66 this am.

What states? In pa, Harris has trump up 4 and trump has himself up 3.

— Bob (@Twopointoh14) October 31, 2024

Weird, maybe some profit taking or hedging? Look at the steep movement

Yeah pretty odd last night, maybe someone thought there'd be some truth to some of the lies/CNN poll. Profit taking if some folks bought Trump to win back around the DNC makes sense too, I dunno. Didn't have a long term impact obviously.

Well, that is about to go up because nobody believes Harris is going to win either of those states by those margins, if she does, at all.

They are all taking turns inflating her support in your statewide averages while hedging how she still loses.

It's very, very obvious. https://t.co/oAV4CokTir

— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) October 31, 2024

That as well makes sense.

What does Mark Mitchell mean "to the right of us"?

He works for Rasmussen (the company, not RMG). He's snarking about how they are accused of having a GOP bias regularly but they may actually be putting out public numbers that are to the left of reality right now.

Left meaning his numbers favoring Trump might be lower than reality?

Correct. The internal polling he is aware of is apparently better for Trump in the battlegrounds than the Rasmussen Reports figures.

FireAg said:

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What does Mark Mitchell mean "to the right of us"?

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I believe it means the numbers should favor the Rs even more than it shows. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong

Even worse, the democrats that "won" were even more epically stupid and repugnant than the worst republican running and fools still allowed their disgusting ilk to get elected.

You reap what you sow.

FireAg said:

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What does Mark Mitchell mean "to the right of us"?

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Mark Mitchell is the head pollster of Rasmussen. They put out their final poll yesterday with Trump +2 nationally. He's saying that the candidates internal polling (i would assume Trump's internal polling?) is showing it is actually more than +2.

TexAgsSean said:

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FireAg said:

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What does Mark Mitchell mean "to the right of us"?

---

Mark Mitchell is the head pollster of Rasmussen. They put out their final poll yesterday with Trump +2 nationally. He's saying that the candidates internal polling (i would assume Trump's internal polling?) is showing it is actually more than +2.

---

Baris and Gallup have the electorate at R+3 for this election right now. Atlas Intel (most accurate pollster of 2020) has it at R+2. Then you have a slew of historically inaccurate public pollsters with Harris up which is really bringing the popular vote polling to about even.

SwigAg11 said:

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TexAgsSean said:

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FireAg said:

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What does Mark Mitchell mean "to the right of us"?

---

Mark Mitchell is the head pollster of Rasmussen. They put out their final poll yesterday with Trump +2 nationally. He's saying that the candidates internal polling (i would assume Trump's internal polling?) is showing it is actually more than +2.

---

Baris and Gallup have the electorate at R+3 for this election right now. Atlas Intel (most accurate pollster of 2020) has it at R+2. Then you have a slew of historically inaccurate public pollsters with Harris up which is really bringing the popular vote polling to about even.

---

Are these R+ electorate assumptions being influenced by early voting numbers?

Quote:

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Baris and Gallup have the electorate at R+3 for this election right now. Atlas Intel (most accurate pollster of 2020) has it at R+2. Then you have a slew of historically inaccurate public pollsters with Harris up which is really bringing the popular vote polling to about even.

---

One other data point that figures into why public polling may be off by an influential margin in a few of the states, the 2020 Census. In states such as North Carolina, the Census takers missed people particularly in western NC. That was a known problem from back in 2022. So if the public polls start from the Census results and don't do a deeper dive, they are underpolling right out of the gate.

The Census problem also occurred in Texas and Florida from what I understand. We'll see if the Census comes up during the post mortem on the polling this cycle.

FireAg said:

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SwigAg11 said:

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TexAgsSean said:

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FireAg said:

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What does Mark Mitchell mean "to the right of us"?

---

Mark Mitchell is the head pollster of Rasmussen. They put out their final poll yesterday with Trump +2 nationally. He's saying that the candidates internal polling (i would assume Trump's internal polling?) is showing it is actually more than +2.

---

Baris and Gallup have the electorate at R+3 for this election right now. Atlas Intel (most accurate pollster of 2020) has it at R+2. Then you have a slew of historically inaccurate public pollsters with Harris up which is really bringing the popular vote polling to about even.

---

Are these R+ electorate assumptions being influenced by early voting numbers?

---

Speaking of Baris, since I've listened to a couple of his shows now, he took large samples of the electorate - including those who have voted, not voted, and will not vote. His polling results for those who have already voted appear to line up nearly exactly with what is being observed in early voting for the states who give out some details.

Edit: Short answer: his polling appears to be almost perfectly aligned with the early vote as of the last 1-2 days, and he has not been using the early vote as weighting.

#NEW FINAL MICHIGAN poll

🔵 Among likely voters: Harris+1
🔴 Registered voters: Trump+2

Washington Post | 10/24-28

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 31, 2024

Granmar is important.

