Looking at RCP multi candidate polls seems like outcome could come down to how many vote for RFK in WI and MI. Why are some polls zero and other 3-5%?

#New General election poll - Virginia

🔵 Harris 51% (+10)
🔴 Trump 41%

Last poll - 🔵 Harris +3

Roanoke #D - 859 LV - 10/29

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 1, 2024

The ones who have those at 0 probably are over-sampling well educated Democrats. Most of the votes that go to him, after the Democrats insisted he remain on the ballot through lawfare, will be under-educated protest votes mad at Kamala/Biden over the Middle East/"Palestine" etc. He and Jill Stein will get plenty of those but the polls aren't focused on that, due to opt in sampling errors.

I don't think RFK gets 3 percent though in MI, for example, as regardless of what folks think about anything else, if they want RFK policies they will have listened to him, and most of those will go to Trump, in the actual booth:

#NEW FINAL MICHIGAN poll

🔵 Harris: 48% (+3)
🔴 Trump: 45%
🟡 RFK: 3%
🟢 Stein: 3%
🟣 West: 1%

Final 2020 poll: Biden+7

Favorability:
🔴 Trump: 47% (+2)
🔵 Harris: 45%

EPIC-MRA | Released 11/1 | N=600LV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 1, 2024

📊 Statewide polling by @ActiVoteUS

PA Senate
🟦 Casey (inc): 50.5% (+1.0)
🟥 McCormick: 49.5%

Last poll: Casey +4.6
——
MI Senate
🟦 Slotkin: 51.2% (+2.4)
🟥 Rogers: 48.8%
——
AZ Senate
🟦 Gallego: 54.3% (+8.6)
🟥 Lake: 45.7%
——
WI Senate
🟦 Baldwin (inc): 53.6% (+7.2)
🟥… pic.twitter.com/qQ0Qw2Ri9x

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 1, 2024

📊 NEW MEXICO Poll by Survey USA

🔵 Harris: 50%
🔴 Trump: 44%
🟣 Other: 3%

#15 (2.8/3.0) | 10/28-31 | 632 LV | ±5.2%https://t.co/bsXoLKpkBh

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 1, 2024

BREAKING — Cook Political Report anticipates GOP Senate majority could grow to 54 seats

— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) November 1, 2024

So, I'm confused. How can this be a GOP Senate huge win without the GOP winning the top of the ticket?

aggiehawg said:

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BREAKING — Cook Political Report anticipates GOP Senate majority could grow to 54 seats

— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) November 1, 2024

So, I'm confused. How can this be a GOP Senate huge win without the GOP winning the top of the ticket?

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Sheehy flipping Tester's seat = 50
Jim Justice taking Manchin's seat = 51

________________________________
^ bare minimum

Moreno polling close to incumbent Sherroid Brown in OH with a big tailwind from Trump/Vance at the top of the ticket = 52?
McCormick polling very close to incumbent Casey in PA, with tailwind from Trump/Vance at the top = 53?

#54 to come from one of these two:
Rogers polling close to Slotkin in MI?
Hovde polling close to incumbent Baldwin in WI?


Polling seems to indicate that all the R incumbents are safe, with Ted Cruz in TX being the most in-danger after so many millions of foreign and out of state funding for commie allred.

snowball's chance in hell because Trump is polling close at the top of the ticket?
Sam Brown in NV - battling an incumbent and lack of funds
Lake in AZ - massive funding for radical opposition (like the Cruz/TX race). too many have consumed the pravda narrative on Lake.
Hung Cao in VA - Kaine is a name brand incumbent

zero chance:
Steve Garvey in CA- Schiff is the worst. The absolute worst. But Commiefornia is too far gone.

📊 Final polling by @Rasmussen_Poll

PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 49%
🟦 Harris: 47%

NEVADA
🟥 Trump: 49%
🟦 Harris: 47%

NORTH CAROLINA
🟥 Trump: 50%
🟦 Harris: 47%
——
PA Senate
🟦 Casey (inc): 46%
🟥 McCormick: 46%

NV Senate
🟦 Rosen (inc): 50%
🟥 Brown: 41%

NC Governor
🟦…

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 1, 2024

Wow.

