normalhorn said:

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That's a concern I have when looking at polls.
Other than being accurate with their final polls before the election, what incentive does a polling company have to accurately and honestly evaluate their findings?
It seems the industry is rife for manipulation that could be used to affect voter turnout

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Nothing. They make money by getting media to pay them to keep it close to encourage media expenditure. It is why the DNC and RNC have their own polling. They have been tricked into spending that they didn't need to do by pollsters.

Some organizations like Fox News and ABC have changed the firm that they use to poll and others have said that they have changed their methodology to address underpolling for Trump the last two cycles. I am skeptical. But, we won't know until the election is over.

If the rejection rate to participate in polls from polling companies is 90%, how do we really know what these polls mean?

Silvertaps said:

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Please catch me up on how to read election polls in 2024.
My confidence in polling took a hit after the 2020 general election with so many of them favorable to Trump over Biden (per state and overall). What has changed in gathering of information (if any)? Seems a lot of the polling can be manipulated based on whose doing it without any accountability.

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2020 was an outlier due to Covid. 30% more Americans voted because they spammed the entire country with ballots. There was no way to accurately gauge turnout during the polling.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Some organizations like Fox News and ABC have changed the firm that they use to poll and others have said that they have changed their methodology to address underpolling for Trump the last two cycles. I am skeptical. But, we won't know until the election is over.

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Yea they are certainly trying.

I heard one pollster say the other day that the age of 1-2 points in polling is over. Now it's the 5-10 range. I don't think he actually meant 10, but his point was valid.

It makes aggregation much more important today and individual polls much less.

Legal Custodian said:

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Silvertaps said:

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Please catch me up on how to read election polls in 2024.
My confidence in polling took a hit after the 2020 general election with so many of them favorable to Trump over Biden (per state and overall). What has changed in gathering of information (if any)? Seems a lot of the polling can be manipulated based on whose doing it without any accountability.

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Polling was not favorable to Trump in 2020. Polling was off by 3.5% from the RCP Average to actual. Biden was up 7% in the two weeks before election and finished at +4.5%. Polling has underestimated Trump's support in both 2016 and 2020.

I detailed this before in the thread but the main point is if they average the same polling skew that they've had then Kamala's lead goes from 1.1% right now to Trump +.8%. If Trump gets that, then it's an epic landslide.

If Kamala gets the same bump that Biden got after the first debate in 2020 of 3%, then it gets interesting.

The absolute biggest takeaway is that polling at this point in 2020 had Biden +8.0%. Right now it's 1.1% in favor of Harris. That's a 6.9% shift towards Trump in support. That is absolutely huge.

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And that would be without any Trump underestimating.

The main question is whether the polling companies have finally figured out how to factor in Trump's support. If they have, then Trump is still on path to win only being down 1.1% right now. If they've gone completely in the other direction then he's in trouble. But with the breakdowns of these polls, it doesn't look like they are compensating too much by what the spread is between D/R/I.

Post-debate poll by Reuters/Ipsos

🟦 Harris: 47% [+2]
🟥 Trump: 42% [+1]

[+/- change vs 8/21-28]
——
Who won the debate? (debate watchers)

Harris: 53%
Trump: 24%
No one: 23%

Among Republicans
Trump: 53%
No one: 31%
Harris: 14%
——
#17 (2.8/3.0) | 9/11-12 | 1,405 RV | ±3%… pic.twitter.com/W8XQZWV5Wi

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 12, 2024

Delayed, but here's the daily data. pic.twitter.com/dxdZvBggcV

— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@Mark_R_Mitchell) September 12, 2024

Rasmussen's first night of the tracking poll post debate showed a tie. Trump won the night before by 5 and the night before that was also a tie.

So this is the first full post-debate poll. It shows Harris gained +1 compared to the previous poll that Reuters did.

It will depend if other polls mirror this spread (Kamala +5%) or if it mirrors just the gain (Kamala +1%). If polls start to show Kamala +5% it'll be bad news for Trump. If they show Kamala only got 1% from the debate in which the overwhelming consensus was that she won, that ain't good news for her.

It would mean that the electorate is way more focused on the issues as opposed to personalities, imo.

normalhorn said:

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That's a concern I have when looking at polls.
Other than being accurate with their final polls before the election, what incentive does a polling company have to accurately and honestly evaluate their findings?
It seems the industry is rife for manipulation that could be used to affect voter turnout

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Polls are Persuasion

"Confidential memo" from the Trump campaign (that is all over Twitter) regarding polling in the seven battleground states. I wouldn't say that it is positive that "leaked" internals show the race tied as "leaked" intervals tend to paint a rosier picture than reality.

Hard to believe Harris went down 1 after the debate.

