I have seen most recently that polls usually are +3-+7 % democrat favored right now. Which, to me indicates they are not even really trying to make up for the Trump hidden voters that we know exist because of 2016 and 2020…. And for the first time ever, I have seen that R's actually lead in numbers registered and identifying as R by about 2-3% now. First time in ages…. Which could truly spell a massive landslide incoming on 11/5 with the way things seem to be trending. I'll believe it when I see it. And I'm not even getting my hopes up….

#NEW NORTH CAROLINA poll

🔵 Harris: 47% (+1)
🔴 Trump: 46%

Last poll: Harris+1

SurveyUSA | 10/17-20 | N=1,164RV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 22, 2024

Have not double-checked Eric's comments here, but he's saying in that poll that Harris is +1 with RV but Trump is +2 with LV. However, they made the RV results the top-line for reasons…

I am calling 100% BS on this poll. Why?

Because their last poll was Harris+1 also among RVs, but TIED among likely voters.

This same poll has Trump+2 among both the "LV" categories... but they don't make it the topline. They stick to the Harris+1... unlike their last poll.… https://t.co/nzR5l4RQ9V pic.twitter.com/mbhdeEfphS

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 22, 2024

Let's hope those are accurate and that they translate down ballot.

will25u said:

---

Baris is a good pollster, but I think this is over the top. Though not really polls, he takes the data from his polls.

Some of Barnes' predictions today:

Pennsylvania: Trump +4
Michigan: Trump +3
Wisconsin: Trump +4
North Carolina: Trump, not close, not a swing state
Georgia: Trump +5 or more
Arizona: Trump +6
Nevada: Trump +3-4https://t.co/wl9nYJAkS3

— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 23, 2024

---

I actually think these state polls are pretty spot on.

When interpreting polls the trends they show are oftentimes more telling than the actual numbers published, and even the most favorable to Harris polls are still running 4-8 points better for Trump in the national popular vote than these same polls were saying in 2016 and 2020. Literally everyone, even the worst polls for Trump, are showing marked improvement from where he was polling in 2016/2020.

Relating this to the battleground states, in 2016 Trump lost the national popular vote by 2.1 points and in 2020 he lost by 4.5 points, yet in every one of the battleground states he did a few points better than he did in the national popular vote. His worst showing amongst any of the battleground states in either election was losing Michigan in 2020 by 2.8 points, which was still nearly 2 points better than he did in the national popular vote.

Simply put... it is very unlikely that Trump will do worse in any of the battleground states than he will do in the national popular vote this time either. The most likely outcome, based upon all previous comparable evidence, is that he will run 2.8 to 5 points better in most of the battleground states than he will in the popular vote.

In other words, Harris will likely have to be ahead by at least 2.8 points in the popular vote to be favored in even a single battleground state this time around. To suggest that Trump is up nationwide in the popular vote compared to 2016 and 2020, but that somehow this trend won't be reflected in the battleground states strains credulity.

I like Baris, but Barnes is a bloviator. Would not trust his analysis on anything, especially election data related.

#New General election poll - North Carolina

🔴 Trump 49% (+3)
🔵 Harris 46%

Socal - 702 LV - 10/21

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 23, 2024

Redstate looks at the cross tabs of the AJC Georgia poll and finds doom for Kamala (just one section is excerpted here from the link):

Quote:

---

The bad news for Kamala is that the gender gap in Georgia is much greater than in national polls. While Harris leads among women by 18 points (55.4 to 37.2), Trump carries men by a whopping 31 points (59.3 to 28.3). Even if women have a higher voting rate than men, it is hard to see how this is overcome.

Age Preference
Trump leads among 1829-year-olds (52.3 to 44.3), 4564-year-olds (51.9 to 42.1), and the 65+ crowd (45.6 to 43.6). Kamala leads by 10 points with the 30-44 demographic (47.2 to 37.3).

Race and Ethnicity
Trump carries White voters by a 38-point margin (66.1 to 28.4). Kamala wins Black voters by 66 points (73.8 to 7.6) and "Other" voters by 13 points (52.7 to 39.2). Biden flipped Georgia in 2020 by winning 88% of the Black votes (and a few 18-wheelers of badly needed ballots).

Education
Trump wins voters with a high school diploma or less by 20 points (54.8 to 34.8) and those with some college by four points (49.5 to 45.0). Harris takes the college group by 10 points (49.1 to 38.8).

The Dog That Didn't Bother to Get Up
One thing really stood out in the cross tabs of this poll. The demographics that Trump carried, he did so convincingly. Kamala voters were a little more uncertain. For instance, while Kamala leads Black voters by 66 points, 17.6 are "undecided" only two weeks out. She leads 3044-year-olds by 10, but 14.2 percent remain undecided. Among college graduates, 10.6 percent say they haven't made up their minds.

