government agencies conspired with social media to suppress a story that would have 100% changed the outcome of the election. That may not be the "fraud" proof you seek, but it does mean the election was not fair.

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Geminiv said:

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Wabs said:

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JohnnyAlamo said:

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Lifelong Republican but I just can't vote for Trump after the voter fraud debacle and J6. I want honest elections in this country, but I need to see evidence of the fraud that supposedly took place. It's been 4 years and nothing but unproved theories and rumors. I have serious concerns Trump would try to remain in office for a 3rd term based on his past behavior.

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So your answer is to vote for an all out socialist system? You do know that you're allowed to use your own brain and decide for yourself whether the election was stolen or not. At the very minimum (and proven by FACT), government agencies conspired with social media to suppress a story that would have 100% changed the outcome of the election. That may not be the "fraud" proof you seek, but it does mean the election was not fair.

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They've been known to actually concede and leave office. Even if/when elected it's 4 years perhaps some federal and Supreme Court justices. If they do such a bad job then they'll be voted out and replaced with Republicans. So you would perhaps be better off in the long term.
The election wasn't fair because people consume what's put in front of them and don't do their own research? That's literally the describing a huge percentage of the Trump vote so that's about even.

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RONA Ag said:

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JohnnyAlamo said:

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Lifelong Republican but I just can't vote for Trump after the voter fraud debacle and J6. I want honest elections in this country, but I need to see evidence of the fraud that supposedly took place. It's been 4 years and nothing but unproved theories and rumors. I have serious concerns Trump would try to remain in office for a 3rd term based on his past behavior.

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This, I will not vote for Harris but I refuse to vote for Trump. If evidence was actually produced I would absolutely fall in line but I refuse to vote for someone that baselessly attacked our democracy

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Geminiv said:

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Wabs said:

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JohnnyAlamo said:

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Lifelong Republican but I just can't vote for Trump after the voter fraud debacle and J6. I want honest elections in this country, but I need to see evidence of the fraud that supposedly took place. It's been 4 years and nothing but unproved theories and rumors. I have serious concerns Trump would try to remain in office for a 3rd term based on his past behavior.

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So your answer is to vote for an all out socialist system? You do know that you're allowed to use your own brain and decide for yourself whether the election was stolen or not. At the very minimum (and proven by FACT), government agencies conspired with social media to suppress a story that would have 100% changed the outcome of the election. That may not be the "fraud" proof you seek, but it does mean the election was not fair.

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They've been known to actually concede and leave office. Even if/when elected it's 4 years perhaps some federal and Supreme Court justices. If they do such a bad job then they'll be voted out and replaced with Republicans. So you would perhaps be better off in the long term.
The election wasn't fair because people consume what's put in front of them and don't do their own research? That's literally the describing a huge percentage of the Trump vote so that's about even.

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Iraq2xVeteran said:

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This will be a very close election. Hopefully, Donald Trump and JD Vance stay away from making stupid comments that turn off independent swing voters in swing states. For example, they'll lose voters by calling Kamala Harris a DEI hire or making comments about race. Instead, he should attack Harris and Waltz' radical policies, such as calling for defunding the police and trying to decriminalize illegal immigration. That could resonate with these crucial voters. If they could focus on these issues, they should win most of the swing states, but that will require some discipline to articulate persuasive messages to the public.

With 219 electoral votes from the red states, Trump must win Pennsylvania (19), North Carolina (16), and Georgia to reach exactly 270 electoral votes needed to win the election. For now, I think Trump will win 287 electoral votes by winning Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, but I won't be surprised if he loses again.

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Jack Boyette said:

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Hillary didn't concede.

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TA-OP said:

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Jack Boyette said:

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Hillary didn't concede.

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Flat out lie.

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GenericAggie said:

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TA-OP said:

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Jack Boyette said:

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Hillary didn't concede.

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Flat out lie.

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She called him an illegitimate President and carried the Russia helped him message his entire term.

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Funky Winkerbean said:

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Are people not understanding how bad the Kamala ticket is? Trumps campaign and positions are great for moderates but the infatuation with identity is blocking their view.

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dmart90 said:

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Trump has a ceiling of support because he is so disliked. Everything he does that turns off the "concerned moderates" just gives Harris, God help us, a better chance at the presidency.

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Rapier108 said:

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Most likely he will, but of course his ardent followers will blame it solely on fraud, rather than the fact he is a crappy candidate with sky high negatives.

