Muh Polls

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will25u
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9:45p, 10/9/24
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10:58p, 10/9/24
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11:05p, 10/9/24
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11:08p, 10/9/24
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11:16p, 10/9/24
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dreyOO
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12:22a, 10/10/24
The one thing I'm curious about with perceived "momentum" in the polls like Trump seems to be building is around influencing the undecideds.

Anybody know if there's such a thing as those folks breaking for the "winning team" or feeling less guilty about a Trump poll since it's becoming more popular? Not sure if there's a way to model that based off previous polling data.
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nortex97
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In reply to will25u • 4:35a, 10/10/24
AG
Halperin is very good. Is this in fact a real leak? I have no idea.





On yesterday's daily;
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ts5641
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In reply to nortex97 • 5:38a, 10/10/24
What the hell is the deal with Nevada?
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nortex97
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In reply to ts5641 • 5:42a, 10/10/24
AG
Californians, as with Colorado.
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nortex97
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6:02a, 10/10/24
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nortex97
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6:32a, 10/10/24
AG
Yet another market indicia:



Quote:
This lead marks the first time since the recent debate that Republicans have taken the edge in these investment markets, underscoring the financial sector's confidence in a potential Trump comeback.

This is particularly significant because investment baskets like these are designed to capture where markets think political winds are truly blowing, often reflecting broader economic outlooks tied to anticipated policy changes.

The "Republican Victory" basket, tracking sectors set to benefit under GOP leadership (such as energy, defense, and traditional industries), saw a sharp surge in the last few days, suggesting a recalibration in favor of policies aimed at economic growth, job creation, and energy independenceall pillars of Trump's platform.

It's also worth noting this isn't just limited to stock markets. Betting markets, too, have shown increased odds for a Trump victory in 2024, pointing to a broader trend across various predictive platforms.

For Trump, this signals that financial experts, investors, and even everyday Americans with stakes in these markets are beginning to bet on his return to office. As confidence in his leadership grows, so does the perception that his policy direction is more aligned with the country's economic needs, especially amid ongoing inflation and energy price challenges.
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nortex97
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7:50a, 10/10/24
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FireAg
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8:39a, 10/10/24
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Some negative economic news today…inflation rose more than expected…

If the economy is the top concern of most voters, I would expect future polling to reflect more Trump momentum once the bad news gets baked in…
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Captn_Ag05
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9:45a, 10/10/24
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10:09a, 10/10/24
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10:37a, 10/10/24
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11:14a, 10/10/24
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October 10 comparison to past two election cycles. Wisconsin would by .3 for Trump if not for a month old university poll having Harris up 4.


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JDUB08AG
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11:21a, 10/10/24
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Better have been some serious model recalibration otherwise this will be a blowout.
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aggiehawg
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11:34a, 10/10/24
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In reply to aggiehawg • 11:44a, 10/10/24
AG
As much as I don't trust big media polling, I trust "internals" published by campaigns even less.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:51a, 10/10/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
As much as I don't trust big media polling, I trust "internals" published by campaigns even less.
Disagree. The tranche of internal polls doesn't just include the campaigns. It also includes PACs and very wealthy donors. They pay high dollars for very specific questions whether that is identifying voting groups and issues that matter to them, which ads will work for whom, etc.

Spicer and Halperin discussed this very subject in this morning's 2way stream.

By contrast the public polls have much less funding and are more scattershot in their approaches.
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RED AG 98
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:55a, 10/10/24
AG
Is the distinction here internals that are published / leaked or just internals period? I thought internals were generally better funded and trusted vs regular media polling. thanks!
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GoAgs11
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11:58a, 10/10/24
I dont believe these polls after they said they was going to be a red wave in 2022 mid terms
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to aggiehawg • 12:00p, 10/10/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
As much as I don't trust big media polling, I trust "internals" published by campaigns even less.
Disagree. The tranche of internal polls doesn't just include the campaigns. It also includes PACs and very wealthy donors. They pay high dollars for very specific questions whether that is identifying voting groups and issues that matter to them, which ads will work for whom, etc.

Spicer and Halperin discussed this very subject in this morning's 2way stream.

By contrast the public polls have much less funding and are more scattershot in their approaches.


