Muh Polls

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nortex97
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6:45a, 9/8/24
AG






Larry is always over-optimistic, imho, and I don't think he's right that the DNC-CCP would pull ad funding for Veepthroat after the debate, no matter what.

Bottom line though, is we are close enough to where ballot requests, when the states disclose the internal rates like this, can mean different things in different states of course but it's pretty much good news for Trump across the board, from ME, to NC, PA, and GA.

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nortex97
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7:04a, 9/8/24
AG
Geeze, this is really great: would be around 312+ in the EC, and Sienna is…anything but an R friendly poll.


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Quo Vadis?
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7:06a, 9/8/24
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 7:42a, 9/8/24
AG
Maybe a dumb question, but what does "rounded +2" mean? They rounded up from 1.5-1.9? Or something else?
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 8:18a, 9/8/24
Waffledynamics said:
Maybe a dumb question, but what does "rounded +2" mean? They rounded up from 1.5-1.9? Or something else?


Yes that it's 1.7 but just shows +1
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Quo Vadis?
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8:18a, 9/8/24


Obviously this crosses with his support among whites
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RangerRick9211
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 9:56a, 9/8/24
AG
Quo Vadis? said:


Democrats in panic mode over A+ rated NYT poll showing Trump as a rounded +2



Nate is about to talk his **** again on X. I'm here for it. He's been getting flak for two weeks with his prediction.

r/538, the only other place I play in, is a freaking out this morning. They've been high on the vibes and hopium discounting Nate and the sub-quality polls. Times/Sienna smacking everyone in the face (including me) today!

They are still contending that the polling is off.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to RangerRick9211 • 10:15a, 9/8/24
AG
RangerRick9211 said:
Quo Vadis? said:


Democrats in panic mode over A+ rated NYT poll showing Trump as a rounded +2



Nate is about to talk his **** again on X. I'm here for it. He's been getting flak for two weeks with his prediction.

r/538, the only other place I play in, is a freaking out this morning. They've been high on the vibes and hopium discounting Nate and the sub-quality polls. Times/Sienna smacking everyone in the face (including me) today!

They are still contending that the polling is off.

To be fair, the polling has been all over the place, especially for the Senate races.
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Philip J Fry
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10:18a, 9/8/24
AG
From RCP. Can you imagine the **** storm of winning PA and losing because of GA?
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 10:33a, 9/8/24
AG
Quo Vadis? said:
Waffledynamics said:
Maybe a dumb question, but what does "rounded +2" mean? They rounded up from 1.5-1.9? Or something else?


Yes that it's 1.7 but just shows +1
Oh, it's rounded down? I guess the optimism about that makes more sense. Thanks for the explanation.
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ttha_aggie_09
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 10:36a, 9/8/24
AG
Flip Nevada for Trump and that's a very realistic map. I still don't think he loses Georgia.
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rab79
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 10:36a, 9/8/24
AG
I thought Kemp was all in on Tump?
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Drahknor03
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In reply to rab79 • 10:39a, 9/8/24
AG
All in on pulling Trump across the finish line. He hates Trump personally, but needs Trump to win GA if Kemp wants to be President or run for Senate.
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Ag with kids
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 10:42a, 9/8/24
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Quo Vadis? said:
Waffledynamics said:
Maybe a dumb question, but what does "rounded +2" mean? They rounded up from 1.5-1.9? Or something else?


Yes that it's 1.7 but just shows +1
Oh, it's rounded down? I guess the optimism about that makes more sense. Thanks for the explanation.
It could have been 46.7% => 47% vs 48.4% => 48%

So, you see 47% vs 48% but the difference is really 1.7%, which is 2% rounded. I think that's what that +2 rounded meant.
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aggiehawg
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12:51p, 9/8/24
AG


The cross tabs are brutal for the Dems.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to aggiehawg • 1:30p, 9/8/24
AG
Quote:
Dem: Harris 93-4%
GOP: Trump 94-5%
Indie: Harris 48-44%
Those indie voters need to be more in Trump's favor, IMO. There are more Democrats than Republicans.
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will25u
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1:50p, 9/8/24

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aggiehawg
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3:19p, 9/8/24
AG
Quote:
Clinton lost the male vote to Trump in 2016 by 11 points, 41 percent to 52 percent, while she won the female vote by 13 points, 54 percent to 41 percent.
So that becomes the measuring stick. Let's see where we are now.

Quote:
New polling shows that male voters have shifted toward Trump and away from Harris in Pennsylvania, one of the biggest prizes of the 2024 electoral map.

