Muh Polls

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aggiehawg
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 2:49p, 10/31/24
AG
I have been wondering the last few days whether Lake had a shy Lake voter issue given that she has been so vilified by her fellow press members in AZ?

Thoughts?
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AgResearch
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 2:50p, 10/31/24
AG
That would be a shocking outcome
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OldArmy71
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2:53p, 10/31/24
AG
That Arizona Senate poll makes me question the reliability of the rest of their polling.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to OldArmy71 • 2:56p, 10/31/24
AG
OldArmy71 said:
That Arizona Senate poll makes me question the reliability of the rest of their polling.

It all depends on how long are Trump's coattails. She has been polling about 5-6 points down from Trump. So this result is inline with general spreads from other polls.

Edit: If early voting trends hold, then Trump should win by 5-6 in line with this poll.
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FrioAg 00
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2:59p, 10/31/24
AG
Bovada has moved the wrong way to -175 overall, based on negative movement in MI (+110) and Wisc (-120)

But PA is holding at -180 right now
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aggiehawg
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In reply to OldArmy71 • 2:59p, 10/31/24
AG
OldArmy71 said:
That Arizona Senate poll makes me question the reliability of the rest of their polling.
Have been watching AZ closely. Can't say I'm really that surprised she's closing in because as Trump's margin goes up, so does hers recently. This has been steady in the last few polls that Baris has also noticed and commented upon. He's finding the same in his AZ polling.
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1939
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3:04p, 10/31/24
AG
The polling out of Maine and NH is a real game changer. If Trump was able to carry one of those two states he could win the Electoral College without any of WI/MI/PA assuming he wins in NC/AZ/NV.
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1836er
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In reply to OldArmy71 • 3:06p, 10/31/24
AG
OldArmy71 said:
That Arizona Senate poll makes me question the reliability of the rest of their polling.
Or that Arizona Senate poll reflects the reality that since the beginning of the age of Obama there are very few ticket splitters in Presidential Election years that vote for a Senate candidate of the opposite party from their presidential vote.

Downballot, non-federal office elections still see more ticket splitters, but not Senatorial elections.

The ONLY time in recent elections that President-Senate ticket splitters have been meaningful enough in numbers to decide an election was for Susan Collins in Maine.

Lake might perform 1-2% less than Trump in Arizona... but if Trump wins by 2 or more % she probably wins as well.

IMO the "tightening" we're seeing in the Senate polls in AZ, PA, MI, and WI is less a reflection of actual late changes in the status of those races than it is pollsters choosing to publish more reasonable looking polls at the last minute before the election.
Vance in '28
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McInnis 03
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In reply to GoAgs92 • 3:38p, 10/31/24
AG
GoAgs92 said:
People profit taking on Polymarket pushing the odds for Trump down?
Given the MOE on polls in accordance with the common theme of "voting results are suspect", people should be taking flyers on the high risk candidate dollar-wise.
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nortex97
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3:49p, 10/31/24
AG
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NPH-
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In reply to 1939 • 3:50p, 10/31/24
AG
1939 said:
The polling out of Maine and NH is a real game changer. If Trump was able to carry one of those two states he could win the Electoral College without any of WI/MI/PA assuming he wins in NC/AZ/NV.


Big if true!
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Captn_Ag05
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4:12p, 10/31/24
AG
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FrioAg 00
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6:28p, 10/31/24
AG
Don't like what I'm seeing on betting markets with PA now dropping to Trump -165
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SwigAg11
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In reply to FrioAg 00 • 6:32p, 10/31/24
AG
FrioAg 00 said:
Don't like what I'm seeing on betting markets with PA now dropping to Trump -165

There has not been a single bit of bad or troubling news for Trump in Pennsylvania at all today. I think bettors are just hedging the market right now.
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aginlakeway
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In reply to FrioAg 00 • 6:32p, 10/31/24
AG
FrioAg 00 said:
Don't like what I'm seeing on betting markets with PA now dropping to Trump -165

Doesn't that mean nothing money has come in to move the line, just like sports betting? It doesn't mean who will win or lose. It means what the odds are so that money can come in both ways.

