This seems a little over the top

I am well aware this country is majority moron but I never thought I would see the day where it voted a socialist and communist for president and vice president. Once that happens we are never going back.

I have a question (probably a dumb question) for our fellow libs,,,, do you truly align with a socialist agenda both socially and fiscally? If you do and are a card carrying commie then thats great-this is an agenda you are familiar with and relate to.

Or conversely are you the voter who just wants to make history with the first female president and whatever policy that is implemented so be it? After all, orange man bad!

Yeah, and #6 doesn't really jive with 1-5

Frank Luntz is highly over-rated. I still chuckle a little that he was Kevin McCarthy's room mate for a time.

Anyway, I am surprised to see the Slotkin Roger's senate race in Michigan as a toss up (but unsurprised they each won their primaries yesterday);

Quote:

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With the shifting tides of the Michigan electorate, the race is considered a toss-up.

Quote:

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Non-partisan political handicapper, the Cook Political Report, rated the open Senate seat as a "Toss Up." The race was originally thought to be "Lean Democratic" but was shifted shortly before President Biden exited the 2024 race.

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oh no said:

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Yeah, and #6 doesn't really jive with 1-5

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Rugg misquoted him. He said it was "Trump's to lose as it was seen that his admin was better than Biden", but he's made a series missteps, VP, bad quotes, etc.

TRM said:

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oh no said:

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Yeah, and #6 doesn't really jive with 1-5

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Rugg misquoted him. He said it was "Trump's to lose as it was seen that his admin was better than Biden", but he's made a series missteps, VP, bad quotes, etc.

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Vance is a great VP pick.

The narrative around Vance being a poor pick is such a media contrived talking point. They so desperately wanted him to be Palin but he's not and if you actually listen to him speak, especially unscripted, he has impressive insight and command of the dialogue.

Luntz's words not mine.

TRM said:

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Luntz's words not mine.

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Luntz is a troll.

Luntz says he feared for his safety when he attended Trump campaign rallies.

That's a helluva toupe, Frank.

Trump / Vance have done nothing to stop Kamala's momentum since Joe dropped out. Its only going to get worse after the DNC. Trump really needs to Kamala to stumble during the debates.

DonHenley said:

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Trump / Vance have done nothing to stop Kamala's momentum since Joe dropped out. Its only going to get worse after the DNC. Trump really needs to Kamala to stumble during the debates.

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No, not really.

She got a bounce after the announcement. Typical and expected.

Polls will continue to absorb the announcement bounce. DNC will help as well. Talk to me three weeks after the DNC and this wall be the time to worry or not.

And after she does interviews and debates. Most of this is a media facade.

🇺🇲 2024 GE: YouGov/Economist

🟦 Harris: 45% [-1]
🟥 Trump: 43% [-1]
🟨 RFK Jr: 2% [-1]
🟪 Other: 2%
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Generic Ballot
🟦 DEM: 45% [-1]
🟥 GOP: 44% [=]

[+/- change vs July 27-30]
——
Crosstabs
• Male: Trump 48-40%
• Female: Harris 50-39%
• Ages 18-29: Harris 58-27%
• Ages… pic.twitter.com/oHxeftrI4R

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 7, 2024

🇺🇲 2024 GE: @ActiVoteUS (with leans)

🟦 Harris: 50% [+1]
🟥 Trump: 50% [-1]
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🟦 Harris: 45% [+1]
🟥 Trump: 44% [-2]
🟨 RFK Jr: 11% [+1]

[+/- change vs July 24-29]

1,000 LV | July 30 - August 6 | ±3.1%https://t.co/fHhI7fpsJW pic.twitter.com/djnry2C47W

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 7, 2024

The Activote poll cross tabs actually looking really good for Trump. He would have an easy electoral college win with those results.

75% of black vote?

Much of the Kamala movement from Biden has been among young people. They were not excited to vote for Biden, but have come back to Kamala, as they likely would have any Democrat that wasn't a walking corpse. The Tiktok campaign appears to be working at the moment.

National poling trends among ages 18-29 by YouGov/Economist (#4)

July 16
🟦 Harris: 44% (+13)
🟥 Trump: 31%
.
July 23
🟦 Harris: 49% (+19)
🟥 Trump: 30%
.
July 30
🟦 Harris: 56% (+27)
🟥 Trump: 29%

August 6
🟦 Harris: 58% (+31)
🟥 Trump: 27% https://t.co/GN3qduzX3g pic.twitter.com/Mzn3a2rRjl

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 7, 2024

So why is there any reason for optimism when literally every poll that Capn posts shows Trump losing?

Hungry Ojos said:

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So why is there any reason for optimism when literally every poll that Capn posts shows Trump losing?

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Because it's August 7th?

Is it though?

Hungry Ojos said:

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Is it though?

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Because the devil is in the details of the polls. If you comb through them right quick, you can see the games they can play to make a specific voter 'poll better'

JDUB08AG said:

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The narrative around Vance being a poor pick is such a media contrived talking point. They so desperately wanted him to be Palin but he's not and if you actually listen to him speak, especially unscripted, he has impressive insight and command of the dialogue.

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Yeah, but he's really fat

Barring an unexpected strong third party performance, I think Kamala will have to win the national popular vote by 5 to win the electoral college. So a 1-2 point race in a national poll is not a bad sign to me.

I'm also more interested in how things are looking with different groups rather than the top line. For example, Wisconsin, compared to the other "blue wall " states, is more rural, more white, older, and men vote at the same rate as women, all of which favors Trump. Trump is doing better than 2020 with these groups in the current poling.