A new CNN/SSRS poll showed Trump leading Harris among likely male voters in Pennsylvania by 15 points 55 percent to 40 percent and Harris leading Trump among female voters in the state by 11 points 53 percent to 42 percent.
Quote:
Male voters are also swinging hard to Trump and away from Harris in Nevada, according to the latest CNN/SSRS poll.

The new survey of likely voters in Nevada showed Trump with an 18-point lead among male voters, 57 percent to 39 percent, while Harris had a 16-point lead among female voters, 55 percent to 39 percent.
Quote:
Recent polling shows Trump getting the better of the gender divide in another swing state: North Carolina.

An East Carolina University poll conducted Aug. 26-28 among likely voters in the state found Trump leading by 9 points among male voters 51.6 percent to 42.8 percent and Harris leading by nearly 5 points among female voters 49.5 percent to 45.1 percent.
Quote:
In Georgia, Trump has a 10-point lead among male voters, 53 percent to 43 percent, and Harris has a 10-point lead among female voters, 53 percent to 43 percent, according to a CNN/SSRS survey.
Quote:
Even in California, a Democratic stronghold, a new survey by The Hill/Emerson College Polling shows Harris losing support among male voters, though she still maintains a sizeable lead over Trump among California's liberal-leaning men.

Male support for Harris has dropped substantially. The 30-point advantage she enjoyed among California male voters has dropped to a 20-point advantage.
Quote:
In Ohio, Trump now has a 26-point lead among men, far more than Harris's 3-point advantage with women, according to The Hill/Emerson poll. Trump's lead among male voters in Ohio has increased by 6 points since 2020.
Quote:
And in Florida, Trump has a 12-point lead among men while Harris has a 2-point lead among women, the survey showed. Trump had a 9-point advantage among male voters in the state in 2020.
The Hill

Thoughts?
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Sharpshooter
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In reply to aggiehawg • 3:24p, 9/8/24
AG
Keep the trend going.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to will25u • 4:57p, 9/8/24
[Analysis of polls is fine. Analysis of what you think other users are thinking is trolling. -Staff]
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Edited by Staff
FireAg
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5:02p, 9/8/24
AG
[This is not a pre-debate analysis thread. -Staff]
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rwpag71
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In reply to aggiehawg • 5:52p, 9/8/24
AG
I'm thinking Kamala is going to have to produce the greatest debate victory ever in the eyes of someone other than legacy media.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to SoyTanLento • 7:34p, 9/8/24
AG
SoyTanLento said:
Just a reminder don't trust the polls. Republicans crushed it in the RCP average right before the 2022 midterm elections. Here is how much Dems overperformed on elections day Nov 2022.

Wanted to bring the OP back up. There were some massively overperforming Democrats in the last go around. I get that Trump is on the ballot this time, but be prepared for these polls to be very wrong.

What has changed aside from the top of the ticket to ensure this doesn't happen again?
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Philip J Fry
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7:51p, 9/8/24
AG
Off year elections are notoriously hard to predict. What was the prediction on the number of voters going to the polls?

You're also welcome to wallow in your self despair and you seem to desperately want for us to suffer with you. I'll choose to believe that the American people are going to reject her extremism. They just need the opportunity to see it.
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2023NCAggies
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8:08p, 9/8/24
Polls trending for Trump. Masterful ran campaign

National average for Harris decreasing. And Trump outperformed polls by at least 3 last two elections

Blowout incoming. 313-225
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2023NCAggies
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9:25p, 9/8/24
Polls are trending Trump after 45 or so days of glorifying Harris like the Virgin Mary and they only got it to 1.8 before reversing.

They need it +4 going into election……….
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will25u
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9:27p, 9/8/24
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nortex97
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5:01a, 9/9/24
AG


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Captn_Ag05
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9:30a, 9/9/24
AG
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Prosperdick
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:38a, 9/9/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
So compared to 2020 Trump is doing better in 2024 in all those swing states with the exception of Georgia. Maybe if they fix the water pipes in Fulton county he can squeak out a victory in that state too.
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Captn_Ag05
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9:41a, 9/9/24
AG



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nortex97
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In reply to Prosperdick • 9:41a, 9/9/24
AG
And, Georgia is presently skewed by a Bloomberg and Fox News polls (1 ea.) which had her up 2, using RV's (not LV's), which came out almost 2 weeks ago (26th). It's close, but no way Harris is actually leading among Likely Voters in GA.
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Captn_Ag05
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9:45a, 9/9/24
AG
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Barnyard96
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In reply to Prosperdick • 10:03a, 9/9/24
AG
Some pollsters claiming they got the Trump curve figure out this cycle. Guess we'll see.
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DonHenley
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11:01a, 9/9/24
AG
Scott's senate race in FL is closer than I thought it would be. Any chance he might be in trouble?
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