Muh Polls

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Ag with kids
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In reply to Rockdoc • 8:22p, 9/12/24
AG
Rockdoc said:
Hard to believe Harris went down 1 after the debate.
One of the major things she had to do was introduce herself and explain her policies.

She did NOT do that. Nobody knows anymore about her policies now than they did last week.

Trump didn't have to do that. Everyone knows where Trump stands on pretty much everything. PLUS, everyone knows he can be a buffoon. So, he had a low bar to jump over (even though he still managed to trip over it a bit).

She may have won the debate, but she didn't do the MAJOR thing she had to do.
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Ag with kids
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 8:33p, 9/12/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
First YouGov post debate poll




These numbers don't match. The Xeet shows that the last poll (pre-debate) was Trump +2.

Then the pic shows that before and after it was Harris +1.

Which is correct?
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Ag with kids • 9:29p, 9/12/24
AG
Their last published poll was Trump plus two. For the sample published today, they asked them before and after the debate what their intentions were. Not the same panel as the Trump plus two they published in August.
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Captn_Ag05
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9:36p, 9/12/24
AG
Met with a RNC official tonight and discussed senate races. Increasing confidence that Republicans will have a minimum 52 (West Virginia, Montana, Ohio).

Nevada and Michigan are the races that need the most money and most likely to flip. Republicans need to pick up one more to avoid break offs from Collins and Murkowski if there is a Kamala presidency.
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Ag with kids
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:42p, 9/12/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Their last published poll was Trump plus two. For the sample published today, they asked them before and after the debate what their intentions were. Not the same panel as the Trump plus two they published in August.
Fair enough...

But, kind of confusing when you posted them both together.

I took them as both related when they weren't.
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2004FIGHTINTXAG
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:46p, 9/12/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
Met with a RNC official tonight and discussed senate races. Increasing confidence that Republicans will have a minimum 52 (West Virginia, Montana, Ohio).

Nevada and Michigan are the races that need the most money and most likely to flip. Republicans need to pick up one more to avoid break offs from Collins and Murkowski if there is a Kamala presidency.

They mention any post debate reflections?
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to 2004FIGHTINTXAG • 10:01p, 9/12/24
AG
Not thrilled with it, but party has made significant gains in registrations in multiple swing states and have a much improved turn out effort. They expect that it will overwhelm Democrats who aren't able to drive up crazy mail in returns like in 2020. Also a huge number of poll watchers and lawyers have been assembled for most states. They are still looking for more if you want to get involved!

Overall, I felt really good after the conversation. The only thing that concerned me a little bit was the lack of confidence they had about the Cruz race. They fully expect Cruz to win, but could be a surprisingly small margin.
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will25u
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10:24p, 9/12/24
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Jack Boyette
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:35p, 9/12/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
Not thrilled with it, but party has made significant gains in registrations in multiple swing states and have a much improved turn out effort. They expect that it will overwhelm Democrats who aren't able to drive up crazy mail in returns like in 2020. Also a huge number of poll watchers and lawyers have been assembled for most states. They are still looking for more if you want to get involved!

Overall, I felt really good after the conversation. The only thing that concerned me a little bit was the lack of confidence they had about the Cruz race. They fully expect Cruz to win, but could be a surprisingly small margin.


I do. How? Lawyer here.
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dreyOO
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:04p, 9/12/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
Also a huge number of poll watchers and lawyers have been assembled for most states.

Overall, I felt really good after the conversation. The only thing that concerned me a little bit was the lack of confidence they had about the Cruz race. They fully expect Cruz to win, but could be a surprisingly small margin.
That's awesome. That plus challenging as many stupid laws in advance as possible.

What's the deal with Cruz? I don't live in Houston anymore, but I had read that he's not advertising much. That doesn't make any sense, but I'm not in the target market so I can't tell what's up.
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MarkTwain
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11:11p, 9/12/24
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jt2hunt
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In reply to MarkTwain • 11:45p, 9/12/24
AG
Brutal for dems

Economy trumps debate
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nortex97
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5:27a, 9/13/24
AG
CAIR is a hate group, and muslims cannot be believed in general, yet this is interesting to the extent it is real;
Quote:
  • Battleground States: Dr. Stein is leading Harris in Arizona (35%) Michigan (40%) and Wisconsin (44%), while Harris leads Stein in Georgia (43%) and Pennsylvania (37%). Trump's highest support is observed in Nevada (27%), just ahead of Harris (26%).
  • Gender: Kamala Harris leads among Muslim male voters with 29%, while Dr. Jill Stein holds a stronger position among Muslim women at 34%. Donald Trump has similar levels of support among men (14%) and women (10%). Additionally, a higher proportion of men (17%) are undecided compared to women (16%).
  • Racial Demographics: Kamala Harris is supported by 55.3% of Black Muslim voters, 28% of Asian Muslims, and 25.6% of White, Arab, and Turkic Muslims. Dr. Jill Stein is supported by 32.7% of White, Arab, and Turkic Muslim voters, 25.7% of Asian Muslims, and 11.2% of Black Muslim voters. Donald Trump is supported by 12.8% of White, Arab, and Turkic Muslims, 12.6% of Asian Muslims, and 9.8% of Black Muslim voters.
Note: Muslim voters, pre-debate.

