Muh Polls

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agsalaska
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9:12p, 8/15/24
AG
I feel like, and I may be wrong, but I feel like the honeymoon is over for Harris. A large subsection of voters were quite literally just looking for someone not old and not named Trump and she delivered on that. That is what has tightened the race. Trump is a bad candidate with a low ceiling. I think we all know that, so anyone not named Biden was going to make this close.

But she has hit her peak now assuming she does not get some kind of random incident bump, a bump from her convention, or a bump from a debate. I do not see her getting a bump from either of the last two. She does not have a defendable record.

Fortunately for the Republicans they are now stuck with her.
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MemphisAg1
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In reply to agsalaska • 9:18p, 8/15/24
AG
Agree with a lot of that. A key question is how that influential slice of independent voters views her vs. Trump. When it was Biden, it was clear to them that Trump > Biden. With Biden out of the race, Trump's warts become more visible and he's suddenly not the clear favorite compared to her. I personally can't stand her, but I'm only one person in a sea of many million. For those voters who will determine the election, is it:

Trump>Harris>Biden?

or

Harris>Trump>Biden?

Hope it's the former. Time will tell soon enough.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to agsalaska • 9:20p, 8/15/24
AG
So you think Ron or whoever R would not be dealing with the same media and bull**** pollster elevation of queen harris?

Cmon man!
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agsalaska
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In reply to MemphisAg1 • 9:24p, 8/15/24
AG
Yep. That is the question. I think the fact that they are running two far left lunatics is meaningless to the Democrats not because they agree with their policies, but because they are not Trump. So both bases are now fully motivated.

It again comes down to the few percentage points in the middle.

I do wonder, in 2024, how much of a factor race and gender will have secretly in the ballot box. I do think Trump will do better among black men than any republican in recent memory and by a large margin. But I could see it work the other way with the beta Dem males. Maybe not.

But I do think question number one right now is how long can the Democrats hide Harris. To win the middle they will have to. Trump doesn;t have to win those as long as they just stay home.
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agsalaska
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 9:25p, 8/15/24
AG

Deleted
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MemphisAg1
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 9:26p, 8/15/24
AG
Barnyard96 said:
So you think Ron or whoever R would not be dealing with the same media and bull**** pollster elevation of queen harris?

Cmon man!
Same stuff, but whoever the alternate might have been wouldn't keep stepping on themselves like Trump does. He's his own worst enemy at times.

It's a moot point though. He's the guy for team red. Need him to stay on message. The fundamentals are in his favor. It's his to win or lose.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to agsalaska • 9:27p, 8/15/24
AG
"Trump is a bad candidate with a low ceiling. I think we all know that, so anyone not named Biden was going to make this close"

This
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agsalaska
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 9:30p, 8/15/24
AG


Deleted
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Barnyard96
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In reply to agsalaska • 9:38p, 8/15/24
AG
That 47% been there a while. R's once thought they'd never win another one.

Then Trump, the bad candidate mowed down the blue wall by tapping into a new group of voters and beat Hillary who was predicted to win a landslide.

Got hosed in 2020.

Then he destroyed the great candidate Ron.

So yes, I disagree with you.
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agsalaska
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 9:42p, 8/15/24
AG
Deleted
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Barnyard96
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In reply to agsalaska • 9:43p, 8/15/24
AG
Good one
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agsalaska
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 9:46p, 8/15/24
AG
Can we at least not get me and MemphisAgs posts deleted because of our extended conversation with the Trump supporter?

We were actually discussing the polling when he interjected about a comment that had nothing really to do with our post.

I apologize for responding to it. Should have known better. I will go back and deleted all of it.
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agsalaska
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In reply to agsalaska • 9:47p, 8/15/24
AG
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agsalaska
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In reply to agsalaska • 9:47p, 8/15/24
AG

Double post
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Barnyard96
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9:51p, 8/15/24
AG
I think Trump could change these national polls and thus his ceiling by campaigning in calif and NY. He could break that 47% stigma thats been plaguing the R party for decades.