---

Quote:

---

The other impact is the truism that "undecideds break to the challenger."

Big Issues
From Politico's overview of the AJC poll:

Quote:

---

What we're watching: Heading into the presidential election, 60% of voters said they believed the country is on the wrong track, compared with 28% who said it's on the right path.

• 19% say inflation and the cost of living are their top issues.
• Rounding out the top five were the economy/jobs (17%), preserving democracy (17%), immigration (14%) and abortion (8%).

---

I would contend that, at best, one of these cuts in Kamala's favor: abortion. Of course, we don't really know what "abortion" means here. Does it mean you want to keep it or get rid of it? The Democrats like to pretend that "preserving democracy" is their issue. I don't think that is the case. Many, many conservatives believe that if Kamala wins in two weeks, our Constitutional Republic may not survive another four years.

---

🚨 JUST IN: The early voting data in Nevada is so bad for Democrats that Trump has SURGED to a 65% chance of winning there.

Kamala has plummeted to only 35%. pic.twitter.com/nbszpw3FQv

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 23, 2024

#New General election Tracking poll

🔵 Harris 49% (+2)
🔴 Trump 47%

Oct 19 - 🔴 Trump +2

Tipp #A+ - 1294 LV - 10/22

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 23, 2024

#New General election poll

Florida
🔴 Trump 54% (+8)
🔵 Harris 46%

Texas
🔴 Trump 53% (+7)
🔵 Harris 46%

Emerson #B - LV - 10/21

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 23, 2024

#New Senate Poll - Texas

🔴 Cruz • 48% (+1)
🔵 Allred • 47%

Emerson #B - LV - 10/21

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 23, 2024

#New Senate Poll - Florida

🔴 Scott • 53% (+6)
🔵 Powell • 47%

Emerson #B - LV - 10/21

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 23, 2024

Who is Eric Daugherty and why should he be trusted? Does he have a good track record?

Polls at this point are getting more and more useless as we have actual votes to use instead of polls.

But still good to look at.

He posts a lot of polls. He's an R partisan, that doesn't mean his analysis is wrong, just keep it in mind. Think of him a political polls on X but with flavor.

Barnes is a different guy from Baris and makes his money from grifting off of Trump

they were both pumping sunshine in 2020

I wouldn't believe much of what they say.

TexAgsSean said:

---

Who is Eric Daugherty and why should he be trusted? Does he have a good track record?

---

he has no record- he is just a guy collating and posting other people's polls and metrics

some of what he posts is total bs and other is actual information.

LMCane said:

---

Barnes is a different guy from Baris and makes his money from grifting off of Trump

they were both pumping sunshine in 2020

I wouldn't believe much of what they say.

---

This. I don't put much stock in those two after 2020. And would prefer we don't even post their stuff here.

nm.

nortex97 said:

---

Redstate looks at the cross tabs of the AJC Georgia poll and finds doom for Kamala (just one section is excerpted here from the link):

Quote:

---

The bad news for Kamala is that the gender gap in Georgia is much greater than in national polls. While Harris leads among women by 18 points (55.4 to 37.2), Trump carries men by a whopping 31 points (59.3 to 28.3). Even if women have a higher voting rate than men, it is hard to see how this is overcome.

Age Preference
Trump leads among 1829-year-olds (52.3 to 44.3), 4564-year-olds (51.9 to 42.1), and the 65+ crowd (45.6 to 43.6). Kamala leads by 10 points with the 30-44 demographic (47.2 to 37.3).

Race and Ethnicity
Trump carries White voters by a 38-point margin (66.1 to 28.4). Kamala wins Black voters by 66 points (73.8 to 7.6) and "Other" voters by 13 points (52.7 to 39.2). Biden flipped Georgia in 2020 by winning 88% of the Black votes (and a few 18-wheelers of badly needed ballots).

Education
Trump wins voters with a high school diploma or less by 20 points (54.8 to 34.8) and those with some college by four points (49.5 to 45.0). Harris takes the college group by 10 points (49.1 to 38.8).

The Dog That Didn't Bother to Get Up
One thing really stood out in the cross tabs of this poll. The demographics that Trump carried, he did so convincingly. Kamala voters were a little more uncertain. For instance, while Kamala leads Black voters by 66 points, 17.6 are "undecided" only two weeks out. She leads 3044-year-olds by 10, but 14.2 percent remain undecided. Among college graduates, 10.6 percent say they haven't made up their minds.

---

---

What's interesting is that 30-44 is 100% millenials. And Trump is winning all the other generations.

Maryland is done. What a waste of money by Mitch on his way out the door. Shoulda sent more to VA and TX, imho.