Am I wrong?
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
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Gaeilge
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In reply to FrioAg 00 • 6:33p, 10/31/24
Polls are tightening. It's like any other betting. I'd venture to guess people that don't understand PA voting patterns are seeing the +19% for Kamala and don't understand the pattern of R voters in PA.
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MelvinUdall
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In reply to aginlakeway • 6:38p, 10/31/24
aginlakeway said:
FrioAg 00 said:
Don't like what I'm seeing on betting markets with PA now dropping to Trump -165

Doesn't that mean nothing money has come in to move the line, just like sports betting? It doesn't mean who will win or lose. It means what the odds are so that money can come in both ways.

Am I wrong?


No, people are betting on value now…I can bet X for Harris, it is good value…it is like a line moving, bettors come in and move the line…-165 is still good for Trump, in a betting market perspective.
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Captn_Ag05
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6:49p, 10/31/24
AG
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Cage_Stage
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 6:49p, 10/31/24
AG
SwigAg11 said:
FrioAg 00 said:
Don't like what I'm seeing on betting markets with PA now dropping to Trump -165

There has not been a single bit of bad or troubling news for Trump in Pennsylvania at all today. I think bettors are just hedging the market right now.


Well, NBC released this story today about the make-up of first time voters in battleground states. Arizona went one way while Pennsylvania was going the other....
Quote:
The data out of Pennsylvania shows large differences in the number of votes cast by new voters, both by party registration and by gender. More new voters are registered Democrats than Republicans, and new female voters are driving this partisan gap. The new male voters are only slightly more likely to be Democrats than Republicans, but among new female voters, Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/early-voting-data-shows-new-voters-group-swing-election-rcna178187
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outofstateaggie
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6:57p, 10/31/24
AG
All I know is that this homie from Rasmussen has been crazy confident in his latest tweets.







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Captn_Ag05
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7:03p, 10/31/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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11:04p, 10/31/24
AG


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Captn_Ag05
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11:05p, 10/31/24
AG
Marist just dropped their final polls

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Captn_Ag05
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11:07p, 10/31/24
AG
Everyone stay calm. RCP average has already flipped in WI and MI. Three polls out this evening showing a Harris lead in PA will likely flip the PA average. Betting markets will likely move in response tomorrow.

It's likely just noise.
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FTAG 2000
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11:18p, 10/31/24
AG
They're just trying to pull it into the margin of fraud

Friendly reminder, Marist had Biden winning by 11 in 2020
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ttha_aggie_09
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:19p, 10/31/24
AG
Looks like this group was off 6pts in 2020. Not worried

(Marist polls)
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to ttha_aggie_09 • 11:21p, 10/31/24
AG
SoCal is actually partnered/sponsored by a conservative group this cycle. But their polling hasn't been friendly to Republicans.
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ttha_aggie_09
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:22p, 10/31/24
AG
Yeah I quoted the wrong one. I was referring to Marist
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nortex97
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7:13a, 11/1/24
AG


Great trends since the garbage comments came out.
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FrioAg 00
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7:36a, 11/1/24
AG
I agree it's noise - just unclear if his lead was noise or the adjustment is noise.

I don't think any significant population in the country has changed their decision on who to vote for, nor whether to vote at this point.
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Captn_Ag05
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7:50a, 11/1/24
AG
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FireAg
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7:50a, 11/1/24
AG
Awful economic news coming out on the job front this morning…

Interested to see if that has any impact on the daily tracking polls…
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Captn_Ag05
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7:51a, 11/1/24
AG
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nortex97
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 7:52a, 11/1/24
AG
FTAG 2000 said:
They're just trying to pull it into the margin of fraud

Friendly reminder, Marist had Biden winning by 11 in 2020
Marist's track record is pure crap. But in the rust belt, it's worse than that.



But I'll throw this out anyway, for folks curious about what even a fraudster like Marist show for Election Day polling in those states:


So when folks like Silver or ABC fake news 538 give them "A" ratings, just keep that in mind; they are working toward an objective, and it isn't to portray the polls accurately.



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nortex97
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8:26a, 11/1/24
AG
Interesting on that other PA poll yesterday:
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