With that momentum he could then solidify his support in the swing states and win this thing.
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TRM
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In reply to MemphisAg1 • 10:13p, 8/15/24
AG
MemphisAg1 said:
Agree with a lot of that. A key question is how that influential slice of independent voters views her vs. Trump. When it was Biden, it was clear to them that Trump > Biden. With Biden out of the race, Trump's warts become more visible and he's suddenly not the clear favorite compared to her. I personally can't stand her, but I'm only one person in a sea of many million. For those voters who will determine the election, is it:

Trump>Harris>Biden?

or

Harris>Trump>Biden?

Hope it's the former. Time will tell soon enough.
Seems like it's the latter at the moment

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IDaggie06
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In reply to TRM • 10:27p, 8/15/24
AG
TRM said:
MemphisAg1 said:
Agree with a lot of that. A key question is how that influential slice of independent voters views her vs. Trump. When it was Biden, it was clear to them that Trump > Biden. With Biden out of the race, Trump's warts become more visible and he's suddenly not the clear favorite compared to her. I personally can't stand her, but I'm only one person in a sea of many million. For those voters who will determine the election, is it:

Trump>Harris>Biden?

or

Harris>Trump>Biden?

Hope it's the former. Time will tell soon enough.
Seems like it's the latter at the moment



Such delusional idiot voters.
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nortex97
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7:15a, 8/16/24
AG
NY Post article discusses the racial breakdown of some polls/impact on Michigan in particular. One consequence of Merchan potentially throwing Trump in jail would be a surge of black support for Trump, imho.
Quote:
Black and Latino voters, however, have been shifting away from Democrats. Exit polls showed Biden beat Trump 92-7 with Michigan black voters, but the most recent New York Times-Siena poll showed Harris winning that demo by only 80-14.

That may not seem like a big difference, but blacks were 12% of the total electorate in 2020 per the exit poll. If Harris wins them by 20 points fewer than Biden, that alone would cut 2.4% off Biden's 2.8% statewide margin, reducing Harris' expected lead to a mere 0.4%.

Cutting her lead with Latinos and other nonwhite voters would do even more damage. They cast a combined 8% of the vote, with Latinos going 55-44 for Biden and other races backing him 66-30 roughly 61-36 combined.

The NYT/Siena poll had Harris winning by only 50-43 among Latinos and other nonwhites. Decreasing the Democrats' margin with other nonwhites from 25 to 7 points would, along with the drop in black support, flip the state to Trump if his share of the white vote stays constant.
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nortex97
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8:27a, 8/16/24
AG
Trump up on RMG research poll vs. previous one:

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McInnis 03
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11:48a, 8/16/24
AG
Emerson

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nortex97
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 11:55a, 8/16/24
AG
When Emerson shows Trump up in PA, you know he is doing well…or they are setting it up to show a big Harris surge after the Democrat-CCP convention next week.
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Quo Vadis?
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12:24p, 8/16/24
Trump needs to offer RFK Jr some sort of position as Health Czar or Ambassador to Switzerland or Turks and Caicos to get him to endorse him. We need those RFK votes.
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to nortex97 • 12:24p, 8/16/24
nortex97 said:
When Emerson shows Trump up in PA, you know he is doing well…or they are setting it up to show a big Harris surge after the Democrat-CCP convention next week.
The only thing that bothers me is Emerson had Oz up outside of the MoE on Fetterman if I remember correctly and Fetterman trounced him.
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nortex97
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 12:35p, 8/16/24
AG
Emerson has their fans…I am just not one of them, for a variety of analytic/personal reasons.

I do suspect, because it's a college-based group, there is more variability/subject to the kids working there vs. some other places. We're talking about a small (5000 students), somewhat elite (and expensive, around $80K a year) communications/arts college in Boston. It is what it is, imho.
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oh no
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1:39p, 8/16/24
AG
Again though, polls attempt to extrapolate a statistically meaningful sample of how registered or likely voters feel at a given time. These polls don't have anything built into their models to account for the harvesting operations for mass-mailed ballots. If the volume of mailings is significantly down post-pandemic, any integrity bills passed and controls implemented and enforced, and/or the funding is cut to the NGOs that harvest ballots, then some of the polls will end up being more accurate.
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DTP02
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In reply to agsalaska • 1:51p, 8/16/24
AG
agsalaska said:
I feel like, and I may be wrong, but I feel like the honeymoon is over for Harris. A large subsection of voters were quite literally just looking for someone not old and not named Trump and she delivered on that. That is what has tightened the race. Trump is a bad candidate with a low ceiling. I think we all know that, so anyone not named Biden was going to make this close.