Are these internal polls actually available for anyone except the people talking about them as if they've seen them? I think that's why there is so much skepticism and hesitance to believe what we're being told.
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aggiehawg
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12:00p, 10/10/24
AG


Speak of the devil.
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nortex97
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 12:09p, 10/10/24
AG
Waffledynamics said:
aggiehawg said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
As much as I don't trust big media polling, I trust "internals" published by campaigns even less.
Disagree. The tranche of internal polls doesn't just include the campaigns. It also includes PACs and very wealthy donors. They pay high dollars for very specific questions whether that is identifying voting groups and issues that matter to them, which ads will work for whom, etc.

Spicer and Halperin discussed this very subject in this morning's 2way stream.

By contrast the public polls have much less funding and are more scattershot in their approaches.
Are these internal polls actually available for anyone except the people talking about them? I think that's why there is so much skepticism and hesitance to believe what we're being told.
No, and there is much more that they don't release, of course, in terms not just of cross tabs but additional data. And those aren't all fabrizio polls, Trump uses two firms primarily. Probably only 3 or so are.

Healthy skepticism is fine without a bunch more data, but I do think this is probably the top line of what Trump scanned today/yesterday from his team. The full briefing is what would be the most fascinating, but we…won't get that. As usual…you get what you pay for.
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Science Denier
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 12:15p, 10/10/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
As much as I don't trust big media polling, I trust "internals" published by campaigns even less.
Would agree, but heels up hasn't published their poll numbers, AND she's out public speaking (failing, but doing it) when she was hiding in the basement.

Lends credence to Trump's numbers.
LOL OLD
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to aggiehawg • 12:20p, 10/10/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
As much as I don't trust big media polling, I trust "internals" published by campaigns even less.
Disagree. The tranche of internal polls doesn't just include the campaigns. It also includes PACs and very wealthy donors. They pay high dollars for very specific questions whether that is identifying voting groups and issues that matter to them, which ads will work for whom, etc.

Spicer and Halperin discussed this very subject in this morning's 2way stream.

By contrast the public polls have much less funding and are more scattershot in their approaches.
If you are putting the polls out in a memo, they aren't your true internals. They have actual internals, and this isn't them.
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nortex97
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12:31p, 10/10/24
AG
McLaughlin (which doesn't rank real high) claims all of them but I again don't think that's right:





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FTAG 2000
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 12:32p, 10/10/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
aggiehawg said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
As much as I don't trust big media polling, I trust "internals" published by campaigns even less.
Disagree. The tranche of internal polls doesn't just include the campaigns. It also includes PACs and very wealthy donors. They pay high dollars for very specific questions whether that is identifying voting groups and issues that matter to them, which ads will work for whom, etc.

Spicer and Halperin discussed this very subject in this morning's 2way stream.

By contrast the public polls have much less funding and are more scattershot in their approaches.
If you are putting the polls out in a memo, they aren't your true internals. They have actual internals, and this isn't them.

Yep.

And I think Trump campaign is fanning the flames of the Harris panic leading to her to getting on TV more.

They want her out there running her stupid mouth.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 12:34p, 10/10/24
AG
Wish they included the actual margin of victory in that table.
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FireAg
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 12:36p, 10/10/24
AG
FTAG 2000 said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
aggiehawg said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
As much as I don't trust big media polling, I trust "internals" published by campaigns even less.
Disagree. The tranche of internal polls doesn't just include the campaigns. It also includes PACs and very wealthy donors. They pay high dollars for very specific questions whether that is identifying voting groups and issues that matter to them, which ads will work for whom, etc.

Spicer and Halperin discussed this very subject in this morning's 2way stream.

By contrast the public polls have much less funding and are more scattershot in their approaches.
If you are putting the polls out in a memo, they aren't your true internals. They have actual internals, and this isn't them.

Yep.

And I think Trump campaign is fanning the flames of the Harris panic leading to her to getting on TV more.

They want her out there running her stupid mouth.

I'll be interested to see what the post-Milton polls show…

She had a very bad day yesterday…that FEMA conf call was a complete disaster…terrible look for her…

I'll be interested to see if it's reflected in the polling next week…
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Drahknor03
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 12:40p, 10/10/24
AG
Or Harris's own internals are leading to the panic. Trump bloviating on TV won't make Harris do anything, but if his bloviating is moving the needle on the internals…
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