Muh Polls

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Ag06Law
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Quo Vadis? said:

And now….for the most insane poll ever



Two points underwater in Az, Ga, Mi.

SIX points up in NV

1 up in PA

Tied in N Carolina and Wisconsin


The Nevada result is quirky and likely not believable, but it does swing the RCP average in Trump's favor for that state. The no toss up map is now 302-236 in favor of Trump.
Captn_Ag05
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This is Scott Rasmussen's polling outfit (not Rasmussen Reports).
Captn_Ag05
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txags92
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Quo Vadis? said:

And now….for the most insane poll ever



Two points underwater in Az, Ga, Mi.

SIX points up in NV

1 up in PA

Tied in N Carolina and Wisconsin
There is no reason to be doing a poll of registered voters instead of likely voters this close to the election unless you are searching for something positive to show democrats.
FrioAg 00
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FWIW - Every day now, Bovada has the odds moving further towards Trump.

Over the past 3 weeks he's moved from +115 to -130.
nortex97
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Polls are often times a game.



Again, turnout and independents are strong indicators (Rasmussen);
Quote:

If the 2024 election were between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, who would you vote for?

Independents Only-
Oct 10: Trump +9
Oct 3: Trump +7
Sep 26: Trump +9
Sep 19: Trump +4
Sep 5: Trump +5
Aug 1: Trump +10

Our party weighting: Dem 35%, REP 33%, Ind 32%
I know silver is a contentious topic and he leans heavily left but I still think he's a smart and funny guy in this area:


Minnesota is a 6 point contest??

Captn_Ag05
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We've have to stop taking Activote seriously. They show Trump only winning Republicans 55-45 and Harris only winning Democrats 63-37. They have had numbers like this on many of their polls.
LMCane
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nortex97 said:

Thx. Baldwin and Slotkin don't look like they are 70% confident/probable to win to me, but it's interesting they would claim that.

Noticed Insider Adv. has Trump ahead now in Michigan too: if he takes Michigan Slotkin must be around a coin flip, imho. RCP has Slotkin up 1.9.






This is actually great:



many times experts on this very thread have showed that it's Wisconsin that votes furthest to the Right for Republicans

but in this RCP it's Wisconsin furthest left

hopefully the other states are correct and the WI is not taking into account hidden Trump voters
nortex97
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True, but I think WI also polls furthest left, which the Rasmussen guys have said many times. I agree it's odd the pollsters haven't taken into account this fact but I don't think they apply different screens/algorithms for a given state.
Captn_Ag05
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rathAG05
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Out of all of the battleground states, Michigan is the most surprising to me.
will25u
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[Reminder: this is a thread on polls, not personal projections of Electoral College maps. Recognizing this post can facilitate a discussion on polls, we'll leave it up but will remove any additional projections that begin to derail the thread. If responding to this one for a conversation on polls, plus do not use the quote feature that repeats the graphics. We'll remove those because they quickly clutter the board. Thanks -- Staff]

The paths to victory for Harris are more difficult than Trump.

Current Map using RCP.


The two easiest paths for Harris are:

1. Sweep the rust belt(WI, MI, PA).

2. Take PA, NV, and 1/2 of NC/GA and pick off any other swing state.


2 seems a bit harder than 1. But WI and GA would be the play for #2. In either of the cases above, NV is not needed for Harris.

For Trump, there are quite a few different ways that could easily play out.

1. Any 2 Rustbelt states, 1/2 NC/GA, and Arizona

2. PA, NC, GA


Again, #2 seems more difficult than #1.

[Reminder: this is a thread on polls, not personal projections of Electoral College maps. Recognizing this post can facilitate a discussion on polls, we'll leave it up but will remove any additional projections that begin to derail the thread. If responding to this one for a conversation on polls, plus do not use the quote feature that repeats the graphics. We'll remove those because they quickly clutter the board. Thanks -- Staff]
Captn_Ag05
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Captn_Ag05
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Captn_Ag05
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They also put out a new Georgia poll. Both show movement towards Trump.

aggiehawg
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1836er
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Just as a reminder, the most accurate polls in 2020 were

1) AtlasIntel
2) Trafalgar Group
3) Rasmussen Reports
4) Harris Insights and Analytics
5) InsiderAdvantage

All of the others were wrong by more than 4%, ALL of them in favor of Biden

Vance in '28
4stringAg
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So correct me if I'm wrong but the following is what I'm gathering from the polls in general:

Many polls in 2020 and 2016 at this point in the race had Biden and Hillary up 5-10% or so in the swing states. Many of those polls missed the mark on the high side and Biden only won by margins of 2-4% while Hillary lost. That means the Dems typically poll higher than the actual votes. If that holds true, even 1-2% polling leads by Kamala at this point are potentially really 1-3pt leads for Trump.