But she has hit her peak now assuming she does not get some kind of random incident bump, a bump from her convention, or a bump from a debate. I do not see her getting a bump from either of the last two. She does not have a defendable record.

Fortunately for the Republicans they are now stuck with her.


I do think we should expect a post-DNC bump for Harris. Give it 10-14 days to subside and then we will really see what the lay of the land is.
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WestAustinAg
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1:58p, 8/16/24
AG
Most polls seemed to have taken a 10 day or 2 week hiatus of reporting.

When they came back the results looked 4 or so points stronger for Trump. But the averages in RCP still show those old polls which push the multi day average to look like Harris is still leading.

The only bad candidate in this race is the one that wears pant suits. And the American public has started to grow nautious of her campaign empty of anything but the simplest platitudes. With Trump and Kamala it is the outsider vs the consumate insider. The people vs the system.

And trump is 8-10 pts better than he was in 2020 or 2016. So this is looking like a small rout for him.
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agsalaska
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In reply to DTP02 • 2:23p, 8/16/24
AG
DTP02 said:
agsalaska said:
I feel like, and I may be wrong, but I feel like the honeymoon is over for Harris. A large subsection of voters were quite literally just looking for someone not old and not named Trump and she delivered on that. That is what has tightened the race. Trump is a bad candidate with a low ceiling. I think we all know that, so anyone not named Biden was going to make this close.

But she has hit her peak now assuming she does not get some kind of random incident bump, a bump from her convention, or a bump from a debate. I do not see her getting a bump from either of the last two. She does not have a defendable record.

Fortunately for the Republicans they are now stuck with her.


I do think we should expect a post-DNC bump for Harris. Give it 10-14 days to subside and then we will really see what the lay of the land is.


You k ow I thought about that. But I don't think the Democrats can pull off a successful convention right now. They have nothing to run on other than abortion and maybe Ukraine but that's not much.

But I do agree that we need to wait until after before coming to any conclusions.
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homebuildingag
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2:49p, 8/16/24
AG
There was a wonk on here in 2020 or 22 that worked either for a Repub or for a pollster, and he was was the only person that I can remember here shouting that the polls for that election were accurate. (I'm thinking it was the '20 presidential)

He took a whole mess of flack for saying the polls were correct and everyone comparing it to 16 were going to be in for a bad time. I'm wondering where that person is now and what kind of insight they could present.
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WestAustinAg
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2:51p, 8/16/24
AG


Good stuff here.
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Drahknor03
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In reply to homebuildingag • 3:00p, 8/16/24
AG
Except he was wrong. Biden won, but the polls were way wrong.
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agsalaska
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In reply to Drahknor03 • 3:13p, 8/16/24
AG
Drahknor03 said:
Except he was wrong. Biden won, but the polls were way wrong.


What polls? In 2020?

2020 was pretty close. Most polling was within the margin of error and actually slightly undercounted Trump support.
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Captn_Ag05
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5:35p, 8/16/24
AG


Second PA poll out today showing a slight Trump lead in the three way.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 5:57p, 8/16/24
Captn_Ag05 said:


Second PA poll out today showing a slight Trump lead in the three way.
A lot of polls that have come out the past 3 weeks were crap, and there still are being pushed out.

It was and is part of the MSM push to get Harris within striking distance of Trump.

She is starting to flat line and has barely just reached +1 national lead. She HAS to be at least +2 after her convention. And after the debates she has to be at least +4.

Absolute min. for her to win is +2 national.

The rust belt states will all be +/-4 for either candidate until election.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 6:20p, 8/16/24
AG
I figured Harris would lead the 3-way
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