Post-debate poll by Morning Consult

🟦 Harris: 50%
🟥 Trump: 45%
——
Pre-debate - 🔵 Harris +3
Debate day - 🔵 Harris +4
Post-debate - 🔵 Harris +5

#116 (1.8/3.0) | 3,204 LV | ±3%https://t.co/0o0F2eEjwq pic.twitter.com/DKAEQzhvoZ

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 12, 2024

Rockdoc said:

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Hard to believe Harris went down 1 after the debate.

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See this is the thing. I didn't think trump did well. But all that matters is how independents viewed him. This isn't their first rodeo with him. Nothing that happened on Tuesday was a surprise to anybody. I don't know what they are looking for but it's not unfathomable for to have either liked what he said, didn't like what she said, or turned off by the moderation.

JDUB08AG said:

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Rockdoc said:

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Hard to believe Harris went down 1 after the debate.

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See this is the thing. I didn't think trump did well. But all that matters is how independents viewed him. This isn't their first rodeo with him. Nothing that happened on Tuesday was a surprise to anybody. I don't know what they are looking for but it's not unfathomable for to have either liked what he said, didn't like what she said, or turned off by the moderation.

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Agreed. I think it's a combination of independents want Trump, and a disgust of the ambush.

Alarm bells need to be ringing from that one. It's one of three new polls showing Harris up with enough to win.

JDUB08AG said:

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Rockdoc said:

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Hard to believe Harris went down 1 after the debate.

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See this is the thing. I didn't think trump did well. But all that matters is how independents viewed him. This isn't their first rodeo with him. Nothing that happened on Tuesday was a surprise to anybody. I don't know what they are looking for but it's not unfathomable for to have either liked what he said, didn't like what she said, or turned off by the moderation.

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You are wrong on this " I didn't think trump did well. "

Trump did well enough. He was never going to trounce her as everyone wanted, it was 1-3, it was impossible for that to occur with the moderators. However, what he did do is force her to lie on virtually ALL of her answers and she's getting call out for that, even by CNN.

HowdyTexasAggies said:

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JDUB08AG said:

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Rockdoc said:

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Hard to believe Harris went down 1 after the debate.

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See this is the thing. I didn't think trump did well. But all that matters is how independents viewed him. This isn't their first rodeo with him. Nothing that happened on Tuesday was a surprise to anybody. I don't know what they are looking for but it's not unfathomable for to have either liked what he said, didn't like what she said, or turned off by the moderation.

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You are wrong on this " I didn't think trump did well. "

Trump did well enough. He was never going to trounce her as everyone wanted, it was 1-3, it was impossible for that to occur with the moderators. However, what he did do is force her to lie on virtually ALL of her answers and she's getting call out for that, even by CNN.

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Just because I don't think he did well doesn't mean I don't think he did enough to help himself. Both can be true.

I'm on the same page as that.

I thought he was pretty bad. I thought she did exactly what she set out to do.

Question is will she gain in the polls and I kind of doubt it. We will see.

I don't think it should be a surprise that there is a movement towards her in these first round of polls. I think it will be settle back in by the end of the month.

You all think he did bad because for whatever reason you are not listening to what I pointed out. He drew her offsides the entire night, she lied continually and its now coming out in the aftermath.

Waffledynamics said:

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Alarm bells need to be ringing from that one. It's one of three new polls showing Harris up with enough to win.

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Alarm because of a Morning Insult poll? Nah. The toilet paper you flushed this morning holds more respect than this outlet.

The Morning Compost poll was off by 4 in 2020.

Why? They used likely voters. Also, Reuters/Ipsos and NYP show bad numbers, too.

I don't think that one is a 'leak' or anything, they put it on his campaign website.

Quote:

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TO: TFP SENIOR TEAM
FROM: TONY FABRIZIO & TRAVIS TUNIS
RE: POST-DEBATE BUMP FOR TRUMP; HARRIS FLAT
DATE: SEPTEMBER 12, 2024

Last night, we conducted a survey of 1,893 likely voters across our seven key target states. We found that despite the best efforts of Kamala Harris and media to portray the debate as some kind of overwhelming win for her, voters did not see it this way as support for her remained flat. The only change we saw was a 2-point bump for President Trump in both ballot configurations.

In last week's data (pre-debate) from our surveys (N=5,600) across our seven target states, both the full and head-to-head ballots were split dead even. In our post-debate data, President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 2-points, 48% - 46%, and in the head-to-head ballot, he is up 3-points, 50% - 47%. Clearly, target state voters were not impressed by Kamala Harris' empty platitudes and while the media would have people believe she is cruising to victory, this couldn't be farther from the truth.

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I believe that is his primary pollster.

