Muh Polls

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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 5:36p, 8/14/24
2023NCAggies said:
50-49 Trump in latest Fox News poll. They usually lean Democrat in polling

So that is not good news at all for Harris. For Harris to even have a chance, I think she needs to be at least +2% in the national average



Sir these type of posts aren't allowed here
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Quo Vadis?
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5:45p, 8/14/24


Not even hiding it anymore. We are supposed to believe that Pittsburgh, which went 60-40 for Biden in 2020 is 35 points bluer with Harris and is now 73:18. What the hell are they doing
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Captn_Ag05
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6:40p, 8/14/24
AG








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Captn_Ag05
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6:41p, 8/14/24
AG
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 6:46p, 8/14/24
And here is the youguv breakdown.

They used a D+3 sample to get a Harris +2 result.
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Barnyard96
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7:45p, 8/14/24
AG

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TyHolden
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11:25p, 8/14/24
AG
Is RFK the difference? Who should cave to him for endorsement? Seems like never Trumpers love him. Not sure indies would vote for either.
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nortex97
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6:51a, 8/15/24
AG
Scott Rassmussen (RMG) seems to think the Harris honeymoon is indeed over and a shift as a result;

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LMCane
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 8:45a, 8/15/24
I was looking for the August 15 polls from 2020 and 2016 so thanks for posting!

that is really the ONLY good news Trump has

that he was down by 7 and down by 7 the last two times and barely lost

unless the polling is getting more accurate now
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LMCane
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:46a, 8/15/24
too bad that only Rasmussen is showing a Trump lead

so either he is the only one in the country that is running good polls

or he is just way off from the other 15 polling companies.
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Barnyard96
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8:48a, 8/15/24
AG
They send people text messages and ask them to click the link and answer questions.

Thats how the recent the emerson poll was done. How accurate can it be?

1000 people out of 150,000,000 voters
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Barnyard96
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In reply to LMCane • 8:49a, 8/15/24
AG
And Fox and Trafalgar
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nortex97
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In reply to LMCane • 9:07a, 8/15/24
AG
LMCane said:
too bad that only Rasmussen is showing a Trump lead

so either he is the only one in the country that is running good polls

or he is just way off from the other 15 polling companies.


You have to work real hard to find a set of polls which would lead one to think she is likely to win 270 ec votes. That national lv break point would be around Harris+5 or 7.
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Captn_Ag05
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9:09a, 8/15/24
AG
Pennsylvania polling trends are going the wrong direction.

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Quo Vadis?
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9:17a, 8/15/24
Harris has a major problem. Trump lost 79 electoral votes to Biden by a grand total of .16% of the votes cast in 2020 and that was with MASSIVE democrat friendly turnout due to covid voting rules.

If he holds on to what he has and flips traditionally red Arizona and Georgia, she has to run the table on Michigan/Wisconsin/PA. Even if she's a 70% heavy favorite; that's still only a 1/3 chance to run all 3.
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oh no
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 9:27a, 8/15/24
AG
Quo Vadis? said:
and that was with MASSIVE democrat friendly turnout due to covid voting rules.
tell me which states have reversed course from the 2020 covid scamdemic protocols in which absentee voting turned into a mass-mailing "most secure ever" exercise?

Certainly not PA or MI. Has GA or AZ done enough in their state houses to create a somewhat trustworthy reliable process?
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nortex97
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 9:29a, 8/15/24
AG
Quo Vadis? said:
Harris has a major problem. Trump lost 79 electoral votes to Biden by a grand total of .16% of the votes cast in 2020 and that was with MASSIVE democrat friendly turnout due to covid voting rules.

If he holds on to what he has and flips traditionally red Arizona and Georgia, she has to run the table on Michigan/Wisconsin/PA. Even if she's a 70% heavy favorite; that's still only a 1/3 chance to run all 3.


And Biden was something like 8 points ahead of her n this date nationally 4 years ago.
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Science Denier
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In reply to LMCane • 9:34a, 8/15/24
AG
LMCane said:
too bad that only Rasmussen is showing a Trump lead

so either he is the only one in the country that is running good polls

or he is just way off from the other 15 polling companies.
He's the only one not lying in order to try to influence an election.

Oops, "over sampling D's". Did I say that right?
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Captn_Ag05
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9:35a, 8/15/24
AG
My connections are still telling me Brown has a good shot in Nevada, so this poll result is a head scratcher.

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Captn_Ag05
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9:36a, 8/15/24
AG


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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to oh no • 9:48a, 8/15/24
oh no said:
Quo Vadis? said:
and that was with MASSIVE democrat friendly turnout due to covid voting rules.
tell me which states have reversed course from the 2020 covid scamdemic protocols in which absentee voting turned into a mass-mailing "most secure ever" exercise?

Certainly not PA or MI. Has GA or AZ done enough in their state houses to create a somewhat trustworthy reliable process?
There have been some good ones.

North Carolina is now requiring a photo ID to vote

Georgia has increased restrictions on mail voting and added ID requirements and limited the number of drop boxes. The biggest probably being that you can't just ask for a ballot online, you have to show up to get a mail in ballot.