For what it's worth, over the last few days Mark Mitchell (Rasmussen) had been consistently saying that he thinks their polling is actually to the left of what the actual results are going to be.

1836er said:

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For what it's worth, over the last few days Mark Mitchell (Rasmussen) had been consistently saying that he thinks their polling is actually to the left of what the actual results are going to be.

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So even better numbers for Trump?

Yes, that is what he's saying.

1836er said:

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For what it's worth, over the last few days Mark Mitchell (Rasmussen) had been consistently saying that he thinks their polling is actually to the left of what the actual results are going to be.

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I'm assuming he doesn't believe pollsters are picking up all of Trumps support like in the past elections. And he's saying even he cannot fully detect Trumps unknown new supporters or plain supporters in general.

I'm guessing he's seen internal numbers from both campaigns.

If indeed they're undermining Trumps support similar to past elections, with current polling, + the unknown. This is a possible mega blowout. Possibility over 312

Isn't Atlasintel supposed to be one of the most accurate?

Rockdoc said:

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Isn't Atlasintel supposed to be one of the most accurate?

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22 out of ~240 pollsters that 538 takes tracks

Rockdoc said:

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Isn't Atlasintel supposed to be one of the most accurate?

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Most accurate in 2020 I believe.

Gaeilge said:

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Rockdoc said:

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Isn't Atlasintel supposed to be one of the most accurate?

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22 out of ~240 pollsters that 538 takes tracks

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I believe that AI was the most accurate public pollster of 2020 that tracked many states (instead of some pollsters that focus on a single state).

#NEW FINAL national poll - Muslim voters

🟢 Stein: 42.3%
🔵 Harris: 41%
🔴 Trump: 9.8%
🟡 Not voting. 5.4%

CAIR | 10/30-31 | N=1,449RV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 1, 2024

Will Stein by a spoiler? Could help in Michigan and Minnesota

#New General election poll - Nevada

🔴 Trump 50% (+6)
🔵 Harris 44%

Susquehanna #B - 400 LV - 10/31

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 1, 2024

Captn_Ag05 said:

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#New General election poll - Nevada

🔴 Trump 50% (+6)
🔵 Harris 44%

Susquehanna #B - 400 LV - 10/31

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 1, 2024

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Didn't Susquehanna have that crazy Harris +6 poll in MI? There polls seem to be all over the place?

Captn_Ag05 said:

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#NEW FINAL national poll - Muslim voters

🟢 Stein: 42.3%
🔵 Harris: 41%
🔴 Trump: 9.8%
🟡 Not voting. 5.4%

CAIR | 10/30-31 | N=1,449RV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 1, 2024

Will Stein by a spoiler? Could help in Michigan and Minnesota

---

Seems like it. I'd guess if there wasn't the current Israeli conflict going on right now, most of the Stein Muslim vote would go to Kamala.

TheWoodlandsTxAg said:

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Data shows men are planning to vote in huge numbers Tuesday.

If that happens, Trump is President.

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) November 1, 2024

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why would anyone not vote? I guess if I got stuck living in a democratic hell hole like New York or California where my vote was meaningless, I could see saying "Frick it I'm not standing in line". But I doubt I would do that.

TheWoodlandsTxAg said:

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Data shows men are planning to vote in huge numbers Tuesday.

If that happens, Trump is President.

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) November 1, 2024

---

aggiehawg said:

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BREAKING — Cook Political Report anticipates GOP Senate majority could grow to 54 seats

— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) November 1, 2024

So, I'm confused. How can this be a GOP Senate huge win without the GOP winning the top of the ticket?

---

Polling trends indicate this is a super close race in several key states. If the margin of victory is as razor thin as it could be for Trump/Harris, the GOP NeverTrumpers could be the difference in a Senate candidate winning a state while Trump loses it.

At this point the polling has me cautiously optimistic that Trumplicans enthusiasm translates in the right mixture of states that Trump wins easily and the AlwaysTrumpers vote GOP down ballot enough with the GOP NeverTrumpers that the Senate does reach 54.