The debate is a conundrum. Trump was the person everyone knows & either loves/hates. Kamal was OK but only relative to her expectations. People KNOW Trump lost because everyone saw what was left on the table and how badly he missed some opportunities Kamala gave him. That means that Kamala has problems on real issues so obvious that the average person can see them. That's why I'm so frustrated with Trump and that he lost his composure so quickly and wasn't able to get on track with the issues that matter. I'll still vote for him though because Kamala is still really bad on the issues and everyone knows it.

They definitely put it out there intentionally. I was making a joke about them putting confidential at the top of something they pushed out to everyone.

From my experience, campaigns don't typically put out internals unless they are concerned about how polling is looking. So, it is a bit concerning.

kag00 said:

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The debate is a conundrum. Trump was the person everyone knows & either loves/hates. Kamal was OK but only relative to her expectations. People KNOW Trump lost because everyone saw what was left on the table and how badly he missed some opportunities Kamala gave him. That means that Kamala has problems on real issues so obvious that the average person can see them. That's why I'm so frustrated with Trump and that he lost his composure so quickly and wasn't able to get on track with the issues that matter. I'll still vote for him though because Kamala is still really bad on the issues and everyone knows it.

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Fully agree. I was pretty upset with Trump on Tuesday night and thought he had blown it. But when I started reviewing my usual morning rat trail and rewatched the debate, I was gettng a much diiferent vibe than I anticipated. People were more pissed at her and the moderators (not necessarily in that order) than Trump.

Notice how after every question she broke out into a practiced speech. Shocking.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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They definitely put it out there intentionally. I was making a joke about them putting confidential at the top of something they pushed out to everyone.

From my experience, campaigns don't typically put out internals unless they are concerned about how polling is looking. So, it is a bit concerning.

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I think campaigns release internals depending on what they are trying to push. In this case, it's their usual pollster with quantities polled even shown (this is not something cheap to do in a quality way in a day). Realistically, it's a very good data set (probably would mean a lot more to see it in series but it's all we get) and likely just a look under the hood at their view of the battleground states (very good news).

Again, unless she's up 3-5 nationally, I wouldn't worry about any given swing state poll from a 'questionable' public polling source. The cross tabs are fantastic right now for Trump, pretty much across the board:

From Shipwrecked crew just now on x:

Quote:

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This is why data analysts continue to see big problems for Harris in the election and the electoral college -- huge margins in Blue states mask this problem in polling numbers.

From Ruy Texiera's latest column --

The latest New York Times/Siena poll has Harris trailing Trump among working-class (noncollege) voters by 17 points. That's identical to Biden's working-class deficit in the last NYT poll before he dropped out and way worse than Biden's deficit among these voters in 2020a mere 4 points.

More detailed NYT results reveal that Harris, relative to Biden in 2020, is doing 10 points worse among white working-class voters and 18 points worse among nonwhite working-class voters. The latter is despite considerable improvement for Harris among this demographic since Biden dropped out.

[Non-college voters] will be the overwhelming majority of eligible voters (around two-thirds) and, even allowing for turnout patterns, only slightly less dominant among actual voters (around three-fifths). Moreover, in all seven key swing statesArizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsinthe working-class share of the electorate, both as eligible voters and as projected 2024 voters, will be higher than the national average.

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Sorry if this one was posted today:

#New General election poll

🔴 Trump 49% (+2)
🔵 Harris 47%

Last poll - 🔴 Trump +1

Rasmussen #C - 2390 LV - 9/11

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 12, 2024

Rockdoc said:

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Hard to believe Harris went down 1 after the debate.

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Not really.
1. Most true "independents" realized how biased the debates were.
2. Most true "independents" realized heels up avoided answering questions about her policy.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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The Morning Compost poll was off by 4 in 2020.

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How off were their polls in mid September? Remember, their final polls tend to be closer than the polls early in the process.

Science Denier said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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The Morning Compost poll was off by 4 in 2020.

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How off were their polls in mid September? Remember, their final polls tend to be closer than the polls early in the process.

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It doesn't look like they did one in September. I only see April of 2020 (which showed Biden up 8) and their final poll from October which also had Biden up 8.

Reuters came out with a poll today that showed Harris up five points today as well. Their September 11-15, 2020 poll showed Biden up 9. Reuter's final poll right before the election had Biden up 4, making their final poll one of the more accurate pollsters compared to final results. They were all over during the election cycle however.

Rasmussen during this week in 2020 showed Trump up 1 over Biden.

First YouGov post debate poll

#New General election poll

🔵 Harris 46% (+1)
🔴 Trump 45%

Last poll - 🔴 Trump +2

YouGov (Times) #B - 1661 RV - 9/11

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 12, 2024

Polymarket has moved back to Harris as the betting favorite, 50-49