Some other absurdities/notes from yesterday's polls/results noted:




The good POTUS figures for MI were noted already, but great to see Rogers only down 1 as well;
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Jack Boyette • 7:46a, 9/13/24
AG
Jack Boyette said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Not thrilled with it, but party has made significant gains in registrations in multiple swing states and have a much improved turn out effort. They expect that it will overwhelm Democrats who aren't able to drive up crazy mail in returns like in 2020. Also a huge number of poll watchers and lawyers have been assembled for most states. They are still looking for more if you want to get involved!

Overall, I felt really good after the conversation. The only thing that concerned me a little bit was the lack of confidence they had about the Cruz race. They fully expect Cruz to win, but could be a surprisingly small margin.


I do. How? Lawyer here.


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Captn_Ag05
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8:56a, 9/13/24
AG
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oh no
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10:43a, 9/13/24
AG
This guy discussing Kamala's polling

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Silvertaps
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In reply to oh no • 11:06a, 9/13/24
AG
oh no said:
This guy discussing Kamala's polling

This is where I get lost. The polling seems erratic depending on where it's coming from. What polls are being referenced that Harris is falling so short to create this kind of panic?
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oh no
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In reply to Silvertaps • 11:12a, 9/13/24
AG
I think even the polls discussed on this thread where Kamala is leading, she's leading by less in these crosstabs than Biden and Hillary were. Should be concerning for the communist party and the Marxist regime that is installing her.
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agsalaska
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In reply to Silvertaps • 11:13a, 9/13/24
AG
To be clear, that's Ryan Girdusky. He is a Republican or at least has been employed by several Republicans as a strategist. My guess is he is seeing internal polling.

He is a smart guy by the way. He is independent of the corporate media.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to oh no • 11:15a, 9/13/24
oh no said:
This guy discussing Kamala's polling

Sounds like me on here, except I try to calm yall down, he is likely making them freaking out

Told yall to look at the breakdowns, they do not match the result.

She is losing and even a good debate performance isn't helping her much. And Trump is pushing full steam ahead announcing big tax breaks for overtime, tips, SS.

Trump said he will not debate again, that is going to make Harris go unhinged if her numbers do not rise. It is going to be funny watching them beg for a debate
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agsalaska
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 11:26a, 9/13/24
AG
I feel like you are right.

A lot of times cross tabs can just be statistical noise. But it is happening over and over again.

I was of the opinion and still am that in a classroom sense she won the debate but in a political sense she tied, maybe. Looks like that may be playing out.

One thing I thought when watching her demeanor in the debate was that very elitist smile she was giving Trump. That's not going to get a black guy in Atlanta or a Muslim man in Minneapolis to vote for you.
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Captn_Ag05
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11:43a, 9/13/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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11:47a, 9/13/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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12:37p, 9/13/24
AG
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oh no
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 2:03p, 9/13/24
AG
I like it. ...is Quantus Polls & News one that is any good?
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 2:06p, 9/13/24
[Stop cluttering up this thread with your personal opinions on the election that are not directly related to polls. They're a derail and inconsiderate to other posters. This one is for posters trying to understand and discuss polls and trends. We've removed several of your derails. Take those to a different thread. Next one will result in a ban -- Staff]
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rathAG05
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 2:12p, 9/13/24
AG
He did lose the debate. It appears however, that Kamala isn't moving the needle for indies though, which is a welcome development.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to oh no • 2:29p, 9/13/24
AG
oh no said:
I like it. ...is Quantus Polls & News one that is any good?
It is a Republican pollster but hopefully they keep their bias out of their polling.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to agsalaska • 3:19p, 9/13/24
agsalaska said:
I feel like you are right.

A lot of times cross tabs can just be statistical noise. But it is happening over and over again.

I was of the opinion and still am that in a classroom sense she won the debate but in a political sense she tied, maybe. Looks like that may be playing out.

One thing I thought when watching her demeanor in the debate was that very elitist smile she was giving Trump. That's not going to get a black guy in Atlanta or a Muslim man in Minneapolis to vote for you.
I figured the debate would have bumped her average at least a point, but it might not do that at all. The longer the debate has been out there the worse her performance seems to pulse.

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Captn_Ag05
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5:49p, 9/13/24
AG
Lots of polls out today

National







Texas





New Hampshire


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Silvertaps
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 6:37p, 9/13/24
AG

NH is such a strange state…lot of conservative yellow dog democrats
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GenericAggie
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In reply to Silvertaps • 6:40p, 9/13/24
AG
There is no way Cruz is only leading by 4
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SA68AG
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7:34p, 9/13/24
AG
Looks like a 1-2 point bump for Harris. Could have been worse.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to GenericAggie • 7:39p, 9/13/24
AG
GenericAggie said:
There is no way Cruz is only leading by 4
He's not running any ads and is letting an extreme Democrat pretend to be conservative.

Yes, I believe it's close, and Cruz needs to campaign.

Wtf is the Republican Party doing?
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to GenericAggie • 9:20p, 9/13/24
AG
GenericAggie said:
There is no way Cruz is only leading by 4


Cruz is up 5, Trump up 9 in Cruz campaign internals.
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