Muh Polls

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nortex97
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8:21a, 10/13/24
AG
Trump up to +.4 in battlegrounds, leading in all but one as of this am on RCP:








So, basically all 3 MSM polls are pulling back on what they have (falsely) claimed is a Harris popular vote lead.
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Captn_Ag05
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10:05a, 10/13/24
AG
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nortex97
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10:11a, 10/13/24
AG






This is indeed the 'let's get our polls back to reality so we don't look too far off when the final results come in' phase of polling.
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to nortex97 • 11:14a, 10/13/24
Rasmussen's pollster also said he thought that would happen if the powers that be thought Trump was going to win to try and avoid punishment when he is in office
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nortex97
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1:00p, 10/13/24
AG
Umm, this seems good?




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nortex97
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7:06p, 10/13/24
AG
Quote:
So, about Wisconsin.
Four polls have been done in the Badger state that, either in whole or in part, took place in October. Let's have a look:
  • Quinnipiac (10/3-10/7): Trump +2
  • The Hill/Emerson (10/5-10/8): Tie
  • Wall Street Journal (9/28-10/8): Tie
  • InsiderAdvantage (10/8-10/9): Tie
That's not great news for either ticket, but the trendline - see the page linked above - is narrowing, and it's important to note that Harris had a pretty constant 1-2 point lead through the summer.
Is Wisconsin Kamala's last stand?
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SwigAg11
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:11p, 10/13/24
AG
nortex97 said:
Quote:
So, about Wisconsin.
Four polls have been done in the Badger state that, either in whole or in part, took place in October. Let's have a look:
  • Quinnipiac (10/3-10/7): Trump +2
  • The Hill/Emerson (10/5-10/8): Tie
  • Wall Street Journal (9/28-10/8): Tie
  • InsiderAdvantage (10/8-10/9): Tie
That's not great news for either ticket, but the trendline - see the page linked above - is narrowing, and it's important to note that Harris had a pretty constant 1-2 point lead through the summer.
Is Wisconsin Kamala's last stand?

And Wisconsin has always swung the most to the right from the polling done in that state compared to the other rust belt states for many presidential elections now.
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Captn_Ag05
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8:09p, 10/13/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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8:11p, 10/13/24
AG










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BCO07
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8:15p, 10/13/24
AG
These polls that show 4 and 5 points different between President and senate seem suspect. No way there's that many people splitting the ballot
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txags92
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In reply to BCO07 • 8:25p, 10/13/24
AG
BCO07 said:
These polls that show 4 and 5 points different between President and senate seem suspect. No way there's that many people splitting the ballot
If anything, I would expect the split to be the reverse of what they are showing. Republicans not voting for Trump but otherwise voting for republicans will almost certainly outnumber dems voting for Trump, but otherwise voting dem.
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dmart90
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In reply to BCO07 • 8:38p, 10/13/24
AG
BCO07 said:
These polls that show 4 and 5 points different between President and senate seem suspect. No way there's that many people splitting the ballot

If the Senate candidate is terrible; why not?
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Ag06Law
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In reply to BCO07 • 8:53p, 10/13/24
AG
BCO07 said:
These polls that show 4 and 5 points different between President and senate seem suspect. No way there's that many people splitting the ballot


Of course there are. Senators can become entrenched and difficult to beat. There are many examples of senators who get re-elected even when their party goes a different way in presidential elections.
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DCPD158
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In reply to Ag06Law • 8:54p, 10/13/24
AG
Ag06Law said:
BCO07 said:
These polls that show 4 and 5 points different between President and senate seem suspect. No way there's that many people splitting the ballot


Of course there are. Senators can become entrenched and difficult to beat. There are many examples of senators who get re-elected even when their party goes a different way in presidential elections.
Then again, Americans are lazy voters
Company I-1, Ord-Ords '85 -12thFan and Websider-
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94chem
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9:10p, 10/13/24
Only 36% of Trump voters think the stock market is up for the year? That one is shocking to me.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-harris-poll-how-information-beliefs-shape-tight-2024-campaign/
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
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BCO07
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In reply to Ag06Law • 9:12p, 10/13/24
AG
I mean how trump is outperforming incumbent republican senators ie Cruz
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1836er
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In reply to txags92 • 9:35p, 10/13/24
AG
txags92 said:
BCO07 said:
These polls that show 4 and 5 points different between President and senate seem suspect. No way there's that many people splitting the ballot
If anything, I would expect the split to be the reverse of what they are showing. Republicans not voting for Trump but otherwise voting for republicans will almost certainly outnumber dems voting for Trump, but otherwise voting dem.
There are some very particular states where this may happen, but it will not be the norm.

In many of the northern and midwestern states, especially the "rust belt," Trump tends to do better than the generic Republican on the ballot... especially if that generic Republican has not sufficiently differentiated himself from the Wall Street-neocon establishment.

While most Trump voters won't split their ticket, there is a portion (enough to matter) of the working class, traditionally lower-propensity voters that give Trump his margins in those states have little interest in voting for a Bush-McCain-Romney-Ryan kind of Republican.
Vance in '28
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Sq 17
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In reply to BCO07 • 9:53p, 10/13/24
BCO07 said:
I mean how trump is outperforming incumbent republican senators ie Cruz


Democrat leaning voters who won't vote for a woman
Iirc in AZ 4 years trump narrowly lost to Biden and Kelly ( D senate candidate) beat the R who was a woman by 2-3 points
Meaning their were ticket splitters who voted for Trump and Kelly in this case it was R leaning voters who wouldn't vote for a woman
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1836er
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In reply to BCO07 • 9:58p, 10/13/24
AG
BCO07 said:
I mean how trump is outperforming incumbent republican senators ie Cruz
I don't think the margin between Trump and Cruz will be that much; my guess is probably about 1.5%-2%.

