aw08 said:

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Polymarket betting odds shot up big time the last few hours for Trump

54-46 trump

Was tied a few days ago

Anyone know what caused the odds to go virtual earlier today ?

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FEMA

aw08 said:

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Polymarket betting odds shot up big time the last few hours for Trump

54-46 trump

Was tied a few days ago

Anyone know what caused the odds to go virtual earlier today ?

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Bets coming in on Trump.

samurai_science said:

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aw08 said:

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Polymarket betting odds shot up big time the last few hours for Trump

54-46 trump

Was tied a few days ago

Anyone know what caused the odds to go virtual earlier today ?

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FEMA

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Correct, along with the knowledge the response to Milton will also be a disinterested disaster from the administration/federal level. There's a reason too folks like Morning Consult won't even release a poll right now. They need to start trending toward reality but that is not what their paymasters/managers want to put out.

The 'right wing vs. blue polls' debate is sort of silly but, yet again, trends matter (5 minutes or so in, Rich Baris' latest 'what are the odds' livestream today, which won't embed quite right):

https://www.youtube.com/live/hwRZ5Jm0uIQ

And that Rasmussen Reports daily up above is weighted D+2 for goodness sakes (reflecting 2020 partisan split I guess), and is still T+5 today, and up to a rolling average of 4.

Movement started occurring this weekend with the Butler rally and "leaks" that Trump is leading by 1-2 points in PA internals.

Pay no attention to Silver's "model." It's not a model. He just looks at others' polls and draws his own "conclusions" for narrative building purposes, and to maintain interest in his business.

In order to understand the actual state of the race, it is important to keep in mind that the supposedly "high quality" media/university polls over the last two presidential elections consistently polled, both in the national polls and in the swing state polling, 4-6 (or worse) points higher for the Democratic candidates than the actual election results.

1) If we are to assume that the current (2024) media/university polls are as comparably biased in favor of the Democratic candidate as they were in 2016 and 2020, expect Trump to perform at least 4 points better in the voting than in their current polling. If this is the case, for example, what Harris +2 in a poll actually means is Trump +2, a tie means Trump +4, and Trump +2 means Trump +6. An election that looks like this is a Trump blowout in the Electoral College.

2) Now, it is possible, on the other hand, though I would argue unlikely, that the media/university polling firms have magically "learned" since 2016/2020 how to properly poll low propensity working class voters in the Sun Belt and Rust Belt, and that their polls this time around are, therefore, more accurate reflections of reality. I do no think this is the case because I believe their polls are biased in favor of the Democrats on purpose for narrative building purposes, but I am willing to entertain the possibility.

3) Just for the sake of argument, however, let's say that the media/university polls that say Harris +1, Harris +2, or even Harris +3 nationally are, somehow, magically, accurate this time. What does that actually mean for the state of the race, especially considering that this is the first presidential election since the last census, which is a slightly more favorable map for the Republicans than 2016/2020?

4) Harris +1 equals a bigger Trump victory in the Electoral College compared to 2016. Harris +2 equals a Trump victory in the Electoral College slightly bigger than 2016. Harris +3 equals a very close election slight advantage Trump, and Harris +4 equals a very close election slight advantage Harris. The last example (Harris +4) is basically a repeat of 2020; an election Biden won by 40,000 ballots in three states, under a more favorable Democrat map.

5) In order for Harris to have an even chance of winning the election, she probably needs a 3.5% to 4% lead in the national popular vote at minimum, and it could be more than that, because Trump is not going to do worse in the swing states than he does in the national popular vote. If the last two presidential elections are anything to go by, Trump will do BETTER in the swing states than he does in the national popular vote.

What the heck is up with New Hampshire, that state is really tough to gauge Trump there. Almost won in 2016 then blowout in 2020, polls not really close this election for Trump. Hard state to pin down. Nevada too

2023NCAggies said:

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What the heck is up with New Hampshire, that state is really tough to gauge Trump there. Almost won in 2016 then blowout in 2020, polls not really close this election for Trump. Hard state to pin down. Nevada too

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Basically, New Hampshire is like a suburb of Boston from a media market perspective.

[Not going to derail this thread on polls with posts about voter fraud. And when responding to a long post, please use the "respond without quote" feature to avoid cluttering the page for readers. Thanks -- Staff]

2023NCAggies said:

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What the heck is up with New Hampshire, that state is really tough to gauge Trump there. Almost won in 2016 then blowout in 2020, polls not really close this election for Trump. Hard state to pin down. Nevada too

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I think a lot of people in NH really hated Hillary Clinton and that is part of the reason Trump ran well there in 2016. He has struggled in NH since, even in the Republican primary earlier this year. I would like to see a few more polls out of there before completely writing it off, but polling numbers we have seen have not given any indication it will be competitive enough for either candidate to spend any time or resources there.

