I think the response to Helene will be more detrimental to the current administration and subsequently the Harris campaign than Milton.

This was not a good week for her when it comes to the media blitz they put her through.

All in all, the Helene response tied to this administration coupled with her tying herself even more to the Biden Presidency will hurt her in these polls that come out over the weekend and early next week.

If you notice, most of these polls being released yesterday and today are from last week which probably included the Helene response, but not her media blitz which seemed to go pretty poorly. The polls that are started around 10/7 and later will be very telling how it went down.

GoAgs11 said:

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I dont believe these polls after they said they was going to be a red wave in 2022 mid terms

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These are not apples to apples comparisons.

Mid-terms and presidential elections, especially in the Age of Trump, are entirely different animals to poll.

(mid-terms are easier to poll)

GoAgs11 said:

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I dont believe these polls after they said they was going to be a red wave in 2022 mid terms

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Ah, but there WAS a red wave! It didn't translate to seats because of some strange distributions and a few really poor candidates. But Republicans won the midterm popular vote by a sizable margin. They just got 9 in the Biden +10 districts and 14 in the Biden +15 districts.

In the aggressively gerrymandered Republican states, Rs wrecked shop.

PredictIt

On September 11

Harris 58
Trump 44

October 10

Harris 51
Trump 54

Polymarket odds spiked for trump the last few hours

55.8 trump
43.6 Harris

Won't be long before they go into full panic mode

Not trying to get too ahead of this, but much of what's happening to Kamala right now in the polling and her campaign responses to the polling is reminding me a little of McCain campaign in 2008. McCanes "Helene" response was the financial Crisis. His response and actions were a high profile PR disaster for his campaign. It was obvious he was out of his depth on financial crisis matters.

I think nexts weeks polling will reflect a quick response to this weeks news cycle and what has become painfully obvious about Kamala right at the time most Americans are paying attention because of the hurricanes.

Update:

56.3 trump
43.3 Harris

aw08 said:

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Update:

56.3 trump
43.3 Harris

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I think she ****ed up bigly with the Milton/DeSantis snafu and it is coming home to roost. DeSantis isn't even in it anymore and he's still taking the dem nominee out of the race.

A lot of these polls are coinciding with the Hurricane response(s).

🚨 BREAKING: 2024 NATIONAL POLL - Pew Research Center

🔵 Harris: 48% (+1)
🔴 Trump: 47%

🟡 Final 2020: Biden+10
🟡 Final 2016: Clinton+7

Sept. 30-Oct. 6 | N=4,025RV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 10, 2024

I don't look too closely at 2020... everything during Covid was weird.

But if you look back at the polling numbers of 2016 where Hillary was comfortably ahead in pretty much every swing state, this looks terrible for Harris. At this point in 2016 some polls had Hillary up close to double digits in PA (which Trump won).

Even if these polls have now corrected themselves 50% back towards center, Harris is going to get pummeled!

jr15aggie said:

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I don't look too closely at 2020... everything during Covid was weird.

But if you look back at the polling numbers of 2016 where Hillary was comfortably ahead in pretty much every swing state, this looks terrible for Harris. At this point in 2016 some polls had Hillary up close to double digits in PA (which Trump won).

Even if these polls have now corrected themselves 50% back towards center, Harris is going to get pummeled!

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I think it depends on the state. Some states enshrined VBM following the 2020 election, but then others, like Georgia, took strong measures to drastically curtail it.

dirtylondrie712 said:

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Her doing all these interviews is the proof that she is down in the polls. If she were doing well, she would be in the basement exactly like biden was in 2020.

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I think this is 100% true. No way they'd have her out there if they thought she was comfortably ahead. You can't convince me the plan all along was to keep her locked up only to unleash her in October. This has to be reactionary.

Ag06Law said:

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dirtylondrie712 said:

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Her doing all these interviews is the proof that she is down in the polls. If she were doing well, she would be in the basement exactly like biden was in 2020.

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I think this is 100% true. No way they'd have her out there if they thought she was comfortably ahead. You can't convince me the plan all along was to keep her locked up only to unleash her in October. This has to be reactionary.

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If we are keeping this on-topic with regards to polls, this does sorta make sense. Joe's polling numbers were good so he just sat in the basement and did nothing (while Trump did rally after rally after rally).

That was quite possibly the plan for 2024, but as the polls started to shift right she had to get out there. Problem for her is, the polling numbers get worse every time the public sees her.

I think one thing that could hurt Trump in polling at this point is if he resorted to old Trump and started saying stupid **** on social media again…

Always made me chuckle, but it apparently was a turnoff for independents…

Looking at the polling now, sure seems like he's doing a decent job of staying out of his own way this time…

Gaeilge said:

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aw08 said:

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Update:

56.3 trump
43.3 Harris

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I think she ****ed up bigly with the Milton/DeSantis snafu and it is coming home to roost. DeSantis isn't even in it anymore and he's still taking the dem nominee out of the race.

A lot of these polls are coinciding with the Hurricane response(s).

---

I think the polls are also coinciding with her ridiculous answer to "would you have done anything different than Biden" question. That was such an open ended easy layup that she blew (insert joke here).

I think the polls are reflecting that the undecideds who have not been happy with the last 4 years realize it will be more of the same with her.

Prosperdick said:

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Gaeilge said:

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aw08 said:

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Update:

56.3 trump
43.3 Harris

---

I think she ****ed up bigly with the Milton/DeSantis snafu and it is coming home to roost. DeSantis isn't even in it anymore and he's still taking the dem nominee out of the race.