That being said here are my thoughts as to why. Here's, IMO, the main reason.

Some of Trump's supporters are very new to the idea of voting Republican, and won't consider voting for a Republican that is not sufficiently differentiated from the Bush-era, Wall Street-Neocon dominated Republican Party. I think we will see this dynamic playout, specifically, with Trump running a few points better than Cruz with Hispanic, black, working class, and younger voters in Texas.

Off the top of my head here are a couple other lesser/possible explanations.

Cruz was already a reasonably well-known political commodity prior to the rise of Trump (he emerged as a Tea Party era favorite). If you are one of the small portion of Trump voters that in 2008 (or even 2016) was an Obama voter (because you thought - wrongly - that Obama was actually going to govern in opposition to the establishment), you're negative first impressions of Cruz from back then might still hold sway.

A very, very, very, very tiny fraction of Trump voters might still hold a grudge against Cruz from the 2016 campaign. This is silly of course, but I'm sure there are a few voters out there that just don't like/trust Cruz because of it.
Vance in '28
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nortex97
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In reply to Sq 17 • 3:55a, 10/14/24
AG
Trump is running ahead of almost all the senate candidates too.



These guys will have a full PA poll today with DJT ahead for the first time for them:

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nortex97
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6:26a, 10/14/24
AG
Steve Cortez: Polling turning away from Kamala the phony.
Quote:
Was Joe actually a better candidate?
The more Americans learn about Kamala Harris, the less they trust her.

In the last week, she finally faced some unscripted and uncomfortable media situations, and her performance -- into a live microphone without a TelePrompTer revealed just how inauthentic she is.
Swing state polling proves this point, including the big moves toward the GOP in battleground

Pennsylvania polling. The just-released TIPP Insights poll for American Greatness shows Trump leading a tight race in Pennsylvania, 49-48%. That lead shows real improvement over the last poll from the same firm, which showed Trump at -2% just weeks ago. For reference, these polls used sample universes of voters with more Democrats than Republicans

Looking down ballot, the GOP nominee for US Senate, Dave McCormick, shows an even more marked surge. McCormick was -13% vs. incumbent Senator Bob Casey, but now closes the race to a competitive -4%. Importantly, among Pennsylvania voters who watched McCormick's super impressive debate performance, that race is super tight, with McCormick -1% right now.

The main takeaway here is that both Trump and down-ballot candidates have strong battleground state momentum right now. That surge in the battlegrounds is also bolstered by national polling, especially the
NBC News survey that shows Harris losing ALL of her previous +5% countrywide lead. If the NBC poll is correct with a countryside margin tied at 48-48% each, then Trump will almost surely win most or all of the swing states.

Why?

Because a handful of deeply blue, high population parts of the country have such an outsize effect upon national polling. Giant states like California, New York, and Illinois move national polls, but have no real relevance for the presidential Electoral College decision.
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nortex97
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8:09a, 10/14/24
AG




That poll btw has Trump getting 17 percent of the black vote, and winning the 'other' race category.
Quote:

In addition to Georgia, Napolitan News surveys show Trump with a very modest advantage in Arizona and North Carolina. Polling in Pennsylvania and Nevada show the race in those states to be tied. Later this week, Napolitan News will release updated polling results for Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida.
Napolitan News surveys ask an initial question to determine the candidate preference for each voter. Then, a follow-up question is asked of uncommitted voters to see which candidate they are leaning towards. The results are then reported "with leaners."
On the initial ask in Georgia the number without leaners it's Trump 49% Harris 47%.
This Napolitan News Service survey of 731 Likely Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen October 7-10, 2024 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.6.
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Captn_Ag05
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9:45a, 10/14/24
AG
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aggiehawg
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11:50a, 10/14/24
AG
Okay, polls are one thing but where is the ground game currently situated? Will the polls translate into votes?

After watching Sean Spicer nterview people around the country about the outreach efforts, seems they are in a pretty good spot. Yes it is long but very informative.

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will25u
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12:49p, 10/14/24
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Captn_Ag05
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1:32p, 10/14/24
AG
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:34p, 10/14/24
AG
Public polls-GIGO.
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Captn_Ag05
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2:01p, 10/14/24
AG
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LMCane
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2:26p, 10/14/24
a poll released over the weekend I believe the PEW Poll showing the electorate is now R+3

not sure there has ever been an election where the Republicans had the generic advantage going into the election.

better pray that is correct.
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GigEmMortis
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2:28p, 10/14/24
AG
Kamala is in free fall and she knows it. It's likely why she agreed to an interview with Fox News. Her numbers are plummeting and she needs to do anything to stop the bleeding
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SwigAg11
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In reply to LMCane • 2:31p, 10/14/24
AG
LMCane said:
a poll released over the weekend I believe the PEW Poll showing the electorate is now R+3

not sure there has ever been an election where the Republicans had the generic advantage going into the election.

better pray that is correct.

I think it has been at least 20 years or more.
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Captn_Ag05
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2:54p, 10/14/24
AG
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aggiehawg
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3:57p, 10/14/24
AG
Frank Luntz is finally catching up.

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Barnyard96
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4:27p, 10/14/24
AG
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/partner_surveys/election_2024_trump_now_3_in_pennsylvania
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Captn_Ag05
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4:29p, 10/14/24
AG
Welp, Gallup is out with their final party ID numbers. Big swing from just a few weeks ago.

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