"Uh oh"

"Was worse [for Republicans] in 2020"

"Worse for Republicans" [in 2020]

📊 Final UMass Lowell/YouGov polling

NEW HAMPSHIRE
🟦 Harris: 50% (+7)
🟥 Trump: 43%
🟪 Other: 3%
——
MICHIGAN
🟦 Harris: 49% (+4)
🟥 Trump: 45%
🟪 Other: 3%
——
PENNSYLVANIA
🟦 Harris: 48% (+1)
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟪 Other: 3%
——
NORTH CAROLINA
🟥 Trump: 47% (+2)
🟦 Harris: 45%
🟪…

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 31, 2024

The recent polls have been showing this enthusiasm gap in favor of Dems. The nazi/racist/fascist stuff was 100% a ploy to get Dem base excited. Not sure why R base has gotten less enthusiastic over the past few months.

Gallup is one of the few I trust.

#New Enthusiasm Poll

🔵 Democrats 77%
🔴 Republicans 67%

Gallup

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 31, 2024

Captn_Ag05 said:

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The recent polls have been showing this enthusiasm gap in favor of Dems. The nazi/racist/fascist stuff was 100% a ploy to get Dem base excited. Not sure why R base has gotten less enthusiastic over the past few months.

Gallup is one of the few I trust.

#New Enthusiasm Poll

🔵 Democrats 77%
🔴 Republicans 67%

Gallup

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 31, 2024

---

How does one poll enthusiasm?

Highway6 said:

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FireAg said:

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What does Mark Mitchell mean "to the right of us"?

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I believe it means the numbers should favor the Rs even more than it shows. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong

---

He and Baris are claiming the real numbers may be favoring Trump more than their own reported metrics.

I am highly skeptical as they were more pro-Trump in 2020 and we see how that worked out

rgag12 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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The recent polls have been showing this enthusiasm gap in favor of Dems. The nazi/racist/fascist stuff was 100% a ploy to get Dem base excited. Not sure why R base has gotten less enthusiastic over the past few months.

Gallup is one of the few I trust.

#New Enthusiasm Poll

🔵 Democrats 77%
🔴 Republicans 67%

Gallup

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 31, 2024

---

How does one poll enthusiasm?

---

Asking voters how excited they are to vote for their candidate is typically the most common way. A more excited a voter is, the more likely they will turn out and wait in line.

Harris (CCP) probably has something like a 5 or even 8 point lead among independent RV's in NC, but if I had to guess, it's smaller than that after the hurricane. I've seen no polling evidence she will close the gap via the Indie vote. Pro Democrat October poll:



Even Emerson and Redfield have put Trump ahead:

Quote:

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For example, a Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll conducted between Oct. 25 and 27 found the former president leading Harris 48% to 46%. The poll sampled 916 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.24 percentage points. Similarly, a SurveyUSA poll conducted a few days earlier with a sample of 1,050 adults found the candidates were tied at 47%.

Trump led Harris by two points 50% to 48% in an Emerson College poll conducted between Oct. 21 and 22. The survey sampled 950 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, putting Trump's lead within that margin.

---

Captn_Ag05 said:

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rgag12 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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The recent polls have been showing this enthusiasm gap in favor of Dems. The nazi/racist/fascist stuff was 100% a ploy to get Dem base excited. Not sure why R base has gotten less enthusiastic over the past few months.

Gallup is one of the few I trust.

#New Enthusiasm Poll

🔵 Democrats 77%
🔴 Republicans 67%

Gallup

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 31, 2024

---

How does one poll enthusiasm?

---

Asking voters how excited they are to vote for their candidate is typically the most common way. A more excited a voter is, the more likely they will turn out and wait in line.

---

Could dramatically underestimate enthusiasm by people who are holding their nose to vote for Trump. They are enthusiastic to vote against Kamala, but would rather it be somebody besides Trump to vote for.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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The recent polls have been showing this enthusiasm gap in favor of Dems. The nazi/racist/fascist stuff was 100% a ploy to get Dem base excited. Not sure why R base has gotten less enthusiastic over the past few months.

Gallup is one of the few I trust.

#New Enthusiasm Poll

🔵 Democrats 77%
🔴 Republicans 67%

Gallup

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 31, 2024

---

Eh this doesn't surprise nor bother me. Trump is not someone a good chunk of Republicans "want" to vote for but that doesn't mean he isn't one they will go to great lengths to vote for.

Further rallying up the base dem vs republican runs the risk of alienating the independents.

#NEW FINAL ARIZONA poll

🔴 Trump: 48% (+2)
🔵 Harris: 46%
🟡 Undecided: 5%
🟢 Other: 3%@Rasmussen_Poll | 10/25-29 | N=803LV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 31, 2024

JB99 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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The recent polls have been showing this enthusiasm gap in favor of Dems. The nazi/racist/fascist stuff was 100% a ploy to get Dem base excited. Not sure why R base has gotten less enthusiastic over the past few months.

Gallup is one of the few I trust.