Some of the Wisconsin polls I've seen are underrepresenting rural whites. I think WI is his easiest path to 270, if he holds NC, and can keep his lead in AZ and GA.

Hungry Ojos said:

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So why is there any reason for optimism when literally every poll that Capn posts shows Trump losing?

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Because this time 4 years ago, Biden was up in the polls by 6.5%. So that's a 6pt swing in favor of Trump without taking into account Trump beating the polls by an average of 2.5% on election day.

oh no said:

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JUST IN: Pollster Frank Luntz says Kamala Harris is now the front runner in the election, says he would have picked Josh Shapiro over Tim Walz.

Solid points from @FrankLuntz.

1. Walz was a “safe choice” but Shapiro was a better candidate because of his PA roots.

2. Kamala… pic.twitter.com/78A3odUAv1

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) August 7, 2024

JUST IN: Pollster Frank Luntz says Kamala Harris is now the front runner in the election, says he would have picked Josh Shapiro over Tim Walz.

Solid points from @FrankLuntz.

1. Walz was a "safe choice" but Shapiro was a better candidate because of his PA roots.

2. Kamala Harris is now the front runner and has the momentum.

3. Walz is a 'good speaker, very presentable, knows the issues and mirrors her point of view.'

4. Kamala has the wind at her back and will get another bounce after the DNC.

5. Voters who simply weren't going to vote at all (for Biden because of his age) are now energized to vote for Harris.

6. 'This is Trump's election to lose.'

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Just don't buy this. I think while Shapiro delivers PA, Harris would have lost a lot of progressive votes and weakened her position significantly in Michigan and maybe even Minnesota. Imo it was a situation of choose Shapiro and lose Michigan for sure or choose Walz and still have a solid shot at winning both PA and Michigan while also keeping progressives and liberals engaged across the country.

Shapiro wants to run in 2028. He was never going to accept that spot.

This is a D+4, and Trump still manages a tie. It’s not a good place for Kamala to be to have to hope that the Democrat over-representation is accurate just to break even on popular vote. Even a tie is still an easy electoral win for Trump.

— M Brace (@MBrace777) August 7, 2024

Should start seeing some more accurate LV polls tomorrow thru Sunday I believe (more to the latter).

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Barring an unexpected strong third party performance, I think Kamala will have to win the national popular vote by 5 to win the electoral college. So a 1-2 point race in a national poll is not a bad sign to me.

I'm also more interested in how things are looking with different groups rather than the top line. For example, Wisconsin, compared to the other "blue wall " states, is more rural, more white, older, and men vote at the same rate as women, all of which favors Trump. Trump is doing better than 2020 with these groups in the current poling.

Some of the Wisconsin polls I've seen are underrepresenting rural whites. I think WI is his easiest path to 270, if he holds NC, and can keep his lead in AZ and GA.

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I agree with all of that.

If you would have told me a year ago Trump was going to be going up against Kamala and would be essentially tied in the popular vote polling I would have told you he wins 300+ EVs. And that hasn't changed.

Trump is still in the lead. This bump was to be expected.

agsalaska said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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Barring an unexpected strong third party performance, I think Kamala will have to win the national popular vote by 5 to win the electoral college. So a 1-2 point race in a national poll is not a bad sign to me.

I'm also more interested in how things are looking with different groups rather than the top line. For example, Wisconsin, compared to the other "blue wall " states, is more rural, more white, older, and men vote at the same rate as women, all of which favors Trump. Trump is doing better than 2020 with these groups in the current poling.

Some of the Wisconsin polls I've seen are underrepresenting rural whites. I think WI is his easiest path to 270, if he holds NC, and can keep his lead in AZ and GA.

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I agree with all of that.

If you would have told me a year ago Trump was going to be going up against Kamala and would be essentially tied in the popular vote polling I would have told you he wins 300+ EVs. And that hasn't changed.

Trump is still in the lead. This bump was to be expected.

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Nothing has happened the Trump Campaign didn't anticipate, except perhaps Kamala would cave to Islamo-Nazis and choose Tampon Tim. That was a gift.

This team Trump put in play is far superior to his previous campaign organizations. More internet/social media savvy and quicker to respond to trends and shifts than in 2020 and 2016.

JUST IN: Kamala Harris is on the verge of flipping to be the favorite for the 2024 election on political betting website Polymarket.

Harris' odds to win have reached an all-time high as she closes in on 50%.

Here is where the Polymarket toss-up state odds stand:

Wisconsin:… pic.twitter.com/0HFq7xC210

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) August 7, 2024

all without a single interview or question since she's become the nom appointee

How badly could Trump lose the popular vote by and win the EC? Lost it by 2% in 2016 and by 4.5% in 2020. 2.5-3% depending how certain state shake out?

DonHenley said:

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How badly could Trump lose the popular vote by and win the EC? Lost it by 2% in 2016 and by 4.5% in 2020. 2.5-3% depending how certain state shake out?

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That would be my guess.

DonHenley said:

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How badly could Trump lose the popular vote by and win the EC? Lost it by 2% in 2016 and by 4.5% in 2020. 2.5-3% depending how certain state shake out?

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I would guess it would be fairly similar to his performance against Hilldawg. Before Biden's spontaneous combustion on national TV, there was some talk that he might be overperforming amongst Rust Belt, non-college whites versus the general population, but that presumably wouldn't apply to Harris.

My prior would be that Trump has an EC advantage of about 2 points, unless proven otherwise.