#New Senate Poll - Maryland

🔵 Alsobrooks 57% (+14)
🔴 Hogan 43%

President - 🔵 Harris +30

Emerson #B - 865 LV - 10/21

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 23, 2024

Scott v. Nelson rematch I do feel pretty great about:

2018 Florida Senate - Scott vs. Nelson

RCP Poll average: 🔵 Nelson +2.4
Election results: 🔴 Scott +0.2 https://t.co/3QgXMs11Tn

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 23, 2024

🚨 BREAKING: Trump has GAINED AGAIN in The Economist's election forecast.

🔴 Trump: 56%
🔵 Harris: 44%

Battleground win margins:
🔵 MI: Harris+0.1
🔵 NV: Harris+0.1
🔴 WI: Trump+0.5
🔴 PA: Trump+1
🔴 GA: Trump+2
🔴 NC: Trump+2
🔴 AZ: Trump+2 pic.twitter.com/tLBEMH0fdA

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 23, 2024

Not an attack on you at all, but that their model still shows her ahead in NV is entirely discrediting of their modeling.

FWIW:

🚨 New Mexico is within the margin of error for Trump… It would be first Republican to win the presidential race in NM in 20 years.

It’s happening… History is meant to be broken! pic.twitter.com/bvaqPk9wDC

— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) October 22, 2024

Quote:

---

Republicans believe they can win New Mexico for the first time in 20 years and conservative advocacy groups are spending big on Spanish-language commercials for the last two weeks of the election.

"New Mexico is the dark horse this presidential cycle," Jay McClesky, a longtime political strategist for Republicans in the state, told The Post. "New Mexico hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years but Trump could change that."

---

Quote:

---

Sources say groups including the conservative advocacy group Election Freedom, as well as RFK Jr.'s Make America Healthy Again PAC, have ramped up their advertising efforts for a final push.

Election Freedom's $5 million ad blitz is primarily going to pay for Spanish language ads that highlight how Kamala Harris and New Mexico's Democratic senator Martin Heinrich have created inflation and allowed a surge in illegal immigration as crime rises two issues voters in New Mexico overwhelmingly say they are focused on.

---

NY Post

LMCane said:

---

Barnes is a different guy from Baris and makes his money from grifting off of Trump

they were both pumping sunshine in 2020

I wouldn't believe much of what they say.

---

Barnes is a lawyer, who happens to be representing the Amish farmer Amos Miller against the state of PA.

Baris is the pollster, who was not Sunshine pumping in 2020. He said it would be a very close race determined by small margins in a handful of states, which it was. His Big Data polls were amongst the most accurate in 2020 (2016 as well), way better than the media/university polls, all within the margins of error. His only real miss in the last 8 years was the PA senate race in 2022.

Just to be clear, Barnes is setting his betting lines here. He's all about the betting sites but using polling data to formulate that analysis.

ETA: Baris has a few different podcasts. The one wherein he has Barnes on is called, "What Are the Odds?" so it geared towards gambling and betting sites.

1836er said:

---

LMCane said:

---

Barnes is a different guy from Baris and makes his money from grifting off of Trump

they were both pumping sunshine in 2020

I wouldn't believe much of what they say.

---

Barnes is a lawyer, who happens to be representing the Amish farmer Amos Miller against the state of PA.

Baris is the pollster, who was not Sunshine pumping in 2020. He said it would be a very close race determined by small margins in a handful of states, which it was. His Big Data polls were amongst the most accurate in 2020 (2016 as well), way better than the media/university polls, all within the margins of error. His only real miss in the last 8 years was the PA senate race in 2022.

---

I watched Baris religiously on his Youtube channel in 2020 during Covid and he was definitely too sanguine and overestimated Trump's strength in Arizona and Georgia

yes he said it would be close, but he also said Trump would pull it out several times

At worst barnes was wrong marginally. That was insanely close of an election. To even be saying Trump would win when he was polling nowhere close means he certainly should have more credence then most.

Looking at Barnes being wrong in terms of absolute is a foolish thing to do. Ie trump didn't win so Barnes has no credibility

[Reminder to the board: this thread is for posters sharing, discussing, and trying to understand polls. It's not for a discussion on voter fraud, individual opinions (including James Carville) on who will win a state, personal projections of the Electoral College, abortion, or any other tangent -- Staff]

#New General election poll

🔴 Trump 51% (+2)
🔵 Harris 49%

Last poll - 🔵 Harris +2

HarrisX #C - 1244 LV - 10/22

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 23, 2024

Silver or anyone else give HarrisX a grade in 2020

I would have that on my laptop but am in my phone and kind of busy.

Thanks

Yes, A "c"