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GenericAggie said:

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A non vote is a vote for Harris.

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Geminiv said:

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GAC06 said:

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Quote:

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Yet the political reality is that he has a ceiling of support that is below 50% because so many Americans dislike him.

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Needs to be said again, but his base would rather cry about "feels" rather than open their eyes to the political reality.

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Well the electoral college means he doesn't have to get to 50%. He lost the popular vote by 2 two in 2016 and won. Lost by 4 in 2020 and was a few thousand votes from winning. I suspect he'll lose the popular vote by 3 or more this time around and the race will be a tossup.

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bobbranco said:

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dmart90 said:

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Trump has a ceiling of support because he is so disliked. Everything he does that turns off the "concerned moderates" just gives Harris, God help us, a better chance at the presidency.

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Cliff jumpers! Go. Jump. Please. End your misery.

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Rapier108 said:

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Most likely he will, but of course his ardent followers will blame it solely on fraud, rather than the fact he is a crappy candidate with sky high negatives.

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Jeeper79 said:

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bobbranco said:

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dmart90 said:

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Trump has a ceiling of support because he is so disliked. Everything he does that turns off the "concerned moderates" just gives Harris, God help us, a better chance at the presidency.

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Cliff jumpers! Go. Jump. Please. End your misery.

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I see no doom and gloom. Only cold hard facts. Youre the one attributing doom and gloom to it.

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bobbranco said:

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dmart90 said:

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Trump has a ceiling of support because he is so disliked. Everything he does that turns off the "concerned moderates" just gives Harris, God help us, a better chance at the presidency.

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Cliff jumpers! Go. Jump. Please. End your misery.

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Quote:

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And yet, when the RealClearPolitics average for the Trump vs. Biden matchup ended July 21, Trump was ahead 47.9 percent to 44.8 percent in a two-way race. With Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West thrown in, Trump was ahead of Biden 43.4 percent to 39.2 percent.

In other words, after Biden had been metaphorically dragged across concrete for a month, and just about everything had gone right for the Republican nominee, Trump led by three to four points. That's a 3.6 roentgens of a result "not great, not terrible."

What this past month has taught us is that Donald Trump has a hard ceiling.

There are a lot of Americans who love Trump, and a lot of Americans who hate Trump, and a small sliver in the middle who don't particularly like him but who are at least theoretically open to voting for him. But even in the near-best-case scenario of 2016, Trump won 49 percent of the vote in Florida, 47.5 percent of the vote in Michigan, 49.8 percent of the vote in North Carolina, 48.8 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania, and 47.2 percent of the vote in Wisconsin.

****

A lot of Trump fans walk around believing that a large majority of the country loves their man as passionately and intensely as they do and it's just not true. On a really good day for Trump, about 47 or 48 percent of poll respondents will say they feel favorably toward Trump. On the bad days, it's in the mid 30s. Just about every day, well over 50 percent of poll respondents say they feel unfavorably toward him.

It's not that Harris is, to use one of my favorite phrases, a whirling dervish of raw political charisma. But an enthusiastic Democratic party and a full-throated cheerleading effort from the mainstream media are a potent combination.

Trump has a much smaller margin of error running against Harris than against Biden. Name-calling, winging it, and riffing the way he does at his rallies probably isn't going to get it done.

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LMCane said:

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here is why so many of us knew Trump would lose the election in 2024 if he was the nominee

1. He has been a blowhard and deliberately offensive to independents and women who live in the suburbs

2. he is lazy in his campaign. He loves being the rock star with his thousands of adulating fans. but studying in depth policy, metrics, positions of his opponents, facts. he can't be bothered. So he speaks in bumper sticker language "if you are jewish you are crazy to vote for Harris!" instead of "here are the ten reasons you should not vote for Harris"

3. he does not invest in a ground operation in very close states such as WI, MI and PA. when have you EVER seen him actually go into a GOTV local district office and talk to the volunteers and staff and understand how many homes have been visited.

4. he prefers to jet from place to place- where is his bus tour through every town in PA?

5. he cannot stay on script- he has to continually prove how smart and funny he is (because he is a supreme narcissist) and so riffs, adds non sequitors, moves from topic to topic then circles back not really making any point

6. notice Harris is doing the EXACT OPPOSITE. she visited a local Harris campaign office. she sticks on script 100% of the time. she doesn't really say anything. they focus on the get out the vote (cheating) game

now see which one is more effective. because we did see which approach wins in 2018, 2020, 2022.

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