#New General election poll - Michigan

🔵 Harris 47% (+3)
🔴 Trump 44%

Last poll - 🔴 Trump +1

Glengariff #C - 600 LV - 10/4

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 7, 2024

[Hand counting of ballets is not poll related. Keep it to a discussion on polls. Thanks -- Staff]

And just as a friendly neighborhood reminder about the polls... those crappy media/university polls that nate rates so highly on his fake model were the most inaccurate polls in the 2020 presidential race.

And not only were they off by a minimum or 4, 5, 6, 7, or even 8 points, they were all literally off by these outside-the-margin errors in favor of Biden.

Meanwhile, the most accurate polls, the ones that nate has either removed from his list altogether or downgraded to weight them less in his fake model because either they are supposedly not "high quality" or are deemed "too Republican," were the ones that all were closest to the actual results... like Atlas, Trafalgar, Rasmussen Reports, and InsiderAdvantage.

.@NateSilver538 weighs @RedfieldWilton pollsmore heavily in his “model” than @atlas_intel or @trafalgar_group.

😂.

Even the company he founded (@FiveThirtyEight) admits Redfield stinks.

When Nates says “high quality,” he actually means “polls that produce results I like.” pic.twitter.com/nJHgmMWfqs

— David Giglio (@DavidGiglioCA) October 7, 2024

aggiehawg said:

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[Hand counting of ballets is not poll related. Keep it to a discussion on polls. Thanks -- Staff]

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I know the mods have deleted some of my posts in the past but the fact remains that I've been an Ipsos survey pollster for over 3 years and in that time I've received MANY surveys/polls on the election in 2022 as well as this election when it was Biden/Trump.

Since Kamala has been installed as the Democratic nominee I've received exactly ZERO polls/surveys regarding the election. They know I voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 because the surveys I've taken asked me that but so far ZERO polls/surveys since Harris replaced Biden.

We're now less than a month out and I'm still waiting for them to survey me. They even surveyed my 15 year old son about the election, which why not, he can't vote so let's ask him!!

I know this is anecdotal but it seems very strange that they have stopped polling me completely.

Just take a look at the data (previous post) from 2020, and you'll see that IPSOS was 5.03 points too bullish for Biden.

How are they going to engineer a Harris +5 (to drive a narrative), if they have to keep including as many Trump voters in their sample?

#NEW PENNSYLVANIA poll

🔴 Trump: 50% (+4)
🔵 Harris: 46%
🟢 Other: 3%
🟡 Undecided: 1%

Democracy Institute | Oct. 2-3 | N=400LV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 7, 2024

will25u said:

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#NEW PENNSYLVANIA poll

🔴 Trump: 50% (+4)
🔵 Harris: 46%
🟢 Other: 3%
🟡 Undecided: 1%

Democracy Institute | Oct. 2-3 | N=400LV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 7, 2024

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With a name like that, Dem pollster?

https://t.co/YbIEzmS8ZS pic.twitter.com/DPWATQFL0x

— Mostly Peaceful Memes (@MostlyPeacefull) October 8, 2024

I'm starting to see and hear a little desperation within Kamala.

This would round out to Trump winning NPAs by about 10 points in Florida, under my model, with a slight GOP turnout advantage (as in, they turn out a higher percent of their own voters than the Democrats do).

Most definitely plausible.

Would mean Rick Scott+8-9 minimum. https://t.co/BHJxCJbieN

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 8, 2024

#NEW NATIONAL poll

🔵 Harris: 47% (+2) [-3]
🔴 Trump: 45% [+1]

[+/- from last poll]

Ipsos | Oct. 4-7 | N= 969LV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 8, 2024

The national NYT poll as well, if correcting for their continuous misses in the Dem direction of around 4 or 5, would also put him ahead nationally;

Donald Trump Truth Social 04:12 PM EST 10/07/24 @realDonaldTrump pic.twitter.com/MXFrgqibBd

— Donald J. Trump Posts From His Truth Social (@TrumpDailyPosts) October 7, 2024

Trump promoting school choice might have an impact on suburban women per, of all things, morning consult data?

Quote:

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Former President Donald Trump promoted school choice at his campaign stop in deep-blue Milwaukee last week. This was a smart move.

Milwaukee is home to the longest-standing modern-day private school-choice initiative in the country. About 30,000 students benefit from the program, which allows their taxpayer-funded education dollars to follow them to the public or private school of their family's choosing.

