Muh Polls

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nortex97
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6:47a, 10/29/24
AG
All well within MOE:





Personally, I like the trend in Michigan and would swag that his turnout will provide the difference in actual votes, then we have to see what happens:

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SpreadsheetAg
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8:41a, 10/29/24
AG
Kids Pick the President - Wikipedia
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Silvertaps
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8:59a, 10/29/24
AG
I remember in elementary school we were polled for President.
Assuming the thought is the kids will more than likely vote what their parents are voting, so it can give a "ballpark" sample size.
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Philip J Fry
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9:00a, 10/29/24
AG
Basically, the poll is historically way off even if they end up picking correctly. Pretty sure Obama didn't garner 65% of the vote against Romney
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Tumble Weed
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9:49a, 10/29/24
Today the BBC has Trump leading in

Nevada (6)
Trump <1

Pennsylvania (19)
Trump <1

North Carolina (16)
Trump +1

Georgia (16)
Trump +2

Arizona (11)
Trump +2

Has them tied in Wisconsin. Harris up by +1 in Michigan.

Full article here that is updated daily.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4x71znwxdo


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sam callahan
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9:50a, 10/29/24
So it only misses when republicans win.
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Captn_Ag05
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10:01a, 10/29/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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10:02a, 10/29/24
AG
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Tswizsle
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10:02a, 10/29/24
those last two aren't looking good
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Captn_Ag05
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10:02a, 10/29/24
AG
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Hungry Ojos
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10:05a, 10/29/24
Down 5 in Michigan?
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Captn_Ag05
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10:05a, 10/29/24
AG
Another NC poll showing a tie this morning

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Captn_Ag05
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10:06a, 10/29/24
AG
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ttha_aggie_09
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In reply to Tswizsle • 10:06a, 10/29/24
AG
Tswizsle said:
those last two aren't looking good
400 LV and probably over sampled Ds by 8%. Not worried
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Ag in Tiger Country
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In reply to Silvertaps • 10:06a, 10/29/24
AG
Except the polling is tainted by teachers' input & involvement; many of today's teachers are super woke, so you can be certain that the children get daily programming by propaganda & indoctrination. Hell I remember my high school computer science teacher handing out a colorized pamphlet showing aborted & mutilated babies; I was a senior in a VERY red school district but still found it shockingly wild.

BTW- Bush beat Clinton by 92% in our school poll, so...
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 10:08a, 10/29/24
AG
Emerson has Trump plus one there in a larger poll conducted on three days and not just a Sunday.
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Gaeilge
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 10:08a, 10/29/24
Hungry Ojos said:
Down 5 in Michigan?
Susquehanna is ranked 66th on 538 amongst pollsters.

I wouldn't put much faith in it
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txags92
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:12a, 10/29/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Another NC poll showing a tie this morning

No point in polling registered voters one week from election day. They skew D, and the turnout in early voting so far suggests the Ds are not turning out.
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SwigAg11
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10:15a, 10/29/24
AG
The only state that has any movement right now is MI somewhat towards Harris. And that's only because 3 of the least accurate pollsters have Harris up. The 4 most accurate pollsters of 2020 have Trump +1-3.
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Captn_Ag05
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10:16a, 10/29/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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10:18a, 10/29/24
AG
Trump holds on the small leads in the RCP average in all swing states except Michigan has shifted back to Harris.

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jr15aggie
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:27a, 10/29/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Trump holds on the small leads in the RCP average in all swing states except Michigan has shifted back to Harris.


Still interesting to see these stats compared to the actual results. They were somewhat close in some states but were 5+ points too far left in other places like Michigan.

For me the overall consensus is still the same... Trump was a big underdog in these polls in '16 & '20 and way overperformed these numbers. Now these averages have him winning in all but MI. Even if he only slightly overperforms this time it will still be a blowout.


EDIT: It does appear like some of this is trying to correct/account for past errors. Florida has obviously swung way right in these polls. But there are plenty of people that think Trump will push to double digits in FL so even with a huge swing, the polls might still be wrong by 1-2 points.
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FireAg
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In reply to txags92 • 10:31a, 10/29/24
AG
txags92 said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Another NC poll showing a tie this morning

No point in polling registered voters one week from election day. They skew D, and the turnout in early voting so far suggests the Ds are not turning out.

I doubt this poll…

Kamala is pulling her ad spending in NC:

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/10/29/democrat-kamala-harris-surrenders-north-carolina-withdraws-nearly-2-million-planned-ad-spend-state/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwY2xjawGN3vpleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHTkhA5i1vB0xyW5_3ZLyuVfUWUdM9MQz65qWspBRTvSC9XtLBvIhSnyBpQ_aem_kGrAgtJKqHg_F5cVbfN90A

That's typically a sign that a campaign doesn't think they can win there…
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Captn_Ag05
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10:32a, 10/29/24
AG


I continue to believe Wisconsin is the easiest path to a Trump victory.
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Rockdoc
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10:33a, 10/29/24
AG
I don't think the polls are tanking for either side in reality. I think the die was set about 10 days ago and minds were made up. The polls are moving back to the middle, trying to influence people to vote.
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LMCane
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10:49a, 10/29/24
really wish we knew how much greater Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania vote for the Republicans

PA has -270,000 more democrats than republicans registered

no idea what it is in WI and MI but we need to win those two as well and not leave everything to cheating in Philly!

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1836er
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10:52a, 10/29/24
AG
LOL.

It's almost like the Harris bat signal went off a couple weeks ago and a few of the university polls (with terrible track records) answered the call... and decided to poll states they've never polled before.

(I'm looking at you Susquehanna and Elon)
Vance in '28
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:13a, 10/29/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:

Love that Ohio has gone from purple state to a fairly reliably Red State in the last 20 years
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Captn_Ag05
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11:26a, 10/29/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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11:28a, 10/29/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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12:29p, 10/29/24
AG
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IDaggie06
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 12:31p, 10/29/24
AG
That CNN Ariona poll shows a 6 point swing for Kamala compared to poll 2 months ago. Granted that was done before the debate but the past month has been favoring trump.
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TexAgsSean
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 12:31p, 10/29/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:


Does anyone know why Arizona doesn't seem to like Kari Lake?
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Drahknor03
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In reply to TexAgsSean • 12:42p, 10/29/24
AG
Not AZ, the McCainiacs. They have about 10% of the AZ vote locked up. If the McCain family says Gallego instead of Lake, that's how they are going to vote.
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texagbeliever
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In reply to TexAgsSean • 12:45p, 10/29/24
TexAgsSean said:
Captn_Ag05 said:


Does anyone know why Arizona doesn't seem to like Kari Lake?


Lake is trying to mimic Trump's aggressive persona. In my opinion, it is very tough for a woman to pull that off and be likeable.

Also her opponent is a 2 face lying weasel so the media being dishonest has hurt her as well.
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