#New Enthusiasm Poll

🔵 Democrats 77%
🔴 Republicans 67%

Gallup

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 31, 2024

---

This seems counterintuitive. Dem early voting is down, R is up. Repubs are outpacing Dems in voter registrations as well

---

Yeah, the early voting data does not support the poll result, which probably means there is a gap between R motivation and R enthusiasm. A significant portion of the R electorate is not "enthusiastic" about voting for Trump, but they are extremely "motivated" to vote based on how the last 4 years have gone and what 4-8 years under Kamala would look like.

txags92 said:

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JB99 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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The recent polls have been showing this enthusiasm gap in favor of Dems. The nazi/racist/fascist stuff was 100% a ploy to get Dem base excited. Not sure why R base has gotten less enthusiastic over the past few months.

Gallup is one of the few I trust.

#New Enthusiasm Poll

🔵 Democrats 77%
🔴 Republicans 67%

Gallup

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 31, 2024

---

This seems counterintuitive. Dem early voting is down, R is up. Repubs are outpacing Dems in voter registrations as well

---

Yeah, the early voting data does not support the poll result, which probably means there is a gap between R motivation and R enthusiasm. A significant portion of the R electorate is not "enthusiastic" about voting for Trump, but they are extremely "motivated" to vote based on how the last 4 years have gone and what 4-8 years under Kamala would look like.

---

Seems like semantics. They should have just asked how likely are you to go vote.

I think it all depends on how they phrased the question. Since I am an engineer who does nothing but technical writing at this point, I am very pedantic in my understanding of what I read and will always use a literal interpretation on first read.

JB99 said:

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txags92 said:

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JB99 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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The recent polls have been showing this enthusiasm gap in favor of Dems. The nazi/racist/fascist stuff was 100% a ploy to get Dem base excited. Not sure why R base has gotten less enthusiastic over the past few months.

Gallup is one of the few I trust.

#New Enthusiasm Poll

🔵 Democrats 77%
🔴 Republicans 67%

Gallup

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 31, 2024

---

This seems counterintuitive. Dem early voting is down, R is up. Repubs are outpacing Dems in voter registrations as well

---

Yeah, the early voting data does not support the poll result, which probably means there is a gap between R motivation and R enthusiasm. A significant portion of the R electorate is not "enthusiastic" about voting for Trump, but they are extremely "motivated" to vote based on how the last 4 years have gone and what 4-8 years under Kamala would look like.

---

Seems like semantics. They should have just asked how likely are you to go vote.

---

Some of them do ask that, but if they asked me how enthusiastic I am about voting for Trump, I would probably not say "very" because I would rather be voting for DeSantis, but I am extremely motivated to vote against the Ds, so there was never a question of whether I would turn out and vote R.

This lines up nearly spot on with Baris's numbers.

#NEW FINAL GEORGIA poll

🔴 Trump: 51% (+5)
🔵 Harris: 46%
🟡 Undecided: 2%
🟢 Other: 2%@Rasmussen_Poll | 10/25-28 | N=910LV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 31, 2024

Captn_Ag05 said:

---

rgag12 said:

---

Captn_Ag05 said:

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The recent polls have been showing this enthusiasm gap in favor of Dems. The nazi/racist/fascist stuff was 100% a ploy to get Dem base excited. Not sure why R base has gotten less enthusiastic over the past few months.

Gallup is one of the few I trust.

#New Enthusiasm Poll

🔵 Democrats 77%
🔴 Republicans 67%

Gallup

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 31, 2024

---

How does one poll enthusiasm?

---

Asking voters how excited they are to vote for their candidate is typically the most common way. A more excited a voter is, the more likely they will turn out and wait in line.

---

so the fact that in nearly every state the GOP registrations have been surging and early voting has increased dramatically from Republicans compared to past elections...

but they are less excited than normal??!

does not compute

LMCane said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

---

rgag12 said:

---

Captn_Ag05 said:

---

The recent polls have been showing this enthusiasm gap in favor of Dems. The nazi/racist/fascist stuff was 100% a ploy to get Dem base excited. Not sure why R base has gotten less enthusiastic over the past few months.

Gallup is one of the few I trust.

#New Enthusiasm Poll

🔵 Democrats 77%
🔴 Republicans 67%

Gallup

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 31, 2024

---

How does one poll enthusiasm?

---

Asking voters how excited they are to vote for their candidate is typically the most common way. A more excited a voter is, the more likely they will turn out and wait in line.

---

so the fact that in nearly every state the GOP registrations have been surging and early voting has increased dramatically from Republicans compared to past elections...

but they are less excited than normal??!

does not compute

---

What would the numbers have to look like for them to be excited?

#NEW BATTLEGROUND STATES poll

Voters who have voted in...
🔵 '22/'24 primaries: Harris+3
🟡 '22, not primaries: Tie
🔴 '20 general election only: Trump+12
🔴 No voting record: Trump+19

NYT/Siena | PA/MI/WI/AZ/GA/NC

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 31, 2024