The initiative has been a success based on demand, and research shows improvements in test scores, college enrollment, and even crime reduction. Tens of thousands of families across the rest of the state also benefit from various private school-choice options.

The latest Morning Consult polling finds that nearly three-quarters of Wisconsin school parents support private school choice in the form of education savings accounts.

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WALL STREET JOURNAL: Democrats have privately grown worried about Kamala Harris’s standing among working-class voters in the crucial “blue wall” states.

An internal poll done by Democrat Tammy Baldwin’s Senate campaign last week showed Harris down by 3 percentage points in…

— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) October 8, 2024

TheBonifaceOption said:

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WALL STREET JOURNAL: Democrats have privately grown worried about Kamala Harris’s standing among working-class voters in the crucial “blue wall” states.

An internal poll done by Democrat Tammy Baldwin’s Senate campaign last week showed Harris down by 3 percentage points in…

— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) October 8, 2024

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No wonder Tammy didn't attend Harris' astro turfed rally, she wants to distance herself from her...actually a savvy move.

The polling trends all seem to be moving toward a Trump victory in November…pending the standard "October surprise", of course…

🚨 BREAKING: Donald Trump leads by Wisconsin by 3 points, Democratic internal polling shows (WSJ)

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 8, 2024

FireAg said:

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The polling trends all seem to be moving toward a Trump victory in November…pending the standard "October surprise", of course…

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There is no October surprise, unless it is from Rs. DEMs have tried everything on Trump, he is bullet proof right now. Surprised by the Wisconsin news, that was the state I was most worried about. Them and Michigan and they are both trending Trump

FireAg said:

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The polling trends all seem to be moving toward a Trump victory in November…pending the standard "October surprise", of course…

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I don't know. If north Carolina's issues cause significant voting issues for the heavily majority trump areas, he could very well lose that state as it was already tight.

Losing north Carolina means trump must win Arizona, and two rust belt states, or win PA and both Nevada and Arizona.

And if has to win Georgia no matter what.

Per usual, it's gonna come down to a relatively few votes in a relatively few districts in about 4 states

2023NCAggies said:

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FireAg said:

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The polling trends all seem to be moving toward a Trump victory in November…pending the standard "October surprise", of course…

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There is no October surprise, unless it is from Rs. DEMs have tried everything on Trump, he is bullet proof right now. Surprised by the Wisconsin news, that was the state I was most worried about

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I'm curious on which internal polls are showing that. Halperin had an R and D internal pollers on a call recently who both gave the slight edge to Harris at this time.

Most likely this is either congressional internal polling or an activist group.

2023NCAggies said:

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FireAg said:

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The polling trends all seem to be moving toward a Trump victory in November…pending the standard "October surprise", of course…

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There is no October surprise, unless it is from Rs. DEMs have tried everything on Trump, he is bullet proof right now. Surprised by the Wisconsin news, that was the state I was most worried about. Them and Michigan and they are both trending Trump

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I really think the sheep have finally become deaf to the left's and msm attacks on Trump. They tried Steele again yesterday and won't quit trying because they're just that stupid.

To make it poll related, seems everytime they try another attack, his popularity goes up. They have nothing to offer policy wise, so it's hate Trump or nothing.

#New General election poll - Nevada

🔴 Trump 49%
🔵 Harris 49%

RMG #C - 782 LV - 10/3

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 8, 2024

#New @nytimes General election poll - Texas

🔴 Trump 50% (+6)
🔵 Harris 44%

Siena #A - 617 LV - 10/6

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 8, 2024

#New @nytimes General election poll

🔵 Harris 49% (+3)
🔴 Trump 46%

Last poll - 🟡 Tie

Siena #A - 3,385 LV - 10/6

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 8, 2024

#New General election poll

🔵 Harris 51% (+6)
🔴 Trump 45%

Last poll - 🔵 Harris +5

Morning Consult #C - 11,353 LV - 10/6

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 8, 2024

#New General election poll - Arizona

🔵 Harris 49% (+1)
🔴 Trump 48%

Senate
🔵 Gallego 51% (+12)
🔴 Lake 39%

Socal #N/A - LV - 10/7

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 8, 2024

#New General election poll - Arizona

🔵 Harris 47% (+1)
🔴 Trump 46%

Senate
🔵 Gallego 48% (+6)
🔴 Lake 42%

National research #B - 600 LV - 9/29

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 8, 2024

#NEW NATIONAL poll

🔵 Harris: 48% (+2)
🔴 Trump: 46%
🟡 Undecided: 4%

Last poll: Harris+2

Redfield & Wilton | Oct. 6 | N=2,300LV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 8, 2024

Harris is not ahead. Those polls crack me up.