A lot of these polls are coinciding with the Hurricane response(s).

---

I think the polls are also coinciding with her ridiculous answer to "would you have done anything different than Biden" question. That was such an open ended easy layup that she blew (insert joke here).

I think the polls are reflecting that the undecideds who have not been happy with the last 4 years realize it will be more of the same with her.

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The problem for Harris is that all these polls coming out now started and ended before her media blitz this week.

Outside of Rasmussen's daily polls of course.

#New General election poll - Pennsylvania

🔴 Trump 49% (+1)
🔵 Harris 48%

Tipp #A+ - 800 LV - 10/9

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 10, 2024

More details on the Pew poll

🇺🇲 NATIONAL POLL by Pew Research

🟦 Kamala Harris: 48%
🟥 Donald Trump: 47%
🟪 Another cand: 5%
——
• White: Trump 55-41%
• Black: Harris 79-14%
• Hispanic: Harris 54-38%
• Asian: Harris 62-30%
---
• Male: Trump 51-43%
• Female: Harris 52-43%
---
• Ages 18-29: Harris… pic.twitter.com/Z8GQl8tjgb

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 10, 2024

Here's what I'm seeing from Dems, perhaps trying to cope, as to why the polling is going the way it is currently:

1. You want to show your team down in the polls to drive up anxiety in order to garner money and effort.

2. You don't want to want to show your team too far down in the polls as to not demoralize them into thinking their team has no shot at winning and not vote at all.

3. This strategy worked to great effect in 2022 when polling in purple states showed republicans leading, but then Dems pulled out the victory in the election.

Seems plausible, but the only thing is that Harris' recent flurry of blundering interviews seems to signal her campaign is extremely worried.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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#New General election poll - Pennsylvania

🔴 Trump 49% (+1)
🔵 Harris 48%

Tipp #A+ - 800 LV - 10/9

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 10, 2024

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And that one looks to be considered an A+ rated polling firm!

Walz has been saying some dumb stuff lately too…I'm sure that isn't helping her polling…

For those that keep citing Nate Silver's "model" this is the kind of stuff he does

NATE SILVER: "You should mostly ignore internal polls."

"For instance, the Trump campaign released a series of internal polls on Thursday. Here are the raw numbers, then how they entered the model after the adjustments we make:"

Only GA/AZ produced DJT leads in his model. pic.twitter.com/rj2vLKN8rN

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 10, 2024

So he just scrutinizes other polls but fails to have his own? I don't understand the purpose of fixing someone else's polls but not explaining what was fixed

ttha_aggie_09 said:

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So he just scrutinizes other polls but fails to have his own? I don't understand the purpose of fixing someone else's polls but not explaining what was fixed

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I believe he explains his methodology enough to get the gist. I don't think it's useful though. Not clear to me that it's any better than RCP average from a state-by-state standpoint. The simulation part of the modeling can be interesting (modeling different turnout scenarios, etc.) but still not very useful.

Thanks for the clarification!

Decision Desk HQ Senate Forecast (10/10):

Probabilities:
🟥 Republicans: 72% (+1 since last week)
🟦 Democrats: 28%

Senate Seat Forecast:
🟥 Republicans: 51
🟦 Democrats: 48
🟨 Tossups: 1

Average Seat Projection:
🟥 Republicans: 52
🟦 Democrats: 48

Key Races:
🟨 Ohio: 57%…

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) October 10, 2024

Thx. Baldwin and Slotkin don't look like they are 70% confident/probable to win to me, but it's interesting they would claim that.

Noticed Insider Adv. has Trump ahead now in Michigan too: if he takes Michigan Slotkin must be around a coin flip, imho. RCP has Slotkin up 1.9.

#New General election poll

Michigan
🔴 Trump 48%
🔵 Harris 46%

Wisconsin
🔴 Trump 48%
🔵 Harris 48%

Insider advantage #B - LV - 10/9

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 10, 2024

#New General election poll - Pennsylvania

🔴 Trump 49% (+1)
🔵 Harris 48%

Tipp #A+ - 800 LV - 10/9

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 10, 2024

Revised 3 election chart from @Mark_R_Mitchell pic.twitter.com/y3aSejwt9b

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) October 10, 2024

This is actually great:

🚨FINAL 2024 NATIONAL POLL🚨
Pew Research Center

🟦 Harris 48% [+1]
🟥 Trump 47%

🟨Final 2020: Biden+10 [6 point miss]
🟨 Final 2016: Clinton+7 [5 point miss]

— America First Insight (@AF_Insight) October 10, 2024

Nah.
The Hispanic gap has gone from 38 to 32 to 16 over the last eight years. That will eventually swing Republican. Also younger people have been voting Democrat forever. They just switch the older they get. The huge advantage on 18 to 29 year olds does not exist when that same cohort gets to be 40+.

And now….for the most insane poll ever

#New @WSJ General Election poll - Swing State's

Arizona - 🔵 Harris +2
Georgia - 🔵 Harris +2
Michigan - 🔵 Harris +2
Nevada - 🔴 Trump +6
N. Carolina - 🟡 Tie
Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
Wisconsin - 🟡 Tie

WSJ #B - RV - 10/8

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 11, 2024

Two points underwater in Az, Ga, Mi.

SIX points up in NV

1 up in PA

Tied in N Carolina and Wisconsin

I do see a scenario where he loses Georgia but wins all three rust belt states.

We literally just saw polls yesterday where he was down big in Nevada and up in the others. These ****ing polls are a joke!