I posted this earlier in the week. I'm seeing what Cook Report is seeing. The polling trends for these GOP senate candidates that has lagged behind their opponent this whole cycle is headed in their direction. It seems like that becomes enough to lift both Trump and the Senate candidates up at the same time. But Trump creates strange emotions and the traditional GOP voting base is fractured. I think polling shows that Trump is pulling in enough nontraditional GOP voters that it's offsetting the GOP NeverTrumpers. But it's close. If GOP NeverTrumpers didn't exist I think the polling would be showing a blowout for Trump.

policywonk98 said:

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the difference in a Senate candidate winning a state while Trump loses it.

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polling seems to indicate there are a number of states where Trump could win at the top of the ticket, but the R senate candidate loses. OH, AZ, NV, all three states in the "blue wall", etc.. and even possibly Texas if you believe some polls. ...but which states are you seeing where you think the opposite could happen? Seems like none to me.

Things are so polarized right now, have a hard time seeing a massive split ticket movement.

I think political analysts are like weathermen, they could be wrong half the time because of various factors and it doesn't matter at all

oh no said:

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policywonk98 said:

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the difference in a Senate candidate winning a state while Trump loses it.

---

polling seems to indicate there are a number of states where Trump could win at the top of the ticket, but the R senate candidate loses. OH, AZ, NV, all three states in the "blue wall", etc.. and even possibly Texas if you believe some polls. ...but which states are you seeing where you think the opposite could happen? Seems like none to me.

---

Based on trends, not numbers. I think I said that upfront.

GOP has been set at 51 for Senate pretty much entire cycle. So this is a question of where they might pick up 1-3 additional seats.

Let's take Ohio for example. Not a perfect example because Trump has been set to win Ohio the entire time. But Moreno has been consistently behind the entire cycle but has closed the gap to within the MoE just in the final month. That's a trend toward a GOP challenger. Over the same timeframe nothing has really changed in polling for Trump in Ohio. So poll trending toward GOP in the Senate race, stayed same for Trump. Roughly speaking.

Now, let's go to PA. Entire cycle Trump and Harris have bounced around in the polling, most of it within the MoE. Sometimes Trump is up, sometimes Harris up. From a trend perspective, this tells me that whatever the outcome, it's pretty much been set at razor thin the whole time and it' comes down to turnout effort by campaign. Not the same with the PA Senate race. In the Senate race Casey was outside the MoE for much of the cycle until the last month. McCormick started landing within the MoE here in the closing month. Again, where Trump in PA has bounced around within the same zone, the polling for McCormick has trended his direction.

Wisconsin is the same phenomenon.

This has even happened in NV and AZ. But the movements toward the GOP challengers is less significant.

Not saying GOP wins any of these races. I'm just saying that based on polling trends in the final four weeks. The possibilities for victory is greater for the GOP in those states today than it had been for virtually the entire cycle. It stands to reason that Trump pulling ahead is highly correlated, but the polling for him has changed at the same level and remains stubbornly inside or very close to the MoE.

Mark Mitchell definitely isn't parsing words

Half of America voted already!
Trump wins big among people who say they're voting on election day.
This race is basically wrapped!

— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@Mark_R_Mitchell) November 1, 2024

📊 VIRGINIA poll by @cygnal

🟦 Harris: 50%
🟥 Trump: 43%
🟪 Other: 2%
—
VA Senate
🟦 T. Kaine (inc): 52%
🟥 Hung Cao: 42%
——
2025 GOP Gov. Primary
• Winsome Sears - 48%
• Jason Miyares - 12%
——
#71 (2.1/3.0) | 10/27-29 | 600 LVhttps://t.co/nB62XcMxGY

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 1, 2024

Odd. Guess lobbyists are now on the same level as pollsters regarding accuracy and prognostications

Quo Vadis? said:

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Mark Mitchell definitely isn't parsing words

Half of America voted already!
Trump wins big among people who say they're voting on election day.
This race is basically wrapped!

— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@Mark_R_Mitchell) November 1, 2024

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"stalled" to me = were at the end of early voting in many states. Its now an election day turnout battle.