Michigan is no longer mailing ballot applications to all registered voters which is huge, now you actually have to ask for one.

Pennsylvania- Allegheny county is now no longer autosending mail in ballot applications, and all ballots must be received by election day, even if they were postmarked beforehand (2020 law allowed them to be counted for up to 3 days past, as long as they were postmarked before the end).

Wisconsin is right in the middle of a legislative battle over dropboxes. The legislature had outlawed drop boxes and made it to where you had to turn in your own ballot, but the supreme court just overruled that, but it's still tangled up in courts.
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:52a, 8/15/24
One thing i've noticed that Polls are doing, is that they're nerfing the white voter % by a few percentages in every poll.

Even in 2020 with the massive increase in turnout, whites were still 68% of those that cast votes, and most polls are including them around 63-64%.

In 2022 73% of vote casters were white; so it could explain some of the strange numbers.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:00a, 8/15/24
AG
Had Biden at +6 in 2020
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 10:14a, 8/15/24
Quo Vadis? said:
Harris has a major problem. Trump lost 79 electoral votes to Biden by a grand total of .16% of the votes cast in 2020 and that was with MASSIVE democrat friendly turnout due to covid voting rules.

If he holds on to what he has and flips traditionally red Arizona and Georgia, she has to run the table on Michigan/Wisconsin/PA. Even if she's a 70% heavy favorite; that's still only a 1/3 chance to run all 3.
Omaha
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 10:27a, 8/15/24
Quo Vadis? said:
oh no said:
Quo Vadis? said:
and that was with MASSIVE democrat friendly turnout due to covid voting rules.
tell me which states have reversed course from the 2020 covid scamdemic protocols in which absentee voting turned into a mass-mailing "most secure ever" exercise?

Certainly not PA or MI. Has GA or AZ done enough in their state houses to create a somewhat trustworthy reliable process?
There have been some good ones.

North Carolina is now requiring a photo ID to vote

Georgia has increased restrictions on mail voting and added ID requirements and limited the number of drop boxes. The biggest probably being that you can't just ask for a ballot online, you have to show up to get a mail in ballot.

Michigan is no longer mailing ballot applications to all registered voters which is huge, now you actually have to ask for one.

Pennsylvania- Allegheny county is now no longer autosending mail in ballot applications, and all ballots must be received by election day, even if they were postmarked beforehand (2020 law allowed them to be counted for up to 3 days past, as long as they were postmarked before the end).

Wisconsin is right in the middle of a legislative battle over dropboxes. The legislature had outlawed drop boxes and made it to where you had to turn in your own ballot, but the supreme court just overruled that, but it's still tangled up in courts.
Republicans still control Wisconsin senate, which make the election laws or guidelines, that is the law, they make the decisions. Not the SC of Wisconsin.

Pennsylvania SC tried overruling their senate rules in 2020 but the US SC decided against the PA SC. Guess what? PA ignored the US SC and did what they weren't supposed to. Nothing happened.

IDK what can be done but the SC needs a enforcement wing or something
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dreyOO
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2:03p, 8/15/24
Checks and balances don't work with the commies running around
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LMCane
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 2:05p, 8/15/24
2023NCAggies said:
Nothing has really changed. Harris +1.1 in two way, +0.8 in 5 way. These are basically pre-debate numbers.

Literally nothing has changed. I think the only thing that has changed is Trump will have to do a little more campaigning in Georgia and NC. Still think Nevada and Arizona are easy wins for Trump with RFK on the ticket.

Rust belt is still the rust belt, neck and neck until election day. Hell it might all come down to Omaha lol Could yall imagine a 269 Trump tie and ultimately winning? Jesus, MSM meltdown would be epic.

But still sticking to my 313-225 Trump win

I would literally bet you a million dollars it will not be 313-225 Trump win.
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LMCane
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 2:18p, 8/15/24
Barnyard96 said:
And Fox and Trafalgar
Trafalgar is even more in the tank for Trump than Rasmussen

I watched Baris every day back in 2020 and turns out he was full of @#$@#$

very wrong in many states. I think he gets paid by the campaign.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to LMCane • 2:33p, 8/15/24
AG
So you're saying pollsters can have bias for a candidate?

Weird.
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nortex97
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In reply to LMCane • 2:46p, 8/15/24
AG
Baris was indeed trash.
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Captn_Ag05
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6:15p, 8/15/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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6:16p, 8/15/24
AG


Good poll for Trump.
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Jack Boyette
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In reply to LMCane • 6:35p, 8/15/24
LMCane said:
Barnyard96 said:
And Fox and Trafalgar
Trafalgar is even more in the tank for Trump than Rasmussen

I watched Baris every day back in 2020 and turns out he was full of @#$@#$

very wrong in many states. I think he gets paid by the campaign.

Hey buddy, why don't you show us how their methodology is flawed, instead of attacking them with ad hominem?
Then show us how the other polls you're reacting to are so good?
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Captn_Ag05
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6:36p, 8/15/24
AG
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 6:47p, 8/15/24
Captn_Ag05 said:


Good poll for Trump.


This is something that no one is talking about. For how "brat" and badass Kamala is, she's running well behind her down ballot party mates in all the swing states.
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