Muh Polls

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nortex97
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6:22p, 10/8/24
AG




Good.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:40p, 10/8/24
AG
I actually think it should be lean R, but that account that is tweeting that out is fake and Cook has not changed the race.

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nortex97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 7:00p, 10/8/24
AG
Well, damn. Cook is never a leading indicator anyway.
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1836er
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 7:23p, 10/8/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
While I appreciate that at least somebody is polling Texas, given its methodology I wouldn't put much stock in this one, which, given its heavily online components, doesn't even post an official margin of error.

That being said, I don't think it is too far off, though I would expect both Trump and Cruz to do 2-3 points better than that.

While there are very few actual internals in what passes for this poll's "crosstabs," one thing that did stick out to me is that the unweighted number of responses were basically flip-flopped in terms of the actual college vs. non-college voting population of Texas.

Although they weighted the poll to account for that discrepancy, given how they likely identified and recruited their respondents, even the non-college respondents are likely a bit less Trumpy than the voters they are intended to represent.
Vance in '28
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stoneca
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8:10p, 10/8/24
Bovada now has Trump at -120 and Kamala as Even. These are the best odds I've seen since before the debate.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to stoneca • 8:19p, 10/8/24
AG

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TheBonifaceOption
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9:40p, 10/8/24
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to nortex97 • 11:14p, 10/8/24
Black males continue to get off the plantation of the DEM party. Expect a small percentage of black women too.

Also the Hispanics in PA are flocking to Trump. Big part of that areas population.

I like these new polls. Singling out actual groups
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BadMoonRisin
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11:21p, 10/8/24
AG
So, I'll ask the question:

What good do these polls serve?

Turning politics into WWE RAW?
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TAMUallen
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In reply to BadMoonRisin • 11:36p, 10/8/24
AG
BadMoonRisin said:
So, I'll ask the question:

What good do these polls serve?

Turning politics into WWE RAW?


I'd say they do have a percentage point or two point on the election effect
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BadMoonRisin
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In reply to TAMUallen • 11:45p, 10/8/24
AG
In terms of turnout?
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nortex97
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4:32a, 10/9/24
AG






Good stuff.
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Prosperdick
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:25a, 10/9/24
AG
nortex97 said:






Good stuff.
On the last Baris and Barnes podcast they discussed the lack of requests for MIB and how that helps R's not only in winning their races but that it makes rampant cheating much more difficult because there aren't thousands of paper ballots that can magically appear at 3am because they don't exist like they did in 2020.
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Captn_Ag05
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8:00a, 10/9/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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8:01a, 10/9/24
AG
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McInnis 03
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8:10a, 10/9/24
AG
I love this thread because of the plethora of information but I may never follow polls again. They're so wildly varied.
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Legal Custodian
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8:11a, 10/9/24
AG
So quick update from the battleground states according to the RCP (Real Clear Politics) Polling average:

I looked at any poll started from 9/20 or later. So the last 20 days of polling.

Pennsylvania:
Trump +1.6

Wisconsin:
Trump +.3

Michigan:
Trump +1.5

Georgia:
Trump +1

North Carolina:
Trump +.5

Nevada:
Harris +1

Arizona:
Trump +1.8
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 8:14a, 10/9/24
AG
McInnis 03 said:
I love this thread because of the plethora of information but I may never follow polls again. They're so wildly varied.


Lesson learned to perfection. Also helps to keep in mind they are all wrong.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 8:32a, 10/9/24
AG
Philip J Fry said:
McInnis 03 said:
I love this thread because of the plethora of information but I may never follow polls again. They're so wildly varied.


Lesson learned to perfection. Also helps to keep in mind they are all wrong.

Just like modeling physical phenomena in the sciences: all models are wrong, but some are useful.
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Legal Custodian
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8:45a, 10/9/24
AG
The only thing polls are good for this cycle are trends. Who knows what is right when one poll has Harris +3 vs another that has Trump +2.

But if the same poll had Harris +6 and over the course of a month it moves to Harris +4 and then Harris +2, then that is very telling. Still that operates under the assumption that they don't change their means and methods.

I've only come to trust the RCP Average right now and see the trends within it. Right now, the trend has slightly favored Trump from where it was right after the debate.

Trump very smartly declined another debate. The polls are never kind to him after a debate, the electorate loves the idea of Trump but don't like Trump himself. And I think his crassness and demeanor during a debate reminds people they don't like his personality, polls shift away from him, then after a few weeks they start to shift back because people forget and go back to policies.

This media blitz by Kamala most likely means her internal polling is telling her she needs to step it up. The exact opposite reaction of Biden 4 years ago where is internals were saying he doesn't have to campaign at all because the polls are in his favor big time.
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agsalaska
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In reply to Legal Custodian • 9:05a, 10/9/24
AG
I totally agree. I said this a few days ago that I heard a pollster on Dan Abrams radio show say that the days of polling being an exact science have long since past and now it is all about multi poll averages and trends.

The trend is clearly going in Trump's favor right now. No question

The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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1836er
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9:08a, 10/9/24
AG
Now that the newness (pro-Demicrat response bias) of the Kamala switcheroo has begun to wane, the race is settling back into its default position, where it was before the Biden debate collapse; a slight Trump lead.
Vance in '28
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Captn_Ag05
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9:11a, 10/9/24
AG
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Hungry Ojos
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:27a, 10/9/24
And after ALL of the great news posted on this last page, we still get this.

No idea what to believe.
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BTHOB
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 9:31a, 10/9/24
AG
Hungry Ojos said:
And after ALL of the great news posted on this last page, we still get this.

No idea what to believe.


It's wise not to believe ANY of it.
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:32a, 10/9/24
Sample was 530d/465ind/414R

They use mathematical weights to try to make up for the difference.
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texagbeliever
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:38a, 10/9/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
Trump up by 1.2% with F:M split of 54-46 weighting. Exit polls had 2020 at 52-48.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 9:46a, 10/9/24
AG
Hungry Ojos said:
And after ALL of the great news posted on this last page, we still get this.

No idea what to believe.

National though. Skewed by California and New York being hyper-blue.
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txags92
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In reply to 1836er • 9:46a, 10/9/24
AG
Thank you. This is a great post explaining how pollsters can get it wrong despite knowing that their sample is not representative and trying to correct it with weighting. Thanks for the detailed explanation.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 9:47a, 10/9/24
AG
AtticusMatlock said:
Sample was 530d/465ind/414R

They use mathematical weights to try to make up for the difference.
Also like to hide Dems in the Indy column.
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1836er
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 10:31a, 10/9/24
AG
AtticusMatlock said:
Sample was 530d/465ind/414R

They use mathematical weights to try to make up for the difference.


Yep, more evidence that they still can't (or won't) reach the more Trumpy parts of the electorate.

A good sample should have about 3% more Republicans than Democrats.
Vance in '28
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Captn_Ag05
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11:03a, 10/9/24
AG
This would actually be a slight improvement for Trump

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FireAg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:17a, 10/9/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
This would actually be a slight improvement for Trump


It baffles me that Jews vote for the party that hates Jews…
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MAROON
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In reply to FireAg • 11:19a, 10/9/24
AG
vast vast majority are cultural only - they have no tie to their orthodox brothers
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sam callahan
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11:21a, 10/9/24
My favorite thing about this thread is that every poll that looks better for Kamala, my brain automatically discounts because it's not what I want.

I am aware of this psychological phenomenon and it still happens. I can't help but ponder how many people are less self aware and so easily manipulated.
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