Again, in general if the polling holds true to form from previous elections.
Ag06Law
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4stringAg said:

So correct me if I'm wrong but the following is what I'm gathering from the polls in general:

Many polls in 2020 and 2016 at this point in the race had Biden and Hillary up 5-10% or so in the swing states. Many of those polls missed the mark on the high side and Biden only won by margins of 2-4% while Hillary lost. That means the Dems typically poll higher than the actual votes. If that holds true, even 1-2% polling leads by Kamala at this point are potentially really 1-3pt leads for Trump.

Again, in general if the polling holds true to form from previous elections.
That's basically correct. If the polls are off by what they were in 2016 and 2020 (or even by half of what they were in those years), Donald Trump will be the next president.
nortex97
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The House appears to be the thing holding this trifecta back right now;



Dem poll:


TheWoodlandsTxAg
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Republican Fischer up 6 on Osborn in Fischer sponsored poll by Torchlight Strategies.

Osborn up 3 on Fischer in Osborn sponsored poll by Change Research.

https://punchbowl.news/article/election-2024/deb-fischer-tight-race-in-nebraska/

https://punchbowl.news/debfischerpoll_pbn/
aggiehawg
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Wait! What!



Muslims voting for a Jewish lady candidate?
MasonB
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Jewish lady who hates Israel and is Pro Palestine
aggiehawg
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MasonB said:

Jewish lady who hates Israel and is Pro Palestine
She's running on a river-to-the-sea issue?
nortex97
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Just a different visualization, but it's pretty good.

I am shocked to read that Nevada has flipped on the RCP no-tossup map to Trump, but I think that is based on that…sketchy WSJ poll.
will25u
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Nevada is kinda useless for either campaign except for some weird edge cases.
Prosperdick
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nortex97 said:



Just a different visualization, but it's pretty good.

I am shocked to read that Nevada has flipped on the RCP no-tossup map to Trump, but I think that is based on that…sketchy WSJ poll.
I know it would make the visual too messy but would like to see the actual election results overlayed for Biden and Hillary although we know most of them. I think that would paint an even starker picture.
will25u
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BadMoonRisin
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Captn_Ag05 said:


Trump knows the hand he has, and he is putting all of his chips all-in.

It's going to be a blood bath.
My pronouns are AFUERA/AHORA!
AtticusMatlock
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Green Party. Far left on everything.
nortex97
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I do think Arizona is about over but I am still a little perplexed if 5 percent (or, more properly, 2.5% or more of the total votes) of the voters going statewide for Trump don't pull the lever for Kari Lake.



I think it's obvious the NYT PA poll showing Harris up is just astroturfing, but whatever;




I watched about half of this last night (skipped around). It's Rich Baris, aka 'people's pundit' ('big data poll' and 'inside the numbers') and is really entirely based around his discussion/analysis of the current state of polls, released yesterday ("live" YouTube's won't embed but that's the link). TLDW summary; he thinks the polls really have broken this month Trump's way and won't reverse back now as voting is happening already.
https://www.youtube.com/live/zWrj_0MTeqE
Captn_Ag05
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TheWoodlandsTxAg
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Biden plus 8 sample.

WTF?

PA was Biden +1 in 2020.

Wouldn't that mean Trump is leading right now in PA?

[When responding to another poster, please do not requote all the graphics. It clutters the page for other readers trying to follow the thread. Thanks -- Staff]
Philip J Fry
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That's the question. If the polls are as off as they were in 2016 and 2020, this thing is over. If they are right and they've adjusted their algorithms, then he had a very slim margin.
will25u
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