Trump didn't blow the election, the republican party did. Trump was never capable of winning this election. The republican leadership should've known this and pushed back against MAGA, but they were too scared to. Former presidents typically aren't supposed to run against after losing reelection, but Trump selfishly decided to anyway. Around 2022, most of Trump's midterm endorsements had lost, and it looked like the Republican party was finally about to ditch Trump. But he slowly came back and beat Ron DeSantis. It seems that the republican base has an incredibly short term memory. Trump lost in 2020 and in 2022, but he still has supporters because republicans chase the high they had on 2016 election night when Trump miraculously defied all odds and triggered all the MSNBC pundits. They don't understand that 2016 Trump is long gone. He is too old and carries too much baggage.
Trump exists as a shadow of his former self. You can see it in the way he speaks. The media likes to refer to this as "Trump's greatest hits". His speeches have become more bizarre and more incomprehensible. He'll stick to the few talking points he knows best and make obviously unbelievable exaggerations. For example, he'll say something like "The border was the worst border in the history of borders under Joe Biden, and when I was president, it was the strongest it had ever been ever!" No facts or data are used to back this up. No details or solutions. It's just typical salesman talk. Everyone can see through it, even his own supporters are tired of it. There is so much about politics to talk about, but Trump can't talk in any meaningful way. He just repeats the same memorized lines at every rally. He'll talk about millions of immigrants invading, inflation destroying everyone's bank accounts, the rigged election, and something about solving abortion. Once you've been to one Trump rally, you've been to them all.
In 2016, people said that Trump was different because he said it how it was. Sure he was offensive, but that was just him telling the Truth, unlike other politicians who concealed their true intentions through political speak. Flash forward to 2024, "Trump's greatest hits" have become the new political speak. Trump is does not come across as genuine anymore. Everyone can now recognize his canned talking points that don't mean anything and only serve to get cheers from the crowd.
Forget Jan 6. Forget the incitements. Trump is going to lose because his charisma has wore off.