Muh Polls

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agracer
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In reply to nortex97 • 1:45p, 10/30/24
AG
nortex97 said:

And public faith in the MSM is so low, they have no ability to turn the polls around;

Is there any context to that graphic?
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jt16
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In reply to agracer • 1:49p, 10/30/24
AG
agracer said:
nortex97 said:

And public faith in the MSM is so low, they have no ability to turn the polls around;

Is there any context to that graphic?


Gotta be trust in msm or something like that
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1836er
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1:56p, 10/30/24
AG
In the grand scheme of things what that graphic reminds us is that independents are tracking much closer to Republicans than Democrats on most of the stuff that matters.

This shows up in the polls on various questions like "do you trust the media?" and "are you better off than you were four years ago?" - as well as major indicators like right track/wrong track and favorability meters.

If you watched Frank Luntz' cheesy Dem/Rep/Ind trackers he runs during debates, you would see the independent line running closer to the Republican line as well.
Vance in '28
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nortex97
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In reply to agracer • 2:01p, 10/30/24
AG
It's the Gallup survey. I view this as excellent news, as people who trust the media in my opinion are subject to leftist manipulation.
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Captn_Ag05
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2:49p, 10/30/24
AG
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aggiehawg
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2:52p, 10/30/24
AG
Hhm. Guess that recent NH poll rattled the Harris campaign?

Quote:
BREAKING: Bill Clinton heads to New Hampshire on Friday to campaign for Kamala Harris - WMUR
Eric Daugherty.
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Captn_Ag05
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2:53p, 10/30/24
AG
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Jack Boyette
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2:55p, 10/30/24
Looks like they moved Wisconsin to Harris on RCP, must be based on that poll earlier that tipped the average back to her side. Was 297 to 241 this morning, now 287 to 251.
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FireAg
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In reply to aggiehawg • 2:57p, 10/30/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
Hhm. Guess that recent NH poll rattled the Harris campaign?

Quote:
BREAKING: Bill Clinton heads to New Hampshire on Friday to campaign for Kamala Harris - WMUR
Eric Daugherty.

We are probably at the point now where a poll's validity can be confirmed by campaign surrogate schedules/schedule changes…
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 2:59p, 10/30/24
AG
What is the MOE on that? TIA.
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SwigAg11
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2:59p, 10/30/24
AG
Baris and Barnes were discussing how they believe NH and ME were getting into the MOE in polls with MN getting pretty close as well.
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aggiehawg
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3:05p, 10/30/24
AG
Baris with today's breakdown. He's still bullish on Trump winning. Good listen, if you have the time.

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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to aggiehawg • 3:07p, 10/30/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
What is the MOE on that? TIA.

Quote:
The survey of 901 New Hampshire Likely Voters was conducted on October 24-28, and the survey of 959 Minnesota Likely Voters was conducted on October 24-26, 2024, by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
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FireAg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 3:16p, 10/30/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
aggiehawg said:
What is the MOE on that? TIA.

Quote:
The survey of 901 New Hampshire Likely Voters was conducted on October 24-28, and the survey of 959 Minnesota Likely Voters was conducted on October 24-26, 2024, by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

So well within MOE…that's impressive for Trump…
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 3:17p, 10/30/24
AG
Thank you!
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JDUB08AG
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In reply to Jack Boyette • 3:22p, 10/30/24
AG
Jack Boyette said:
Looks like they moved Wisconsin to Harris on RCP, must be based on that poll earlier that tipped the average back to her side. Was 297 to 241 this morning, now 287 to 251.


What an absurd outlier. Go back months and neither had anywhere close to a +6 lead.
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AtticusMatlock
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3:54p, 10/30/24
One of Trump's campaign managers was on Sean Spicer's stream earlier. Said they still haven't decided whether or not Trump will go to New Hampshire but it's on the table. They are trying to find the most useful spot for him over the weekend.
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SpreadsheetAg
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4:04p, 10/30/24
AG
The Amish are voting (en bloc) for Trump

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txags92
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In reply to SpreadsheetAg • 4:30p, 10/30/24
AG
SpreadsheetAg said:
The Amish are voting (en bloc) for Trump

I wonder what that will mean for statewide races in PA, since part of their mobilization is from perceived state government interference in their lifestyle. Gov is not up for election, but I wonder if it will change anything else, since the areas they are in are already quite red.
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Captn_Ag05
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4:59p, 10/30/24
AG
Still a gap, but it does show movement to Trump. I think he has some momentum there.

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Captn_Ag05
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5:00p, 10/30/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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5:02p, 10/30/24
AG
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nortex97
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5:29p, 10/30/24
AG
Tump is up to +.4 nationally.





Caution, Silver poll opinions: he's also yelling (profanely) at Matthew Dowd, which I take as yet another good sign.


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Captn_Ag05
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6:28p, 10/30/24
AG
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SwigAg11
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:24p, 10/30/24
AG
Hasn't FoxNews been a pretty inaccurate pollster in the past?
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1836er
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 9:31p, 10/30/24
AG
SwigAg11 said:
Hasn't FoxNews been a pretty inaccurate pollster in the past?
Yes. They have a long history of overstating Dem support.
Vance in '28
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1836er
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9:42p, 10/30/24
AG
The students of Maine have spoken!

Vance in '28
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oh no
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10:03p, 10/30/24
AG
If pollsters' model adjustments weren't made from the last two erroneous disasters, are dems looking like Carter 80, Mondale 84, or Dukakis 88 next week?



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FireAg
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In reply to oh no • 10:04p, 10/30/24
AG
oh no said:
If pollsters' model adjustments weren't made from the last two erroneous disasters, are dems looking like Carter 80, Mondale 84, or Dukakis 88 next week?




Oh my…that's impressive…
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1939
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In reply to oh no • 10:46p, 10/30/24
AG
oh no said:
If pollsters' model adjustments weren't made from the last two erroneous disasters, are dems looking like Carter 80, Mondale 84, or Dukakis 88 next week?





Would be nice to see what the actual results in 2020 were.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to 1836er • 10:54p, 10/30/24
AG
1836er said:
SwigAg11 said:
Hasn't FoxNews been a pretty inaccurate pollster in the past?
Yes. They have a long history of overstating Dem support.


They have switched their pollster this cycle due to their poor results, so we can't really compare at this point.
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Quo Vadis?
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11:56p, 10/30/24
About a 14 point narrowing in polymarket….anyone know why?
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TexAgsSean
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 12:01a, 10/31/24
AG
Quo Vadis? said:
About a 14 point narrowing in polymarket….anyone know why?


14 or 4?
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to TexAgsSean • 12:28a, 10/31/24
TexAgsSean said:
Quo Vadis? said:
About a 14 point narrowing in polymarket….anyone know why?


14 or 4?


Looks like about 11 now. He was at 67-32 earlier, and is now at

62- 38

Don't see much movement in the states.

Over the last day:

PA steady at 61/40 Trump
AZ a little up at 76/26 Trump
Georgia steady at 74/27 Trump
North Carolina steady at 73/28 Trump
Wisconsin has gone from 60/42 to 54/47 Trump
Michigan has gone from Trump 52/49 to Harris 54/47
Nevada steady 66/34 Trump

I'm not sure what's causing the movement in Wisconsin and Michigan other than that major cnn outlier poll that was released
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Quo Vadis?
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4:28a, 10/31/24
And just like that he's back near all time high
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