Vance sounded a lot like Jeb with his Mountain Dew joke (please laugh) and really hasn't sounded that great speaking so far. He doesn't have the cross over appeal that say Youngkin would have. Trump already has Ohio wrapped up, so no benefit there. In a VP debate instead of Kamala, he might go against Kelly or Shaprio and might not come out looking so good. I don't think Vance would cost Trump the election because Trump looks way better than Kamala, but I don't really see what Vance brings to the table. Other VP options had much more upside.